...LVMH: King of the Luxury Jungle SEPTEMBER 2009 Profit from temporary W&S woes to bag the stock at discount prices LVMH is the strongest player in the luxury goods industry, a giant in an industry where fixed costs make scale paramount; the only "two-legged" balanced player, leading with mega-brands in both Leather Goods and Wines & Spirits; enjoying stable group EBIT margins as a consequence Champagne consumer demand weakness, de-stocking and oversupply in 2010 are well understood; W&S concerns have depressed the stock close to 20-year trough multiples and in the same range of smaller and more volatile hard luxury players and other peers; an opportunity in our view On top of LVMH's unrivaled industry position, markets seem to under-appreciate cost-saving opportunities, brand-portfolio rationalization, higher FCF from lower W&S inventory investment, above-average mega-brands' results or support from first-mover EM inroads In a medium-term growth environment, LVMH has the chance to be a key consolidator in the luxury goods industry: a mega-merger with CFR would be a strategic master stroke, placing it ahead of any M&A counter move by competitors SEE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX OF THIS REPORT FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LVMH: KING OF THE LUXURY JUNGLE 1 Portfolio Manager's Summary We have few doubts about the opportunity of investing in LVMH for the medium to long term. We expect "winners will continue to win" in the luxury industry...
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