...Demographic Transition Santoya Rodriguez Environmental Science April 5, 2013 Demographic Transition Introduction Demography is a science that rarely makes general theories. Demographic transition refers to the logical sequence of historical phases every population passes as they become modernized (Azia, n.d). The basic principle of demographic transition is that there is an informal connection between modernization and a decline in fertility and mortality. In other words, as societies progress from pre-modernized to a modernized society they experience lower death and lower birth rates. Most of human history was characterized by high crude death rates (CDR). In fact, they averaged 40 or per thousand in most populations. High CDR was caused by a number of factors; however, epidemics and other social conditions were the most common causes. However, as seen in North America and Europe during the 19th century, as epidemics and other social conditions are improved, death rates decline. This particular pattern of change in mortality factors is called the epidemiologic transition, which represents one aspect of the demographic transition (Wright & Boorse, 2011). Four Phases of Demographic Transition In Phase I of demographic transition, a population is characterized by high CBR that is being controlled by equally high CDR. It is known as the most primitive of the phases because there is a high fluctuating CBR and CDR, which results in little to no population growth (Azia, n.d)...
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... P.M.B 0182, GOMBE FACULTY OF HUMANITIES, MANAGEMENT AND SOCIAL SCIENCE COURSE CODE; 4303 COURSE TITLE; DEMOGRAPHY ASSIGNMENT QUESTION; Brief Explanation of Demographic Transition Theory GROUP (5) MEMBERS FUK/HMSS/12B/SOC/1042 FUK/HMSS/12B/SOC/1043 FUK/HMSS/12B/SOC/1044 Course lecturer; PROF. UMAR BAPPAH TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2. Demographic transitional theory 3. Stages of demographic transitional theory 4. Criticisms of demographic transitional theory 5. Summary of demographic transitional theory 6. References INTRODUCTION Demographic transition (DT) refers to the transition from high birth and death rate to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. This is typically demonstrated through a demographic transition theory. The theory is based on an interpretation of demography history developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973) Thompson observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the previous 200 years. Most developed countries are in stage 3 or 4 of the model; the majority of developing countries have reached stage 2 or stage 3. The major (relative) exceptions are...
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...still growing and developing economically, socially, politically and culturally. Currently, it is faced with poverty, illiteracy, and infant mortality, underdevelopment, overpopulation and corruption. In spite of that, India is one of the world’s fastest growing economies and is finding its place on the Global stage. Demography plays a vital role in determining a country’s stand in terms of economic, social and cultural development. Currently, the major theme in Indian demography is its transition. In my paper, I will discuss India’s demography and analyze the various reasons for why it is such. I will also talk about the consequent implications the current demographic characteristics have on Indian society. India gained its independence from the British Empire on 15th August, 1947. What followed immediately after independence was the beginning of a tragic, violent and turbulent phase in India’s history. India was partitioned into two nation states – India and Pakistan. There were mass migrations, voluntary and involuntary, from one country to another. It was one of the largest migrations to be recorded in human history. An estimated 14.5 million people migrated within four years, mostly, along religious lines (Bharadwaj, Khwaja & Mian). Most of the Muslims migrated from India to Pakistan and many Hindus and Sikhs migrated to India from Pakistan. This large scale migration set the precedent for India’s current demographic conditions. As stated above, India...
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...This dissertation investigates how changes in policies, technology, and lifestyles affect individual's decisions about their health, well-being, and life choices. The dissertation primarily focuses on two questions within this topic: i) the effects of greater affordability of assisted reproductive technology (ART) on women's marriage and fertility timing decisions and ii) the effects of time spent working on individual's obesity and health status and the mechanisms contributing to these effects. In two chapters, I examine whether greater affordability of ART has impacted women's fertility and marriage choices. ART consists of medical technologies that help women and couples with fertility problems conceive a child using such methods as in-vitro fertilization (IVF). Since the percentage of women facing infertility increases greatly with age, by making it affordable for women to delay family formation and then use ART to start families later if they face infertility, greater affordability of ART could induce women to delay marriage and childbearing. To formally identify channels through which greater affordability of ART might impact women's decisions about timing of family, I develop theoretical models of greater affordability of ART and women's allocation of time on work and family investment over the life course. To test the implications of the models, I utilize empirical strategies exploiting variation in the mandated insurance coverage of ART across U.S. states and over time...
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...History & heritage: origins of poverty The causes of poverty are quite overwhelming at first glance: from colonialism to industrialization, from political institutions to geography, corruption and so on. But they are extremely interesting to look at if you want to better understand how so many countries are where they are today. Each cause is rooted in a radically different phenomenon and each needs a specific solution. Heritage is unquestionably an essential factor among the causes of poverty. Colonization & slavery Most countries that started their modern history with great inequalities evolved into societies that often maintained such pattern of biased wealth distribution. And conversely for countries that began with more or less equal societies. So, countries that experienced colonization and slavery often had trouble getting rid of the inherited institutions and discrimination. Others like Canada or the US on the other hand have been doing much better since then. In the case of colonized countries such as Brazil, South Africa or the Caribbean islands, the remaining white population often inherited ownership of capital and means of production once the country became independent. “Poverty is the consequence of plunder. Behind every single form of modern poverty, you find the use of force.” (Dr. Oscar Guardiola-Rivera) The colonial influence 6 The role of resources and geography The former colonies in Latin America were exploited to export their...
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...Growth David E. Bloom January 2011 PGDA Working Paper No. 65 http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/working.htm The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Harvard Initiative for Global Health. The Program on the Global Demography of Aging receives funding from the National Institute on Aging, Grant No. 1 P30 AG024409-06. 1 Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth1 David E. Bloom Harvard School of Public Health January 2011 Keywords: Age structure China-India comparison Conditional convergence Demographic dividend Demographic transition Economic growth Economic growth in India Policy reform Population health Population of India Abstract Demographic change in India is opening up new economic opportunities. As in many countries, declining infant and child mortality helped to spark lower fertility, effectively resulting in a temporary baby boom. As this cohort moves into working ages, India finds itself with a potentially higher share of workers as compared with dependents. If working-age people can be productively employed, India’s economic growth stands to accelerate. Theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of demographics on labor supply, savings, and economic growth underpins this effort to understand and forecast economic growth in India. Policy choices can potentiate India’s realization of economic benefits stemming from demographic change. Failure to take advantage of the opportunities...
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...Survive?) Influenced by Soviet ideas, India was the first country to have an official population control policy in 1951. While the numbers would say that the policy hasn’t been successful, India has a population of 1.25 billion, the country has, by serendipity or by plan, reached a stage where the potential of its large population and the structure of it has become an important weapon in the country’s growing economic arsenal. The Demographic dividend, as this weapon is popularly called, depends on the make-up of the population, particularly on the dependency ratio, which is the number of dependents in a population (Age 0-14 and 65 above) as a part of the working population. As of 2015 this ratio stands at 0.52 1 and with declining fertility and child mortality rates this could fall as low as 0.48 in the next decade. What this number promises is lesser and lesser number of individuals to take care of for every working age individual. It promises a greater...
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...Getting and Staying Active in Later Life On the occasion of International Day of Older Persons, ASM ATIQUR RAHMAN discusses the plight and prospects of ageing in 21st century Bangladesh. Old age is neither a disease nor an individual problem; rather, it has become a worldwide challenge that must be addressed globally. "Later life" is unavoidable, inevitable, universal and excessively troublesome. No one can stop the process of ageing. The quality of life and the rate of ageing both vary considerably depending on a number of factors such as education, occupation, purchasing capacity, lifestyle, food habit, residential location, belief and culture, etc. Surprisingly, ageing takes place within the context of family members, kin, neighbours, friends, work associates and the state. Lifelong preparations, making intergenerational linkages, using appropriate technology, developing right-based societal relationships, upholding religious values at the personal level, political commitment and governmental undertaking at the macro-level can help ensure a healthy ageing and active later life. Policy responses to ageing until now have tended to focus only on the provision of medical care and income security for older persons, which remain important but have been inadequate compared to the rate of ageing occurring now and projected to intensify in the coming decades. Population ageing is a by-product of scientific development in human societies bound to remain a dominant social...
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...GLOBALIZATION AND PUBLIC HEALTH Although, recently there is a growing literature on the importance of globalization for health, the term globalization has for long been used in academic discourse, particularly within the social and political science but relatively new in the discussion within public health. While the processes of globalization are far from straight forward, the concept of health is as well a complex one, which result into no consensus either on the pathways and mechanism through which globalization affects the health of population or on the appropriate policy responses (woodward et al 2001). However, there has been a significant increase interest on the issue of globalization within public health, although a contested one, since authors on public health are still undecided not only on the exact conclusion on the impact of globalization on public health, whether bad or good, but also as to whether globalization has actually cemented its place in the public health lexicon. Nevertheless, it is know that a broad-based public health should take note of significant economic, political and social changes that determine and shape people’s health, and this definitely will call for a proper theoretical approach to globalization in understanding the nature of these contemporary economic, political and social changes (Stuart McClean in Orme et. al. 2007). This essay will describe the relationship between globalization and public health. It will first begin, by exploring...
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...WORKING P A P E R Demographic Trends, Policy Influences, and Economic Effects in China and India Through 2025 JULIE DAVANZO, HARUN DOGO, AND CLIFFORD A. GRAMMICH WR-849 April 2011 This product is part of the RAND National Security Research Division working paper series. RAND working papers are intended to share researchers’ latest findings and to solicit informal peer review. They have been approved for circulation by RAND National Security Research Division but have not been formally edited or peer reviewed. Unless otherwise indicated, working papers can be quoted and cited without permission of the author, provided the source is clearly referred to as a working paper. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. is a registered trademark. Preface In this paper we compare the recent and likely future demographic situations in China and India and their implications. This is a background paper for the chapter, “Population Trends in China and India: Demographic Dividend or Demographic Drag?. in the RAND report, China And India, 2025: A Comparative Assessment, MG-1009OSD, by Charles Wolf, Jr., Siddhartha Dalal, Julie DaVanzo, Eric V. Larson, Alisher R. Akhmedjonov, Harun Dogo, Meilinda Huang, and Silvia Montoya, and contains some of material referenced therein. The RAND report was done under the sponsorship of the Office of Net Assessment with the objective of understanding how China and India will compare to one...
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...Population-Control-Policies and their Implications for Economic Growth in China Bachelor’s Thesis supervised by the Department of Economics at the University of Zurich Prof. Dr. Fabrizio Zilibotti to obtain the degree of Bachelor of Arts in Economics Author: Noemi Schramm Course of Studies: Economics Closing date: August 17, 2011 Abstract This bachelor thesis is giving an overview on previously performed research how family-planning-policies in China (explicitly the so-called One-Child-Policy) have affected economic growth since 1979 and tries to give possible predictions and forecasts on how it could affect economic growth until 2050 through critical model analysis. The Solow model gives theoretical answers but also yields analytical results through calculations subject to different population development scenarios (low, middle, high growth rates). The dependency ratio as a measurement of population age structure is analyzed and implemented into the Solow model to help understand the influence of family-planning-policies. It is shown that the One-Child-Policy affected heavily the last 32 years of China’s economic development and will continue to affect its future, but according to the calculations in this paper, the impact changes from a positive one to a negative one. Acknowledgements I would like to thank Professor Fabrizio Zilibotti for his supervision and for giving me the opportunity to write my thesis at his chair. Especially I would like to thank Yikai Wang for...
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...EC2B02U DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS 1. a) b) c) What is a paradigm? It is a diagram of development. It is the way development takes place. It is a thinking model providing a holistic picture of a process involving a network of interrelationships. 2. a) b) c) Paradigm thinking is necessary to avoid dealing with isolated factors of development help analyzing cause and effect of phenomena identify urgent action 3. Economic growth is not a sufficient condition of development, because a) it does not help poverty reduction b) a country must also have an educated workforce c) there are several other aspects of development 4. a) b) c) Economic growth is pivotal, because it is easier to achieve than the other aspects of development it has a symbiotic link with the other aspects of development it helps generate savings for investment 5. a) b) c) GDP is not a sufficient indicator of development because, some economic activities are left out of the calculation large countries have bigger GDP it does not reflect how income is distributed 6. a) b) c) GDP per capita is a useful indicator because, it helps inter country comparison of living standards it helps to understand what each individual earns in a country it is a better indicator than total GDP 7. a) b) c) To make GDP per capita internationally comparable, they must be calculated in US$ they should be calculated in the strongest international currency ...
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...be sought in various health theories or models. One of these is ‘life course model’ which offers an interdisciplinary framework for guiding research on health, human development and aging. Life course epidemiology is defined as the study of long term effects on later health or disease risk of physical or social exposures during gestation, childhood, adolescence, young adulthood and later adult life (Kuh and Hardy 2002). The aim is to elucidate biological, behavioural, and psychosocial determinants of health that operate across an individual’s life course, or across generations, to influence the development of disease risk. Combining the definition, quantifiers and determinants, if health trends are to be evaluated there has been a major transition in health status and its indicators. An Upside Trend Life expectancy has seen an upward trend worldwide. In the UK, for England and Wales, the Human Mortality Database or HMD shows that life expectancy at birth and at age 65 have increased for both males and females from 1841 to...
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...PSYC 2020 Student Number: 782793 Submission date: 05/05/2015 Assignment Topic: In South Africa, teenage pregnancy is on rise as a result of how these teenagers make sense of their sexuality. In South African adolescent marks the transition from childhood to adulthood, which in some instances is filled with a period of opportunities, challenges, changes, skills, pressures and physical, cognitive and psychosocial development. Teenagers are faced with an immense amount of peer pressure, physiological and emotional changes, sexual experimentation that increases the risk of pregnancy or sexually transmitted disease. While many teenagers may engage in pre-marital sex some never become pregnant. Teenage pregnancy has become all too common in this day and age. Some teenagers think it will not happen to them and do not use necessary precautions to protect themselves against pregnancy. There are several causes for teen pregnancy and the effects can be life changing. Research done has indicated that there is not one single cause to teenage pregnancy, but there are whole host of causes to this pandemic. Factors that can contribute to the number of teenagers who fall pregnant are for example, gender power imbalances (associated with significantly older partners in particular), early sexual debut, barriers to contraceptive use (seldom used at sexual initiation), and misinformation on sexual health matters. Pregnancy at a very young age may result in pregnancy complications that...
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...one would break the news to their parents might be even greater, and finding help may seem an impossible task. People might think that they can help others, or one might be too embarrassed to search for help. For the most part, when one sees teenagers raising children, we often think that the teen has been raped or is too mature for their age. For this reason, some totally miss the issues that one must have been exposed to in their society, the society of their home, community, school. There are many viewpoints as to why teenage females are having so many children out of wedlock. However, the facts are obvious—teenaged females are highly influenced by many social issues, but those with the lack of strong parental guidance, sex education, and positive mass media are more likely to have a premarital pregnancy. As one travels the globe, they will find that industrialized and developing countries have distinctly different rates of teenage pregnancy. In the online article, “Teen Pregnancy on the Rise,” Sipokazi Maposa says that in developed countries, teenage pregnancies are associated with many social issues: lower educational levels, higher rates of poverty, and no strong parental guidance in the teenagers life. Maposa discusses the challenges which teens in Africa face as the teenage pregnancy rate increase. She contributes a wealth of information as to why teens have children at such a young age. Maposa suggests that...
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