MAT 540 Week 4 Discussions Please respond to the following: * Choose one of the forecasting methods and explain the rationale behind using it in real-life.
Adjusted exponential smooth is the exponential smoothing forecast with a trend factor added to it. It can adjust with the trend factor (Beta) with a high beta reflecting changes more than a low beta. In real life example such as forecasting computer sales based on at least one year of sales data helps management. By using exponential smoother factor (alpha) we will react and adjust more slowly as the value reaches 0. As alpha gets higher we will have a more positive effect on demand and the forecast will be for an increase. The initial smoothing constant alpha and the trend factor beta are set by the manager with a value from 0 to 1. It is adjusted accordingly and a comparison of the results is use in the forecast.

* Describe how a domestic fast food chain with plans for expanding into China would be able to use a forecasting model.
When a fast food chain plans to expand into china the use of forecasting methods will greatly enhance the company’s chances of success. For instance, they include integrated information system and real time exchange of information with its suppliers. Demand can be based on information of its demand for locations with at least 12 months of sales data. A labor management system could also use forecasting methods.

What is the difference between a causal model and a time- series model? Give an example of when each would be used.
The difference between time series model and regression or causal methods is that in time series time is the only variable and forecasts are based on what has happened in the past will try predict what will happen in the future. In regression methods the data is compared mathematically to other variables that have a created a cause or have had an