Outline
 Global Company Profile: Tupperware
 What is Forecasting?
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Forecasting Time Horizons
The Influence of Product Life Cycle

 Types of Forecasts
 The Strategic Importance of Forecasting
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Human Resources
Capacity
Supply-Chain Management

 Seven Steps in the Forecasting System
4-2

Outline - Continued
 Forecasting Approaches
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Overview of Qualitative Methods
Overview of Quantitative Methods

 Time-Series Forecasting
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Decomposition of Time Series
Naïve Approach
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment
Trend Projections
Seasonal Variations in Data
Cyclic Variations in Data
4-3

Outline - Continued
Associative Forecasting Methods:
Regression and Correlation Analysis
Using Regression Analysis to Forecast
 Standard Error of the Estimate
 Correlation Coefficients for Regression Lines
 Multiple-Regression Analysis
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Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts
Adaptive Smoothing
 Focus Forecasting
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Forecasting in the Service Sector
4-4

Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter, you should be able to :
Identify or Define:
Forecasting
 Types of forecasts
 Time horizons
 Approaches to forecasts


4-5

Learning Objectives - continued
When you complete this chapter, you should be able to :
Describe or Explain:
Moving averages
 Exponential smoothing
 Trend projections
 Regression and correlation analysis
 Measures of forecast accuracy
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4-6

Forecasting at Tupperware
Each of 50 profit centers around the world is responsible for computerized monthly, quarterly, and 12-month sales projections
These projections are aggregated by region, then globally, at Tupperware’s World
Headquarters
Tupperware uses all techniques discussed in text 4-7

Three Key Factors for