Assignment on Demand Forecasting:
Hamza Imam Ansari
Erp#10040

Q#1)
S t = 12.70 + 1.415t 2007 to 2012 Year= 6 Qtr= 24 2013 will start from 25
Qtr# 1) 12.70 + 1.415*(25) = 48.075 Qtr# 2) 12.70 + 1.415*(26) = 49.49
Qtr# 3) 12.70 + 1.415*(27) = 50.905 Qtr# 4) 12.70 + 1.415*(28) = 52.32
Q#2)
Ln Sn = 3.51 + 0.037t
Sn = e 3.51 + e 0.037 t
Sn = 33.45 + 1.038t
Qtr#1) 33.45 + 1.03825 = 35.991 Qtr#2) 33.45 + 1.03826 = 36.087
Qtr#3) 33.45 + 1.03827 = 36.187 Qtr#4) 33.45 + 1.03828 = 36.291
Q# 3)
Y = 130.96 + 1.06 D2 – 1.57 D3 + 2.71 D4 + 43.88t
Qtr# 1) Y = 130.96 +43.88 (25) = 1227.96
Qtr #2) Y = 130.96 + 1.06 + 43.88(26) = 1272.90
Qtr #3) Y = 130.96 – 1.57 + 43.88(27) = 1314.15
Qtr #4) Y = 130.96 + 2.71 + 43.88(28) = 1362.31

Q#4a)

RMSE= SQRT of ( sum of (A-F)2 / n.o of years)
3 MOV AVG = SQRT(2797.667/9) = 17.63
5 MOV AVG = SQRT(3785.4/7) = 23.25
SO 3 Moving Average has given the better answer.
b) 3 Moving Average has given the better answer.

c)

RMSE= SQRT of ( sum of (A-F)2 / n.o of years)
0.4 Weightage= SQRT(3102.247/12) = 16.078
0.5 Weightage= SQRT(2728.635/12) = 15.079
So we will choose 0.5 weightage result.
Case Study # 2 Pg # 259 1) Model T was the first affordable car produced by the Henry Ford’s Ford Motor Company since its commencement. It was the first car launched by the Henry Ford to target middle class people and it was the first car which was produced in a large quantity in contrast to previous models which were launched as prototype.
And now Mr. Mullaly is thinking in the same manner to come up with a economical passenger car model rather than new expensive sports car or truck model. Which will be manufactured in mass production and made available globally with limited variation to cater the changes in taste in different countries.
So in both situations