...Introduction to Management Science, 10e (Taylor) Chapter 15 Forecasting 1) A trend is a gradual, long-term, up or down movement of demand. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: trend, forecasting components 2) A seasonal pattern is an up-and-down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: seasonal pattern, forecasting components 3) Random variations are movements that are not predictable and follow no pattern. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: random variations, forecasting components 4) The basic types of forecasting methods include time series, regression, and qualitative methods. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 683 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: types of forecasting methods 5) Time series is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 683 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: time series analysis 6) Regression methods attempt to develop a mathematical relationship between the item being forecast and factors that cause it to behave the way it does. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 683 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: regression methods 7) Qualitative methods use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make...
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... 13 Chapter 13 • Forecasting Forecasting TRUE/FALSE 1. The repeated observations of demand for a product or service in their order of occurrence form a pattern known as a time series. Answer: True Reference: Demand Patterns Difficulty: Easy Keywords: time series, repeated observations 2. One of the basic time series patterns is trend. Answer: True Reference: Demand Patterns Difficulty: Easy Keywords: time series, pattern, trend 3. One of the basic time series patterns is random. Answer: True Reference: Demand Patterns Difficulty: Easy Keywords: time series, pattern, random 4. Random variation is an aspect of demand that increases the accuracy of the forecast. Answer: False Reference: Demand Patterns Difficulty: Easy Keywords: random variation, forecast accuracy 5. Aggregation is the act of clustering several similar products or services. Answer: True Reference: Key Decisions on Making Forecasts Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: aggregation, clustering 6. Aggregating products or services together generally decreases the forecast accuracy. Answer: False Reference: Key Decisions on Making Forecasts Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: aggregation, forecast accuracy 54 Copyright ©2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Chapter 13 • Forecasting 7. Judgment methods of forecasting are quantitative methods that use historical data on independent variables to predict demand. Answer: False Reference:...
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...The Importance of Accurate Demand Forecasting An Analysis of VMU America Inc. Christopher Chun & William McMahan Oakland University Abstract Most strategic business decisions, such as financial planning and production management, rely heavily on forecasts that attempt to paint an accurate picture of the future periods. Ineffective forecasting can lead businesses to improper conclusions about the environment in which they operate. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effectiveness of VMU Power Systems’ forecasting methods on production demand. Once the type/s of forecasting used is identified, a closer look highlights the fact that improvements to their methods could put the company in a better position to handle their current market demand. The underlying issue is that they are not including all of their products & services in their data set, or more simply put, they are basing their decisions off of incomplete data. This is causing their forecasted results to be far below the actual demand resulting in a lack of resources to produce at the levels required. Other research has been cited throughout this paper to further support the claims that it is possible for VMU to forecast their type of intermittent demand. There are two main recommendations made at the end of this analysis that, if implemented, could improve the accuracy of their models. The first suggestion is to use the SBA forecasting method on their after-sales demand. The second recommendation...
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...The type of forecasting method used depends entirely whether the supply chain is continuous replenishment or not. Question 1 options: | 1) | True | | 2) | False | Hide Check my answer | | Time Series Methods | ------------------------------------------------- Question 2 The Delphi method generates forecasts based on informed judgments and opinions from knowledgeable individuals. Question 2 options: | 1) | True | | 2) | False | Hide Check my answer | | Components of Forecasting Demand | ------------------------------------------------- Question 3 The larger the mean absolute deviation (MAD) the more accurate the forecast. Question 3 options: | 1) | True | | 2) | False | Hide Check my answer | | Forecast Accuracy | ------------------------------------------------- Question 4 A gradual, long-term up or down movement of demand is called a trend. Question 4 options: | 1) | True | | 2) | False | Hide Check my answer | | Components of Forecasting Demand | ------------------------------------------------- Question 5 Sharing demand forecasts with supply chain members has resulted in an increased bullwhip effect. Question 5 options: | 1) | True | | 2) | False | Hide Check my answer | | The Strategic Role of Forecasting | ------------------------------------------------- Question 6 The demand behavior for skis is considered cyclical. Question 6 options: | 1) | True | | 2) | False | Hide Check my answer | ...
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...FORECASTING FUNDAMENTALS Forecast: A prediction, projection, or estimate of some future activity, event, or occurrence. Types of Forecasts * Economic forecasts * Predict a variety of economic indicators, like money supply, inflation rates, interest rates, etc. * Technological forecasts * Predict rates of technological progress and innovation. * Demand forecasts * Predict the future demand for a company’s products or services. Since virtually all the operations management decisions (in both the strategic category and the tactical category) require as input a good estimate of future demand, this is the type of forecasting that is emphasized in our textbook and in this course. TYPES OF FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on judgments, opinions, intuition, emotions, or personal experiences and are subjective in nature. They do not rely on any rigorous mathematical computations. Quantitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on mathematical (quantitative) models, and are objective in nature. They rely heavily on mathematical computations. QUALITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative Methods ...
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...CHAPTER SEVEN Discussion Questions 1. What role does forecasting play in the supply chain of a build-to-order manufacturer such as Dell? Although Dell builds to order, they obtain PC components in anticipation of customer orders and therefore they rely on forecasting. This forecast is used to predict future demand, which determines the quantity of each component needed to assemble a PC and the plant capacity required to perform the assembly. 2. How could Dell use collaborative forecasting with its suppliers to improve its supply chain? Collaborative forecasting requires all supply chain partners to share information regarding parameters that might affect demand, such as the timing and magnitude of promotions. Dell could share with their components suppliers all of the promotions, e.g., holiday, back-to-school, etc., they have planned. These suppliers could, in turn, notify their suppliers of discrete components that a spike in demand is anticipated. These demand forecasts for end items determine the demand for components and coupled with knowledge of fabrication times, allows all members of the supply chain to provide the right quantity at the right time to their customers. 3. What role does forecasting play in the supply chain of a mail order firm such as LL Bean? LL Bean has historically operated almost exclusively in a make-to-stock mode and with very few exceptions, stocked products that did not go out of style as rapidly as many other clothing...
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...FORCASTING METHODS Math 540 Quantitative Methods Professor: Forecasting Methods Outline Strategic Role of Forecasting in the Corporate World of Business Components of Forecasting Demand Time Series Method Forecasting Accuracy Regression Methods Benefits of Forecasting Benefits of forecasting Forecasting can help you make the right decisions, and earn/save money. Here are a few examples. Define better sale strategies If a product is declining, maybe it is a good idea to consider stop producing it. But maybe not: maybe it is just your sales that are declining, but not your competitor's? In this case, is there a chance that you can get your market share back? Forecasting techniques provide answers to these questions – vital questions to your business. Size your inventories optimally Time is money. Room is money. So what you want to do is use all means at your disposal in order to reduce your stocks – without experiencing any shortages, of course. Forecasting Components Short-Range Forecast Daily operations Medium-range Forecast Used from anywhere from a month up to 1 year Long-range Forecasting More strategic and for over a year Forecast Patterns Trend A gradual long-term up or down movement of demand Random variations Unpredictable movements in demand that follow no pattern Cycle An up and down repetitive movement in demand Seasonal pattern An up and down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically ...
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...FORECASTING - a method for translating past experience into estimates of the future. Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of the expected value for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgemental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts. The process of climate change and increasing energy prices has led to the usage of Egain Forecasting of buildings. The method uses Forecasting to reduce the energy needed to heat the building, thus reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. Forecasting is used in the practice of Customer Demand Planning in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces...
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...Managerial Economics Sat. 11:00 – 14:00 Demand Estimation and Forecasting Facilitators : Mr. John Michael G. Favila Mr. Jose Miguel G. Catan Learning Objectives * Identify a wide range of Demand Estimation and Forecast Methods. * Understand the nature of Demand Function * Understand that the Demand Estimation and Forecasting is all about minimizing risk. Demand Estimation and Demand Forecasting; distinguished. * Demand Estimation attempts to quantify the link between the level of for a product and the variables which determines it whereas the Demand Forecasting simply attempts to predict the level of sales at some particular future date. 7 stages of Demand Estimation 1. Statement of a Theory or Hypothesis : This usually comes from a mixture of economic Theory and previous empherical studies. 2. Model Specification : This means determining what variables should be included in the demand model and what mathematical form or forms such a relationship should take. 3. Data Collection : Gathering necessary information. a. Cross-sectional data : Provide information on a group opf entities at a given time. b. Time-serie data: Provide information on the entity over time. i. Quantitative: Data that are expressed in nominal in either ordinal or cardinal. ii. Qualitative: Expressed in categories. 4. Estimation of Parameters : This means computing the value of the coefficient...
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...Explanation Forecasting is defined as actively predicting a future event or condition, Many forecasting decision or methods or informal such as a gut feeling or intuition, recent experiences, rule of thumb, advice from a friend or friends, or a combination but some use models and math mathematical methods. Since forecasting informal methods can be highly subjective, those utilized by government or business need to be more formal as informal approaches may problematic and untainted. More systematic methods are often employed as business and government forecasting approaches need to be made in the interest of the public, community or business (McCalman, 2012) This topic was chosen for academic as well professional interest as correct and accurate forecasting can serve as great cost saving methods or revenue generator for an organization. Article Review & Comparison McCalman defines forecasting as the prediction of future events comparing both informal and formal methods both in business and government. The most informal method or formalization discussed by McCalman is forecasting based on most recent observation. Systematic forecasting existing at the opposite extreme uses data and mathematical methods used largely or restricted forty years ago to experts with large computing power. As time has progressed the systematic methods not only utilized technology and data but statistical information and statistical software programs, which has opened forecasting up to those...
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...provide all that is required from raw materials to final products and at the same time get the products to the end users. Successful supply chain management requires a change from managing individual functions to integrating activities into key supply chain process; hence, accurate information is of essence. One of the key factors that can adversely affect effective and efficient supply chain process is information distortion. Demand forecasting and ordering policies have been recognized as two key causes of bullwhip effect in supply chain management. This study explored the simulation approach in quantifying the effect of bullwhip in supply chain, using various forecasting methods. ____________________________________________________________ ______________________________ Keywords: information distortion, supply chain, simulation, quantifying bullwhip effect, forecasting methods ____________________________________________________________ ______________________________ I TRODUCTIO Supply chain is the integration of the decision of the fact that the demands of customers for products...
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...Accuracy of Demand Forecasting Between Point of Sale and Order History Supply Chain Management TBS908 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 4 2. Company Profile 4 3. Demand 5 3.1 Demand Forecasting 6 3.2 Demand Forecasting Methods 6 3.2.1 Opinion Polling / Qualitative Method (subjective): 6 3.2.2 Statistical Methods/Quantitative Approach (objective): 6 4. Order History Vs. Point-of-sale 8 5. Planning Promotions 8 5.1 Promotion Planning and Supply Chain Contracting in a High-Low Pricing Environment 9 5.1.1 Basic Household Inventory Model: 9 6. Types of demand forecast in GCC and UAE 10 7. Objective 10 8. Methodology 11 Table 3 13 Figure 1 13 9. Result 14 10. Recommendations 14 11. Conclusion: 15 11. References 16 12. Appendixes 17 Appendix I 17 Appendix II 19 1. Executive Summary Demand forecasting is essentially anticipating future prospects by reviewing historical data in the most calculated way in an uncontrollable environment. Foreseeing what and when buyers will purchase has never been a simple procedure for producers or retailers. Troubled by the overwhelming undertaking of correctly coordinating supply with interest, makers are always enhancing procedures to accomplish the most noteworthy estimate exactness that will guarantee when the customer enters a store, the item they are searching for is on the rack. This is getting significantly tricky as the uncertainty level increase. In the below report the demand forecast...
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...Company Merriwell Bag Company Case Study 1. What forecasting method would be best suited for Merriwell Bag Company to determine the 2008 forecast? Justify you answer. In my opinion, Merriwell Bag Company should use one type of quantitative forecasting methods called time-series forecasting, because this method is “used to make detailed analyses of past demand patterns over time and to project these patterns forward in the future” (Schroeder, 2008). The main reason Merriwell Bag Company should use the time-series forecasting method is because the “demand can be decomposed into components such as average level, trend, seasonality, cycle, and error” (Schroeder, 2008). The case study states “that the Merriwell family needs a forecasting method that would take the seasonal factor into consideration, stability, and anticipates the growth patterns of their customers”. The time-series method would be perfect for this family owned company. 2. In addition to forecasting demand of larger customers and aggregate demand, how might the accuracy of the forecast be improved? To improve the accuracy of the forecast, Merriwell Bag Company needs to identify the magnitude and form of each component on the basis of available past data. These components are then projected forward into the future. A reliable forecast will be obtained after this is done. This company needs to invest in better forecasting methods, build more flexibility into the company, and reduce the lead...
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...CASE Merriwell Bag Company Merriwell Bag Company is a small, family owned corporation located in Seattle, Washington. The stock of the company is equally divided among five members of the Merriwell family (husband, wife, and three sons), but the acknowledged leader is the founder and patriarch, Ed Merriwell. Ed Merriwell formed the company 20 years ago when he resigned as a mill supervisor for a large paper manufacturer. Ironically, the same manufacturer formed a container division five years ago and is presently one of Merriwell’s competitors. Company Strategy The family attributes the success of Merriwell Bag Company to the fact that it has found a market niche and has no “serious” competition. Merriwell supplies stock bags to many small chain stores scattered over a wide geographical area. It ships the bags directly to small regional warehouses or drop ships directly to the individual stores. The family reasons that the large bag manufacturers cannot profitably provide service to accounts on that small of a scale. In fact, Ed Merriwell formed the business with one second-hand bagging machine to provide bags for a small discount store chain and a regional chain of drug stores. These two organizations have grown tremendously over the years, and Ed Merriwell proudly points out that the Bag Company has grown with them. Today, these two original clients are Merriwell’s largest customers. The Merriwell family does not want its business to be too...
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...Forecasting Assignment Name University of Phoenix Operations Management – MGT 554 Instructor Date Forecasting Assignment Forecasting assists managers (companies) to help predict future demand. Demand management is important because companies can increase value or productivity and reduce costs. Chase, Jacobs, & Aquilano (2005) state, “the purpose of demand management is to coordinate and control all sources of demand so the productive system can be used efficiently and the product delivered on time” (p. 512). When a manager is choosing a forecast method, the manager must analyze the cost of doing the forecast and the opportunity cost of using inaccurate data. In addition, Chase, et al. (2005) state “the manager must look at the following factors: (1) Time horizon to forecast, (2) Data availability, (3) Accuracy required, (4) Size of forecasting budget, and (5) Availability of qualified personnel ( p. 518). This paper will compare and contrast three forecasting methods (Delphi Method, Box Jenkins Technique, and Econometric Models) used by managers to help predict future demand as well as explain how the National Basketball Association (NBA) uses forecasting methods to forecast demand under conditions of uncertainty. The Delphi method is a qualitative technique. Chase, et al. (2005) defines qualitative techniques as “subjective or judgmental and are based on estimates and opinions (p. 513). The Delphi method according to Chase et al., is when a group of experts responds...
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