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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES

Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy

Glenn D. Rudebusch Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

January 2010

Working Paper 2010-01 http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2010/wp10-01bk.pdf

The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy

Glenn D. Rudebusch∗
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract During the past decade, much new research has combined elements of finance, monetary economics, and macroeconomics in order to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy. In this survey, I describe three different strands of such interdisciplinary macro-finance term structure research. The first adds macroeconomic variables and structure to a canonical arbitrage-free finance representation of the yield curve. The second examines bond pricing and bond risk premiums in a canonical macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The third develops a new class of arbitrage-free term structure models that are empirically tractable and well suited to macro-finance investigations.

This article is based on a keynote lecture to the 41st annual conference of the Money, Macro, and Finance Research Group on September 8, 2009. I am indebted to my earlier co-authors, especially Jens Christensen, Frank Diebold, Eric Swanson, and Tao Wu. The views expressed herein are solely the responsibility of the author. Date: December 15, 2009.



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Introduction

The evolution of economic ideas and models has often been altered by economic events. The Great Depression led to the widespread adoption

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