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Monetary Policy

After the IT bubble which is ended in late 2001, the recovery in the US is quite slow and economists are worry about the possible coming decline in inflation. The US started to take the aggressive monetary policy. According to chart 1, we can figure out that the target federal funds rate decline during this period. In the meantime, the low interest rate trigged the investment. A good case in point is the housing market. From the chart 2, we noticed that the housing price rising quickly during the late 1990s. Prices grew at a 7 to 8 percent annual rate in 1998 and 1999, and in the 9 to 11 percent range from 2000 to 2003. On the other hand, the most rapid price gains were in 2004 and 2005, when the annual rate of house price appreciation was between 15 and 17 percent. All of this is the blasting fuse of the real estate bubble. So for this reason, many people blame the 2008 crisis for the monetary policy which is taken after the IT bubble.
However, if we put two charts together, in chart 3, we can figure out some confliction between the federal funds rate and the housing price, especially during the 2004 and 2005. It seems like there is no relationship between the monetary policy and the crisis in 2008. All of this can be tell by the “Greenspan Conundrum”. The main point here is that comparing with the federal funds rate, the housing prices rely more on the long-term mortgage rate. During this year, the shot-term improved interest rate don’t generate higher long term securities rate. Why this happen is still a conundrum in the financial market. Actually the emerging markets who have lots saving play an important role here. The low mortgage rates make the housing market hotter and hotter. We can analyze this through chart 4. The monetary policy really helps the economy get rid of the recession. However, in the meantime, the monetary policies sometime

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