...Volcano Hazards Management 1. Prediction * Long term * Short term LONG TERM PREDICTION * Using recurrence intervals to estimate the next volcanic eruption based on past occurrences and trends. This recurrence interval method is generally not effective for a number of reasons: a) for certain volcanoes, there has been a lack of information of past occurrences, such as the type and frequency of eruptions, to effectively predict the overall behavior of the volcano and b) it is impossible to determine exactly what time frame the volcano may erupt. Example: The US Geological Society also estimated that Mt St Helens may experience another eruption in the next 20-30 years, but such a large time frame is useless in giving governments any accurate information for the preparation of the eruption or mitigation. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcanic eruption was predicted in 1979, quite accurately, however, the damage to the country was devastating as the government did not take the appropriate mitigation measures. 25 000 people and 15 000 animals were killed. 4 500 people were injured, 8 000 people homeless. Some government officials dismissed the report as too alarming and did not want to evacuate people till they were assured of the necessity. A group of scientists visited the crater, saw nothing to suggest eminent danger and did not recommend and evacuation. No emergency plans were made to evacuate people After the Mt Nevado Del Ruiz eruption in 1985, it was predicted...
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...JOURNALOF ELSEVIER Journal of Accounting and Economics 18 (1994) 157-179 Accounting &Economics Earnings management preceding management buyout Susan E. Perrya, Thomas offers b H. Williams** “School of Commerce. University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903-2493, USA bSchool of Business, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA (Received February 1992; final version received March 1994) Abstract There are frequent expressions of concern in the accounting, economics, and legal literature about managers’ conflicting duties and incentives in management buyouts. This study is motivated by a concern about the managerial incentive to reduce reported earnings prior to the announcement of the buyout proposal. Our analysis of a sample of 175 management buyouts during 1981-88 provides evidence of manipulation of discretionary accruals in the predicted direction in the year preceding the public announcement of management’s intention to bid for control of the company. KeJ’ words: Contracting; JEL classification: Earnings management; Accruals; Management buyouts G34 1. Introduction Firms involved in going-private restructurings provide unique opportunities to investigate important accounting, economic, and legat issues. The accounting *Corresponding author. The authors want to thank Sharad Asthana, Larry Brown, J. Stanley Fuhrmann, Jerry Han, Jim McKeown, Steve Rock, Terry Warfield, Richard Willis, the workshop participants...
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