...NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY The Wayne Huizenga Graduate School of Business and Entrepreneurship-Master's ProgramS Assignment for Course: QNT 5040- Business Modeling Submitted to: Dr. Tom Griffin Submitted by: Prince A. Storr ps44@nova.edu Date of Course Meeting: November 18, 2011 Date of Submission: November 18, 2011 Title of Assignment: Greaves Brewery: 10 Month Forecasting CERTIFICATION OF AUTHORSHIP: I certify that I am the author of this paper and any assistance that I received in its preparation is fully acknowledged and disclosed in the paper. I have also cited any sources from which I used data, ideas, or words, either quoted directly or paraphrased. I also certify that this paper was prepared by me specifically for this course. Student Signature: Prince A Storr Instructor(s Grade on Assignment: Instructor(s Comments: Greaves Brewery: Ten Month Sales Forecasting Case Synopsis Alex Benson, purchasing manager for Greaves Brewery in Trinidad was faced with a dilemma in early 2004. He encountered difficulty in forecasting sales for 2004; particularly because of the 2003 slump, government excise taxes and other factors such as decreased numbers in both tourist arrivals to the Caribbean island and beer exports to the U.S. As purchasing manager, Benson’s prime responsibility was maintaining adequate inventory levels for all goods and materials used in the company’s production processes, including the purchase of new bottles and...
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...Things You'll Need: * Commercial driver's license * Moving truck * Insurance * Business cards * Website 1. 1 Pick a niche for your company as well as a name. You can specialize in office moves, late night/off hour moves, apartment moving, or out-of-town moves. Be sure to get an assumed name certificate for your moving company. 2. 2 Obtain a commercial driver's license from the Georgia Department of Driver Services. You will need to pay a $35 application fee (unless you are a veteran or school bus driver) and a $10 permit fee. 3. 3 Decide where you will store your moving truck. If you have a driveway or are allowed to park on the street, it will cost you much less than having to rent a warehouse or commercial parking space. 4. 4 Lease a commercial truck with a trailer that is at least 700 cubic feet. This size truck will allow you to move small offices, houses, and apartments to start with. 5. 5 Purchase, from a company such as New Haven USA, furniture pads, dollys, and other equipment you will need to perform moves. 6. 6 Hire at least one person with a commercial driver's license to work for you as an independent contractor--you will make more money if you have another person to make moves quicker. As you will be trusting him around your customer's property, make sure that you do a background check on him, have him sign a standard agreement that outlines what he will be paid and how often, and use IRS Form SS-8. 7. 7 ...
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...leader. A regression analysis was performed using sales as the selected variable for the strong positive relationship to advertising budget. The correlation coefficient of sales with the advertising budget is 0.96, which was higher than the relationship of competitors advertising budget or retail coverage. Sales with a lower standard error indicate a better predicted forecast. Using the regression equation and expected sales of 2,400 million, the forecasted advertising budget should be set at 162 million. During week two the marketing team was challenged to predict the market sales for the next year. Denim sales have increased five percent over the past four years and is expected to increase again next year. The team used the weighted moving average with a weight of .9 for the most recent observation to give the lowest mean square error (MSE). The lowest MSE is the best model to predict what sales would be over the next year. The forecasted Denim sales over the next year are 777 million units. With Blues Inc having a six percent share of the Denim market the team recommends a fix production at 47 million units to meet current demand. The final week of analysis was...
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...helps make decisions by using macroforecasts of the general economic activity as inputs for their microforecasts of the industry’s and firm’s demand and sales. Forecasting helps decide a firm’s marketing strategy, production needs, sales forecast, and helps predict financial needs such as cash flow, profits, and outside financing. Furthermore, it helps make personal based decisions, as well as assist for the long-term future of the firm (Salvatore, 2012). b) Forcasting types range from expensive to inexpensive, as well as simple to complex. Forecasting techniques can be qualitative, and others can be quantitative. Salvatore focuses on qualitative forecasts. These forecasts include: time-series, smoothing techniques (moving averages), barometric forecasts with leading indicators, econometric forecasts, and input-output forecasts. c) A firm determines the most suitable forecasting method to use by using the following criterion: 1. the cost of preparing the forecast and the benefit that results from its use 2. the lead time in decision making 3. the time period of the forecast (short or long term) 4. the level of accuracy required 5. the quality and availability of the data...
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...| 2006-5 Oklahoma | 47800 | 2007-1 LSU | 46900 | 2007-2 Texas | 50100 | 2007-3 Prairie View A&M | 45900 | 2007-4 Montana | 36300 | 2007-5 Arizona State | 49900 | An important thing to note is that the homecoming game of every season is the second home game (bold), and is always well attended. Also the forth home game always corresponds with a local festival that always draws from attendance (italics). Summary of Forecasting Methods: Below is a table of the forecasting methods. The correlation coefficient, bias, mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) are shown. | Correlation | Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | Naïve | -- | 541.38 | 6865.52 | 69,856,200 | .19 | Moving Average (3 periods) |...
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...analysis indicator MACD is effective in real trading. We will use the S&P 500 Index as our samples, and our main idea is to find the average return and VaR when we buy at the time MACD shows a “golden cross” and sell at the time when there is a “death cross”. MACD: Before we do the test, let’s start to define the MACD as well as its components. MACD is one of the most popular indicators used in the technical analysis. And it is mainly comprised of MACD line, signal line, and the histogram. MACD line and the signal line are calculated by using the EMA (exponential moving average) function, while the histogram is the difference between the MACD line and signal line. MACD line is the difference between exponential moving averages of 12 day stock price and the exponential moving averages of 26 days stock price. The signal line is the exponential moving averages of 9 day MACD. (12, 26, 9) is the well-recognized moving average lengths used in the industry, but can be altered with other appropriate numbers. MACD Line = EMA [stockprice, 12] – EMA [stockprice, 26] Signal Line = EMA [MACD, 9] Histogram = MACD Line – Signal Line In technical analysis, there is a basic rule to apply the MACD into practice, say when the MACD line up crosses the signal line, the stock price is expected to rise in the short term, while the MACD later on down crosses the signal line, the stock price may be expected to go down in short run. So their cross points are always treated as signals to...
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...Inventory Proposal, Part 1 QRB 501 Inventory Proposal, Part 1 McDonald’s is an organization that offers fast food, which includes hamburgers, French fries, and other items, to the public. McDonald’s restaurant works to provide hot and fresh food to its customers. Maintaining freshness is sometimes difficult due to the inventory problem it faces. “What used to be the case was McDonald's would pre-cook a batch of hamburgers and let them sit under heat lamps. They would keep them for as long as possible and eventually discard what couldn't be sold” (Atkinson, 2005, p. 1). Minimizing waste is the goal of McDonald’s just in time inventory system. The benefit of making food when it is ordered is that the customer receives a fresh product and McDonald’s can eliminate waste and protect their inventory. “The only way to get a fresh hamburger under the old system was to make a special order. Now, due to more sophisticated burger-making technology (including a record-breaking bun toaster), McDonald's is able to make food fast enough to wait until it's been ordered” (Atkinson, 2005, p. 1). Inventory Management Problem Every business incurs operational costs and in restaurants inventory control is particularly important because the items held in inventory tend to be highly perishable. “It is not uncommon to have several hundred different types of raw food product in storage at any one moment and poor management leads to a significant waste” (Said, 2012). Each McDonald’s restaurant...
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...Assignment 1 Production System Design Q1) Planners for a company that makes several models of skateboards are about to prepare the aggregate plan that will cover six periods. They have assembled the following information: They now want to evaluate a plan that calls for a steady rate of regular-time output, mainly using inventory to absorb the uneven demand but allowing some backlog. Overtime and subcontracting are not used because they want steady output. They intend to start with zero inventory on hand in the first period. Prepare an aggregate plan and determine its cost using the preceding information. Assume a level output rate of 300 units (skateboards) per period with regular time (i.e., 1,800÷6 = 300). Note that the planned ending inventory is zero. There are 15 workers, and each can produce 20 skateboards per period. Q2) Manager T. C. Downs of Plum Engines, a producer of lawn mowers and leaf blowers, must develop an aggregate plan given the forecast for engine demand shown in the table. The department has a normal capacity of 130 engines per month. Normal output has a cost of $60 per engine. The beginning inventory is zero engines. Overtime has a cost of $90 per engine. a. Develop a chase plan that matches the forecast and compute the total cost of your plan. b. Compare the costs to a level plan that uses inventory to absorb fluctuations. Inventory carrying cost is $2 per engine per month. Backlog cost is $90 per engine per month. Month | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |...
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...As information, if I have questions about your work, I might follow-up with questions asking for clarification. Thanks for understanding. Name ____Solutions______ MBA 626 – Dr. Levy Summer, 2013 Test 1 July 5 – July 6, 2013 1. ______ (22 points) 2. ______ (18 points) 3. ______ (20 points) 4. ______ (18 points) 5. ______ (22 points) 6. ______ (18 points) 7. ______ (14 points) 8. ______ (20 points) 9. ______ (20 points) 10. ______ (28 points) Total ______ (200 points) SHOW ALL WORK!!!! I neither received nor provided help on this test. Name ___________________________________ Date ___________________ Answer Page for Selected Problems Provide only your final answers (for example, the final numbers, selection, etc.) to the following problems. Remember to show your work and answers for these problems on the problem pages. Example only: the break-even point is 100,000 units as this is the point where the cost of the two options is equal. Below that level...
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...FROGBOX Case Lauren sighed. Although she was excited about the idea of moving to a new city after graduating from her MBA – her new job was going to be amazing – she also was dreading the move. When she had last moved as a student, she didn`t have as much “stuff” as she would need to take care of now. Just thinking about where she was going to find all the boxes that she would need made her feel tired. As a student, she also was on a very tight budget last time, and picked up boxes at the grocery and liquor stores. It was cheap but it only worked out because she didn’t have that much to move and it wasn’t that heavy. She wondered if she could afford to purchase ready-made boxes this time. Her older and more financially secure sister and brother-in law had done that last time they moved, but Lauren wasn’t sure she could swing it. New boxes could run as high as $3.00 for each 3-cubic foot box. Certainly she wasn’t going to be able to move like her new boss who just hired a moving company to bring the boxes, pack everything and drive it all to his new address. One of her friends, Julie, who also would be heading off to a new job, was excited about a company she had seen on Dragon’s Den, the Canadian reality business TV show.1 Named FROGBOX, it was created in 2008 as an environmentally friendly moving solution. Instead of having to use cardboard boxes, FROGBOX would supply high-density polyethylene plastic boxes that they would deliver to your current address and pick up from your...
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...Chapter 2 Notes * Administrative laws establish procedures for issuing and removing peoples driver’s licenses, for registering a vehicle, and for a securing a title, which proves ownership of the motor vehicle. * To drive a vehicle you are required to follow your state’s motor vehicle laws. * Passing a vision test is required to get a license. * States can suspend, or temporarily take away licenses for a specified period of time. * Licenses are usually suspended for 30 to 90 days and always fewer than 365 days. * States also have the power to revoke, or take licenses away. You must then apply for another drivers license. * Point system assigns each driver points for violations. States decide when to suspend or revoke your drivers license based on this. * If a driver who has been suspended continues to get pints, their license can be revoked. * Statues issue a certificate of title when you buy a motor vehicle which proves that you legally own the vehicle. * When purchasing a vehicle, you must also register your vehicle with the state. * Financial responsibly is another aspect of driving. * The Right of way is the right to proceed first. Never assume you that you have the right of way. * 3 situations when you must yield the right of way: * Yield the right of way to an emergency vehicle that has its sirens on and its lights flashing. * Yield the right of way to people who ae blind and are carrying a white cane or...
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...Sheet-09 Moving Average Method Example-1: ABC Company has the following manpower data for their health care division for the past six years: |Year |Manpower level/Data | | |(in nos.) | |2003 |500 | |2004 |600 | |2005 |800 | |2006 |1,000 | |2007 |1,100 | |2008 |1,300 | You have been asked to forecast their manpower requirement in 2009 using a 6-period moving average. Answer: F 2009 = (500+600+800+1000+1100+1300) /6 = 5300/ 6 = 883 (Ans:) Weighted Moving Average Method Example-2: |Year |Manpower level/Data | | |(in nos.) | |2003 |500 | |2004 |600 | |2005 |800 | |2006 |1,000 | |2007 |1,100 | |2008 |1,300 | For example, manpower levels of 2003, 2004, 2005 may be less relevant, hence, for these years weights may be assigned...
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...Franklin Exercise 9.3 Moving Averages 20X2-20X4 $18,250,000 / 3 = $6,083,333 Weighted Moving Averages 20X2 $5,500,000 1 $5,500,000 20X3 $6,000,000 2 $12,000,000 20X4 $6,750,000 3 $20,250,000 __ ___________ 6 $37,750,000 20X5 $37,750,000 /6 = $6,291,667 Exponential Smoothing NF = LF + a (LD – LF) NF = $6,300,000 + 0.95($6,750,000 - $6,300,000) = $6,300,000 + 0.95(45,000) = $6,300,000 + (42,750) = $6,342,750 Exercise 9.3 Moving Averages 20X2-20X4 $41,750,000 / 3 = $13,916,667 Weighted Moving Averages 20X2 $14,250,000 1 $14,250,000 20X3 $14,000,000 2 $28,000,000 20X4 $13,500,000 3 $40,500,000 __ ___________ 6 $82,750,000 20X5 $82,750,000/6 = $13,791,667 Exponential Smoothing NF = $13,000,000 + 0.95($13,500,000 - $13,000,000) = $13,000,000 + 0.95(500,000) = $13,000,000 + (475,000) = $13,475,000 Moving averages are the easiest to do without a computer and is fast, but less accurate. Add the three most recent years, and divide by three. Weighted moving averages are simple, but require more time. The most recent year gets the highest weight. The oldest data is one and one multiplies the total. The next year is two, and two multiplies the total. The most current data weight is three, and multiplied by three. Finally, use the total of all years, and dived by the total weight for the weight moving average. The hardest to understand...
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...services can be broken down into several components. Which of the following is not considered a component of demand? (Points : 3) Average demand for a period A trend Seasonal elements Past data Autocorrelation Question 2.2. (TCO 5) In most cases, demand for products or services can be broken into several components. Which of the following is considered a component of demand? (Points : 3) Forecast error Autocorrelation Previous demand Consistent demand Repeat demand Question 3.3. (TCO 5) Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a causal forecasting technique? (Points : 3) Exponential smoothing Weighted moving average Linear regression Historical analogy Market research Question 4.4. (TCO 5) Which of the following forecasting methods uses executive judgment as its primary component for forecasting? (Points : 3) Historical analogy Time series analysis Panel consensus Market research Linear regression Question 5.5. (TCO 5) In business forecasting, what is usually considered a long-term time period? (Points : 3) Three months or longer Six months or longer One year or longer Two years or longer Ten years or longer Question 6.6. (TCO 5) In general, which forecasting time frame best identifies seasonal effects? (Points...
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...GROUP PROJECT Pasquet Ferdinand Ravera Quentin I- Presentation of the company The company was founded by Walter Chrysler (1875–1940) on June 6, 1925. The headquarters are in Auburn Hills in the Michigan. The brand was at the beginning a premium luxury position competing with the brands Cadillac. Chrysler was the top brand in the portfolio of what was then known as Chrysler Corporation. Chrysler's positioning changed several times over the years. Indeed, The Chrysler brand was originally a premium luxury position competing with Cadillac and Lincoln through the cars Imperial.Then, Chrysler's positioning of the Chrysler brand towards a mid-price brand caused Chrysler to kill the brand DeSoto after 1961.After that, in 1975, Chrysler once again became the top brand, with range of products competing with both luxury and near luxury brands like Buick. During the 1980s the Chrysler brand took on a similar role as Oldsmobile or Mercury by offering entry-level luxury cars of various types and sizes. Before the Fiat's acquisition of a 20% stake in Chrysler in 2009, Chrysler had a discontinued line of cars with economy car and sport cars. This strategy ended when the company was threatened with an imminent bankrupt in 2008. That’s why, in December 2008, U.S. President George W. Bush agreed to a $4 billion bailout for Chrysler and another one of $8.5 billion was also given by the President Barack Obama early in his administration. Chrysler LLC (new company emerged from...
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