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公司概述
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隨著時代的變遷和生活節奏的加快使得人們追求營養而便捷的食品﹐而生活方式的改變催生了方便食品的興起。今天我們要介紹的Kellogg Company就是一家具有百年歷史的方便食品生產商。

出生於1860年的Will Keith (W.K.) Kellogg雖然只受過六年的正規教育﹐但是當他意識到美國人的早餐飲食習慣開始從重口味和多脂肪向清淡和更多的穀物類食品轉變時﹐便異常敏銳地抓住了這個機會。1906年他與兄弟John Harvey Kellogg博士一起成為了穀物薄片食品的聯合發明人﹐從此永久性地改變了人們的早餐方式。當時他們發現只使用去殼玉米或玉米甜芯生產的玉米薄片﹐其口感和營養價值更好。於是他們成立了Kellogg Company ﹐開始在密執根的工廠生產這種Kellogg’s Corn Flakes®玉米薄片﹐隨著產品的不斷開發和市場的擴張﹐該公司大大影響了全球的食品行業。

1914年W.K. Kellogg開始進行全球性擴張﹐到1938年公司已經在英國和澳大利亞設立了工廠。1951年W.K. Kellogg過世後﹐Kellogg仍然維持其擴張經營的策略﹐在拉丁美洲和亞洲也設立了生產廠。1952年1月9日公司通過首次公開發行股票成為公眾上市公司﹐當時以每股23.75美元的價格發行了41.5萬股股票﹐股東人數為4000人。1958年公司正式採用Tony the Tiger®成為公司玉米薄片產品的唯一標誌﹐從此Tony虎也成為美國文化的中流砥柱之一。

Kellogg具有突破性的發明創造性方便食品包括Pop-Tarts®餡餅皮﹑Eggo®冷凍華夫和Nutri-Grain®棒。公司以其健康導向和方便創新的象Special K, All Bran以及Product為品牌的穀物類早餐食品奠定了其行業的龍頭地位。1999年公司通過收購素食食品生產商Worthington Foods ﹐以及2000年收購有機食品生產商Kashi Company來擴大其營運範圍。2001年公司以46.5億美元的價格收購了餅乾及薄餅生產商Keebler Foods Company ﹐同時這也是公司歷史上最大的一宗收購兼併案。2002年公司與迪斯尼建立了全球合作夥伴關係﹐推出了更多的穀物類新產品和零食產品。

到2005年公司的年銷售收入超過了100億美元﹐其方便食品包括有餅乾﹑薄餅﹑烤餡餅﹑穀物棒﹑冷凍華夫和肉類食品等。公司的商品品牌包括Kellogg’s®, Keebler®, Pop-Tarts®, Eggo®, Cheez-It®, Club®, Nutri-Grain®, Rice Krispies®, All-Bran®, Special K®等等﹐在全球17個國家設有生產廠﹐產品銷售到180多個國家。而象Tony the Tiger™, Snap! Crackle! Pop!™, Toucan Sam™和 Ernie Keebler ™這樣的公司圖像也成為廣告中最為人們所熟悉的形象。

主要產品
按照產品種類來劃分﹐公司產品主要分為穀物類產品﹐基本佔到公司總營收的53%左右﹔零食產品﹐其營收佔到總銷售額的32% ﹔其它產品﹐其營收佔到總銷售額的15%左右。

按照地域來劃分﹐北美銷售收入佔到公司總收入的67% ﹐歐洲佔到20% ﹐拉丁美洲佔到8% ﹐亞太地區佔到5%。

即食穀物類﹕公司生產各種成人及兒童用即食穀物產品﹐其主要品牌有Kellogg’s ﹑All-Bran ﹑Apple Jacks ﹑Kellogg’s Corn Flakes ﹑Froot Loops ﹑ Pops ﹑Product 19 ﹑Tony’s Cinnamon Krunchers ﹑Special K以及Frosted Flakes等等。

衛生便攜式零食﹕主要生產方便攜帶的包裝食品﹐其便攜式的早餐和水果小吃為消費者提供衛生快捷的美味食物。其主要品牌有Kellogg's Go-Tarts!TM ﹑Pop-Tarts ﹑Kashi Chewy Granola Bars ﹑Sweet & Salty Bars ﹑All-Bran Bars ﹑Nutri-Grain Cereal Bars ﹑Fruit SteamersTM ﹑Nutri-Grain Yogurt Bars以及Nutri-Grain Muffin Bars等等。

餅乾和薄餅﹕公司在2001年收購了美國第二大餅乾和薄餅生產商﹐其主要品牌有Keebler Cookies ﹑Chips Deluxe Cookies ﹑Golden Vanilla Wafers Cookies ﹑Carr’s Cookies ﹑Keebler Crackers ﹑Kashi TLCTM Crackers以及SunshineTM等等。

天然有機冷凍食品﹕為消費者提供快捷﹑美味的膳食解決方案﹐提供各種健康的美味冷凍食品。其主要品牌有Worthington ﹑Loma Linda ﹑Morningstar Farms Organic ﹑Eggo ﹑Kashi GOLEAN Waffles和Morningstar Farms。

主要競爭對手
公司最主要直接的競爭對手有General Mills Inc (NYSE:GIS,新聞,圖表) ﹑Kraft Foods Incorporated (NYSE:KFT,新聞,圖表) 和ConAgra Foods Inc (NYSE:CAG,新聞,圖表) 。

首先來比較競爭對手的市值大小﹐其中以KFT的市值最大﹐K和GIS比較接近﹐CAG的市值最小﹐表明K的流動性較KFT有所欠缺﹐但好於其它兩家對手﹐同時該公司市值遠遠超過同行業平均3.42億美元的水平。

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比較市盈率高低﹐K的市盈率高於GIS和KFT ﹐但低於CAG的水平﹐顯示雖然市場對該公司盈利增長率前景的看好度低於CAG ﹐但同時也表明其風險較低。另外所有競爭公司的市盈率均小於該行業平均25.42倍的水平。

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比較一下過去12個月的營收﹐所有競爭對手中以K的營收最低﹐表明公司在擴大銷售方面還有許多工作要做。

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比較競爭對手的回報率情況﹐這兩項指標均以K的為最佳﹐顯示公司的管理效率是所有競爭對手中最好的。同時該公司的這兩項指標也分別高於行業平均20.58%和6.43%的水平。

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看看利潤率﹐所有三項指標均以K為最佳﹐顯示公司盈利能力相當良好。同時也分別高於行業平均31.47% ﹑11.03%和6.85%的水平。

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比較過去1年和5年的銷售增長率﹐K的1年的銷售增長率是最高的﹐5年銷售增長率低於GIS ﹐而高於其它兩家公司﹐同時也分別高於行業平均3.97%和9.09%的水平﹐總體而言銷售維持了較為健康的增長。

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最後看看K最近七個財年的營收曲線﹐公司營收維持穩定的增長﹐這與公司通過收購兼併﹐擴大產品種類是密不可分的。

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公司最新發展
2006年9月6日公司宣佈將提取與歐洲重組計劃和在英國曼切斯特工廠裁員的相關費用。在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中﹐公司表示為完成是次重組﹐公司將預提6000萬美元的費用﹐其中80%為現金﹐另外20%為非現金資本沖銷額。現金部分將用於自願提前退休計劃和到2008年底的裁員補償計劃來削減曼切斯特工廠的計時工和全職員工。

2006年7月27日公司披露第二季度淨盈餘為2.665億美元﹐折合每股盈餘0.67美元﹐高於去年同期盈餘2.59億美元﹐折合每股盈餘0.62美元的水平。該財季淨銷售收入比去年同期增長了7%達到27.7億美元。展望前景﹐公司表示﹐雖然生產的投入成本上昇﹐但仍然預計2006財年的每股淨盈餘在2.45美元到2.49美元之間。該業績預測包括大約每股分攤到0.15美元的預付費用和每股0.10美元的股票期權費用在內。全年現金流入預計在9億美元到9.75億美元之間。

2006年7月21日公司宣佈﹐董事會批准每股季度分紅為0.291美元。此次分紅的股權登記日為9月1日﹐分紅派息日為9月15日。這是公司自1925年以來的連續第327個季度分紅﹐也是過去一年以來第2次提高分紅額。

2006年7月17日公司宣佈推出新產品Kellogg's, Crunchy Nut, Sweet & Salty Granola Bars ﹐這些產品已經開始從六月底上市。Crunchy Nut是一種新的健康麥片系列產品﹐有巧克力花生和巧克力杏仁兩種口味。

2006年6月23日公司宣佈﹐通過推出三種蛋白質加強型產品將Special K的產品系列擴展到減肥和營養渠道﹐進入雜貨店和藥店。這些產品是專為保持體形的消費者所設計﹐品牌有Special K20 Protein Waters, Special K Protein Snack Bars和Special K Protein Meal Bars ﹐這些產品將於十一月份上市。

>> 下一頁: 價值分析
|公司規模不同,在各個方面都會表現出完全不同的運行規律相應的,應該按照完全不同的方法來予以評估。因此,在評估一家公司的時候, |
|您首先需要明確這家公司的規模。 K 的銷售額為 105,181 百萬,屬於 大型公司(大型公司佔全部公司數的16%)。 下圖顯示了該公司與 |
|同行業公司的銷售額的規模比較。 |
|10518 |
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|2609 |
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|K |
|NYSE |
|PEP |
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|NYSE |
|GIS |
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|CAG |
|NYSE |
|CPB |
|NYSE |
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|NYSE |
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|Kellogg Co |
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|PepsiCo Inc |
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|Sara Lee Cp |
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|General Mills Inc |
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|ConAgra Foods Inc |
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|Campbell Soup Co |
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|Del Monte Foods Co |
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|McCormick & Company |
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|近10年來公司銷售額的規模及變動情況如下圖所示。 |
|6984 |
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|6955 |
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|8853 |
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|8304 |
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|8812 |
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|9614 |
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|10177 |
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|10518 |
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|1999 |
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|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
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|10年來公司銷售額 |
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|1997 |
|1998 |
|1999 |
|2000 |
|2001 |
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|營業收入 (百萬) |
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|6984 |
|6955 |
|8853 |
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|2002 |
|2003 |
|2004 |
|2005 |
|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
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|營業收入 (百萬) |
|8304 |
|8812 |
|9614 |
|10177 |
|10518 |
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|下圖顯示了在這十年時間內,該公司銷售額的增長速度。 |
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|27.2% |
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|6.1% |
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|9.1% |
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|5.8% |
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|3.3% |
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|-0.4% |
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|-6.2% |
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|10年來公司銷售額的增長速度 |
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|1997 |
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|1999 |
|2000 |
|2001 |
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|營業收入增長速度(%) |
|N/A |
|N/A |
|N/A |
|-0.4% |
|27.2% |
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|2002 |
|2003 |
|2004 |
|2005 |
|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
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|營業收入增長速度(%) |
|-6.2% |
|6.1% |
|9.1% |
|5.8% |
|3.3% |
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|近10年來公司淨利潤及變動情況如下圖所示。 |
|338.3 |
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|587.7 |
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|482 |
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|720.9 |
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|787.1 |
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|1007.3 |
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|1999 |
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|截至第2財季 |
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|10年來公司淨利潤 |
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|1997 |
|1998 |
|1999 |
|2000 |
|2001 |
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|淨利潤 (百萬) |
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|338.3 |
|587.7 |
|482 |
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|2002 |
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|2004 |
|2005 |
|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
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|淨利潤 (百萬) |
|720.9 |
|787.1 |
|890.6 |
|980.4 |
|1007.3 |
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|下圖顯示了在這十年時間內,該公司的淨利潤增長速度。 |
|73.7% |
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|49.5% |
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|9.1% |
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|13.1% |
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|10% |
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|2.7% |
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|-17.9% |
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|2000 |
|2001 |
|2002 |
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|2004 |
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|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
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|10年來公司淨利潤增長速度 |
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|1997 |
|1998 |
|1999 |
|2000 |
|2001 |
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|淨利潤增長速度(%) |
|N/A |
|N/A |
|N/A |
|73.7% |
|-17.9% |
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|2002 |
|2003 |
|2004 |
|2005 |
|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
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|淨利潤增長速度(%) |
|49.5% |
|9.1% |
|13.1% |
|10% |
|2.7% |
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|一般情況下,在銷售額增長的同時,利潤應該同步增長。如果利潤的增長速度快於銷售額的增長速度, |
|但在一定的限度之內,表示公司管理層將經營成績轉化為利潤的水平較高;但如果兩者中間的差距太大, |
|將表明在經營過程當中出現了一定的問題。下圖顯示了該公司的利潤增長速度以及與銷售額增長速度的對比。 |
|2000 |
|2001 |
|2002 |
|2003 |
|2004 |
|2005 |
|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|73.7 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|27.2 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
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| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
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|49.5 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|6.1 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
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|9.1 |
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|9.1 |
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|13.1 |
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|5.8 |
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| |
| |
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| |
|10 |
| |
| |
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| |
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| |
|3.3 |
| |
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| |
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|2.7 |
| |
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| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
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|-0.4% |
| |
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| |
| |
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| |
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| |
| |
| |
| |
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|-17.9% |
| |
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| |
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| |
|-6.2% |
| |
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| |
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| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|2000 |
|2001 |
|2002 |
|2003 |
|2004 |
|2005 |
|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|10年來公司銷售額、淨利潤增長速度 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|銷售額增長速度 |
| |
| |
|淨利潤增長速度 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|一般情況下,大公司的增長速度會低於小公司。由於 K 3年的營業收入平均增長速度為 6.08% ,3年的淨利潤平均增長速度為 8.57% 。它 |
|不屬於快速增長的公司。 下圖顯示了在這3年時間內,該公司的增長速度與同行業公司的比較。 |
|6.08% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|0.41% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|3.58% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|0.23% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|2.21% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|18.57% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
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| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|-3.94% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|-33.1% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|K |
|NYSE |
|PEP |
|NYSE |
|SLE |
|NYSE |
|GIS |
|NYSE |
|CAG |
|NYSE |
|CPB |
|NYSE |
|DLM |
|NYSE |
|MKC |
|NYSE |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|Kellogg Co |
| |
| |
|PepsiCo Inc |
| |
| |
|Sara Lee Cp |
| |
| |
|General Mills Inc |
| |
| |
|ConAgra Foods Inc |
| |
| |
|Campbell Soup Co |
| |
| |
|Del Monte Foods Co |
| |
| |
|McCormick & Company |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|下表是公司營業收入、淨利潤的絕對數額和增長速度與競爭對手的比較。 |
|競爭對手 |
|K |
|NYSE |
|PEP |
|NYSE |
|SLE |
|NYSE |
|GIS |
|NYSE |
|CAG |
|NYSE |
|CPB |
|NYSE |
|DLM |
|NYSE |
|MKC |
|NYSE |
| |
|營業收入(百萬) |
|10518.1 |
|34084 |
|15944 |
|11640 |
|11579.4 |
|7343 |
|3001.6 |
|2609.412 |
| |
|淨利潤 |
|(百萬) |
|1007.3 |
|4349 |
|555 |
|1090 |
|533.8 |
|766 |
|159.9 |
|212.103 |
| |
|三年營收 |
|增長速度 |
|6.08% |
|-3.94% |
|0.41% |
|3.58% |
|0.23% |
|2.21% |
|18.57% |
|-33.1% |
| |
|三年淨利潤 |
|增長速度 |
|8.57% |
|9.34% |
|38.42% |
|-3.38% |
|32.15% |
|-3.82% |
|15.94% |
|N/A |
| |
|除了增長率之外,公司的利潤率水平是第二重要的因素。 |
|如果利潤跟隨銷售額的增長而增長,利潤率水平保持穩定甚至上升,表明該公司的基本商業模式是可行 |
|的,公司擁有一定的競爭優勢。同時,較高的利潤率也是應付困難時期的最佳武器。如果公司未能建立起 |
|基本的利潤率,表明或者公司缺乏定價能力,或者公司的成本結構不足以支持公司的發展,一旦長期 持續 下去,公司的股價必然受到很大 |
|的影響。可以說,利潤率水平在評估公司實力方面,是至關重要的指標。 下圖顯示了該公司的淨利潤率水平在近年來的變化。 |
|4.84% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|8.45% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|5.44% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|8.68% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|8.93% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|9.26% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|9.63% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|9.58% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1999 |
|2000 |
|2001 |
|2002 |
|2003 |
|2004 |
|2005 |
|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
| |
| |
| |
|10年來公司淨利潤率 |
| |
| |
| |
|1997 |
|1998 |
|1999 |
|2000 |
|2001 |
| |
|淨利潤率(%) |
| |
| |
|4.84% |
|8.45% |
|5.44% |
| |
|淨利潤增長速度(%) |
|N/A |
|N/A |
|N/A |
|73.7% |
|-17.9% |
| |
| |
|2002 |
|2003 |
|2004 |
|2005 |
|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
| |
|淨利潤率(%) |
|8.68% |
|8.93% |
|9.26% |
|9.63% |
|9.58% |
| |
|淨利潤增長速度(%) |
|49.5% |
|9.1% |
|13.1% |
|10% |
|2.7% |
| |
|在觀察利潤率變化趨勢的同時,投資者應該留意這種利潤率水平與同行業公司的對比。 |
|下圖顯示了該公司與同行業其他公司淨利潤率的對比。較高的淨利潤率是一家超級公司的最主要的特徵。 |
|9.60% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|12.80% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|3.50% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|9.40% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|4.60% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|10.40% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|5.30% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|8.10% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|K |
|NYSE |
|PEP |
|NYSE |
|SLE |
|NYSE |
|GIS |
|NYSE |
|CAG |
|NYSE |
|CPB |
|NYSE |
|DLM |
|NYSE |
|MKC |
|NYSE |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|Kellogg Co |
| |
| |
|PepsiCo Inc |
| |
| |
|Sara Lee Cp |
| |
| |
|General Mills Inc |
| |
| |
|ConAgra Foods Inc |
| |
| |
|Campbell Soup Co |
| |
| |
|Del Monte Foods Co |
| |
| |
|McCormick & Company |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|除了與競爭對手比較外,與行業的平均水平相比也估價分析中非常重要的環節。下面的指標從6個方面對個股和行業的平均水平進行比較。好|
|的公司應該有著超過行業平均水平的增長和回報。如果它的估價不及行業的平均水平,通常這都可能意味著潛在投資機會。 |
|2.48 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1.86 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|20 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|25.25 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|46.4% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|24.77% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|9.2% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|8.11% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|9.6% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|8% |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1.41 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|0.54 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|每股盈餘 |
|市盈率 |
|股東權益 |
|回報率 |
|資產收益率 |
|利潤率 |
|負債權益比 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|與行業的平均水平對比 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|公司指標 |
| |
| |
|行業指標 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|股市投資的奧妙之一就是,好公司並不一定等於好股票。在判斷股票之時,必須避免為它支 |
|付過高的價格──即使買進的是一家好公司的股票。這方面市盈率是最常用的指標。在判斷市盈率指標的高 |
|低之時,必須與它自身的市盈率歷史水平做對比。市盈率低並不一定表示值得買進,但至少表明公司沒有 |
|處於高估的位置,這個指標會提醒你遠離股價高得不合理的公司。 |
|37.1 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|18.1 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|25.5 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|19.6 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|19.8 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|20.9 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|18.3 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|20 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1999 |
|2000 |
|2001 |
|2002 |
|2003 |
|2004 |
|2005 |
|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|10年來公司市盈率 |
| |
| |
|除了市盈率之外,市銷率也是一個值得重點關注的指標。有些公司會暫時出現經營困難,比如出現虧損 |
|或微利的時期,這種時候,它的市盈率會成為負值或者高得不可思議,沒有參考意義。此時,市銷率能夠 |
|告訴你這家公司的實力如何。即使是對正常盈利的公司,市銷率也能提供十分有價值的信息。如果現在公 |
|司的市銷率與歷史水平相比較處於較低水平,而公司各方面的基本情況並未惡化,那麼,很可能這是一家 暫時受到低估的公司。 |
|1.79 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1.53 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1.38 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1.68 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1.77 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1.92 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1.72 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1.87 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|1999 |
|2000 |
|2001 |
|2002 |
|2003 |
|2004 |
|2005 |
|最近12個月 |
|截至第2財季 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|10年來公司市銷率 |
| |
| |
|在進行了上面的各項評估後,我們就可以對公司的內在價值作出評估。 |
|49.74 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|52.58 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|現價 |
|內在價值 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|價值 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|這樣,該公司在3年之後的銷售額會是 12176015512.5 元。 該公司流通股為 396706048 股。 |
|因此,其每股盈餘將是: |
|銷售額(12176015512.5)*利潤率(0.12)/流通股(396706048)=3.68元 |
|按照市盈率 計算, 其股價在3年之後應該為 66.24元。 按照未來3年年均期望回報率 |
|8%將其折算為現在的股價,應為52.58元[複利現值(1+8%)-3=0.7938] 而現在的股價為49.74元,由此可見,該公司股價低估。 |
|根據現在股價水平計算,未來3年年平均回報率將為 10.02%。 |

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Dr, Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

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Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

...issues that affect people every day in modern society. Alexander Solzhenitsyn writes, “Literature that is not the breath of contemporary society, that dares not transmit the pains and fears of that society, that does not warn in time against threatening moral and social dangers-such literature does not deserve the name of literature; it is only a façade.” The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, written by Robert Louis Stevenson, reflects Solzhenitsyn’s quote by warning the individual of the evils found in the duplicity of human nature and the threat this may pose to society as a whole. The story of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde reflects Solzhenitsyn’s belief that literature must inform readers about issues that society faces, or otherwise it is merely a superficial illusion. The story reflects this statement, by exploring the duplicity of human nature, showing how this duplicity can corrupt an individual’s mind, and revealing why humans have this dual nature. The duplicity of human nature is revealed in the book through various aspects of behavior displayed by the characters. The story of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde reveals the dual nature of humans in the form of an uncontrollable mental disorder. However, Stevenson is not necessarily giving a literal interpretation of this chemically...

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