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Netflix Recommendation

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Netflix Stock Recommendation

Our recommendation for Netflix (NFLX) stock is a strong sell, based on our discounted cash flow valuation of $30/share compared to the market price of $97/share.

Netflix is a subscription-based business whose subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices. Netflix is prominent in the streaming industry, where it holds the majority market share of 32% (IBIS).

Netflix is growing

• It has increased its number of domestic and international subscribers
• It has increased the availability of its streaming services to be available on more internet connected devices
• It has expanded its streaming content to target various customer segments
• It has differentiated using price and distribution channel

Netflix’s value chain is outsourcing

• It obtains content through streaming license agreements, and through direct purchases from various studios and TV networks
• It markets its services through several channels, such as broad based media, online advertising, and strategic partnerships
• It stores its content on external cloud services

Netflix is differentiating
• It is creating their own TV shows exclusively streamed on Netflix
• It is focusing on competing on product along with price and distribution channel

Netflix is projecting negative future performance

For the next five years, Netflix will be in the startup phase, and investing in them now is significantly riskier. The following factors illustrate their negative future performance.
• Increased expenses more than $6B dollars
• Projected loss of $114M in the international division
• Forecasted negative free cash flow which would decrease the value of the company.

Based on the data we collected, we believe Netflix is currently overvalued in the market.

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