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Nike Case

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Submitted By gambeta7
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Caso 3er Parcial

Nike, Inc: Cost of Capital

Equipo número 3

Karen Saavedra
A01128884

Margarita Menéndez
A0112

Ana Karen Jáuregui
A0112

Diana Reyes
A0112

INTRODUCTION

History and Background of NorthPoint Group

Founded as an importer of Japanese shoes, Nike has grown to be the world's largest marketer of athletic footwear, holding a global market share of approximately 37 percent. In the United States, Nike products are sold through about 22,000 retail accounts; worldwide, the company's products are sold in more than 160 countries. Both domestically and overseas Nike operates retail stores, including Nike Towns and factory outlets.

This is a mutual fund management firm that invests money mostly in Fortune 500 companies. Its top holdings include Exxon mobile, General Motors, McDonalds, 3M and other large-cap. The stock market declined over the last 18 months. NorthPoint large-cap Fund performed extremely well, actually, in 2000, the fund earned a return of 20.7% even as the S&P 500 fell to 10.1%.
At the end of June 2001, the fund`s year to date returns stood at 6.4% versus -7.3% for the S&P 500.

It was considered the athletic shoe manufacturer. Since 1997, its revenues had landed at around $9 billion dollars. On the other hand, the net income had fallen from almost $800 million to $580 million.
The market share in U.S. athletic shoes had fell from 48% in 1997 to 42% in 2000. This was caused by the adverse effect of a strong dollar leaving the firm with negatively affected revenue.
The management started to be concerned about the top line growth and operating performance. The company has also planned to exert more effort on the expense control. They had a long-term revenue growth target from 8% to 10% and an earning growth target of 15%.

Kimi Ford is a portfolio manager for NorthPoint Large Cap Fund, he is concerned whether or not, it´s worth investing in Nike. Some analysts provided confronting evidence. In one side, the Leham Brothers recommended investing but the CSFB (UBS Warburg) recommended not investing.

PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION

As we know from the information given, Kimi Ford is a portfolio manager for NorthPoint Large Cap Fund, and he is concerned about whether or not it´s worth investing in Nike. Analysts provided confronting evidence.

-If Nike´s discount rate is 12%, its stock price is overvalued
-If discount rate is less than 11.17%, its stock price is undervalued
With this, Ford needs to calculate the cost of capital to determine whether the investment in Nike should be made or ignored.

Another factor that could help the investors to make a decision, is to make a SWOT analysis to valuate the factors that this concept carries.

Strenghts
-number one sports brand in the world
-global brand
-stong at R&D and innovation
-strong sense of marketing campaign
-no factories that tie up cash in buildings and manufacturing
-it manufactures where ever it can produce the highest quality products for the lowest price

Weaknesses
-most of Nike´s profit margin comes from the shoe sector
-the retail sector is very price sensitive
-questionable factory working conditions

Oportunities
-owners truly believe that Nike is not a “fashion brand” but some consumers feel different
-could develop many different products in different markets
-reduce prices in Asian and third world countries to increase market share
-make efforts to reduce the pollution generated from the Nike manufacturing factors
-utilization of shoe production waste

Threats
-Nike is exposed to the international nature of trade
-competitive market for sport shoes
-the declining market share in U.S.
-consumer looking for the better deal
-the organization has experienced many adverse publicity feedbacks due to its widespread advertising

DEVELOPMENT
PROPUESTAS DE SOLUCIÓN
Propuesta 1: Corrección al modelo CAPM
El coeficiente beta que decidimos utilizar fue el promedio (0.80), la tasa libre de riesgos fue de los bonos del tesoro a 20 años que es de 5.74% y la tasa libre de riesgos usamos la medida geométrica de 1926 a 1999 que es de 5.90%. Y llegamos a la siguiente conclusión: | Kj = 5.74+(0.8*(5.9-5.74)) = | 5.868 | % |

Propuesta 2: Costo de la deuda
De acuerdo a las fuentes específicas de capital, que excluye a los pasivos corrientes: Calculamos el índice de endeudamiento de la siguiente manera: Suponiendo que la deuda promedio de la compañía sea de la porción corriente de la deuda a largo plazo: $5.4 milliones más la deuda a largo plazo de $435.9 millones de dólares y el total de los intereses sea de $58.7 millones de dólares, se hará una división del total de intereses entre la deuda promedio de la compañía: 13.3*(1-0.38) = | 8.25% |

Propuesta 3: Costo de la deuda
De acuerdo a las fuentes específicas de capital, que excluye a los pasivos corrientes: Calculamos el índice de endeudamiento de la siguiente manera: Suponiendo que la deuda promedio de la compañía sea la deuda a largo plazo de $435.9 millones de dólares y el total de los intereses sea de $58.7 millones de dólares, se hará una división del total de intereses entre la deuda promedio de la compañía: 58.7/(435.9) = | 13.47% | | | | 13.47*(1-0.38) = | 8.35% |

ALTERNATIVAS DE SOLUCIÓN
COSTO DE LA DEUDA
De acuerdo a las fuentes específicas de capital, que excluye a los pasivos corrientes: Calculamos el índice de endeudamiento de la siguiente manera:
Suponiendo que la deuda promedio de la compañía sea la deuda a largo plazo de $435.9 millones de dólares y el total de los intereses sea de $58.7 millones de dólares, se hará una división del total de intereses entre la deuda promedio de la compañía: 58.7/(435.9) = | 13.47% | | | | 13.47*(1-0.38) = | 8.35% |

COSTO DE LAS ACCIONES
El coeficiente beta que decidimos utilizar fue el promedio (0.80), la tasa libre de riesgos fue de los bonos del tesoro a 20 años que es de 5.74% y la tasa libre de riesgos usamos la medida geométrica de 1926 a 1999 que es de 5.90%. Y llegamos a la siguiente conclusión: Kj = 5.74+(0.8*(5.9-5.74)) = | 5.868 | % |

COSTO DE CAPITAL | | | | | | | | | | Fuentes de fto permanentes | | Porcentajes (w) | | Tasas requeridas | CCPP | | Deuda a largo plazo | 435.9 | 435.9 | 11.26% | | Ki = | 8.35% | | (8.25*.1126) | | Capital de acciones | 3434.5 | 3434.5 | 88.74% | | Ke = | 5.868 | % | (5.86*.8874) | | Total de capital | | 3870.4 | 100% | | | | | 6.129 | % |

PROPUESTA DE SOLUCIÓN
Elegimos esta opción ya que incluye las propuestas 1 y 2 que anteriormente se mostraron (ver Excel). Por un lado recalculamos el costo de la deuda con base solamente a los pasivos de corto de largo plazo y en segundo lugar recalculamos el costo de capital común utilizando modelo CAPM.
Después ponderamos para obtener nuestros porcentajes de participación de las fuentes de capital para así multiplicarlos cada uno con su respectiva propuesta (costo de deuda y costo de las acciones) obteniendo así nuestro Costo de Capital Promedio Ponderado (CCPP).

CONCLUSIONES 1. ¿Consideran correctos los cálculos que presenta Joanna Cohen del WACC? No en todos los puntos ¿Por qué?
En primer lugar mezcla dentro de las fuentes de capital los pasivos de corto y largo plazo, además al realizar los cálculos que propone Joanna para obtener costo del capital común mediante el modelo CAPM no obtenemos el resultado propuesto por ella utilizando los mismos datos que ella plantea.

2. ¿La metodología utilizada es aplicable para una empresa como Nike? No
¿Por qué? Aplica de manera errónea el proceso de calcular el CCPP, al confundir conceptos en los pasivos corrientes de largo plazo; mientras que solo los segundos pertenecen a las fuentes del capital .”Nuestro interés se dirige sólo hacia las fuentes de los fondos a largo plazo disponibles para una empresa de negocios porque estas fuentes proveen el financiamiento permanente” (Gitman, L. 2007 pp.407).A demas consideramos que este tipo de empresas, por tener una estrcutura tan grande y compleja, el analisis debe de ser con mayor información con respecto a los prestamos para poder saber mas acerca de la estructura de la deuda y comparar con otras empreas del sector para poder tomar de decisón de una manera más informada y con mayor precisión para asertar en el futuro.

3. ¿Están de acuerdo con los supuestos en relación al riesgo de los diferentes segmentos de negocio que establece Joanna?

¿Por qué?
De acuerdo a las cálculos que ella presenta concordamos en que Nike es una marca de ropa deportiva y no una marca de zapatos deportivos que además hace accesorios; si bien el porcentaje de los zapatos deportivos, representa el 62% de sus ingresos, el diseño y la mercadotecnia así como las líneas de distribución y los clientes son los mismos mientras que sól un porcentaje menor al 4.5% de los ingresos pertenece a la subdivisión de Cole-Haan la cual no se encuentra en el mercado deportivo, Por lo cual consideramos que la opinión es acertada y el análisis del CCPP debe de ser conjuto.

4. ¿Cuál sería su propuesta para calcular correctamente el WACC?

Nosotros desarrollamos varias propuestas de solución en las cuales detectamos errores tanto de aplicación de modelos como en la metodología, pensamos que el autor mesclo pasivos corrientes con pasivos de largo plazo. Así mismo concordamos con los datos que presenta para calcular el costos del capital contable pero el resultado fue diferente, por lo que se podría decir que la propuesta se sustenta en el método aprendido en clase, ya que en caso que existiera otro, le esta dando un resultado muy diferente a Joanna.
5. Presenten su propio cálculo del WACC en Excel, explicando y justificando los supuestos en que se basen para los cálculos. (ver anexo)

REFERENCES

Bowerman, D. (2007). Nike, Inc. – Company Profile, information, business description, history, background information on Nike, Inc. Obtenido el 17 de octubre del 2011, de: http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/history2/99/Nike-Inc.html

Gitman, L. (2007). Principios de Administración Financiera. EEUU: Pearson Addison Wesley

Morgan, A. (2000)"Nike Sports Shoes: Winged Victory" Economist. Obtenido el 17 de octubre del 2011, de: http://www.economist.com/search/apachesolr_search/nike

Yang, D. (2003)."Can Nike Just Do It?," Business Week. Obtenido el 17 de octubre del 2011, de: http://www.businessweek2003.com/can.nike.just.do.it/_nikecorp

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