Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight (Liebl 2010)

Table of contents 1. Summary of the article 3 2. Analysis of the strength and weakness of the argument 5 2.1 Strengths 5 2.2 Weakness 6 3. Implications for the top management 7 4. Conclusion 8 Appendix A 10 Appendix B 11

1. Summary of the article “In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things” (Musashi 2009). * This article focuses on trend diagnosis for strategic foresight in its entirety. The author scrutinizes that although trend is an imperative concept in the strategic issue management, the interpretation of trend in strategic foresight is ambiguous. This paper conceptualizes, from a strategic point of view, trend as an innovation (socio-cultural) and elaborate the implications with respect to strategic issue diagnosis. (Liebl 2010) * * * * * The figure above (Liebl 2010) depicts an elaborate framework for conceptualizing trends. The strategic trend diagnosis has to deal with two different aspects of innovation: invention and diffusion. The invention aspect of a trend is identifying “The New” results from a transgression of contextual boundaries whereas the diffusion is a process of normalization (Normality and Abnormality) – i.e., a new socio-cultural practice becomes a social convention and the phenomena of post-normalization may lead to a process of market creation. * * * * Another main point that the article highlights is the strategy formulation based on entrepreneurial framework. The figure above (Liebl 2010) shows the link to the strategic formulation. According to entrepreneurial framework, the formulation of strategy should start from the “worlds of the