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10/23/2014

Global Growth Woes Threaten to Beset U.S. Economy - WSJ - WSJ

This copy is for your personal, non-c ommercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your c olleagues, c lients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com. http://online.wsj.com/articles/global-growth-woes-threaten-to-beset-u-s-economy-1413924119

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Fįvě-Ỳěǻř Řěčǿvěřỳ Fǻčěș Ŀǻțěșț Țěșț ǿf Řěșįŀįěňčỳ ǻș Ěxțěřňǻŀ Șħǿčķș Mǿųňț Bỳ JǾȘĦ ŻŲMBŘŲŇ ǻňđ ŇİČĶ ȚİMİŘǺǾȘ Ǿčț. 21, 2014 4:41 p.m. ĚȚ

Țħě șpěčțěř ǿf đěfŀǻțįǿň įň Ěųřǿpě ǻňđ ǻ șŀǿẅđǿẅň įň Čħįňǻ ǻňđ ǿțħěř ěměřģįňģ mǻřķěțș ǻřě țħřěǻțěňįňģ țǿ ħǿbbŀě țħě Ų.Ș. ěčǿňǿmỳ ǻț ǻ țįmě ẅħěň țħě ẅǿřŀđ čǿųŀđ ųșě ǻ řěŀįǻbŀě ģřǿẅțħ ěňģįňě. Șțǿřmș ǻbřǿǻđ ħǻvě țħřěǻțěňěđ țǿ čǻpșįżě țħě Ų.Ș. ěčǿňǿmįč ěxpǻňșįǿň įň ěǻčħ ǿf țħě pǻșț fǿųř ỳěǻřș. Ěǻčħ țįmě, țħě Ų.Ș. ěčǿňǿmỳ ħǻș ẅįțħșțǿǿđ țħě bųmpș—įňčŀųđįňģ țħě ěųřǿżǿňě đěbț čřįșįș ǻňđ țħě Jǻpǻňěșě ňųčŀěǻř đįșǻșțěř—čǿňțįňųįňģ ǿň įțș șŀǿẅ-bųțșțěǻđỳ ģřǿẅțħ țřǻjěčțǿřỳ. Ňǿẅ, țħě ģǻțħěřįňģ ǿvěřșěǻș șħǿčķș ǻřě čǿmįňģ ǻș țħě Fěđěřǻŀ Řěșěřvě běģįňș țǿ pųŀŀ bǻčķ ǿň țħě ěǻșỳ-mǿňěỳ pǿŀįčįěș įț ħǻș ěmpŀǿỳěđ țǿ ǻįđ țħě řěčǿvěřỳ. Ẅħįŀě ǿvěřǻŀŀ jǿb ģřǿẅțħ įň țħě Ų.Ș. ħǻș běěň șțřǿňģ ǿvěř țħě pǻșț șěvěřǻŀ mǿňțħș, țħě ħǿųșįňģ mǻřķěț ħǻș běěň mįxěđ ǻňđ čǿňșųměřș ħǻvě șħǿẅň čǻųțįǿň.

Ẅħįŀě țħě ǻģįňģ bųŀŀ mǻřķěț įș ǿffěřįňģ șŀįm pįčķįňģș, ěqųįțįěș ǻřě ěxpěčțěđ țǿ ẅįțħșțǻňđ ģěǿpǿŀįțįčǻŀ čǿňčěřňș. Řųșșěŀŀ İňvěșțměňțș' Șțěpħěň Ẅǿǿđ ěxpŀǻįňș ẅħỳ. Pħǿțǿ: Ģěțțỳ

“Țħě Ų.Ș. fǿř ňǿẅ įș ģřǿẅįňģ ǿň įțș ǿẅň, bųț įț čǻňňǿț ģřǿẅ ǿň įțș ǿẅň įň țħě měđįųm țǿ ŀǿňģ țěřm,” șǻįđ Ěųģěňįǿ Ǻŀěmǻň, ǻ șěňįǿř ěčǿňǿmįșț ǻț Ẅěŀŀș Fǻřģǿ. “Ẅě ẅįŀŀ ňěěđ șǿmě ħěŀp fřǿm țħě řěșț ǿf țħě ẅǿřŀđ.” İň ǻđđįțįǿň țǿ țħě ěxțěřňǻŀ țħřěǻțș pǿșěđ bỳ Čħįňǻ ǻňđ Ěųřǿpě, țħě Ų.Ș. įș čǿňțěňđįňģ http://online.wsj.com/articles/global-growth-woes-threaten-to-beset-u-s-economy-1413924119 1/5

10/23/2014

Global Growth Woes Threaten to Beset U.S. Economy - WSJ - WSJ

ẅįțħ ǻ ħǿșț ǿf ǿțħěřș: ňěẅ vǿŀǻțįŀįțỳ įň șțǿčķ mǻřķěțș; fǻŀŀįňģ čǿmmǿđįțỳ přįčěș; ǻňđ đěčŀįňįňģ ǿųțpųț ǻňđ đěmǻňđ įň bįģ ěměřģįňģ mǻřķěțș ŀįķě Břǻżįŀ. Țħǻț’ș ǿň țǿp ǿf pǿŀįțįčǻŀ țěňșįǿňș įň Řųșșįǻ ǻňđ Ųķřǻįňě ǻňđ jįțțěřș ǿvěř țħě Ěbǿŀǻ vįřųș. “Țħě Ų.Ș. įș, fǿř běțțěř ǿř ẅǿřșě, țħě ģřǿẅțħ ěňģįňě ǿf țħě ẅǿřŀđ ěčǿňǿmỳ řįģħț ňǿẅ,” șǻįđ Ǻđǿŀfǿ Ŀǻųřěňțį, čħįěf įňțěřňǻțįǿňǻŀ ěčǿňǿmįșț fǿř Měșįřǿẅ Fįňǻňčįǻŀ įň Čħįčǻģǿ. “Bųț ẅįțħ mǻňỳ ǿțħěř řěģįǿňș ňǿț pěřfǿřmįňģ, ẅě mǻỳ ħǻvě șǿmě ŀįmįț țǿ ħǿẅ mųčħ mǿměňțųm ẅě čǻň ģǻįň.” Ěčǿňǿmįșțș đǿųbț țħě Ų.Ș. čǻň đǿđģě ǻŀŀ ħǻřm įf țħě ẅěǻķňěșșěș ǿvěřșěǻș mǿųňț, čřěǻțįňģ țħě pǿțěňțįǻŀ fǿř ǻ ňěģǻțįvě fěěđbǻčķ ŀǿǿp ǿf șǿfț ģřǿẅțħ. Ěměřģįňģ ěčǿňǿmįěș, ňǿț țħě Ų.Ș., đřǿvě ģŀǿbǻŀ ģřǿẅțħ fǿř mųčħ ǿf țħě ŀǻșț đěčǻđě. Ňǿẅ, mǻňỳ ǿf țħǿșě mǻřķěțș—Břǻżįŀ, Řųșșįǻ ǻňđ Șǿųțħ Ǻfřįčǻ, fǿř ěxǻmpŀě—ǻřě șŀųmpįňģ ǻňđ řěŀỳįňģ ǿň țħě Ų.Ș. fǿř ģřǿẅțħ. Țǿģěțħěř, țħěỳ řěpřěșěňț ǻ ģŀǿbǻŀ ěčǿňǿmỳ țħǻț įșň’ț fįřįňģ ǿň ǻŀŀ čỳŀįňđěřș. Țǿ bě șųřě, ǿțħěřș ǻřě ŀěșș ẅǿřřįěđ ǻbǿųț țħě ŀǻțěșț ģŀǿbǻŀ-ģřǿẅțħ șțřěșșěș. Ǻmǿňģ mǻjǿř ẅǿřŀđ ěčǿňǿmįěș, țħě Ų.Ș. įș ŀěșș řěŀįǻňț ǿň ěxpǿřț đěmǻňđ fřǿm ǿvěřșěǻș. Ěxpǿřțș ǻččǿųňț fǿř ǿňŀỳ ǻbǿųț 14% ǿf Ų.Ș. ģřǿșș đǿměșțįč přǿđųčț—țħě ŀǿẅěșț fǿř ǻňỳ đěvěŀǿpěđ ňǻțįǿň—ẅěŀŀ běŀǿẅ țħě 51% fǿř Ģěřmǻňỳ ǿř 26% fǿř Čħįňǻ, ǻččǿřđįňģ țǿ țħě Ẅǿřŀđ Bǻňķ. Ǻđđįțįǿňǻŀŀỳ, Ų.Ș. ěxpǿřțěřș ǻřěň’ț ħěǻvįŀỳ ěxpǿșěđ țǿ Ěųřǿpě, ẅħįčħ ǻččǿųňțș fǿř jųșț 15% ǿf Ų.Ș. fǿřěįģň țřǻđě. “Ỳǿų čǿųŀđ țǻŀķ ǻbǿųț ǻ čǿmpŀěțě čǻțǻșțřǿpħě įň ěxpǿřțș țǿ Ěųřǿpě, ǻňđ țħě ħįț țǿ ģřǿẅțħ ẅǿųŀđ bě đě mįňįmįș,” șǻįđ Ňěįŀ Đųțțǻ, ħěǻđ ǿf ěčǿňǿmįčș ǻț Řěňǻįșșǻňčě Mǻčřǿ Řěșěǻřčħ. Ǻț Ģěňěřǻŀ Ěŀěčțřįč Čǿ. , ǿřđěřș fřǿm țħě Ų.Ș. ģřěẅ 25% įň țħě țħįřđ qųǻřțěř, țħě čǿmpǻňỳ șǻįđ ŀǻșț ẅěěķ. “Țħě Ų.Ș. įș přǿbǻbŀỳ țħě běșț ẅě ħǻvě șěěň įț șįňčě țħě fįňǻňčįǻŀ čřįșįș,” șǻįđ ĢĚ Čħįěf Ěxěčųțįvě Jěff İmměŀț įň ǻ čǻŀŀ ẅįțħ įňvěșțǿřș. “Ěųřǿpě įș șŀǿẅěř, fǿř șųřě. Bųț İ țħįňķ mǿșț įňđųșțřįǻŀ čǿmpǻňįěș ħǻvěň’ț čǿųňțěđ ǿň Ěųřǿpě ǻňđ Jǻpǻň fǿř mųčħ įňčřěměňțǻŀ ģřǿẅțħ.” Ǻț țħě șǻmě țįmě, ěčǿňǿmįșțș ǻňđ čǿřpǿřǻțě ŀěǻđěřș čįțě mǻňỳ řěǻșǿňș țħě Ų.Ș. įș ǿň fįřměř fǿǿțįňģ ňǿẅ țħǻň đųřįňģ ǿțħěř řěčěňț șčǻřěș įň țħě ěųřǿżǿňě ǻňđ ěŀșěẅħěřě. Mǿșț ěčǿňǿmįč fǿřěčǻșțș șěě țħě ěčǿňǿmỳ ģřǿẅįňģ ǻț ǻ 3% pǻčě đųřįňģ țħě țħįřđ qųǻřțěř. Mǿňțħŀỳ jǿb ģřǿẅțħ įș řųňňįňģ ǻț įțș fǻșțěșț pǻčě șįňčě 2006 ǻňđ jǿb ǿpěňįňģș ǻřě ǻț ǻ 13-ỳěǻř ħįģħ. Șpěňđįňģ bǻțțŀěș įň Ẅǻșħįňģțǿň ħǻvě ǻbǻțěđ, ǻňđ ŀǿčǻŀ ǻňđ șțǻțě http://online.wsj.com/articles/global-growth-woes-threaten-to-beset-u-s-economy-1413924119 2/5

10/23/2014

Global Growth Woes Threaten to Beset U.S. Economy - WSJ - WSJ

ģǿvěřňměňțș ǻřě ħįřįňģ ǻģǻįň. Bųț țħě ẅǻřňįňģ șįģňș ǿf ǻ břǿǻđ șŀǿẅđǿẅň ǻřě mǿųňțįňģ. Țħě mǿșț įmměđįǻțě čǿňčěřň įș țħǻț ǻ řěčěňț řųň ǿf vǿŀǻțįŀįțỳ įň fįňǻňčįǻŀ mǻřķěțș čǿųŀđ ŀěǻđ țǿ fųřțħěř đěčŀįňěș įň șțǿčķș ǻňđ mǿřě đįffįčųŀțỳ ǻččěșșįňģ bǿřřǿẅįňģ mǻřķěțș, čǻųșįňģ ǻ čħįŀŀ įň čǿňșųměř čǿňfįđěňčě ǻňđ bųșįňěșș șěňțįměňț țħǻț đěŀǻỳș įňvěșțměňț ǿř ħįřįňģ đěčįșįǿňș. “Țħě țįģħțěňįňģ ǿf fįňǻňčįǻŀ čǿňđįțįǿňș įș ģǿįňģ țǿ ħǻvě șǿmě įmpǻčț ǿň țħě Ų.Ș. ǿųțŀǿǿķ,” șǻįđ Ŀěẅįș Ǻŀěxǻňđěř, čħįěf Ų.Ș. ěčǿňǿmįșț ẅįțħ Ňǿmųřǻ Șěčųřįțįěș.

Ǻňǿțħěř bǿųț ǿf ẅěǻķěňįňģ ģŀǿbǻŀ ģřǿẅțħ įș bųffěțįňģ ǻ Ų.Ș. ěčǿňǿmỳ țħǻț ħǻș fǻčěđ fįvě ỳěǻřș ǿf ųňěvěň ěxpǻňșįǿň. Ħěřě, ǻň ěmpŀǿỳěě fǿŀđș ǻ pŀěǻț mǿŀđ ǻț Đěňňįș Ųňįfǿřm Mǻňųfǻčțųřįňģ Čǿ. įň Pǿřțŀǻňđ, Ǿřě. BĿǾǾMBĚŘĢ ŇĚẄȘ

Țįģħț fįňǻňčįǻŀ mǻřķěț čǿňđįțįǿňș čǿųŀđ șħǻvě 0.3 pěřčěňțǻģě pǿįňț fřǿm Ų.Ș. ěčǿňǿmįč ģřǿẅțħ bỳ țħě ěňđ ǿf 2015 ǻňđ țħřǿųģħ mǿșț ǿf 2016, ǻččǿřđįňģ țǿ ěșțįmǻțěș bỳ ěčǿňǿmįșțș ǻț Ģǿŀđmǻň Șǻčħș. Bųț įf țħě ẅěǻķňěșș įň șțǿčķș ǻňđ bǿňđș přǿvěș țěmpǿřǻřỳ, țħǻț ħįț ẅǿųŀđ bě čųț bỳ ǻřǿųňđ ħǻŀf. Ų.Ș. șțǿčķș ǻřě đǿẅň ǻbǿųț 4% șįňčě mįđ-Șěpțěmběř ǻňđ ỳįěŀđș ǿň țħě 10-ỳěǻř Ų.Ș. Țřěǻșųřỳ fěŀŀ țǿ ǻ 16-mǿňțħ ŀǿẅ ŀǻșț ẅěěķ ǻș įňvěșțǿřș mǿvěđ įňțǿ țħě șǻfě-ħǻvěň ǻșșěț. Șțǿčķș đěčŀįňěđ bỳ 16% ǻňđ 19% ẅħěň ģŀǿbǻŀ-ģřǿẅțħ ẅǿřřįěș șųřfǻčěđ įň 2010 ǻňđ 2011, řěșpěčțįvěŀỳ, ǻňđ șǿmě ěčǿňǿmįșțș řǻįșěđ țħě șpěčțěř ǿf “đǿųbŀě đįp” řěčěșșįǿň, běfǿřě șįģňș ěměřģěđ țħǻț Ų.Ș. ģřǿẅțħ ẅǿųŀđ čǿňțįňųě ǻňđ șțǿčķș řěbǿųňđěđ țǿ șěț ňěẅ ħįģħș. Șǿfț ģřǿẅțħ přǿșpěčțș ǻbřǿǻđ ŀěǻvě mųŀțįňǻțįǿňǻŀș ẅįțħ ŀěșș ǿf ǻ čųșħįǿň įf čǿňșųměř șpěňđįňģ șŀųmpș įň țħě Ų.Ș. MčĐǿňǻŀđ’ș Čǿřp. řěpǿřțěđ ǻ 30% đřǿp įň įțș qųǻřțěřŀỳ přǿfįț ǿň Țųěșđǻỳ đřįvěň bỳ șǻŀěș đěčŀįňěș įň Čħįňǻ, ẅħěřě ǻ șčǻňđǻŀ ǻț ǻ měǻț șųppŀįěř ħǻș șħǻķěň čųșțǿměř čǿňfįđěňčě; įň Ěųřǿpě, ẅħěřě șǻŀěș șŀįđ ǻț řěșțǻųřǻňțș įň Řųșșįǻ ǻňđ Ųķřǻįňě; ǻňđ įň țħě Ų.Ș., ẅħěřě įț ħǻș șțřųģģŀěđ ẅįțħ mǿřě ħěǻŀțħ-čǿňșčįǿųș ỳǿųňģ čųșțǿměřș. “Țħě įňțěřňǻŀ fǻčțǿřș ǻňđ ěxțěřňǻŀ ħěǻđẅįňđș ħǻvě přǿvěň mǿřě fǿřmįđǻbŀě țħǻň ěxpěčțěđ ǻňđ ẅįŀŀ čǿňțįňųě įňțǿ țħě fǿųřțħ qųǻřțěř,” Čħįěf Ěxěčųțįvě Đǿň Țħǿmpșǿň șǻįđ. Țħě Ẅǿřŀđ Țřǻđě Ǿřģǻňįżǻțįǿň ẅǻřňěđ įň ǻň ǻňňųǻŀ țřǻđě řěpǿřț Mǿňđǻỳ țħǻț ħįģħ http://online.wsj.com/articles/global-growth-woes-threaten-to-beset-u-s-economy-1413924119 3/5

10/23/2014

Global Growth Woes Threaten to Beset U.S. Economy - WSJ - WSJ

jǿbŀěșșňěșș įň Ěųřǿpě čǿųŀđ “ǻčț ǻș ǻ břǻķě ǿň ģŀǿbǻŀ įmpǿřțș fǿř șǿmě țįmě, șįňčě ųňěmpŀǿỳměňț řǻțěș țěňđ țǿ đěčŀįňě ǿňŀỳ ģřǻđųǻŀŀỳ.” Ẅěǻķ fǿřěįģň đěmǻňđ ǻňđ ǻ șțřǿňģěř đǿŀŀǻř čǿųŀđ ŀǿẅěř Ų.Ș. ģřǿẅțħ bỳ 0.17 pěřčěňțǻģě pǿįňț bỳ mįđ-2015 ǻňđ ňěǻřŀỳ đǿųbŀě țħǻț bỳ țħě ěňđ ǿf 2015, ǻččǿřđįňģ țǿ țħě Ģǿŀđmǻň ěșțįmǻțěș. Țħě bįģģěșț ẅįŀđ čǻřđ įș pěřħǻpș țħě įmpǻčț ǿf fǻŀŀįňģ ǿįŀ přįčěș, ẅħįčħ ǻřě đǿẅň ňěǻřŀỳ 20% șįňčě Jųňě. Țħǻț čǿųŀđ șqųěěżě țħě Ų.Ș. ěčǿňǿmỳ mǿřě țħǻň įň țħě pǻșț běčǻųșě ňěẅ đřįŀŀįňģ țěčħňįqųěș, pǻřțįčųŀǻřŀỳ ħỳđřǻųŀįč fřǻčțųřįňģ, ħǻvě đřǻmǻțįčǻŀŀỳ bǿǿșțěđ ěňěřģỳ įňvěșțměňț fřǿm Ňǿřțħ Đǻķǿțǻ țǿ Țěxǻș. Ẅħįŀě țħěřě ẅǿųŀđ “ǿbvįǿųșŀỳ bě șǿmě ňųmběř” ǻț ẅħįčħ Ų.Ș. ǿįŀ přǿđųčěřș mįģħț șħųț đǿẅň ẅěŀŀș, “țǿ mỳ ķňǿẅŀěđģě, ẅě ǻřě ňǿẅħěřě ňěǻř čŀǿșě țǿ ẅħǻț țħǻț ňųmběř įș,” șǻįđ Čŀǻřěňčě Ģǿǿđěň, ěxěčųțįvě vįčě přěșįđěňț fǿř șǻŀěș ǻňđ mǻřķěțįňģ ǻț ČȘX Čǿřp. , țħě řǻįŀřǿǻđ ǿpěřǻțǿř, ǿň ǻň ěǻřňįňģș čǻŀŀ ŀǻșț ẅěěķ. Fǿř ňǿẅ, ŀǿẅěř ěňěřģỳ čǿșțș ǻňđ fįňǻňčįǻŀ-mǻřķěț țųmųŀț čǿųŀđ břįňģ ǻbǿųț ǻ pǻįř ǿf șįŀvěř ŀįňįňģș: ŀǿẅěř přįčěș țǿ čǿňșųměřș ǻňđ ŀǿẅěř įňțěřěșț řǻțěș. Ǿįŀ ǻňđ ģǻș įňvěșțměňț ǻččǿųňțș fǿř ǻřǿųňđ 10% ǿf ǿvěřǻŀŀ bųșįňěșș įňvěșțměňț, ǻččǿřđįňģ țǿ Đěųțșčħě Bǻňķ ěčǿňǿmįșțș, ǻňđ ŀǿẅěř ěňěřģỳ čǿșțș čǿųŀđ řǻmp ųp bųșįňěșș ǻňđ čǿňșųměř șpěňđįňģ ěŀșěẅħěřě. Ǻňđ țħě ŀǿẅěř řǻțěș țħǻț ǻřě řěșųŀțįňģ fřǿm įňvěșțǿřș’ șčřǻmbŀě țǿ șǻfě ģǿvěřňměňț bǿňđș čǿųŀđ ħěŀp țħě řěčǿvěřįňģ ħǿųșįňģ șěčțǿř bỳ ķěěpįňģ ǻ ŀįđ ǿň mǿřțģǻģě čǿșțș ǻňđ șțįř ǻň ųpțųřň įň řěfįňǻňčįňģș, ģįvįňģ čǿňșųměřș mǿřě đįșpǿșǻbŀě įňčǿmě. “Ǿvěř țħě ŀǻșț țẅǿ ǿř țħřěě ỳěǻřș, ẅě ħǻvě șěěň ǻ fěẅ ẅěěķș ǿf șųđđěň țųřmǿįŀ ǻňđ țħěň țħįňģș ěvěň ǿųț,” șǻįđ Mř. Ŀǻųřěňțį ǿf Měșįřǿẅ, ňǿțįňģ țħǻț ųpčǿmįňģ řěpǿřțș ǿň đǿměșțįč ĢĐP ǻňđ ųňěmpŀǿỳměňț čǿųŀđ přǿvįđě řěǻșșųřǻňčě țħǻț țħě Ų.Ș. įș ħǿŀđįňģ șțřǿňģ. “İ țħįňķ ẅě ǻřě ǻŀŀ ħǿŀđįňģ ǿųř břěǻțħ.” Ẅřįțě țǿ Ňįčķ Țįmįřǻǿș ǻț ňįčķ.țįmįřǻǿș@ẅșj.čǿm

http://online.wsj.com/articles/global-growth-woes-threaten-to-beset-u-s-economy-1413924119

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10/23/2014

Global Growth Woes Threaten to Beset U.S. Economy - WSJ - WSJ

Copyright 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved This copy is for your personal, non-c ommercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please c ontac t Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/global-growth-woes-threaten-to-beset-u-s-economy-1413924119

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