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Oil and the Recent ‟Dutch Disease‟ - the Case of the United Arab Emirates

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Oil and the recent

‟Dutch Disease‟

- The Case of the United Arab Emirates

Report Submitted by:

Amitava Manna

Abstract:

In economics, the Dutch disease is a concept that purportedly explains the apparent relationship between the increase in exploitation of natural resources and a decline in the manufacturing sector. The claimed mechanism is that an increase in revenues from natural resources (or inflows of foreign aid) will make a given nation's currency stronger compared to that of other nations (manifest in an exchange rate), resulting in the nation's other exports becoming more expensive for other countries to buy, making the manufacturing sector less competitive. While it most often refers to natural resource discovery, it can also refer to "any development that results in a large inflow of foreign currency, including a sharp surge in natural resource prices, foreign assistance, and foreign direct investment". According to the Dutch Disease core model a boom in natural resources will eventually lead to a shift of production between sectors: from tradable goods to non-tradable goods. United Arab Emirates has been a subject to any of the effects caused by the disease, due to the oil boom during the 1970s and the huge development that has appeared in the country. If the United Arab Emirates is be a victim of the disease, the decline in exports of the natural resource will result in a decline in the non-oil tradable goods which will affect the country negatively. Furthermore, the disease can also make it more difficult for the country to deal with the problem of high inflation. A time series covering the period 1975-2010 is used to analyze if the United Arab Emirates has experienced symptoms of the disease. Results show that the country has experienced some symptoms of the Dutch Disease during the period

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