PRESS NOTE ON

QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE SECOND QUARTER (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12

CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE
MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

1 PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Dated the 9 Agrahayana, 1933 Saka 30 November, 2011 PRESS NOTE ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE SECOND QUARTER (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2011-12, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP. 2. The estimates of Quarterly GDP for the years 2009-10 and 2010-11 have been revised on account of using the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 2004-05 released by CSO on 10th June 2011. The revisions are mainly in mining, manufacturing, electricity and trade, hotels and restaurant sectors in GDP. Estimates of components of expenditure side of GDP have also been revised, accordingly. 3. I (a) The details of the estimates are presented below. ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY At constant (2004-05) prices

4. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q2 of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 12,27,254 crore as against Rs. 11,48,472 crore in Q2 of 2010-11, showing a growth rate of 6.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year. 5. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11 are, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ at 9.8 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 9.9 per cent and ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 10.5 per cent. The estimated growth rates in other economic activities in this quarter are 3.2 per cent in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, 2.7 per cent in ‘manufacturing’ and 4.3 per cent in ‘construction’ and 6.6 per cent in ‘community, social and personal services’. The growth of ‘mining and quarrying’ sector declined to (- )2.9 per cent during this period. The decrease in the growth of GDP in second quarter of 2011-12 is largely due to the negative growth in ‘mining and quarrying’ and steep fall in the growth of manufacturing sector, as compared to their levels of growth in Q2 of 2010-11. 6. According to the First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for 2011-12 released by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation on 16.9.2011, the production of rice and oilseeds is expected to grow by 8.0% and 0.2% respectively whereas the production of coarse cereals and pulses is expected to decline by (-) 6.2% and (-) 9.7% respectively, during the Kharif season of 201112 as compared to the production of these crops in the Kharif season of 2010-11. Apart from production of kharif crops, the growth in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the anticipated production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which show growth in the range of 3-4%.

2 7. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 2.7 per cent, 3.1 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12, as compared to the growth rates of 6.3 per cent, 7.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent in these industries in Q2 of 2010-11. 8. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 6.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12. 9. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rates of 3.5 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12. In the transport and communication sectors, the sales of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, passenger handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of 21.3 per cent, 0.9 per cent, 17.2 per cent and 36.4 percent, respectively in Q2 of 201112 over Q2 of 2010-11. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 21.1 per cent and 23.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11. (b) At current prices

10. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2011-12, is estimated at Rs. 19,55,880 crore, as against Rs. 16,85,793 crore in Q2, 2010-11, showing an increase of 16.0 per cent. 11. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 9.0 per cent, 7.7 per cent, (-)0.2 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2011-12, over Q2 of 2010-11. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 9.2 per cent during Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11. II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP 12. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices. Private Final Consumption Expenditure 13. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 12,43,681 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 10,71,221 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 7,85,463 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 7,41,624 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 59.6 per cent and 59.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.4 per cent and 59.9 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2010-11. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 14. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2,22,356 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,96,498 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,40,883 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,35,400 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 10.7 per cent each as against the corresponding rates of 10.9 per cent each in Q2 of 2010-11.

3 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 5,84,236 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 5,45,660 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (200405) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4,02,994 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 4,05,567 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 28.0 per cent and 30.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.3 per cent and 32.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2010-11. 16. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 at constant (200405) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8. 17. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2011 (Q3 of 2011-12) will be on 29.02.2012.

4 STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP AT FACTOR COST IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at 2004-05 prices)
(Rs. in crore) Industry Q1 1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 2. mining and quarrying 3. manufacturing 4. electricity, gas and water supply 5. construction 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 8. community, social and personal services GDP at factor cost 157,064 24,547 165,950 21,998 86,858 267,362 Gross Domestic Product 2009-10 Q2 124,859 23,620 174,236 22,273 85,827 282,295 Q1 160,771 26,354 183,488 23,204 93,514 299,600 2010-11 Q2 131,550 25,509 187,763 22,894 91,556 311,166 Q1 167,091 26,832 196,699 25,042 94,639 337,872 2011-12 Q2 135,789 24,774 192,849 25,137 95,489 342,080 Q1 2.4 7.4 10.6 5.5 7.7 12.1 Percentage change over previous year 2010-11 Q2 5.4 8.0 7.8 2.8 6.7 10.2 2011-12 Q1 3.9 1.8 7.2 7.9 1.2 12.8 Q2 3.2 -2.9 2.7 9.8 4.3 9.9

187,575

189,614

205,870

208,644

224,574

230,627

9.8

10.0

9.1

10.5

134,508 1,045,861

157,039 1,059,763

145,485 1,138,286

169,390 1,148,472

153,589 1,226,339

180,511 1,227,254

8.2 8.8

7.9 8.4

5.6 7.7

6.6 6.9

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at 2004-05 prices)

(Rs. in crore) Item Q1 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 4. Change in Stocks 5. Valuables 6. Exports 7. Less Imports 8. Discrepancies GDP at market prices Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product 2009-10 Q2 Q1 2010-11 Q2 Q1 2011-12 Q2

RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%) 2010-11 Q1 Q2 2011-12 Q1 Q2

683,395

680,687

748,395

741,624

795,682

785,463

61.7

59.9

60.5

59.5

125,699

127,296

134,161

135,400

136,935

140,883

11.1

10.9

10.4

10.7

342,555 40,069 22,080 234,642 304,740 -32,040 1,111,659

367,781 42,069 24,613 237,284 320,154 -20,406 1,139,170

380,544 43,788 29,240 257,587 351,037 -30,058 1,212,620

405,567 44,808 29,984 262,098 356,753 -25,117 1,237,610

410,533 45,852 40,723 320,247 433,824 -755 1,315,395

402,994 45,499 37,681 333,947 395,512 -29,918 1,321,038

31.4 3.6 2.4 21.2 28.9 -2.5 100

32.8 3.6 2.4 21.2 28.8 -2.0 100

31.2 3.5 3.1 24.3 33.0 -0.1 100

30.5 3.4 2.9 25.3 29.9 -2.3 100

5 STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP AT FACTOR COST IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at current prices)

(Rs. in crore) Industry Q1 1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 2. mining and quarrying 3. manufacturing 4. electricity, gas and water supply 5. construction 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 8. community, social and personal services GDP at factor cost Gross Domestic Product 2009-10 Q2 Q1 2010-11 Q2 Q1 2011-12 Q2 Q1

Percentage change over previous year 2010-11 Q2 2011-12 Q1 Q2

237,751 35,880 205,874 22,480 117,722 321,706 242,192 185,058 1,368,663

200,035 36,665 218,387 23,281 119,527 346,017 250,744 225,352 1,420,008

300,298 45,519 243,533 25,342 140,084 387,399 293,512 224,023 1,659,708

253,965 44,449 250,239 25,404 139,320 404,487 300,952 266,976 1,685,793

350,405 52,074 277,193 27,423 155,080 466,959 349,665 258,325 1,937,123

294,349 50,589 274,314 27,835 159,209 475,291 362,963 311,330 1,955,880

26.3 26.9 18.3 12.7 19.0 20.4 21.2 21.1 21.3

27.0 21.2 14.6 9.1 16.6 16.9 20.0 18.5 18.7

16.7 14.4 13.8 8.2 10.7 20.5 19.1 15.3 16.7

15.9 13.8 9.6 9.6 14.3 17.5 20.6 16.6 16.0

STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at current prices)

(Rs. in crore) Item 2009-10 Q1 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Change in Stocks Valuables Exports Less Imports Discrepancies Q2 Q1 Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product 2010-11 Q2 Q1 2011-12 Q2

RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%) 2010-11 Q1 Q2 2011-12 Q1 Q2

849,660 161,894 432,495 48,959 27,857 296,191 356,540 -23,026 1,437,489

886,616 167,714 467,606 51,934 31,478 306,820 383,218 -24,105 1,504,844

1,029,527 195,413 512,457 61,026 40,779 365,290 453,521 4,372 1,755,341

1,071,221 196,498 545,660 62,706 42,388 374,264 463,086 -27,693 1,801,957

1,197,461 217,483 585,261 70,086 79,965 493,936 602,835 20,583 2,061,940

1,243,681 222,356 584,236 70,207 75,004 520,210 558,603 -71,777 2,085,315

58.7 11.1 29.2 3.5 2.3 20.8 25.8 0.2 100

59.4 10.9 30.3 3.5 2.4 20.8 25.7 -1.5 100

58.1 10.5 28.4 3.4 3.9 24.0 29.2 1.0 100

59.6 10.7 28.0 3.4 3.6 24.9 26.8 -3.4 100

GDP at market prices

6 STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GDP IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at 2004-05 prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Industry 1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 2. mining and quarrying 3. manufacturing 4. electricity, gas and water supply 5. construction 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 8. community, social and GDP at factor cost Gross Domestic Product in H1 of 2009-10 281,923 48,167 340,186 44,271 172,685 549,657 377,189 291,547 2,105,625 2010-11 292,321 51,863 371,251 46,098 185,070 610,766 414,514 314,875 2,286,758 2011-12 302,880 51,606 389,548 50,179 190,128 679,952 455,201 334,100 2,453,592 Percentage change Over previous year H1 2010-11 3.7 7.7 9.1 4.1 7.2 11.1 9.9 8.0 8.6 2011-12 3.6 -0.5 4.9 8.9 2.7 11.3 9.8 6.1 7.3

STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at 2004-05 prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Item Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1 2009-10 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Change in Stocks Valuables Exports Less Imports Discrepancies 1,364,082 252,995 710,336 82,138 46,693 471,926 624,894 -52,446 2,250,830 2010-11 1,490,019 269,561 786,111 88,596 59,224 519,685 707,790 -55,175 2,450,230 2011-12 1,581,145 277,818 813,527 91,351 78,404 654,194 829,336 -30,673 2,636,431 Rates of GDP at market prices (%) in H1 2010-11 60.8 11.0 32.1 3.6 2.4 21.2 28.9 -2.3 100 2011-12 60.0 10.5 30.9 3.5 3.0 24.8 31.5 -1.2 100

GDP at market prices

7 STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GDP IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at current prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Gross Domestic Product in H1 of 2009-10 1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 2. mining and quarrying 3. manufacturing 4. electricity, gas and water supply 5. construction 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 8. community, social and personal services GDP at factor cost 437,786 72,545 424,261 45,761 237,249 667,723 492,936 410,410 2,788,671 2010-11 554,263 89,968 493,772 50,746 279,404 791,886 594,464 490,999 3,345,503 2011-12 644,754 102,663 551,507 55,258 314,289 942,250 712,628 569,655 3,893,004 Percentage change over previous year H1 2010-11 26.6 24.0 16.4 10.9 17.8 18.6 20.6 19.6 20.0 2011-12 16.3 14.1 11.7 8.9 12.5 19.0 19.9 16.0 16.4

Industry

STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at current prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1 Item 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Change in Stocks Valuables Exports Less Imports Discrepancies GDP at market prices
H1: April- September

Rates of GDP at market prices (%) in H1 201011 59.1 11.0 29.7 3.5 2.3 20.8 25.8 -0.7 100 2011-12 58.9 10.6 28.2 3.4 3.7 24.5 28.0 -1.2 100

2009-10 1,736,276 329,608 900,101 100,893 59,335 603,011 739,758 -47,131 2,942,334

2010-11 2,100,748 391,911 1,058,117 123,732 83,167 739,554 916,607 -23,321 3,557,300

2011-12 2,441,142 439,839 1,169,497 140,293 154,969 1,014,146 1,161,438 -51,194 4,147,255