J Popul Econ 18:719–740 (2005) DOI 10.1007/s00148-005-0015-1

ORIGIN AL PAPER

Timothy J. Hatton

Explaining trends in UK immigration

Received: 11 February 2004 / Accepted: 6 December 2004 / Published online: 22 November 2005 © Springer-Verlag 2005

Abstract Since the 1970s Britain has gone from being a country of net emigration to one of net immigration, with a trend increase in immigration of more than 100,000 per year. This paper represents the first attempt to model the variations in net migration for British and for foreign citizens, across countries and over time. A simple economic model, which includes the selection effects of differing income distributions at home and abroad, largely accounts for the variations in the data. The results suggest that although improved economic performance in the UK relative to overseas has tended to increase immigration, rising UK inequality has had an even larger effect. Immigration policies at home and abroad have also increased net immigration, particularly in the 1990s. Keywords Immigration . Emigration . Immigration policy JEL Classification F22 . J61 . J78 1 Introduction In the last 20 years the UK has become a country of net immigration. During the 1960s and 1970s, emigration exceeded immigration so that net immigration was persistently negative. Since then net immigration has progressively increased. The best available measure of long-term trends indicates an increase in the annual net immigration from −24 thousand in the early 1970s to 89 thousand in the late 1990s —a total increase of 113 thousand. Recent trends are even more dramatic. From the trough in 1991–1993 to the peak of 1998–2000, net immigration surged by more than 100 thousand per annum.
Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann T. J. Hatton (*) University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK, and School of Economics, Faculty of