...Peak Oil Contrary to popular belief, your car may not have gas forever. In the 50s, M. King Hubbert predicted what is now known as the Hubbert Peak Theory. Over time, oil production will increase until it reaches the highest possible point, peak oil, then oil production will decrease forever. Hubbert's Hypothesis was tested in the 1970s when (he believed) oil production in the United States reached its peak and has steadily begun to decrease over time, with the exception of the discovery of the Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska (the last major oil field discovered on March 12, 1968.) Peak oil would mean a decline in not only gas powered vehicles but also oil products, such as gas used to heat homes and plastics used in everything from clothes and household products. However, many experts still debate when peak oil will occur. Optimistic predictions regarding when there will be a global decline in oil or the point of global peak production are around the year 2020 or later. Negative predictions regarding peak oil, argue that the peak has either already occurred or is right around the corner. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), production of conventional crude oil actually peaked around 2006. Unfortunately, we will continue to see a steep decline in our natural oil reserves. The IEA predicts less developed nations will account for 93 percent of the projected increase in world energy demand. China, in particular, is projected to account for 39 percent of rising...
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...Peak Oil The Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil field to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. Early in the curve or pre-peak, the production rate increases due to an increase in the discovery rate of oil deposits and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve or post-peak, the production rate declines due to resource depletion. The Hubbert peak theory is based on the fundamental observation that the amount of oil under the ground is finite. Peak Oil refers to the peak of the entire planet’s oil production. After Peak Oil, according to the Hubbert peak theory, the rate of oil production on earth will enter a terminal decline. At present, many experts still debate whether “peak oil is dead” (Washington Post, 2013). In short, some analysts declare its departure since new technologies are now being used to extract crude from hard-to-reach sources (e.g., from tar sands of Alberta to North Dakota), “and after decades of decline, United States (US) oil production has risen to its highest levels since the 1900s,” says Brad Plumer of the Washington Post. Not everyone’s convinced, however, that oil is really on the verge of a new boom. Energy analyst, Chris Nelder, for one, argues that “our new found resources aren’t nearly as promising as they first appear. And Peak Oil is still as relevant as ever.” He goes on to say that, “there has always been a...
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...Resource Depletion and Peak Oil Peak oil and resource depletion are two very real issues that our world is facing. These issues are controversial topics and this report is going to critically analyse these concerns. Firstly, we will look at what the peak oil and climate change theories are and then discuss the on-going debate from opposing sides of the arguments for and against the peak oil theory. We will examine how these two issues are intertwined and identify the key consequences facing society. Then the current evidence that is proof of the early stages of both issues. The second part of this report will be based on a post peak oil paradigm and how the effects of peak oil, climate change and economic contraction will have on the direct investment in low density suburban property market. Firstly we will look at the concept of peak oil. The peak oil theory arose in 1956, when M. King Hubbert addressed the United States Oil Convention. His theory observed the production rates of individual oil reserves and how the production rate would increase at an exponential growth, reach a point and then decline rapidly, producing a bell shaped curve, now referred to as Hubbert’s curve. His prediction was that the United States oil reserves will reach its peak in 1970, and then decline rapidly as the demand increased and then become totally depleted. His theory was met with ridicule, however in the 1970’s the US reached its peak of 10 million barrels per day, and has been in decline...
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...see these firms as key "tells" for the energy market. One such firm is oil services giant Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB). The reason I watch this stock so carefully and listen to all of management's conference calls and presentations is that Schlumberger has its hands in every region of the world and in every conceivable type of oil project currently underway. If you're looking for the 35,000-foot view of the oil market, Schlumberger is your best bet. The era of cheap oil and natural gas is over and we're in the middle of one of the most powerful bull market cycles of the 21st century. There are no major pockets of untapped "easy" oil left to be exploited. In other words, the easy and cheap-to-recover onshore oil fields are mature and, for the most part, already seeing declining production. The world's new potential growth plays in oil: deepwater reserves, Artic reserves, oil sands and other technically more-difficult-to-produce reserves. For such resources to be developed, crude oil prices will need to average well north of $55 per barrel. There's a distinction to be made between the idea that the world is running out of oil and the concept of the end of easy oil. The world will never truly run out of oil; the last barrel of oil will never even be produced. The simple fact is that production from a reserve tops out long before that reserve is even halfway produced. Just because there's a good deal more oil left in the ground doesn't mean you can produce it quickly or even that...
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...The Impacts of End of Oil on Society Name Institution Affiliation The Impacts of End of Oil on Society Oil is a scarce natural resource with a high demand. Oil production is only in a few countries across the world. It is the most common form of energy used in societies. It accounts for 33 percent of worldwide energy usage. Oil is the preferable form of energy because it is readily refined and contains high-energy content. It is not easily substitutable with other forms of energy. Oil is not a renewable source of energy. Peak oil is approaching. The available oil will not be enough to meet the market demand. Constant oil supply is important to run most aspects of the society. The end of oil will have negative impacts on society. Inflation is the greatest impact of peak oil in anticipation. Price levels will increase rapidly. The demand of oil will surpass the supply. This will trigger an increase in oil prices subject to the law of demand. Most aspects of humanity depend on oil. A reflection of the increasing effect will be notable in most of the commodities that require oil in the production process. Food prices will increase. This is because of an increase in transportation and production costs. This will have a negative impact on the standards of living across many societies. Commodities will be too expensive to purchase. Peak oil will cause a reduction in economic activities across many societies. Effective running...
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...energy supply and emerging needs. If corrective measures are not effectively anticipated significant constraints start emerging for development activities. The rise in global energy demand has raised questions regarding energy security and increased the focus on diversification, generation and efficient allocation. The answer lies in the attainment of optimal energy mix through fuel substitution by promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy and interregional co-operation. However, oil and natural gas will continue to be the world’s top two energy sources through 2040; accounting for about 60 percent of global demand. Gas being the fastest growing major fuel source over this period is expected to grow at 1.6 percent per year from 2010 to 2040 as estimated by “The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040” is given in Figure-14.1. Figure 14.1: Global energy demand by fuel type (Quadrillion BTUs) 250 Quadrillions British Thermal Units 2010 200 150 100 2040 2040 2010 From its peak in 2025, coal will decline by more than 10 percent of total Hydro/Geo 2010 2040 Latin America and China are the biggest users of hydro power, which makes up over 80 percent of total Hydro/Geo supplies 2040 50 0 2010 2010 2040 2010 2040 2010 2040 Source: The Outlook for Energy: Aview to 2040 Pakistan’s economy has been growing at an average growth rate of almost 3 percent for the last four years and demand of energy both at production and consumer end is increasing...
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...Critical and Creative Thinking |1. |Oil production in the United States satisfies only half of the country's needs; the rest is imported. If imports were cut | | |off, what changes would you expect to occur in your lifestyle? | Answer: If oil imports were cut off, the changes to my lifestyle and to the United States would be devastating. Gasoline prices would skyrocket. This would force me and others to curtail our driving. I might have to rely on public transportation; however, the cost of said transportation would also increase. There would be gas rationing as the government would need to have gas for the military and other essentials to keep the government running. Prices for other goods such as food would also increase as it would become more expensive to ship items from place to place. I also believe that crime will increase due to desperation in some people. |2. |Investigate how geophysicist M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that annual U.S. oil production would peak in the early | | |1970s (the actual peak occurred in 1971). Also, investigate the debate over whether the same predictive technique can be | | |applied to world oil supplies. When do you think world oil production will reach its peak—or has it done so already? | | |Answer: According to Kuwaiti scientists, global oil production will peak in 2014 (Hsu, 2010). These scientists used some| | |of Hubbert’s...
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...Why commodity markets were started The first recorded instance of futures trading occurred with rice in 17th Century Japan. There is some evidence that there may also have been rice futures traded in China as long as 6,000 years ago. Futures’ trading is a natural outgrowth of the problems of maintaining a year-round supply of seasonal products like agricultural crops. In Japan, merchants stored rice in warehouses for future use. In order to raise cash, warehouse holders sold receipts against the stored rice. These were known as "rice tickets." Eventually, such rice tickets became accepted as a kind of general commercial currency. Rules came into being to standardize the trading in rice tickets. These rules were similar to the current rules of American futures trading. In the United States, futures trading started in the grain markets in the middle of the 19th Century. The Chicago Board of Trade was established in 1848. In the 1870s and 1880s the New York Coffee, Cotton and Produce Exchanges were born. Today there are ten commodity exchanges in the United States. The largest are the Chicago Board of Trade, The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the New York Mercantile Exchange, the New York Commodity Exchange and the New York Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange. Worldwide there are major futures trading exchanges in over twenty countries including Canada, England, France, Singapore, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. The products traded range from agricultural staples like Corn and...
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...Peak Potash? Utilizing available resources has allowed for great expansion in the global food production industry. The use of fertilizers has enabled increased production but has also caused a reliance on potash, a non-renewable resource. The article titled "Peak Potash – What Our Government Doesn't Want Us to Know," argues that global production of potash has already peaked on the Hubbert cycle and inevitably the industry will collapse in the near future. Evidence presented in the article is brief, but proves that relying on non-renewable resources is not sustainable. The complex issues of resource management are revealed by the article, but the article doesn’t mention irregularities in data or how the Hubbert Linearization (HL) is an approximation that often changes. After reviewing the articles references and other sources it is clear that there are issues in sustaining current usage of fertilizers in the food production industry. However, these problems may be somewhat exaggerated in this specific paper. The graphs created using data from the US Geological Survey 2009 show how production has increased significantly over the past 80 years, yet they also show how forecasting future production is very difficult task. If the production graph was analyzed in 1992, one might argue that production had already peaked and that the industry was facing a steady decline. However, this decline proved to be only an inconsistency in the Hubbert curve as production climbed...
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...Robert Hoefer Professor Arenson English 101 17 July 2012 Common Ground Essay The first commercial coal mine in America was started in the 1748. ("History of US Coal Use.") The first commercial oil well in the United States was drilled in 1859. (Yergin, 7) These two fossil fuels were the power behind the American Industrial Revolution, and wealth behind Edward Berwind and John Rockefeller(Brinkley, 435), respectively, that continue to provide power and fuel in present day society. Natural gas is another fossil fuel that helps to provide for the needs of today. Oil, coal, and gas companies tout new technologies that make their products cleaner and safer for the environment. Opponents of fossil fuels say there is no way to burn them cleanly. Proponents for fossil fuels believe there are plenty of reserves to keep America running on fossil fuels for years to come. Advocates for newer technologies, “green” technologies, such as solar power, geothermal energy, and biofuels claim that the time to move on from these fossil fuels has arrived. The new energy sources claim to be renewable so as to never run out. (E.g., the sun would have to supernova for solar power to run out.) They believe the point of “Peak Oil”- the point at which worldwide oil production begins to decline, has already passed and the country will need their new technologies to keep pace during the changing of the energy guard. There are many lenses through which to look at the use of all these energy sources...
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...University of Phoenix GLG220 Week 5 Assignment 1. | Oil production in the United States satisfies only half of the country's needs; the rest is imported. If imports were cut off, what changes would you expect to occur in your lifestyle? * Fuel costs would skyrocket I believe much would change in my lifestyle, I would think twice about running to the store, we would have to coordinate all of our outings since we do not have public transportation available. Possibly do more carpooling. | | | 2. | Investigate how geophysicist M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that annual U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s (the actual peak occurred in 1971). Also, investigate the debate over whether the same predictive technique can be applied to world oil supplies. When do you think world oil production will reach its peak—or has it done so already?I believe that the world oil peak production is almost at its peak now. It is possible that within the next decade or so we will be in search of alternatives as to where we could survive without oil. Finding a way to use renewable resources in place of oil would make the US not depend so much on other countries for oil. | | | 3. | Many hydrothermal mineral deposits of copper, gold, silver, and other metals have been found in the countries bordering the Pacific Ocean. Can you offer an explanation for this remarkable concentration? If you were part of a team of exploration geologists looking for large copper...
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...Going Green Using the Power of Wind Kimberly Whitaker SCI 207 Shameema Sarker August 5, 2012 I. Introduction A. Thesis Statement With so much concern about reaching the peak in oil production on the world's mind, as well as the worry for the effects that humans are having on the environment, wind power is one of the greenest options available to replace oil. II. Body paragraph #1 - Topic Sentence #1 The way humans have been living for thousands of years has had a devastating effect on the environment. A. Supporting Evidence The use of fossil fuels, especially coal is destroying the environment because it releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and the extraction of these fossil fuels has a devastating effect on the environment. (Turk & Bensel, 2011) B. Explanation Fossil fuels are nonrenewable because once they are extracted from the earth and burned or used, they can never be replenished in over a thousand years. (Turk & Bensel, 2011) C. Further Explanation The use of fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which is destroying the quality of air, changing the climate, and destroying our aquatic ecosystems. D. So What? While there may be enough fossil fuels for humans to use for the next fifty to one- hundred years, eventually these resources will end up being used up and there will be none left for future generations, who will need a different source of energy to be able to...
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...The Special Period Cuba has a very real story to share with the entire world, it happened to them in mid 1990s when the Cuban economy treaty with the Soviet Union crashed. This caused Cuba’s all oil imports to stop completely and their economy took a free-fall. Little had the world known that this was the beginning of the modern crisis and someday the whole world will have to face the same fate? The end of associations with Soviet Union caused Cuba’s oil import to stop abruptly, which lead to major problems in the country, one of the major problem was scarcity of food; people in the country were literally starving due to the lack of food. This was the time Cuba started to set example for the rest of the world by starting a very successful green revolution, as an answer to their on going crisis of facing the “Peak Oil”. Peak oil is the point in time when the global production of oil will reach its, maximum rate, after which production will gradually decline. Peak oil crisis is faced because there is a finite amount of resource, and the production of these resources will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production; and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output, and the graph will be a bell shaped which indicates a peak but after which there is no increase but only a steep decline. This elevated crisis in the Cuba caused Cuba to face its “Special Period”. Cubans had to find a way to survive and come out of the crisis and the first step they took was to...
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...Oil reserves to run dry by 2036 Fri, May 9, 1997, 01:00 Dick Ahlstrom GLOBAL oil reserves will be gone by 2036 and the economic and social implications of this demand serious planning by world governments now, according to a US researcher. Difficulties will come much sooner, however, as producer countries reach their peak output levels and oil production declines in the face of growing demand, argues Dr Craig Bond Hatfield of the department of geology at the University of Toledo in Ohio. "Global oil production will peak and begin its decline during the first or second decade of the 21st century," he writes in the current issue of the science journal, Nature. "Despite the intensive, inter-governmental debates on the environmental effects of energy policies, geological constraints on the amount of (oil) that can be produced will soon override governments' decisions about future rates of fossil-fuel burning." US production peaked in 1970 and has been in decline since, and Russian production fell after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Growth in North Sea, Latin American and Asian production just offsets the US and Russian decline, but geological data indicate that this group "will remain incapable of significant, sustained growth and is likely to begin a permanent decline" in production early in the 21st century. The 16 per cent growth in global oil consumption between 1985 and 1995, from 59.7 million to 69 million barrels a day, was therefore "supplied almost entirely...
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...researchers, used IEA’s same “bottom-up” data, have now stated the IEA was wildly optimistic. The Global Energy Systems Group has concluded the world actually reached Peak Oil in 2008, and global oil production will now begin to decline. Investment alone cannot fix the problem as the decline rates of existing fields are accelerating (Romm, 2010).The first alternative to the oil as a source of energy is the Hydropower. Hydropower is America’s leading renewable energy resource. Of all the renewable power sources, it is the most reliable, efficient and economical. TVA maintains 29 conventional hydroelectric dams throughout the Tennessee River system and one pumped-storage facility for the production of electricity (TVA.gov). Numerous institutional barriers exist, the main one being, in many countries, the difficulty in getting the concession to use and divert water from the river (and the renewal of the concession after the concession Period). Difficulties in gaining affordable connections to the grid are also common, as are very long procedures in order to get all permits since hydro operators have to deal with many administrations. The second alternative is solar water heating. Solar water heating, typically offsets fossil fuel combustion, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants. Systems can help reduce peak loads, thereby postponing or preventing the need for additional base load energy generation and distribution infrastructure, such as new hydroelectric dams, coal-fired...
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