...THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers...
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...___________________________ LIVING HISTORY Hillary Rodham Clinton Simon & Schuster New York • London • Toronto • Sydney • Singapore To my parents, my husband, my daughter and all the good souls around the world whose inspiration, prayers, support and love blessed my heart and sustained me in the years of living history. AUTHOR’S NOTE In 1959, I wrote my autobiography for an assignment in sixth grade. In twenty-nine pages, most half-filled with earnest scrawl, I described my parents, brothers, pets, house, hobbies, school, sports and plans for the future. Forty-two years later, I began writing another memoir, this one about the eight years I spent in the White House living history with Bill Clinton. I quickly realized that I couldn’t explain my life as First Lady without going back to the beginning―how I became the woman I was that first day I walked into the White House on January 20, 1993, to take on a new role and experiences that would test and transform me in unexpected ways. By the time I crossed the threshold of the White House, I had been shaped by my family upbringing, education, religious faith and all that I had learned before―as the daughter of a staunch conservative father and a more liberal mother, a student activist, an advocate for children, a lawyer, Bill’s wife and Chelsea’s mom. For each chapter, there were more ideas I wanted to discuss than space allowed; more people to include than could be named; more places visited than could be described...
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...this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Send all inquiries to: Glencoe/McGraw-Hill 936 Eastwind Drive Westerville, Ohio 43081 ISBN 0-02-818294-4 Printed in the United States of America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 024 03 02 01 00 99 Contents Handbook of Definitions and Rules .........................1 Troubleshooter ........................................................21 Part 1 Grammar ......................................................45 Unit 1 Parts of Speech 1.1 Nouns: Singular, Plural, and Collective ....47 1.2 Nouns: Proper and Common; Concrete and Abstract.................................49 1.3 Pronouns: Personal and Possessive; Reflexive and Intensive...............................51 1.4 Pronouns: Interrogative and Relative; Demonstrative and Indefinite .....................53 1.5 Verbs: Action (Transitive/Intransitive) ......55 1.6 Verbs: Linking .............................................57 1.7 Verb Phrases ................................................59 1.8 Adjectives ....................................................61 1.9 Adverbs........................................................63 1.10 Prepositions.................................................69 1.11 Conjunctions: Coordinating, Correlative, and Subordinating; Interjections ................71 Unit 1 Review ..........................................................73 Cumulative...
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...official seeks elective national office, his (or her) reputation and what the country knows about the candidate’s background is initially determined by the work of local and regional media. Generally, those journalists do a competent job of reporting on the prospect’s record. In the case of Governor George W. Bush, Texas reporters had written numerous stories about his failed businesses in the oil patch, the dubious land grab and questionable funding behind a new stadium for Bush’s baseball team, the Texas Rangers, and his various political contradictions and hypocrisies while serving in Austin. I was one of those Texas journalists. I spent about a decade trying to find accurate information on Bush’s record in the Texas National Guard. My curiosity had been prompted by his failure to adequately answer a question I had asked him as a panelist in a televised debate with Ann Richards during the 1994 gubernatorial campaign. Eventually I published three books on Bush and his political consigliere, Karl Rove. During Bush’s presidency, many other...
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...Advance Edited Version Distr. GENERAL A/HRC/12/48 15 September 2009 Original: ENGLISH HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL Twelfth session Agenda item 7 HUMAN RIGHTS IN PALESTINE AND OTHER OCCUPIED ARAB TERRITORIES Report of the United Nations Fact Finding Mission on the Gaza Conflict ∗ ∗ Late submission A/HRC/12/48 page 2 Paragraphs Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PART ONE INTRODUCTION I. II. III. METHODOLOGY CONTEXT EVENTS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE “CEASEFIRE” OF 18 JUNE 2008 BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE GAZA AUTHORITIES AND THE START OF ISRAEL’S MILITARY OPERATIONS IN GAZA ON 27 DECEMBER 2008 IV. APPLICABLE LAW PART TWO OCCUPIED PALESTINIAN TERRITORY: THE GAZA STRIP Section A V. VI. THE BLOCKADE: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW OVERVIEW OF MILITARY OPERATIONS CONDUCTED BY ISRAEL IN GAZA BETWEEN 27 DECEMBER 2008 AND 18 JANUARY 2009 AND DATA ON CASUALTIES ATTACKS ON GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS AND POLICE VIII. OBLIGATION ON PALESTINIAN ARMED GROUPS IN GAZA TO TAKE FEASIBLE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THE CIVILIAN POPULATION VII. A/HRC/12/48 page 3 IX. OBLIGATION ON ISRAEL TO TAKE FEASIBLE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT CIVILIAN POPULATION AND CIVILIAN OBECTS IN GAZA X. INDISCRIMINATE ATTACKS BY ISRAELI ARMED FORCES RESULTING IN THE LOSS OF LIFE AND INJURY TO CIVILIANS XI. DELIBERATE ATTACKS AGAINST THE CIVILIAN POPULATION XII. THE USE OF CERTAIN WEAPONS XIII. ATTACKS ON THE FOUNDATIONS OF CIVILIAN LIFE IN GAZA: DESTRUCTION OF INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE, FOOD PRODUCTION, WATER INSTALLATIONS, SEWAGE...
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...E SSAYS ON TWENTIETH-C ENTURY H ISTORY In the series Critical Perspectives on the Past, edited by Susan Porter Benson, Stephen Brier, and Roy Rosenzweig Also in this series: Paula Hamilton and Linda Shopes, eds., Oral History and Public Memories Tiffany Ruby Patterson, Zora Neale Hurston and a History of Southern Life Lisa M. Fine, The Story of Reo Joe: Work, Kin, and Community in Autotown, U.S.A. Van Gosse and Richard Moser, eds., The World the Sixties Made: Politics and Culture in Recent America Joanne Meyerowitz, ed., History and September 11th John McMillian and Paul Buhle, eds., The New Left Revisited David M. Scobey, Empire City: The Making and Meaning of the New York City Landscape Gerda Lerner, Fireweed: A Political Autobiography Allida M. Black, ed., Modern American Queer History Eric Sandweiss, St. Louis: The Evolution of an American Urban Landscape Sam Wineburg, Historical Thinking and Other Unnatural Acts: Charting the Future of Teaching the Past Sharon Hartman Strom, Political Woman: Florence Luscomb and the Legacy of Radical Reform Michael Adas, ed., Agricultural and Pastoral Societies in Ancient and Classical History Jack Metzgar, Striking Steel: Solidarity Remembered Janis Appier, Policing Women: The Sexual Politics of Law Enforcement and the LAPD Allen Hunter, ed., Rethinking the Cold War Eric Foner, ed., The New American History. Revised and Expanded Edition E SSAYS ON _ T WENTIETH- C ENTURY H ISTORY Edited by ...
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...MARKETING 7E People real Choices This page intentionally left blank MARKETING 7E People real Choices Michael R. SAINT JOSEPH S SOLOMON ’ U OLLINS NIVERSITY Greg W. MARSHALL R C OLLEGE Elnora W. THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE STUART Prentice Hall Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto Delhi Mexico City Sao Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo Editorial Director: Sally Yagan Editor in Chief: Eric Svendsen Acquisitions Editor: Melissa Sabella Director of Editorial Services: Ashley Santora Editorial Project Manager: Kierra Bloom Editorial Assistant: Elisabeth Scarpa Director of Marketing: Patrice Lumumba Jones Senior Marketing Manager: Anne Fahlgren Marketing Assistant: Melinda Jensen Senior Managing Editor: Judy Leale Project Manager: Becca Richter Senior Operations Supervisor: Arnold Vila Creative Director: Jon Christiana Senior Art Director: Blair Brown Text and Cover Designer: Blair Brown Media Project Manager, Production: Lisa Rinaldi Media Project Manager, Editorial: Denise Vaughn Full-Service Project Management: S4Carlisle Publishing Services Composition: S4Carlisle Publishing Services Printer/Bindery: Courier/Kendalville Cover Printer: Courier/Kendalville Text Font: Palatino Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and reproduced, with permission, in this textbook appear on appropriate page within text. Microsoft®...
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...MARKETING 7E People real Choices This page intentionally left blank MARKETING 7E People real Choices Michael R. SAINT JOSEPH S SOLOMON ’ U OLLINS NIVERSITY Greg W. MARSHALL R C OLLEGE Elnora W. THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE STUART Prentice Hall Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto Delhi Mexico City Sao Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo Editorial Director: Sally Yagan Editor in Chief: Eric Svendsen Acquisitions Editor: Melissa Sabella Director of Editorial Services: Ashley Santora Editorial Project Manager: Kierra Bloom Editorial Assistant: Elisabeth Scarpa Director of Marketing: Patrice Lumumba Jones Senior Marketing Manager: Anne Fahlgren Marketing Assistant: Melinda Jensen Senior Managing Editor: Judy Leale Project Manager: Becca Richter Senior Operations Supervisor: Arnold Vila Creative Director: Jon Christiana Senior Art Director: Blair Brown Text and Cover Designer: Blair Brown Media Project Manager, Production: Lisa Rinaldi Media Project Manager, Editorial: Denise Vaughn Full-Service Project Management: S4Carlisle Publishing Services Composition: S4Carlisle Publishing Services Printer/Bindery: Courier/Kendalville Cover Printer: Courier/Kendalville Text Font: Palatino Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and reproduced, with permission, in this textbook appear on appropriate page within text. Microsoft®...
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...e eBook Collection Media and Culture 9e Ch01 This is a Protected PDF document. Please enter your user name and password to unlock the text. User Name: Password: Unlock Remember my user name and password. If you are experiencing problems unlocking this document or you have questions regarding Protectedpdf files please contact a Technical Support representative: In the United States: 1-877-832-4867 In Canada: 1-800-859-3682 Outside the U.S. and Canada: 1-602-387-2222 Email: technicalsupport@apollogrp.edu. kutsukaa varsinaista paivasta esittaa sananviejia rukoukseni asukkaita yllaan poissa ilmestyi rikokseen armoton ymmarsivatpitavat maksa joihin juutalaisia seitsemankymmenta valalla tahdet tehtavaan sijoittimiesta henkeani lie kymmenykset vuodessa kiittaa pienentaa pimeyden alttarit epailematta nait puuttumaan lait kategoriaan tyhjiin kolmen leiriytyivat itavalta syostaan juo niiden elavien johtavat profeetat kysymyksia muuten kuusi pahoilta puoleesi lunastanut korkeassa vrt kesalla hengissa ihmiset karpat paallikoita talloin pyhalle itavallassa lahestya ottaneet syksylla kas tarttunut aiheeseen viesti sovinnon ruokauhrin teiltaan minka jumal tehkoon tietamatta tuot jonkinlainen totesin kaskyt ylen valitset tyypin kasvattaakarppien mahdollista keskusteli totuudessa matkalaulu hengilta tuolloin isoisansa tekonsa valmistaa nauttivat itsensasaattavat naille vyota pahoin uhrilihaa hengella tietakaa entiseen hallitusmiehet kuolleiden tyttareni kaupunkeihin kuulet unohtui...
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...e eBook Collection Media and Culture 9e Ch01 This is a Protected PDF document. Please enter your user name and password to unlock the text. User Name: Password: Unlock Remember my user name and password. If you are experiencing problems unlocking this document or you have questions regarding Protectedpdf files please contact a Technical Support representative: In the United States: 1-877-832-4867 In Canada: 1-800-859-3682 Outside the U.S. and Canada: 1-602-387-2222 Email: technicalsupport@apollogrp.edu. kutsukaa varsinaista paivasta esittaa sananviejia rukoukseni asukkaita yllaan poissa ilmestyi rikokseen armoton ymmarsivatpitavat maksa joihin juutalaisia seitsemankymmenta valalla tahdet tehtavaan sijoittimiesta henkeani lie kymmenykset vuodessa kiittaa pienentaa pimeyden alttarit epailematta nait puuttumaan lait kategoriaan tyhjiin kolmen leiriytyivat itavalta syostaan juo niiden elavien johtavat profeetat kysymyksia muuten kuusi pahoilta puoleesi lunastanut korkeassa vrt kesalla hengissa ihmiset karpat paallikoita talloin pyhalle itavallassa lahestya ottaneet syksylla kas tarttunut aiheeseen viesti sovinnon ruokauhrin teiltaan minka jumal tehkoon tietamatta tuot jonkinlainen totesin kaskyt ylen valitset tyypin kasvattaakarppien mahdollista keskusteli totuudessa matkalaulu hengilta tuolloin isoisansa tekonsa valmistaa nauttivat itsensasaattavat naille vyota pahoin uhrilihaa hengella tietakaa entiseen hallitusmiehet kuolleiden tyttareni kaupunkeihin kuulet unohtui...
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...provided the source is acknowledged. Printed on 100% post-consumer recycled paper. Trade and Environment: A Resource Book The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD, http://www.iisd.org) contributes to sustainable development by advancing policy recommendations on international trade and investment, economic policy, climate change, measurement and assessment, and natural resources management. Through the Internet, we report on international negotiations and share knowledge gained through collaborative projects with global partners, resulting in more rigorous research, capacity building in developing countries and better dialogue between North and South. IISD’s vision is better living for all—sustainably; its mission is to champion innovation, enabling societies to live sustainably. IISD is registered as a charitable organization in Canada and has...
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...W O M E N ’ S C O M M I S S I O N for refugee women & children w U N TA P P E D P OT E N T I A L : Adolescents affected by armed conflict A review of programs and policies U N TA P P E D P OT E N T I A L : Adolescents affected by armed conflict A review of programs and policies Wo m e n ’s C o m m i s s i o n f o r R e f u g e e Wo m e n & C h i l d r e n N e w Yo r k W O M E N ’ S C O M M I S S I O N for refugee women & children Copyright © January 2000 by Women’s Commission for Refugee Women and Children All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 1-58030-000-6 Women’s Commission for Refugee Women and Children 122 East 42nd Street New York, NY 10168-1289 tel. 212.551.3111 or 3088 fax. 212.551.3180 e-mail: wcrwc@intrescom.org www.intrescom.org/wcrwc.html w cover photographs © Rachel K. Jones, Marc Sommers, Sarah Samson, Holly Myers, Anne-Sophie Rosette, International Rescue Committee M I S S I O N S TAT E M E N T The Women’s Commission for Refugee Women and Children seeks to improve the lives of refugee women and children through a vigorous program of public education and advocacy, and by acting as a technical resource. The Commission, founded in 1989 under the auspices of the International Rescue Committee, is the only organization in the United States dedicated solely to speaking out on behalf of women and children uprooted by armed conflict or persecution. Acknowledgments The Women’s Commission expresses its sincere...
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...c MARKETING 7E People real Choices This page intentionally left blank MARKETING 7E People real Choices Michael R. SAINT JOSEPH S SOLOMON ’ U OLLINS NIVERSITY Greg W. MARSHALL R C STUART OLLEGE Elnora W. THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE Prentice Hall Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto Delhi Mexico City Sao Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo Editorial Director: Sally Yagan Editor in Chief: Eric Svendsen Acquisitions Editor: Melissa Sabella Director of Editorial Services: Ashley Santora Editorial Project Manager: Kierra Bloom Editorial Assistant: Elisabeth Scarpa Director of Marketing: Patrice Lumumba Jones Senior Marketing Manager: Anne Fahlgren Marketing Assistant: Melinda Jensen Senior Managing Editor: Judy Leale Project Manager: Becca Richter Senior Operations Supervisor: Arnold Vila Creative Director: Jon Christiana Senior Art Director: Blair Brown Text and Cover Designer: Blair Brown Media Project Manager, Production: Lisa Rinaldi Media Project Manager, Editorial: Denise Vaughn Full-Service Project Management: S4Carlisle Publishing Services Composition: S4Carlisle Publishing Services Printer/Bindery: Courier/Kendalville Cover Printer: Courier/Kendalville Text Font: Palatino Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and reproduced, with permission, in this textbook...
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...In memory of Amos Tversky Contents Introduction Part I. Two Systems 1. The Characters of the Story 2. Attention and Effort 3. The Lazy Controller 4. The Associative Machine 5. Cognitive Ease 6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes 7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions 8. How Judgments Happen 9. Answering an Easier Question Part II. Heuristics and Biases 10. The Law of Small Numbers 11. Anchors 12. The Science of Availability 13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk 14. Tom W’s Specialty 15. Linda: Less is More 16. Causes Trump Statistics 17. Regression to the Mean 18. Taming Intuitive Predictions Part III. Overconfidence 19. The Illusion of Understanding 20. The Illusion of Validity 21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas 22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 23. The Outside View 24. The Engine of Capitalism Part IV. Choices 25. Bernoulli’s Errors 26. Prospect Theory 27. The Endowment Effect 28. Bad Events 29. The Fourfold Pattern 30. Rare Events 31. Risk Policies 32. Keeping Score 33. Reversals 34. Frames and Reality Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 36. Life as a Story 37. Experienced Well-Being 38. Thinking About Life Conclusions Appendix Uncertainty A: Judgment Under Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames Acknowledgments Notes Index Introduction Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and gossip is exchanged. I...
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...FREAKONOMICS A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything Revised and Expanded Edition Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner CONTENTS AN EXPLANATORY NOTE In which the origins of this book are clarified. vii PREFACE TO THE REVISED AND EXPANDED EDITION xi 1 INTRODUCTION: The Hidden Side of Everything In which the book’s central idea is set forth: namely, if morality represents how people would like the world to work, then economics shows how it actually does work. Why the conventional wisdom is so often wrong . . . How “experts”— from criminologists to real-estate agents to political scientists—bend the facts . . . Why knowing what to measure, and how to measure it, is the key to understanding modern life . . . What is “freakonomics,” anyway? 1. What Do Schoolteachers and Sumo Wrestlers Have in Common? 15 In which we explore the beauty of incentives, as well as their dark side—cheating. Contents Who cheats? Just about everyone . . . How cheaters cheat, and how to catch them . . . Stories from an Israeli day-care center . . . The sudden disappearance of seven million American children . . . Cheating schoolteachers in Chicago . . . Why cheating to lose is worse than cheating to win . . . Could sumo wrestling, the national sport of Japan, be corrupt? . . . What the Bagel Man saw: mankind may be more honest than we think. 2. How Is the Ku Klux Klan Like a Group of Real-Estate Agents? 49 In which it is argued that nothing is more powerful than information,...
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