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Petroleum in Brazil

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PETROLEUM IN BRAZIL: Petrobras, Petro-Sal, Legislative Changes & the Role of Foreign Investment ANDREW D. FISHMAN George Washington University Washington, DC 20052 (860) 690 - 7553 AFishman11@Gmail.com

Introduction On November 8, 2007, the state-owned Petróleo Brasileiro S/A (Petrobras) announced that it had discovered a “monstrous” reserve of light oil in the Tupi field of the Santos basin, off the coast of southern Brazil. A day later it removed 41 adjacent exploration blocks from a scheduled government concession auction to reanalyze how to best exploit the new resources.1 Since opening its petroleum industry in 2007, Brazil has attracted hordes of foreign corporations and created hundreds of thousands of jobs. In 2009 President Lula proposed sweeping changes to the industry in the form of four bills that would greatly increase the government’s involvement and relegate foreign oil companies to the role of “subservient partners.” In that same year, Petrobras successfully executed a public stock offering worth almost $79 billion (bn). Yet despite the largest public offering in history and tens of billions of barrels in proven and expected reserves, analysts at Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank, among others, have downgraded Petrobras’ investment rated to “neutral” and “hold,” respectively. Despite incredible potential, uncertainty over the potential increase in government control, over-ambitious targets, infrastructural bottlenecks, technological capabilities, and corruption loom large for potential Petrobras investors and business partners worldwide. The huge pre-salt oil deposits will have considerable implications for Brazil’s international role, its domestic governance, regional balances of power, and the future of investment in the region. This paper will analyze the evolution and current state of the Brazilian petroleum industry, the integral role of

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