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Philips Curve

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Notes on the Phillips Curve:

Phillips Curve: looking at the economy by focusing on Inflation (a nominal variable) and the Unemployment Rate (a real variable).

A Phillips Curve can represent a theory, stating what that theory sees as a connection between inflation and unemployment. Or, a Phillips Curve can represent actual data, reality.

The Phillips Curve is usually representative graphically, with the vertical axis representing the rate of inflation and the horizontal axis representing the unemployment rate.

Vertical Phillips Curve

Under classical theory (pre-Keynes), there was a “dichotomy” between money and the real economy. So changes in the money supply should affect only inflation, not unemployment. Under this money neutrality, there should be no connection between the inflation rate and unemployment. This can be represented graphically with a vertical line:
[pic]

Keynesian Theory

Keynes suggested that since prices don’t fully adjust in the short run, changes in demand can affect inflation and unemployment. For example, if Aggregate Demand increased from more C, or I, or G, or NX, or money supply, then prices would rise and unemployment would fall. Conversely, a decrease in Aggregate Demand would bring about a recession with higher unemployment but lower inflation (maybe even deflation).
[pic]

Evidence

In the 1950’s and 1960’s, economists gathered evidence to see if Keynesian prediction about a trade-off between inflation and unemployment was correct. The simplest idea would be to plot month by month (or some other time period) that period’s inflation rate and unemployment rate.

Policy

This downward sloping Phillips Curve suggests useful policy tools. If government can increase Aggregate Demand by injecting more money or increasing C, I, G, or NX, then government can engineer a lower unemployment rate. The cost of lower unemployment is

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