Homework 3

14-10 Why is a computer necessary in conducting a realworld simulation? Answer

It is important because there are many different types of outcomes that comes in with simulation. Computers are used in daily life activities and it is necessary.

14-11 What is operational gaming? What is systems simulation?
Give examples of how each may be applied.
Answer
Operational gaming is the use of simulation in competitive situations such as military games and business or management.
System simulation ls that deal with the dynamics of large organizational or governmental systems.
Validation The process of comparing a model to the real system that it represents to make sure that it is accurate.

14-17 (a) Resimulate the number of stockouts incurred over a 20-week period (assuming Higgins maintains a constant supply of 8 heaters).
(b) Conduct this 20-week simulation two more times and compare your answers with those in part (a).
Did they change significantly? Why or why not?
(c) What is the new expected number of sales per week?

Answer A. The number of stockouts incurred over a 20 week period is HOT WATER NUMBER OF
HEATER SALES WEEKS THIS
PER WEEK NUMBER WAS SOLD
3 2
4 9
5 10
6 15
7 25
8 12
9 12
10 10

B, Two more times would give us the value of a multiplied by 2. c. 25

14-18 A. 15 days of barge uploadings and average number of barges delayed

B, They both are probabilistic simulations.

Chapter 5 HW
5-14 Using MAD, determine whether the forecast in
Problem 5-13 or the forecast in the section concerning
Wallace Garden Supply is more accurate.
Answer
The more Acurate was the forecast in the section concerning Wallace garden supply.
5-15 Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best?

Answer
With 3 year moving average to forecast sales the demand is estimated to be 30 pound of bags of fertilizer and that is the one I think is the best choice to solution.

5-16 Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer in
Problem 5-15, using any computer software.
5-17 In Problems 5-15 and 5-16, three different forecasts were developed for the demand for fertilizer. These three forecasts are a 3-year moving average, a weighted moving average, and a trend line. Which one would you use? Explain your answer.

Answer
3 year moving average because the demand in those times will rise high.

5-35 Management of Davis’s Department Store has used time-series extrapolation to forecast retail sales for the next four quarters. The sales estimates are
$100,000, $120,000, $140,000, and $160,000 for the respective quarters before adjusting for seasonality.
Seasonal indices for the four quarters have been found to be 1.30, 0.90, 0.70, and 1.10, respectively.
Compute a seasonalized or adjusted sales forecast. Answer
Adjusted sales forecast for davis department store would be $100000
5-36 In the past, Judy Holmes’s tire dealership sold an average of 1,000 radials each year. In the past two years, 200 and 250, respectively, were sold in fall,
350 and 300 in winter, 150 and 165 in spring, and
300 and 285 in summer. With a major expansion planned, Judy projects sales next year to increase to
1,200 radials. What will the demand be each season?

Answer
The demand for each season would be around 300 because 1200 / 4 seasons.