...before deciding on critical issues. Today, the social scientists who try to minimize uncertainty about future are the modern oracles using modern technological capabilities. Social science studies are ment to provide practice-oriented results which can be used for the benefits of humanity. Not only should social sciences explain the past or the present, but also anticipate the future thorough establishing laws of behavior and structural patterns. Especially in international relations studies, predicting the future is critically important for humanity in order to provide early warning of conflict and other disasters related to human race. In this respect, trying to find a proper answer to the question of ‘’Is the behaviour of the states predictable?’’ makes up a crucial issue. Moreover, making decision in governing of the state is similar to playing chess. In order to be succesful in the chess, one must consider a lot of variables, need to know the rules of the chess, the motive behind the opponent’s each move/potential moves, continiously observe his or her movements and utilize a strategy. As in chess, for being able to make accurate predictions in political events, many requirements are esential. For instance, prior knowledge (background), systematically collected data and experts who use these inputs for reaching a conclusion are some of them. Nevertheless, prediction is not a very easy procedure in International Relations because of several limitations. Prediction is at...
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...Describe how major life events can influence the development of the individual. There are many life changes which influence on peoples life individually. Each individual changes will experience differently. Changes like, starting school, leaving home or losing job may affect our health and well being. Some of the events have positive influence on us but some of them may be stressful and depressed for some people. Some people might be able to able to cope with these changes very ease. Sometimes is depending of person, on individual experience and manage with many problems. Life event results have an individual self concept. Some of life events might change an individual understanding of themselves and the behaviours may get changes. Starting school might be a positive experience for some children, but also might be negative and not nice. It all depends of child and their parents, and how they cope with the change. Starting school Starting school can be the first major of event. Sometimes people will remember the first day in school with some reasons. Children usually are nervous and very exciting that day. They want to now how the school look like, how is in school, how the children are, and who the teacher looks. For some children is might be the first day without family, mother and father. Children might be upset and they might cry because they miss them. In the first day children do not know what to expect from all this new things and people who they meet. They learn...
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...be painful but they are necessary because life does not stand still. A life event can change the direction of our lives, affecting our personal development. Some major changes in life can be predicted and even chosen, while others may be unpredicted. Predictable life events, such as starting school, going through puberty and retiring from work, often mark a transition from one stage of life to another, acting as milestones in our personal development. Unpredictable life events, such as sudden illness or injury, redundancy or the death of a friend or relative, occur unexpectedly and are often associated with loss, but may also lead to positive change in our lives. Predictable life events tend to happen at particular points of our lives and these events are expected. We can already consider some of the physical changes that occur or we undergo through the lifespan like if are already an adult puberty is an example and a child would expect as well to undergo this process where lots of physical changes will happen and there will be emotional changes like higher level of sense of self-esteem and peer pressure but some might or might not have problem with this but surely they will undergo through this. One of the predictable life events that a person can go through is starting school or nursery. Families and school often go to great lengths to prepare children for this transition. Going to school or nursery for the first time is a big event for most children. Through this event...
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...Influences of Predictable and Unpredictable Life Events: Life events can change the direction of life affecting personal development. Major changes in life can either be predicted or even chosen, whilst others may be unpredicted and unwanted. Predictable life events such as starting school, puberty and retirement often mark a transition from one life stage to another, acting as milestones in our personal development. However, unpredictable life events such as sudden illness, redundancy, or divorce occur unexpectedly and are more often associated with loss, but also may lead to positive changes in life. Sudden changes in life is related to the risk of an individual to feel out of control and therefore stressed. If an individual chooses to leave home, marry or retire, they are in control of these major life events. The idea of predictable and unpredictable life events involves generalisation. For some individuals, issues such as divorce or redundancy may be predictable, but other people may not have of expected to neither be divorced nor lose their job. Predictable: Starting School Starting school is a government requirement and therefore is a predictable life event; however it can have an influence on an individual’s development. Physical development is associated with starting school as individuals start to participate in the subject of physical education (PE), which gives children the opportunity to boost their physical development, and allows them to run around and be...
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...P3: Explain the influences of two predictable and unpredictable major life events on the development of an individual. Differences in effect of predictable and unpredictable events There are certain life events that can change the way an individual’s personal development. Some crucial events in a person’s life can be predicted and sometimes even chosen, while there are other events that are unpredicted. Predictable life events such as ageing, starting to school or going through puberty, retiring from work, leaving home etc. often marks a transition from one life stage to another and considered as a milestone in the individual’s personal development. There are life events that are unpredictable such as sudden illness, birth of a sibling, death of friend or family member redundancy, which normally has negative effects on the emotional development of an individual but could also lead to something positive. Predictable events: A major event in Serena’s life would be starting school would be a predictable event in her life because it would help to influence her physical development, through promoting healthy eating in the school’s dining hall and participating in P.E lessons or doing activities that are sports and fitness related so that she can maintain her healthy body stature. In addition to the school meals if she came from a low income family the school would help to provide healthy meals so that she can get the nutrition she needs. Starting school would also develop...
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...Predictable 1. Starting school or nursery Which Lifestage? Positive: This is a big life stage for young children as it enables them to have distance from their parents, and become slightly more independent. It enables them to socialise with other children and learn new things, it also gets them into a routine. Negative: It can be very daunting for the child and the parents, it can also be very traumatising especially if the child has attachment issues. P Physically they will learn to cope on their own, they will learn how to do simple things like take off their coat and put it back on again. They will also begin to learn about writing, and how to write or draw. I Intellectually the child will be challenging their brain, as they will be learning about new things all the time, such as using new materials they have never seen, or writing and drawing. E Emotionally they may feel overwhelmed. They may feel very distressed when they first start going to nursery because it is perhaps being away from somebody familiar for the longest period of time they have experienced. S Socially, they will be meeting new children their age and having to socialise with them on a regular basis. They will learn about different people. Parents will also have a chance to mix with other parents with children of similar ages. Predictable 2. Which Lifestage? Positive: Negative: ...
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...After the previous 3 sections, we now come to the 4th part, catch-30. Here are our group members. We hope we can give you all a clear illustration of the textbook by our narration and vivid pictures. The growing impatience and the new vitality spring from within as we approach 30. Men and women alike are complaining about the all sorts of restrictions, but what these restrictions boil down to are simply two aspects: the outgrowth of career, and personal choices of the twenties. This conflict always leads to great change, turmoil, and often, crisis. The choice of career and personal lives may have been perfectly suited to age of twenties, but now things are different. On the one hand, some inner aspect that was left out is striving to be taken into account; on the other hand, things we pursue during the age of twenties may seem ridiculous and are gradually transformed into more realistic ones. The common response to this sharp conflict between inner change and social reality is the tearing up of the life we spent most of our twenties putting together, and striking out on a secondary road toward a new version. Travelling around the world is no longer the dream for most people, the childless couple reconsiders children, and the dream of running for president is replaced by more realistic substitutes. Let’s see the example of a 29-year-old associate with a Wall Street law firm. The associate is also confronted with the restriction of professional career and...
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...P3 | Explain the influences of two predictable and two unpredictable majorlife events on the development of an individual | A predictable event is something which has a high likelihood of occurring and is expected. And an unpredictable event is something which is not expected. Unpredictable events tend to have more of an impact on an individual’s life, because they would not be expecting it and would not be prepared for it, for example the sudden death of a family member. Marriage is a predictable life event, majority of people get married in their life time or at least plan to. The point of marriage is that it brings two people together, who plan to be together for the rest of their lives. It brings about many changes to a person’s life, including emotional and social development. Angelina Jolie has been married three times. She is now currently married to Brad Pitt who she loves very much and so this would affect her emotionally as she now has a life partner, someone to care for her and to share her problems with this. The effect of this is that it will allow her to be more content and happy in life as she has someone who loves her so much. Also she has new family and friends to get to know and begin new relationships with such as friends and family of Brad Pitts, so this would affect her social development, allowing her to be more confident. Angelina’s intellectual development would be affected as she would begin to think more about their future together and whatever...
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...05A15, 15A18. Keywords and phrases: General theory of stochastic processes, Enlargements of filtrations, Random times, Submartingales, Stopping times, Honest times, Pseudo-stopping times. Received August 2005. Contents 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Basic notions of the general theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Stopping times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Progressive, Optional and Predictable σ-fields . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Classification of stopping times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 D´but theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e 3 Section theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Projection theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 The optional and predictable projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Increasing processes and projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Random measures on (R+ × Ω) and the dual projections . . . . . 5 The Doob-Meyer decomposition and multiplicative decompositions . . 6 Multiplicative decompositions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Some hidden martingales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 General random times, their associated σ-fields and Az´ma’s supere martingales . . . . ....
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...Introduction Background of the study It is a common issue to test whether the stock prices are efficient, in most of the researches. It is found that long term returns are more predictable than short term and thus mean reverting. Studies mainly focus on autocorrelation of returns in different time lengths. In finance theory it says when autocorrelation of stock prices is there, then prices are predictable. Therefore, it is evidence against the random walk hypothesis of stock prices. Objective of the study The objective of this research is to test the efficiency of stock prices in Sri Lanka studying autocorrelation of short and long term returns in the CSE. Significance of the study There was a previous research on the predictability of short term returns and mean reversion in long term return in Sri Lanka in two important ways. 1. Previous studies utilized only shorter time periods because lack of long time series, since Sri Lankan stock market commenced only in 1985 and some researchers only used limited data which is the shorter time series available. Whereas the present study uses all-time series of returns available as at the research date (18.5 years from 1985-2003). 2. All previous papers tested only the short term returns except one. But this study examines short term predictability as well as long term mean reversion. It is important to use a long time series when predicting the long term returns to obtain correct results. Therefore, this...
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...government may impose on it. Because the regulation and policy are out of control and cannot predictable in the future, these factors are the mainly threat to Blades. Blades should be aware of the political risk involved in operating in ThailandBlades should be aware of any regulatory and environmental constraints the Thailand government may impose on it. Because the regulation and policy are out of control and cannot predictable in the future, these factors are the mainly threat to Blades. Blades should be aware of the political risk involved in operating in ThailandBlades should be aware of any regulatory and environmental constraints the Thailand government may impose on it. Because the regulation and policy are out of control and cannot predictable in the future, these factors are the mainly threat to Blades. Blades should be aware of the political risk involved in operating in ThailandBlades should be aware of any regulatory and environmental constraints the Thailand government may impose on it. Because the regulation and policy are out of control and cannot predictable in the future, these factors are the mainly threat to Blades. Blades should be aware of the political risk involved in operating in ThailandBlades should be aware of any regulatory and environmental constraints the Thailand government may impose on it. Because the regulation and policy are out of control and cannot predictable in the future, these factors are the mainly threat to Blades. Blades should be aware of...
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...There are two main types of Socialisation. There is Primary socialisation e.g. Family. Primary socialisation is the first type of socialisation you will come across. With primary socialisation you know that there are often a lot more barriers to do with behaviour and language. There is also secondary socialisation e.g. Friends. Secondary socialisation is socialisation of which you gain outside of your family; you often act differently in secondary socialisation. In secondary socialisation you will often find that you feel ‘free’ and that you can have more fun and do things that you would often be unable to do. This is because you know from a very young age that there are a lot of barriers in your source of primary socialisation. A good example for this would be swearing; when you are in your primary social group this is often frowned upon, whereas when you are with your secondary social group it is often the norm. Three identified Socio-Economic Factors are: Education, Money/Income and Housing. In infancy education is very important for intellectual development. Education is important through all life stages. It is a known fact that if you have a better education, and attended a well known private school you are more likely to get a well paid job. This is because private schools are known to have smaller classes, so teachers are able to help students better. This could also mean that you have a better general knowledge as you can also learn from friends. It is also known that...
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...[pic] BTEC Level 3 Subsidiary/Diploma in HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE UNIT 4 DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LIFE STAGES Name : …………………….. Target Grade ………………. Current Grade ……………… January – April 2014 |Pass |Merit |Distinction |Attempted |Complete | |P1 – Produce a series of posters that|M1 : Write a report that discusses |D1 : As a conclusion to your report, |P1 | | |describe physical, intellectual, |the nature – nurture debate in |evaluate how nature and nurture may | | | |emotional and social development for |relation to the development of the |affect the physical, intellectual, |M1 | | |each of the life stages of an |individual |emotional and social development of 2| | | |individual | |stages of the development on an |D1 | | | | |individual | | | |P2 – Using examples from someone’s | | |P2 | | |life, explain the potential...
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...Id. at 893. Scope of employment is determined by foreseeability, or whether or not the tort committed is an unavoidable cost of the employer’s business. Id. at 893. To further clarify, foreseeability means an employee’s actions are predictable enough that it is fair to include the loss as part of the employer’s business. Id. at 893. Additionally, an employee’s action that is a minor deviation from an employer’s business is deemed foreseeable and remains within the scope of employment. Id. at 894. A minor deviation includes any personal activities that are deemed necessary to the comfort, convenience, health, and employee’s well being. Id. at 894. An employee is taken outside the scope of employment when his action’s are substantial departures and unforeseeable. Le Elder v. Rice, 26 Cal. Rptr. 2d 749, 750 (Ct. App. 1994). If an employee substantially deviates from his duties for purely personal reasons, then it is unjust to hold the employer liable. Id. Therefore, the court...
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...“Computers are magnificent tools for the realization of our dreams, but no machine can replace the human spark of spirit, compassion, love, and understanding.” Louis V. Gerstner, Jr. Materialist Thomas Hobbes once stated that “human beings are in effect just complicated machines”, I disagree with that because unlike machines, humans are having a lot of factors to them that make them unpredictable whereas even the most complicated ones have predictable behaviors,. While humans behave as per their consciousness, machines just perform as they are taught and the most obvious reason is human emotion. This essay will be further expanding on ideas which will be contradicting Thomas Hobbes theory of human machines. “Your intellect may be confused, but your emotions will never lie to you.” Roger Ebert The main thing that makes humans, unlike machines is our emotions, unlike machines emotions are the very core of our being even though our brain makes chemicals that allow us to feel emotions, but that does not define what emotions are. Emotions are what make us weak and also make us strong. A mother’s love for their child can make her cry when they have to live apart for a prolonged period. Again, even the weakest of the weak might rise to the occasion and give a valiant fight with the strongest mass to save his beloved from any form of harm. A machine no matter how complicated cannot use emotions the way a human does, if it to be to keep a memory or even shape their being therefore...
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