...My Prediction for Season 2 flash story line includes Futures end influences and a Wally West Flash! Here is how I have come to that conclusion and then some. In Tuesday night's episode of The Flash during the body snatcher scene Eobard says to Harrison; "In the year twenty twenty (five years from now) you and your wife Tes Morgan successfully launch a particle accelerator that changes the course of history". Eobard accelerated that timeline, to the year 2015 (technically 2014, and they should have had the line read 2019). Five years from now, the DC Comic Universe plot line for Futures End is as follows: "Reeling from a war with Another Earth, leaving the world unprepared for an approaching evil that threatens to destroy the future can a time traveling Batman (beyond)." Now simply begin to replace batman with "Can a time-traveling Barry Allen, help a massive cast of the DCU’s finest avert the impending apocalypse caused by the changes to the timeline Eobard Thawn the Reverse Flash set in motion after the eventual survival of Barry's mother? That means season two should be getting heavy doses of influence from the Futures End storyline. For the new as-yet-unnamed show, they are casting characters like HawkGirl, so this gives some credibility to a "massive cast" I digress, now since Harrison wells and Tess Morgan will be the cause of the S.T.A.R. labs explosion in 2020, we should see some new superheroes from older cast members, like Cisco becoming Vibe and Mrs. Katlin snow becoming...
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...In Shakespeare’s play, Macbeth, the three weird sisters, otherwise known as the witches, merely report what is destined to be for Macbeth. I believe that Macbeth would not have taken part in the same actions, if the witches hadn’t given him any predictions. He would not have had any reason to commit murder if he hadn’t known that he may become king. Throughout the play, there several instances where Macbeth approaches the witches to receive future predictions for his life. Some of the predictions may still have come true without Macbeth doing the things he did, but most of them would have been false without the murders. In Act I, Scene III, Banquo and Macbeth meet the three witches for the first time. In this scene, the witches give predictions...
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...Future Wages There are a lot opinions but more importantly some well known pros and cons of high schools and colleges trying to factor job and wage predictions about the future wages into student career counseling is reality vs. predictions. In High School students have no clue on what was considered real jobs. The predictions may lead students to choose a career based on ideas of what might be and not facts. The prediction does not mean that it will happen in real life situations. Making predictions will only give high school and college’s students a small idea of what to expect and not show students what careers to suit their interests. The problems that high schools and colleges might face in trying to help students evaluate the future earnings’ prospects of various jobs is that students may choose a career based on a predicted salary. The career they choose may change and might not pay as well as it did. Now that former student either has to deal with a career they may or may not be interested in or go back to school to change career fields. So reality and the predictions may be completely opposite of each other. The average problem with trying to help students predict future earnings is that the predictions are nonfactual. There is no evidence or guarantee that the earnings will remain the same in the future. Almost everyone changes their mind of what would be considered a “dream job”. From high school to college and sometimes after obtaining that “dream job” our career...
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...There are many different predictions of the future by various people which can influence society to have a better understanding of the world and help to create a better future. These predictions are interpreted differently by society, leading to predictions that are more popular than others. Social critic Neil Postman expresses his opinions on both George Orwell and Aldous Huxley’s visions of the future, believing that Huxley’s less popular vision in Brave New World is more realistic and relevant to current society than Orwell’s vision in 1984. Postman’s assertion was correct, and Brave New World is more accurate than 1984 in its predictions of the future, as it provides a better understanding of contemporary society. Huxley’s novel, Brave New World, provides a better prediction of the future because of its assumptions on implosion of society. Rather than portraying the idea of an outside force such as the government taking over America and destroying society, Huxley proclaims that, “no Big Brother is required to deprive the people of their autonomy, maturity, and history.” An external force is not required to destroy...
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...years historical data into ten two year data and built ARIMA and GARCH models for each sub-period. We found that the models are considerably consistent before 2007-2008 sub-period, and there exists some minor seasonality in several subperiods, but no particular pattern can be identified for the whole period. We then tried to predict future return, volatility and VaR using the model we built for the last sub-period based on rolling forecast procedure. Though the fitted values of 10th sub-period model are very acceptable, the predicted values are reasonable yet far from satisfactory. Only some future volatility can be predicted using one-step ahead rolling forecast, and return prediction is not much better than just using historical mean, which is almost 0, to predict. These results suggest that external variables are needed for more accurate predictions, time series models alone are not sufficient. Data S&P500 index daily closing price from 1993 to 2012 are obtained from yahoo finance website. It is one of the best measures of current state of U.S. domestic economy, therefore by studying its fluctuations, consistency, seasonality and make predictions, one can determine if it is a good time to invest in U.S. stock market. Methodology We first examined the time series plots, ACF plots and PACF plots of whole period and each sub-period. Then ARIMA models for log-returns mean part and GARCH models for the conditional volatility of the log-returns are fitted. After selecting our...
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...App. Math. and Comp. Intel., Vol. 2 (1) (2013) 137–148 http://amci.unimap.edu.my © 2013 Institute of Engineering Mathematics, UniMAP Modeling of prediction system: An application of the nearest neighbor approach to chaotic data N. Z. A. Hamida,b,*and M. S. M. Nooranib a Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris 35900, Tanjung Malim, Perak, Malaysia b School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia Received: 20 February 2012; Revised: 12 February 2013, Accepted: 25 February 2013 Abstract: This paper is about modeling of chaotic systems via nearest neighbor approach. This approach holds the principle that future data can be predicted using past data information. Here, all the past data known as neighbors. There are various prediction models that have been developed through this approach. In this paper, the zeroth-order approximation method (ZOAM) and improved ZOAM, namely the k-nearest neighbor approximation (KNNAM) and weighted distance approximation method (WDAM) were used. In ZOAM, only one nearest neighbor is used to predict future data while KNNAM uses more than one nearest neighbor and WDAM add the distance element for prediction process. These models were used to predict one of the chaotic data, Logistic map. 3008 Logistic map data has been produced, in which the first 3000 data were used to train the model while...
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...Nadia Daniella BUAD 304 – 14734 Discussion Assignment #1 September 19, 2012 1. Despite the difficulty in making predictions, many people make assertions about what will happen in the future. I think that this is because of the many biases and errors that are involved in decision-making. Overconfidence bias means that most people are far too optimistic in analyzing situations or making decisions. Although no one has the ability to accurately predict the future, people think they know more than they actually do, making them more confident than they should be when they try to do so. I also think that people make assertions because we tend to selectively gather information that confirms our past and use that to create an assumption for the future. However, the information that we gather by this process tends to be biased to our own perception. I believe that people are also very confident in making future predictions because we think that we have some control over our world, destiny, and therefore the course of the future. We try to make sense of random events and see things in patterns and seek out meanings when in reality, too many variables are random and not in our control. We also have the tendency to believe that things are obvious after the fact. This hindsight bias creates the illusion that we know more about the past and lets us think that we are better predictors than we are. 2. When Vice President Joe Biden falsely predicted that more people would be getting...
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...that allows for greater success in the predictions. Also, the predictions may only be short-term future predictions. The article, ‘Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy’ proved that ratios used as part of a model were extremely accurate in predicting bankruptcy up to two years prior to the actual event. The ‘discriminant-ratio model’ was developed to bridge the gap between traditional ratio analysis and other statistical techniques which had become popular, as at this time there seemed to be a move toward the elimination of traditional ratio analysis in assessing future firm performance. The model sampled thirty-six firms and placed them in one of two groups: bankrupt and non-bankrupt. From this point, balance sheet and income statement data was collected and five ratios calculated and placed in the model calculation. The model was found to be 94% accurate in predicting bankruptcy two years prior to the actual event. This article was important, as it showed that individual ratio measurements take on great significance when integrated with analytical discriminant analysis, but only in the short-term. The article ‘Are Financial Measures Leading Indicators of Firm Performance’ also indicated that no one ratio is superior in predicting future performance, but rather, if certain ratios are used in conjunction with market information, there may be increased accuracy in predicting short-term future performance. Financial ratios, as well...
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...field of research. Head to Head Comparisons Predictive Analytics Statistics Definition Predictive analytics is branch of the data analytics to predict the future events. Statistics in simpler terms is collection of numerical facts. It is the science of collecting, classifying and representing the numerical data. Why it matters? Predictive analytics can identify the risks and opportunities...
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...instruments of darkness tell us truths, win us with honest trifles - to betrays in deepest consequence' Banquo is being a friend and trying to warn Macbeth that the witches were trying to make Macbeth do something bad. But this does not help Macbeth to hold back to kill Duncan. Banquo always knew Macbeth is going to do something stupid, his desires are going to kill his respect and honour for Duncan. Finally, today after the death of Duncan and fleeing of his two sons, Macbeth is announced king. Banquo feels bad about this and quickly rushes to his castle and into his room. BANQUO is standing alone in the room near a window. He is looking quietly outside. He appears worried. He begins to pace the room. BANQUO: The three witch’s prediction has come true. Macbeth has become Thane of Cawdor and the king. Macbeth is now the king of Scotland. I know Macbeth turned his thoughts to murder though the sisters have said nothing about it. I know that...
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...Predicting the future has always been one of the basic interests of social sciences. In the past, leaders who wanted to gain or sustain power were used to consult oracles before deciding on critical issues. Today, the social scientists who try to minimize uncertainty about future are the modern oracles using modern technological capabilities. Social science studies are ment to provide practice-oriented results which can be used for the benefits of humanity. Not only should social sciences explain the past or the present, but also anticipate the future thorough establishing laws of behavior and structural patterns. Especially in international relations studies, predicting the future is critically important for humanity in order to provide early warning of conflict and other disasters related to human race. In this respect, trying to find a proper answer to the question of ‘’Is the behaviour of the states predictable?’’ makes up a crucial issue. Moreover, making decision in governing of the state is similar to playing chess. In order to be succesful in the chess, one must consider a lot of variables, need to know the rules of the chess, the motive behind the opponent’s each move/potential moves, continiously observe his or her movements and utilize a strategy. As in chess, for being able to make accurate predictions in political events, many requirements are esential. For instance, prior knowledge (background), systematically collected data and experts who use these inputs...
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...9-607-088 REV: AUGUST 20, 2007 PETER A. COLES KARIM R. LAKHANI ANDREW P. MCAFEE Prediction Markets at Google In late March of 2007, Bo Cowgill, Ilya Kirnos, Doug Banks, Patri Friedman, and Piaw Na sat down to lunch at Google’s headquarters in Mountain View, California, and reviewed the most recent results from the company’s internal prediction markets. The five Googlers (as Google employees referred to themselves) had launched the company’s prediction markets, built the information systems that supported them, and overseen them during the previous seven quarters, all while working at their “normal” jobs. The markets had grown in popularity and demonstrated their accuracy during that time, and the team was proud of its accomplishments. Prediction markets were very much like stock markets. They contained securities, each of which had a price. People used the market to trade with one another by buying and selling these securities. Because traders had differing beliefs about what the securities were worth, and because events occurred over time that altered these beliefs, the prices of securities varied over time. In a stock market like the New York Stock Exchange the securities being traded were shares in companies, the prices of which reflected beliefs about the value of the companies. In a prediction market, in contrast, the securities being traded were related to future events such as an American presidential election. In this case, the market could be designed so that...
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...Meghan Corvington February 29. 2016 EC492 Forecasting Prof. Orlowski PROBLEM SET #1 (Due date: February 29, 2016) Use the quarterly data base from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED provided to you in the EViews program to answer the following questions: 1. Choose the real US export of goods and services (REXPGS), real import of goods and services (RIMPGS) and disposable personal income (DPI) variables. View their descriptive statistics. Analyze skewness, kurtosis and volatility (measured by the coefficient of variation) of each of them. Discuss possible economic factors underlying the data asymmetry, kurtosis and relative volatility. In this example, all three variables are left skewed, while kurtosis is between 1.99 and 2.29 for each of the three variables. I measured volatility based on the standard deviation of the three variables. DPI is extremely volatile, while RIMPGS and REXPGS are not as volatile as DPI. It seems as if there is a strong correlation between the amounts of standard deviations compared to the kurtosis. There is a lack of asymmetry between the three variables, as there is no equivalence in various measurements. | |REXPGS |RIMPGS |DPI | | Mean | 747.1115 | 962.0551 | 4682.076 | | Median | 447.5000 | 636.0000 | 3400.400...
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...Assignment ZipCar Evaluate this potential venture and the progress that Chase has made. For the purpose of evaluating the Zipcar business venture I made use of the format of the Salhman article named “How to write a great business plan.” Hereby, a business framework should systematically assess four independent factors critically to every venture namely; The People, The Opportunity, The Context and an overview of possible risk and the reward for coping with these risks effectively. After shortly explaining the factors I will apply this framework to the Zipcar Case and analyze the quality of its business model. This makes it possible to evaluate the potential of the venture; and its progress from scratch to start, from an investor’s perspective. The people The success of a product or service is dependent on the people developing them. “The people” refers to both the entrepreneurs developing the business as all other actors who have been actively involved in providing key resources or important services. The analysis The easiest way to analyze the people behind the business is by usage of the ‘Fourteen personal questions every business plan should answer’. Hereby, I looked at the completeness in providing the right information and the quality of the information that is provided in the Zipcar case. At first, both developers of the concept; Danielson & Chase were highly experienced and qualified within their field of interest. Danielson; having an educational background...
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...and misfortune upon others. However, the three witches in the play Macbeth demonstrate a different approach. The Three Witches are depicted as old, ugly women who have beards and scaly fingers. Additionally, they have a critical role in telling the main character, Macbeth, the prophecies and predictions. As a result, the Three Witches play a significant importance to the play Macbeth because they are the ones who instill negative thoughts and ideas into Macbeth’s head with their predictions and emphasize the main theme of evil and darkness. The evil witches are important to the play because they are the ones who instill negative thoughts and ideas into Macbeth’s head with their predictions. First of all, the witches’ predictions give him the idea of killing King Duncan. When the witches first encounter Macbeth, they say, “All hail, Macbeth! Hail to thee, thane of Glamis!/ All hail, Macbeth! Hail to thee, thane of Cawdor!/ All hail, Macbeth! That shalt be king hereafter” (Shakespeare 1:3 50-53). Macbeth is confused when he hears about the prediction and he is astonished when the prediction regarding Cawdor becomes true. After that, he immediately begins to think about his last prediction and imagines about committing murder. He says, “Two truths are told,/ As happy prologues to the swelling act/ Of the imperial theme./[..] My thought, whose murder yet is but fantastical,/ Shakes so my single state of man that function/ Is smothered in surmise, and nothing is/ But what is not”...
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