...Possibilities of preventing dementia One in 10 people age 65 and older (10 percent) has Alzheimer's dementia (Alzheimer’s Association, 2016 ). Over the course of many years, there has been an increase in people that have been diagnosed with dementia, a chronic or persistent disorder of the mental process caused by brain disease or injury. Studies have shown that there has been a decrease in memory loss when they’re older by living a certain lifestyle while they are young. Other studies have shown that dementia develops naturally and you do not know when to expect it. Dementia is to describe all the disease that are related to memory loss. Extensive analysis from cases of dementia and controls suggests that Alzheimer's disease is a primary irreversible nerve-cell disorder and not the result of accelerated ageing (Elsevier Ltd, 1979 ). Dementia is caused by damage to brain cells. People with dementia may have problems with short-term memory, keeping track of a purse or wallet, paying bills, planning and preparing meals, remembering appointments or traveling out of the neighborhood (Alzheimer's Association 2018 ). Dementia is the act of forgetting things. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved two types of medications — cholinesterase inhibitors (Aricept, Exelon, Razadyne) and memantine (Namenda) — to treat the cognitive symptoms (memory loss, confusion, and problems with thinking and reasoning) of Alzheimer's disease (Alzheimer's Association, 2018 ). The FDA has...
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...Abstract Model Paper Analyze the different types of abstract models and examples of the problems that are applicable to each type of model. Write the paper in 2–3 pages including the following details: * A brief description of each type of model: * Deterministic * Probability * Simulation * Discipline specific * A brief description of problem for which each model is applicable. * Why each example is applicable to the model for which it was chosen? Present the paper in Microsoft Office Word document format. Name the file A deterministic model is the one that contains no random elements. The output of the model determined the parameter values and the initial conditions. Deterministic models samples include accounting, timetables, pricing, a linear programming model and economic quantity models (Nic, 2013). For example, decision-making problems can be deterministic or probabilistic decision models. As deterministic models, decisions to bring good final outcomes. A deterministic model is “you get what you expect” risk-free model, which determines the outcome. It also depends on the influence of the uncontrollable the factors that determine the outcome of a decision and the information the decision-maker input as a predicting factor (Arsham, 1996). According to Schrodt (2004), deterministic models was widely used in the early 18th century to study physical processes to develop differential equations by many mathematicians. These...
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...Unit 3: Probability and Counting Rules - Assignment Total points for Assignment: 35 points. Assignments must be submitted as a Microsoft Word document and uploaded to the Dropbox for Unit 3. All Assignments are due by Tuesday at 11:59 PM ET of the assigned Unit. NOTE: Assignment problems should not be posted to the Discussion threads. Questions on the Assignment problems should be addressed to the instructor by sending an email or by attending office hours. You must show your work on all problems. If a problem is worth 2 points and you only show the answer, then you will receive only 1 point credit. If you use a calculator or online website, give the source and tell me exactly what you provided as input. For example, if you used Excel to compute 16 * 16, tell me “I typed =16*16 into Excel and got 256. You may type your answer right into this document. Part I. Basic Computations 1. A restauraunt offers the following limited lunch menu: |Main Course |Vegetables |Beverages |Desserts | |Ham |Potatoes |Coffee |Cake | |Chicken |Peas |Tea |Pie | |Fish |Salad |Milk ...
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...------------------------------------------------- Top of Form Grade for Felecia McClain: Week 3 Quiz | Numeric grade: | 75/100 | Letter grade: | | Comments: Felecia - It appears you have a fair understanding of the material. Please let me know if you have questions on any areas where you lost points. Wilma | <Close Window | Autograde Summary | Date Taken: | 5/21/2011 10:58:45 PM | Time Spent: | 2:00:00 (2:00 allowed) | Points Received: | 75 / 100 (75%) | These are the automatically computed results of your exam. Grades for essay questions, and comments from your instructor, are in the "Details" section below. | Question Type: | # Questions: | # Correct: | Multiple choice | 6 | 5 | Essay | 3 | N/A | | Grade Details | | | | 1. | Question: | (TCO A) In the _____ organization structure, the project manager is responsible for the project results, while the functional managers are responsible for providing the resources needed to achieve the results. | | Your Answer: | | | mixed-mode | | | | | matrix | ( page 409 ) | CORRECT | | | project | | | | | functional | | | | | | Points Received: | 5 of 5 | 2. | Question: | (TCO H) What are the four phases of the project life cycle? | | Your Answer: | | | Identify a need, plan, develop a proposed solution, and perform the project | | | | | Plan, identify a need, develop a proposed...
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...Essay topic: Should I play lottery and why, why not! A lottery is a process whose outcome is dependent on chance such that the lottery player has no certainty on the outcome. It is probabilistic in nature and is dependent on the number of players, the more the players, the risker the lottery hence the lower the chances of winning. Consider a lottery where in one case the participants are One hundred and in the other are a thousand; the probabilities would be a hundredth and a thousandth respectively meaning the chances of winning the earlier case is higher than the later. Playing a lottery would be a good investment idea whose favorable success implies a sudden glory to wealth acquisition based on the amount of lottery bid. To play a lottery one has to be a risk taker since in itself lottery involves a higher risk and as an investor, the higher the risk the higher the returns. In essence therefore the lottery player has to factor in a lot of risk since the whole idea is a gamble. Before playing lottery, one has to ask several questions for instance; whether it is a good idea to get in to the game or not? With the money factor in mind the other question would be; would I get more or less money in the lottery? Such questions inform the action one would take. Economics reasoning rule dictates that a player would have to continue playing until you get all the money. This is a notion in itself is not sufficient since by probability and the theory of chance one will never get...
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...PERCENTAGES: THE MOST USEFUL STATISTICS EVER INVENTED Thomas R. Knapp © 2010 "Eighty percent of success is showing up." - Woody Allen “Baseball is ninety percent mental and the other half is physical.” - Yogi Berra "Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration." - Thomas Edison Preface You know what a percentage is. 2 out of 4 is 50%. 3 is 25% of 12. Etc. But do you know enough about percentages? Is a percentage the same thing as a fraction or a proportion? Should we take the difference between two percentages or their ratio? If their ratio, which percentage goes in the numerator and which goes in the denominator? Does it matter? What do we mean by something being statistically significant at the 5% level? What is a 95% confidence interval? Those questions, and much more, are what this book is all about. In his fine article regarding nominal and ordinal bivariate statistics, Buchanan (1974) provided several criteria for a good statistic, and concluded: “The percentage is the most useful statistic ever invented…” (p. 629). I agree, and thus my choice for the title of this book. In the ten chapters that follow, I hope to convince you of the defensibility of that claim. The first chapter is on basic concepts (what a percentage is, how it differs from a fraction and a proportion, what sorts of percentage calculations are useful in statistics...
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...CURRICULUM VITAE John Robinson Present Position: Professor, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney. Degrees: University of Queensland, B.Sc. (1961) University of Queensland, B.Sc. (Hons II, 1, Mathematics)(1963). University of Sydney, Ph.D. (Mathematical Statistics)(1969). Thesis title: ”Mixtures of Distributions”. Honours: 1984: Elected Member of the International Statistical Institute. 1990: Elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. 2008: Awarded the Pitman Medal of the Statistical Society of Australia. Positions held: Biometrician, Queensland Department of Primary Industry, 1961-1964. Lecturer, Biometry Section, Department of Agriculture, University of Sydney, 1964-1966. Lecturer, Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Sydney, 19661971. Senior Lecturer, Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Sydney, 1972-1982. Associate Professor, Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Sydney, 1983-1991. Professor, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, 1991Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut, 1969-1970. Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, University of Waterloo, Canada, 1975-1976. Visiting Lecturer, Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, 1979-1980. Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, University of Rochester, NY, 1986, January-July. Administration: Head of Department of Mathematical Statistics...
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...Journal of Information Technology Education Volume 2, 2003 An Overview of Current Research on Automated Essay Grading Salvatore Valenti, Francesca Neri and Alessandro Cucchiarelli DIIGA - Universita’ Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy valenti@inform.unian.it neri@inform.unian.it alex@inform.unian.it Executive Summary Essays are considered by many researchers as the most useful tool to assess learning outcomes, implying the ability to recall, organize and integrate ideas, the ability to express oneself in writing and the ability to supply merely than identify interpretation and application of data. It is in the measurement of such outcomes, corresponding to the evaluation and synthesis levels of the Bloom’s (1956) taxonomy that the essay questions serve their most useful purpose. One of the difficulties of grading essays is represented by the perceived subjectivity of the grading process. Many researchers claim that the subjective nature of essay assessment leads to variation in grades awarded by different human assessors, which is perceived by students as a great source of unfairness. This issue may be faced through the adoption of automated assessment tools for essays. A system for automated assessment would at least be consistent in the way it scores essays, and enormous cost and time savings could be achieved if the system can be shown to grade essays within the range of those awarded by human assessors. This paper presents an overview of current approaches to...
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...Case Study 11: Should a Computer Grade Your Essays? The case study discusses the April 2013 launch of Harvard/MIT’s joint venture MOOC (massively open online course) essay scoring program, utilizing AI (artificial intelligence) technology to grade educational essays and short answers, with immediate feedback and ability to revise, resubmit, and improve grades. In 2012, a group of colleagues, Les Perleman, Mark Shermis, and Ben Hamner, introduced over 16,000, K7-12 standardized school tests to the AES (automated essay scoring software) to compare results of hand-scored essays; the results appeared to produce a more accurate grade, however, no official statistical studies were performed to accurately maintain the claim. Essay Raters (e-Rater), developed by the Educational Testing Service (ETS), allowed Perelman to access, and analyze the technology. ETS uses vocabulary and content to score criteria, such as essay length, conjunctive adverb usage, and large word usage, in combination with paper and word length, words per sentence, and word complexity. The downside is the programs’ inability to differentiate factual from nonfactual information, intent, or meaning. Some educators banned to form the group, Professionals Against Machine Scoring of Student Essays in High-Stakes Assessment; they are concerned educators will reduce writing standards to conform to software constraints. Laudon & Laudon further discuss the probability of lost jobs due to computers taking the place...
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...Criterion SM Online Essay Evaluation: An Application for Automated Evaluation of Student Essays Jill Burstein Educational Testing Service Rosedale Road, 18E Princeton, NJ 08541 jburstein@ets.org Martin Chodorow Department of Psychology Hunter College 695 Park Avenue New York, NY 10021 martin.chodorow@hunter.cuny.edu Claudia Leacock Educational Testing Service Rosedale Road, 18E Princeton, NJ 08541 cleacock@ets.org Abstract This paper describes a deployed educational technology application: the CriterionSM Online Essay Evaluation Service, a web-based system that provides automated scoring and evaluation of student essays. Criterion has two complementary applications: E-rater®, an automated essay scoring system and Critique Writing Analysis Tools, a suite of programs that detect errors in grammar, usage, and mechanics, that identify discourse elements in the essay, and that recognize elements of undesirable style. These evaluation capabilities provide students with feedback that is specific to their writing in order to help them improve their writing skills. Both applications employ natural language processing and machine learning techniques. All of these capabilities outperform baseline algorithms, and some of the tools agree with human judges as often as two judges agree with each other. 2. Application Description Criterion contains two complementary applications that are based on natural language processing (NLP) methods. The scoring application, e-rater®, extracts...
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...through the decisions made in the industry every day by the sponsor or pharmaceutical company sponsoring the investigations product. While the sponsor analysis their data, from a team management point of view, the author must determine the number of sites required to achieve the desired results. It is here were statistics and probability comes into place. In order to determine and try to achieve the desired results within the population allowed, the author must determine the number of sites required in order to achieve the desired results. In Phase II, since the sample size is small, the number of sites is determined based on the number of sites needed. For example, past history shows that in order to enroll 95 subjects, 26 sites must be selected. This is based on achieving the desired results 44% of the time. A decision must be made to determine whether or not the author should contract the same number of sites or determine if a different number of sites will be needed. If the desired results are achieved 44% of the time based on past experiences, then in order to achieve a greater success rate, the author will use probability to...
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...Airlines such as WestJet and JetBlue promote low-cost and high-efficiency carriers by giving extremely competitive fares and outstanding customer service. Reservation system for these airlines are so important that when these companies need to make sweeping IT upgrades, their relationships with customers and their brands can be tarnished if things go awry. This can be seen when in 2009, both airlines upgraded their airline reservation systems, SabreSonic CSS was launch, customers struggled to place reservations, and the WestJet Web Site crashed repeatedly. WestJet’s call centers were also overwhelmed, and customers experienced slowdowns at airports. This delay provoked a deluge of customer dissatisfaction. In addition to the increase in customer complaint calls, customers also took to the Internet to express their displeasure. Angry flyers expressed outrage on Facebook and flooded WestJet’s site, causing the repeated crashes. These problems impact both of the airlines operational activities and decision making to change their initial carrier which had started out as a system designed for smaller start-up airlines to a better carrier. Other than that, both airlines needed more processing power to deal with a far greater volume of customers. They also needed features like the ability to link prices and seat inventories to other airlines with whom they cooperated. Both JetBlue and WestJet contracted with Sabre Holdings to upgrade their airline reservation systems. The differences...
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...than three consecutive words from another writer. I also certify that this paper was prepared by me specifically for this course. Student’s Signature: Khanya Clark-Robinson Khanya Clark-Robinson Final Paper Kahneman1, Daniel and Tversky, Amos. (1979). “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” 1. Big Question The big question of this article is how people make decisions under uncertainty of risks and rewards. Decisions under risks assume that a decision can be quantified as a positive or negative outcome with quantifiable probability. This theory was developed for monetary decisions and the process observations can be included in other fields; fields such as social sciences and policy making. 2. Background Information The standard for analyzing decisions was the theory that quantified the outcome and probability. A reasonable individual will choose the option with the best utility. The probability results should all add up to 100%. The utility theory has a defined logical foundation and it represents a behavior with uncertainty and a variety of decisions. At this time it is the approved method that evaluated decisions in science. Although it is utilized in science it lacks the human psychology that enables real life decisions. 3. Limitations of previous work. The expected utility theory fails in certain types of situations. An example would be insurance companies that utilize the expected utility theory. The profits are generated...
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...When we look at the terms of risk reduction and hazard control we get the terms of eliminating and reducing the issues. Where control of hazards seek to maintain instead of removing the process. The term that risk reduction is applied to is a complete understanding of the intent of the criterion to ty risk- reducing the probability of the events occurring. In the terms of the second and third definitions of risk because they include both the probability of the event and the severity of the harmful consequences. Risk reduction is a term that capture the fundamental concept that harmful events consist of the three phases. Jensen, R. C. (2012). Risk-Reduction Methods: For Occupational Safety and Health (1st e A physical model is one that thing would be (like if you were creating a model of say a building, park, airplane or other large structure or area), sometimes it's actual size if it is small enough. You build or have built that you can touch. Sometimes it is a miniature version of what the real. What I mean by physical models is those that are meant to represent the physical world, as opposed to – for example – biomechanical, or computers models. Jensen, R. C. (2012). Risk-Reduction Methods: For Occupational Safety and Health (1st ed.). Whenever you are planning or one have to deal with risk and hazards we should looking in to the process from the beginning to the end. Where do we want to be at this point in the project as...
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...The enforceability of bar bets is generally a common law area in that the jurisprudence here is more or less advanced by the courts. Bar bets are technically governed by contract law and their enforceability is determined by the capacity of the patrons to the bets. This means whether or not they are intoxicated, after all they are in a bar. In a bar bet such as the one in this scenario is enforceable only where both parties are sober, intoxication leads to the lack of capacity. A bar bet is essentially a contract that is dependent on a particular outcome. Performance of the contact commences after a particular outcome, the outcome being the football match. In this particular contact, there are the essential requirements...
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