..."A Random Walk Down Wall Street" There is a sense of complexity today that has led many to believe the individual investor has little chance of competing with professional brokers and investment firms. However, Malkiel states this is a major misconception as he explains in his book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street". What does a random walk mean? The random walk means in terms of the stock market that, "short term changes in stock prices cannot be predicted". So how does a rational investor determine which stocks to purchase to maximize returns? Chapter 1 begins by defining and determining the difference in investing and speculating. Investing defined by Malkiel is the method of "purchasing assets to gain profit in the form of reasonably predictable income or appreciation over the long term". Speculating in a sense is predicting, but without sufficient data to support any kind of conclusion. What is investing? Investing in its simplest form is the expectation to receive greater value in the future than you have today by saving income rather than spending. For example a savings account will earn a particular interest rate as will a corporate bond. Investment returns therefore depend on the allocation of funds and future events. Traditionally there have been two approaches used by the investment community to determine asset valuation: "the firm-foundation theory" and the "castle in the air theory". The firm foundation theory argues that each investment instrument has something called...
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...Chaotic Growth with the Logistic Model of P.-F. Verhulst Hugo Pastijn Department of Mathematics, Royal Military Academy B-1000 Brussels, Belgium Hugo.Pastijn@rma.ac.be Summary. Pierre-Fran¸ois Verhulst was born 200 years ago. After a short biograc phy of P.-F. Verhulst in which the link with the Royal Military Academy in Brussels is emphasized, the early history of the so-called “Logistic Model” is described. The relationship with older growth models is discussed, and the motivation of Verhulst to introduce different kinds of limited growth models is presented. The (re-)discovery of the chaotic behaviour of the discrete version of this logistic model in the late previous century is reminded. We conclude by referring to some generalizations of the logistic model, which were used to describe growth and diffusion processes in the context of technological innovation, and for which the author studied the chaotic behaviour by means of a series of computer experiments, performed in the eighties of last century by means of the then emerging “micro-computer” technology. 1 P.-F. Verhulst and the Royal Military Academy in Brussels In the year 1844, at the age of 40, when Pierre-Fran¸ois Verhulst on November c 30 presented his contribution to the “M´moires de l’Acad´mie” of the young e e Belgian nation, a paper which was published the next year in “tome XVIII” with the title: “Recherches math´matiques sur la loi d’accroissement de la e population” (mathematical investigations of the law of...
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