...Options Theory Applied to Alternative Energy Industry Christina Clowdus Bus: 630 March 20, 2012 Dr. Shaw Introduction In life, you always have options. It is no different in capital investment. In today's unpredictable business world, managers recognize how risky the most valuable investment opportunities often are, and how useful a flexible strategy can be. That's why they want to know all their options. Yet many current financial assessment tools fail to identify what investors can do to capitalize on future uncertain events. “Managerial flexibility to adapt and revise future decisions in order to capitalize on favorable future opportunities or to limit losses has proven vital to long-term corporate success in an uncertain and changing marketplace” (Brennan, M.J. and E.S. Schwartz 1985, p. 15). Utilizing a real options strategy allows businesses to capture the value of managerial flexibility in adapting decisions in response to unexpected market developments. When used as a conceptual tool, real options allow management to characterize and communicate the strategic value of an investment project (Bjerksund, P. and S. Ekern 1990). Traditional methods (e.g. net present value, discounted cash flow) fail to accurately capture the economic value of investments in an environment of widespread uncertainty and rapid change. Using real options theory, managers can more effectively target crucial opportunities to redeploy, delay, modify, or even abandon capital-intensive projects...
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...Managerial Finance | Use of Real Options Theory in Financial Management/Modeling | Tiffany Allen | BUS 650 | Prof. Achilles | 11/14/2011 | | Abstract In business, as in life, you always have options to choose from. In today's extremely unstable market, managers realize how incredibly risky some investment opportunities can be, and how useful a flexible strategy can be. Using real options theory, managers can more effectively analyze opportunities to pursue, delay, modify, or abandon projects as events unfold. This paper analyzes the use of real option theory in financial management and modeling. It discusses issues included in the implementation of the theory in financial management and modeling. It explains new learning in real option theory and a case study that was able to apply the theory along with the application of the theory to my current business which has helped me understand real option theory. Use of Real Options Theory in Financial Management/Modeling The Real Option Theory has struck some interest with managers in the last couple of decades. Back in the day, companies had plenty of time to make decisions to make changes when they felt it was necessary. Now, if they take their time deciding on changes, chances are by the time they finally make a decision, another company has already made the move. Times have change and especially with how the economy is today, it’s a “Dog Eat Dog World” and in this competitive market, you...
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...Running Head: MEMORANDUM Real Option Analysis Memorandum To: CEO From: ABC Date: June 5, 2010 Sub.: Real Option Analysis Introduction In the current competitive and dynamic business environment, it is necessary for an organization to consider all the aspects before making an investment decision in a venture. It is also essential for the management of an organization to perform the analysis of operational facilities and financial facilities in a country. It helps the management to make an effective decision in invest in a venture to expand its business operation. The analysis also helps to reduce some risk that may affect the business operation. Venture The management of the organization is seeking towards facilitating its business in a new uncharted territory. The new venture may be the expansion of current product line or a new product or service. The management of the company is seeking to adjust with the growing demand in Brazil by building a new Caterpillar factory in it. The company doesn’t have information about the operational, financial and capital position in Brazil that may cause an increase in the uncertainties for the business. The organization has a leading position that will be effective tom provide unique advantages to it that is not available for the rivals maintaining purely domestic operations. In the new venture, the management may shift its value chain activities across its operation networks to eliminate the impact of...
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...Jeff Greene, Ernst & Young Liquidity, the Value of the Firm, and Corporate Finance 32 Yakov Amihud, New York University, and Haim Mendelson, Stanford University Real Asset Valuation: A Back-to-Basics Approach 46 David Laughton, University of Alberta; Raul Guerrero, Asymmetric Strategy LLC; and Donald Lessard, MIT Sloan School of Management Expected Inflation and the Constant-Growth Valuation Model 66 Michael Bradley, Duke University, and Gregg Jarrell, University of Rochester Single vs. Multiple Discount Rates: How to Limit “Influence Costs” in the Capital Allocation process 79 The Era of Cross-Border M&A: How Current Market Dynamics are Changing the M&A Landscape 84 Transfer pricing for Corporate Treasury in the Multinational Enterprise 97 The Equity Market Risk premium and Valuation of Overseas investments John Martin, Baylor University, and Sheridan Titman, University of Texas at Austin Marc Zenner, Matt Matthews, Jeff Marks, and Nishant Mago, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. 113 Stephen L. Curtis, Ernst & Young Luc Soenen,Universidad Catolica del Peru, and Robert Johnson, University of San Diego stock Option Expensing: The Role of Corporate governance 122 Sanjay Deshmukh, Keith M. Howe, and Carl Luft, DePaul University Real Options Valuation: A Case study of...
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...Real options analysis, Spring 2014 Deadline: March 17, 3:30pm, submit your solution via e‐mail to sspinler@whu.edu Filename convention:
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...SPRING 2014 Real Options Assignment Multiple Choice Questions (3 points each) 1. The following are the main types of real options: (I) The option to expand if the immediate investment project succeeds (II) The option to wait (and learn) before investing (III) The option to shrink or abandon a project (IV) The option to vary the mix of output or the firm’s production methods A) I only B) I and II only C) I, II, and III only D) I, II, III, and IV only 2. The opportunity to invest in a project can be thought of as a three-year real option on an asset which is worth $500 million (PV of the cash flows from the project) with an exercise price of $800 million (investment needed). Calculate the value of the option given that, N(d1) = 0.3 and N(d2) = 0.15. Assume that the interest rate is 6% per year. A) $150 million B) $49 million C) $30 million D) None of the above. 3. The DCF approach must be: A) Augmented by added analysis if there are no embedded options. B) Augmented by added analysis if a decision has significant embedded options. C) Jettisoned if there are any embedded options. D) Computed carefully to identify the options. 4. The following are examples of expansion options: (I) A mining company may acquire rights to an ore body that is not worth developing today but could be profitable if product prices increase (II) A film producing company acquiring the rights to a novel to produce a film based on the novel in the future (III) A real estate developer...
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...Second Order Moment Approach to Real Options Analysis Submitted as a Component of Required Courses for the Award of Bachelor of Engineering (Civil) Honours School of Civil Engineering University of New South Wales Author: Ariel Hersh October 2010 Supervisor: Professor David G. Carmichael i ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Signed …………………………………………….............. Date …………………………………………….............. ii 1. ABSTRACT Real options analysis can be used by investors to determine the value of potential investments that offer an owner the right but not the obligation to exercise a strategic decision at a predetermined time and price. Tools which are popular for valuing financial ...
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...Aswath Damodaran Stern School of Business 44 West Fourth Street New York, NY 10012 Abstract In recent years, practitioners and academics have made the argument that traditional discounted cash flow models do a poor job of capturing the value of the options embedded in many corporate actions. They have noted that these options need to be not only considered explicitly and valued, but also that the value of these options can be substantial. In fact, many investments and acquisitions that would not be justifiable otherwise will be value enhancing, if the options embedded in them are considered. In this paper, we examine the merits of this argument. While it is certainly true that there are options embedded in many actions, we consider the conditions that have to be met for these options to have value. We also develop a series of applied examples, where we attempt to value these options and consider the effect on investment, financing and valuation decisions.3 In finance, the discounted cash flow model operates as the basic framework for most analysis. In investment analysis, for instance, the conventional view is that the net present value of a project is the measure of the value that it will add to the firm taking it. Thus, investing in a positive (negative) net present value project will increase (decrease) value. In capital structure decisions, a financing mix that minimizes the cost of capital, without impairing operating cash flows, increases firm value...
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...Chapter 13 ------------------------------------------------- Capital Budgeting: Estimating Cash Flow ------------------------------------------------- and Analyzing Risk ANSWERS TO BEGINNING-OF-CHAPTER QUESTIONS 13-1 The firm’s FCFs reflect both its past and current investments. Past investments produce current FCFs, but current investments are expected to add to FCF at some future point. Conceptually, a project’s projected cash flows and are expected to contribute that same amount to the firm’s future free cash flows. In practice, project cash flows are analyzed to determine what projects the firm will invest in, and then the sum of those investments, and the cash flows they produce, will in the future be reflected in the firm’s FCFs. If a firm identifies and then invests in positive NPV projects, this will increase the value of its operations as determined by the FCF model. The central issue is analyzing individual projects, and here the key factor is assessing the cash flows. See the BOC spreadsheet model. We go through the model to show how capital budgeting projects are analyzed. In this case, the initial NPV, IRR, and MIRR, all evaluated at the 12% average cost of capital and using the expected input values, indicate that the firm should accept the project. However, the risk analysis as done in the scenario analysis indicates that the project is riskier than average, hence the evaluation should be done with a somewhat higher WACC...
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...Real Options in Corporate Finance Ellen Bjarnadóttir Thesis of 30 ECTS credits Master of Science in Financial Engineering June 2013 i Real Options in Corporate Finance (Notkun Raunvilnana við töku Fjárfestingaákvarðana) Ellen Bjarnadóttir Thesis of 30 ECTS credits submitted to the School of Science and Engineering at Reykjavík University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Financial Engineering June 2013 Supervisor: Dr.Sverrir Ólafsson. Professor in Financial Mathematichs, Reykjavík University, Iceland Examiner: Dr. Rögnvaldur Sæmundsson Associate Professor, Reyjavík University, Iceland. ii Abstract The way companies value their investment opportunities has changed in recent years. With changing market conditions companies are constantly confronted with investment decisions that are increasingly uncertain. Known investment analysis such as net present value and decision tree analysis increasingly undervalue investment opportunities as they lack the flexibility and ability to modify projects when new information is available. A method based on financial option valuation has become the basis for a new technique to value high risk investment opportunities. It is based on valuation in the risk-neutral world and therefore eliminates investors’ attitude to risk. Real option analysis can capture the value of this increased flexibility, which previous methods have not been able to, such as the option to defer, abandon...
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...Multi-period Capital Budgeting under Uncertainty: Real Options Analysis” Table of Contents Section | Name | Page no. | Letter of Transmittal | i | Acknowledgement | ii | Table of Contents | iii | Section-A | Introduction | 01-02 | | A.1 Introduction | 01 | | A.2 Rationale of the study | 01 | | A.3 Objective of Our Study | 02 | | A.4 Scope | 02 | | A.5 Methodology of the Study | 02 | | A.6 Limitations of the Study | 02 | Section-B | Comparing NPV with Decision Trees and Real Options | 03-08 | | B.1 Comparing NPV with Decision Trees and Real Options | 03-05 | | B.2 Recognizing Real Options | 05 | | B.3 Differences between NPV, Decision Trees, and Real Options | 05-08 | | B.4 Risk-Neutral Probabilities | 08 | Section-C | Three Key Assumptions for pricing Real Options | 09-10 | | C.1 Three Key Assumptions for pricing Real Options | 09-10 | Section-D | Valuing Real Options on Dividend-Paying Assets | 10-12 | | D.1 Valuing Real Options on Dividend-Paying Assets | 10-12 | Section-E | Types of Real Options | 12-13 | | E.1 Types of Real Options | 12-13 | Section-F | Valuing Combinations of Simple Real Options | 13-16 | | F.1 Valuing Combinations of Simple Real Options | 13-16 | Section-G | Valuing Compound Options | 17-21 | | G.1 Simultaneous Compound Options | 17-19 | | G.2 Sequential Compound Options | 19-21 | Section-H | Switching Option | 22-26 | | H.1 Switching Option | 22-26 | Section-I | An Example of how to...
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...Business 650, Managerial Finance Use of Real Options Theory Financial Management/Modeling I April 18, 2011nstructor: Abstract At a previous employment environment, the president of the corporation acted on a whim, rather than, conducting a series of testing for his expansion to go into other businesses ventures. Within a few short months, the plan was abandoned for lack of profitability. As an employee, I thought of this as a failure on the owner’s part. However, the Real Options Theory is basically, weighing the outcome for expansion or acquisition utilizing capital investments for future ventures. Consider Real Option theory as a method to remove some of the risk in capital investments. Helpful assistance and decision making can be derived using such charts as the Decision Tree. The decision can be extremely tiresome. Use of Real Options Theory in Financial Management/Modeling Long past are the days, where a company can sit idling waiting for an idea, because while waiting someone else is making the move. The benefits that an older company may experience through experience may not fit into today’s society of technological changes. However, the risk of a company that has existed over 50 years, can they lose to new companies that evolve because of revolutionary changes in the ability to change the course of history. Creating valuable service for consumers and bringing a product or service to market, must be planned to meet the expectations of stockholder...
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...STEP 1: Picture the problem When it comes to visualizing real options, we are really trying to visualize how the flexibility to alter an investment’s scale, scope, and timing enhances the value of an investment. In effect, visualizing the real options involves trying to look into the future and imagining how the project at hand might be altered to increase its value. STEP 2: Decide on a solution strategy Real options arise out of flexibility or opportunities to do different things with an investment over its useful life. So we need to look for the opportunities presented to Imperial Properties in the two properties. STEP 3: Solve The primary option presented to Imperial in this situation is the option to develop the properties and change them from two 4-apartment units to two luxury 10-apartment units. However, to exercise this option Imperial must commit to a $1.5 million building program for each building. Moreover, we are left with the impression that Imperial holds the option to develop one or both buildings. This suggests that if the firm undertakes one of the building projects it can defer the second until it sees how the first proceeds. STEP 4: Analyze Options add value to projects and generally indicate that static NPV calculations will underestimate the value of the investment opportunity. This results from the fact that where managers have the flexibility (options) to respond to changing economic conditions, they can modify or halt the operation of the...
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...WHEN TO ISSUE THE NONVOTING CLASS A STOCK MLCM believed that market condition would deteriorate further during the week of October 5, and strongly recommended that Spiegel price the Class A shares in the next 48 hours or postpone the offering indefinitely. Now whether MLCM was right or not it will be judged by real option valuation. We showed the decision analysis by using both the FCF and the net cash flow. We have used three options such as a. Timing option, b. Decision Tree Analysis, and c. Option to Wait (Black Scholes Model). |1. Timing Option | We have used Timing Option to calculate the NPV if the stocks were issued immediately. Here we consider FCF in the three methods. Here, we assume 30% probability for high demand, 40% for average and 30% for low demand. We calculated the net annual cash flow for each scenario and then calculated the expected NPV for the issuance. |Demand |Probability |Annual FCF |E(NPV) | |High |30% |142400.97 |686590.51 | |Average |40% |109539.20 |526734.24 | |Low |30% |76677.44 |366877.96 | If Spiegel issued the stocks immediately the Expected net present value gained by the company would be...
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...risk * How does fit into Peru and our strategic objectives? * Tax rates/relief * Capital market conditions (we need a lot of capital) If you had to evaluate this as a traditional NPV project, what cash flows and what discount rate? * Project cash flows depend on price path → Monte Carlo simulates different paths * We can then use three possible outcomes (high, medium and low) and if we take the EV of the three → expected cash flows * We need to take the appropriate discount rate → probably pretty high Is this the right way to model this project? We are ignoring the options → flexibility is worth something * Abandon after exploration without penalty * Spend less on development * If we’re not happy with prices, we can lower or temp shutdown production * Abandon the project How do we value a project using real options? * Use traditional option models (binomial model or Black Scholes) to model variability/risk/the stochastic nature (as opposed to static nature) of key variables * Simulation models, e.g., a Monte Carlo...
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