Consider the extent to which short-term factors are now far more important than long-term factors in shaping voting behaviour.

Many factors are said to impact the way in which people vote, some factors been long term whilst some are seen to be short term, however it is evident they all cross over to determine the way in which people vote. However, Peter Pulser once said that ‘ class is the basis of all party politics all else is embellishment and detail’ however this long-term factor has an impact along side other factors that shape voting behaviour these are Ethnicity, the Media, Age and recent events.

Firstly, class is an important determinant of voting behaviour and this is a long-term factor. In the 1950s/60s, due to strong class alignment particular groups identified strongly with a class. This meant that people were more likely to turnout and vote for a particular party because of their allegiances. A/B/C1 were linked to the Conservatives because of their strong stance on tax and law and order, whilst C2/D/E were Labour since they were likely to be unionised and or accessing the Welfare State. However, since the introduction of Thatcher’s ‘right to buy’ people began to feel more middle class; also referred to as embourgeoisement. However, since Thatcher C2 voters were labelled as ‘the working class Tories’ with Thatcher receiving more votes from the C2 voters, however in the 2010 general election the conservatives gained votes from all ‘classes’. The idea that class is a key determiner in the way shaping voting behaviour is supported by Peter Pulser quote ‘ class is the basis of all party politics all else is embellishment and detail.’ This therefore shows that class, as a long-term factor is just as important as a short-term factor in shaping voting behaviour.

However, it could be argued the increase in votes from conservatives could be due to the media. The short-term factor is said to have a significant impact on shaping voting behaviour. A sustained media focus upon negative aspects of a party, can have an impact upon voter perceptions. For example, the focus upon ‘sleaze’ and division over Europe within the Conservative government of John Major was said to have impacted the Tories in the 1997 general election. In the 1980s, most newspapers supported the Conservatives, where as since 1997, most newspapers supported Labour. Based on this evidence, newspapers may have an influence on the way in which people vote. It is clearly evident as to which newspapers are biased to which political party, with the Daily Mirror and The Guardian strongly supporting Labour whilst the Daily Mail and Telegraph support the Tories. The Internet now plays an important role in influencing voters. Like newspapers, websites are allowed to show bias. Politicians and political parties are keen to use websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts or having listings on social networking websites like facebook and twitter as a way of reaching voters, especially young voters. Young voters are less likely to vote. Voter apathy is a major obstacle for all political parties and politicians alike, with only 61% of voters turning out to vote in the 2005 General Election. We can clearly see the correlation between the media and the way in which people, yet long term-factors can shape peoples voting behaviour just as much for example the race of the voters may impact their vote.

Therefore another long-term factor said to have an impact on the shaping of voting behaviour is Ethnicity. Bill Coxall and Lynton Robyns estimated that in 1996 around 49 seats where margin of victory was smaller than the number of ethnic minority voters in the consistency. However, it is said that they tend to support Labour as they are from poor urban areas and therefore are more likely to support the areas in which they live in, Although, in the 2003 Labour supported the Iraq war therefore a loss in votes occurred, even resulting in Oona King losing her seat to George Galloway in Bethnal Green and Bow.
Finally, another long term factor that is seen to affect the way in which people vote is age, it is seen typically that older people tend to vote for the Tories and support their policies for law orders and whilst younger voters tend to support Labour as it is more radical and also aims to provide the younger generation with more opportunities. However, in the 2010 general election, Labour lost 7% of u45’s voters and it is suggested that this is due to the top up university fees. Whilst many believe the older voters will continue to support the Tories due to the idea of the grey vote and them being fearful of change. Both age and ethnicity clearly impact the way in which people, and therefore shows that short-term factors are not more important than long-term factors.
We can clearly see that both short term and long term factors could have an impact on the way in which people vote. It is however not evident that short term factors are more important than long term factors in shaping voting behaviour because they all over cross-over characteristics that shape the way in which people vote.