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教育预测与规划复习题
一、简答题
1.简述国外学者将教育规划分成哪几种主要类型?
2.进行教育预测与规划时候应该考虑的经济因素。
3.根据实际需要可以对教育预测进行哪些分类?
4.简述教育规划论证的主要组织形式?
5. 简述头脑风暴预测法的优缺点。
6. 简述影响教育规划准确性的因素
7. 简述教育预测的程序。
8. 简述德尔菲预测法的实施步骤?
9. 简述选取教育预测方法时应考虑的因素。
10.简述教育计划与教育规划的区别与联系
11.简述教育规划草案论证工作的主要步骤。
12.简述教育规划人员的基本素质要求。

二、问答题
1. 举例说明教育规划的功能
2. 试论制定教育规划的基本要求。
3. 选择教育规划方法时应考虑什么问题?
4. 论述教育预测的基本原理.
5.结合实际分析草拟教育规划时应注意的问题。
6.. 常用的教育规划方法有哪些?
三、计算题
(一)1.有11位专家参加“某地区2008年高中升学率”的德尔菲预测调查,调查的第二轮结果为:50%,50%,50%,55%,55%,55%,60%,60%,60%,60%,65%。求它们的中位数和上、下四分位效
2.有20名专家参与“某地区普及计算机教育的小学达到95%的年份”的德尔菲预测调查,调查的第二轮结果为:4,4,4,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,7,8,8,9,10。求它们的中位数和上、下四分位数
3. 有13名专家参与“某地区2010年大学生就业率”的德尔菲预测调查,调查的第二轮结果为:70%,70%,70%,70%,75%,75%,75%,80%,80%,80%,85%,85%,85%。求它们的中位数和上下四分位数。
4. 有14名专家参与“某地区大学生英语四级通过率达到6O%的年份”的德尔菲预测调查,
调查的第二轮结果为:5,5,5,6,6,7,7,7,8,8,9,9,10,10。求它们的中位数和上下四分位数。
5. 有15名专家参与“某地区男女性别比率”的德尔菲预测调查,调查的第二轮结果为:1.1,1.1,1.1,1.2,1.2,1.2,1.2,1.3,1.3,1.3,1.3,1.4,1.4,1.4,1.4。求它们的中位数和上、下四分位数

(二)
1.表为某考试科目8年来的合格率及权数。分别求出该科目8年来合格率的算术平均数和加权平均数。
[pic]

2. (1)根据表1中的数据,建立学生高考化学等级成绩Y关于平时化学成绩X的线 性回归方程。(结果保留2位小数) 表1

[pic]
(2)从表1中数据算得变量X与变量Y的相关系数为rxy=0.955,取自由度df=n-2,在0.01水平下,问变量Y与变量X之间是否存在着显著的一元线性回归关系?
表2 积差相关系数(r)显著性临界值表

[pic]
3.
(1)根据表1中的数据,建立学生高考物理等级成绩Y关于平时化学成绩X的线 性回归方程。(结果保留2位小数) 表1

[pic]
(2)从表1中数据算得变量X与变量Y的相关系数为rxy=0.955,取自由度df=n-2,在0.01水平下,问变量Y与变量X之间是否存在着显著的一元线性回归关系?
表2 积差相关系数(r)显著性临界值表
[pic]
4. (1)根据表1中的数据,建立学生高考数学等级成绩Y与英语成绩X的线 性回归方程。
[pic]
(2)从表1中数据算得变量X与变量Y的相关系数为rxy=0.764,取自由度df=n-2,在0.01水平下,问变量Y与变量X之间是否存在着显著的一元线性回归关系?
表2 积差相关系数(r)显著性临界值表
[pic]
第一种类型的计算:
共以四种情况:
1.专家人数n为偶数,且n=2k时,k为偶数时,即n=4,8,…可用下述公示计算:
中位数:Mmdn=1/2(Xn/2+Xn/2+1)
上四分位数:Q1== 1/2(Xk/2+Xk/2+1)
下四分位数:Q2== 1/2(X3k/2+X3k/2+1)
如第二题:专家数为n=20为偶数,且n=2k,,k=10为偶数,
所以,中位数:Mmdn=1/2(Xn/2+Xn/2+1)=1/2(X10+X11)=1/2(6+7)=6.5
上四分位数:Q1== 1/2(Xk/2+Xk/2+1) ==1/2(X5+X6)=1/2(5+6)=5.5
下四分位数:Q2== 1/2(X3k/2+X3k/2+1) ==1/2(X15+X16)=1/2(7+7)=7
2.专家人数n为偶数,且n=2k时,k为奇数时,即n=6,10,…可用下述公式计算:
中位数:Mmdn=1/2(Xn/2+Xn/2+1)
上四分位数:Q1== X(k+1)/2
下四分位数:Q1== X(3k+1)/2
3. 专家人数n为奇数,且n=2k+1时,k为偶数时,即n=5,9,…可用下述公示计算:
中位数:Mmdn=X(n+1)/2
上四分位数:Q1== 1/2(Xk/2+Xk/2+1)
下四分位数:Q2== 1/2(X3k/2+1+X3k/2+2)
4.专家人数n为奇数,且n=2k+1时,k为奇数时,即n=7,11,…可用下述公示计算:
中位数:Mmdn=X(n+1)/2
上四分位数:Q1== X(k+1)/2
下四分位数:Q1== X(3k+3)/2

如第一题:专家数为n=11为奇数,且n=2k+1,k=5为奇数,
所以,中位数Mmdn=X(n+1)/2=X6=55%;
上四分位数:Q1== X(k+1)/2==X3==50%
下四分位数:Q1== X(3k+3)/2==X9==60%

第二种类型的计算:
第2题:第一小问,从表中找出相应的数值,代入公式计算即可,
b1==(113—3.86×28)/(111—3.86×27)== 4.92/6.78≈0.73 b0===4—0.73×3.86≈1.18 回归方程为:y=1.18+ 0.73x 第二问,查表:r0.01=0.959,给出的rxy==0.955,
因为r0.01=0.959>rxy==0.955,所以变量Y与变量X之间不存在着显著的一元线性回归关系。

归纳:1.对于第一问只需在表中找到相应的数字,代入公式即可计算出来;
2.相关性的计算,首先找到Df=n—2中,n—2对应的r0.01数值(如果要你求0.001水平下,则需要找0.001那一列对于的n—2的数值),然后将在表中查到的这个数值跟题目中给出的rxy数值进行比较,若rxy数值大于r0.01的数值,则呈现显著相关关系,反之则没有相关关系。

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