...The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” Article Summary In the context of the global financial crisis and the turbulence that this has brought to the world economy and therefore to organisations, the article “The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” by Gill Ringland published in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social change volume 77 (9) aims to persuade the reader on the need for strategic foresight over the next decade and what role scenarios can play within strategy foresight activities in organisations (Ringland, 2010). The author predicts that organisations in the west will experience a period of great change and that they are mostly ill-prepared to deal with the rate or the enormity of this change. Ringland believes that conventional business planning will need to change and suggests the need to develop a systematic review of organisational practices that will lead to strategic foresight. This will ensure that organisations are in a position to cope and survive changes in their external environment. Ringland begins by pointing out that the current position of the world economy shows that business and government have a significant debt burden that will take years to pay back especially in the west. In an environment of unemployment, reduced consumer spending and debt repayment, wealthy nations will recover slower than developing nations. There is also a shift in international competitiveness due to changes in labour skills and costs as well as technological...
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...Scenarios planning is the main technique to study the future, and it have been used since long time by the government planners, corporate managers and military analysts, as important tool to help them in making decision to face the uncertainty. The idea of scenario planning is to establish about possible future where it can minimise surprises and broaden the span of managers. Today the scenarios planning they have become extremely popular. ( Chermack, T. J. 2003). Scenario planning is a group‐based decision making tool, which has its roots in post‐ WWII military planning and the petroleum industry of the 1970s such as Royal Dutch Company. Unlike its cousins, forecasting and prediction, scenario planning does not attempt to project future outcomes based on data from the past. These methods can often lead to “tunnel vision”, due to their preference of one outcome over another. Scenario planning, as described by Peter Schwartz, Chairman of Global Business Network (GBN), “…is a tool for better decision making…Business and governments employ this tool because it helps them to make better strategic decisions.” (Schlegel, G. L., & Murray, P. 2010) The History of Scenario Planning Scenario planning arose out of a need to plan for futures filled with much uncertainty. This uncertainty is particularly magnified in military operations, which is why scenario‐type planning can be traced back to 19‐century military ...
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...Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight (Liebl 2010) Table of contents 1. Summary of the article 3 2. Analysis of the strength and weakness of the argument 5 2.1 Strengths 5 2.2 Weakness 6 3. Implications for the top management 7 4. Conclusion 8 Appendix A 10 Appendix B 11 1. Summary of the article “In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things” (Musashi 2009). * This article focuses on trend diagnosis for strategic foresight in its entirety. The author scrutinizes that although trend is an imperative concept in the strategic issue management, the interpretation of trend in strategic foresight is ambiguous. This paper conceptualizes, from a strategic point of view, trend as an innovation (socio-cultural) and elaborate the implications with respect to strategic issue diagnosis. (Liebl 2010) * * * * * The figure above (Liebl 2010) depicts an elaborate framework for conceptualizing trends. The strategic trend diagnosis has to deal with two different aspects of innovation: invention and diffusion. The invention aspect of a trend is identifying “The New” results from a transgression of contextual boundaries whereas the diffusion is a process of normalization (Normality and Abnormality) – i.e., a new socio-cultural practice becomes a social convention and...
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...American Symphony Orchestra The concert I attended at Carnegie Hall on October 21, the conductor Leon Botstein and the American Symphony Orchestra explored the influence of Bach on the Bauhaus. One thing you can’t fault the American Symphony Orchestra for is lack of ambitious programming. The two hour long concert that they presented included impressive orchestrations of Bach chorales; preludes and fugues by Max Reger, Arnold Schoenberg and Wolfgang Gräser; as well as three complex fugues by Lyonel Feininger, and Schoenberg’s “Variations for Orchestra”, Op. 31. However, once the concert began it became clear that the American Symphony Orchestra had bit off slightly more than they could chew. In much of the Bach, including O Mensch, Bewein’ dein’ Sünde gross, section entrances were timid and the beginnings and endings of phrases were uncoordinated. Leon Botstein’s conducting did little to diminish the ensemble’s problems; alternately vague and abrupt. Intonation problems in the bass and viola sections abounded. There also appeared to be a conflict among the string players about the use of vibrato throughout the works by Bach, with some players employing lush, romantic vibrato and other players using none at all. In Bach’s Prelude and Fugue BWV 552, “St. Anne,” the principal cellist played out of tune and appeared to lose his place within the solo. The concertmaster’s solos, in contrast, were effortlessly brilliant. Her understated style of leadership also deserves...
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...Critical Essay Industry Definition and Competitor Analysis in Strategic Management Question: ‘A “strategic group” continues to be commonly defined as a group of firms within the same industry making similar decisions in key areas’ (Reger and Huff, 1993). Analyse the process of industry definition and competitor analysis as elements of strategic management. There have been numerous viewpoints on the subject of strategy and its role in business since the advent of the industrial revolution and the development of modern management practice. Many modern day theorists and students of the subject, me included, are of the viewpoint that Strategy in business is an ever evolving subject. Strategy can be interpreted and utilised in a number of ways and no theory or viewpoint should be disregarded as each question asked and each framework devised can be beneficial when applied to any situation which merits strategic evaluation. Industry definition is an integral part of the strategic process as a business needs to establish where it will be active, i.e. which market it will be involved in, how to access this market and then how to control the market. This could be equated to The ‘P’ in the well known PESTAL Analysis framework, where the business establishes its position in the marketplace. In Hambrick and Fredrickson’s framework ‘The Five Major Elements of Strategy’ the authors list Arenas, Vehicles, Differentiators, Staging and Economic Logic as the five most important areas...
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...LITERATURE REVIEW Every child must be protected against all forms of exploitation, indecent or degrading treatment, including child labour, abduction and sale (UNICEF 2000). According to UNICEF, exploiting the labour of a child means employing a person below the age of 15 years and paying him/her less than the minimum standard wage. Olafsen, Corwin and Summit (1993) have argued that cycles of awareness followed by suppression have typified society's response to child sexual abuse. Arguably, this has been society's response to all forms of child abuse and neglect of children they also expressed that mass media education and prevention campaigns present one means of breaking cycles of suppression and denial. The media have played a key role in periodically placing the issue of child abuse on the public agenda The International Labour Organization estimates there are 246 million working children aged between five and seventeen worldwide(Anti-slavery International 2002). At least 179million are estimated to work in the worst form of child labour – one out of the world’s five to seventeen years old. According to the ILO (2006),111 million children under 15 are in hazardous work and should be immediately withdrawn from this work. ILO (1996:12) states that approximately130,000 children work in India’s hand-knotted carpet industry, 80% of whom are located in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous state (over140 million people) and the centre of the rug industry. ILO described...
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...Romano, etc…) para o Monismo (do grego μόνος - mónos, "sozinho, único"), em que se tende para a supremacia da lei enquanto fonte de Direito, não foi imediata, correspondendo a um longo período em que o monarca, nomeadamente D. Afonso II (a partir de 1211 com a Cúria de Coimbra) foi assumindo as vestes de legislador habitual, em crescentes tentativas de afirmação da Lei Régia enquanto “regra obrigatória imposta pela vontade do superior”, e de controlo das demais fontes (como o beneplácito régio). Saliente-se que, devido à quantidade crescente de leis avulsas, torna-se necessário proceder à organização das mesmas, surgindo as Ordenações do Reino. Estas traduzem a consciência política da necessidade de existir um depositório de normas para reger a vida das pessoas, destinada principalmente aos órgãos aplicadores de direito: os tribunais. Nas Ordenações Afonsinas, de 1446, surge como afirmação perentória de que “onde a lei do Reino dispõe, cessam todas as outras leis e Direitos”, frase essa que é repetida e reforçada nas posteriores Ordenações Manuelinas e Filipinas. Também é frequente depararmo-nos com várias referências ao...
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...FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Violet Silk Industries 123 Abcde Rd. Marietta, CA 25365 www.violetsilkindustries.net Contact: Mark Silkman Office: 555.123.4568 Pager: 555.234.9548 Fax – 555.123.7654 msilkman@violetsilkindustries.net Violet Silk Industries’ CFO Has Departed Amid SEC Investigation Marietta, CA December 10, 2012 – For unknown reasons, CFO John Doe, Jr. suddenly departed from Violet Silk Industries (VSI) yesterday. Prior to his departure, a SEC investigation was launched to determine if the accounting practices surrounding revenue recognition of VSI were faulty. VSI is cooperating with the investigation and has hired an external audit team to analyze GAAP revenue recognition compliance. VSI’s controller, Bluie Redman will serve as interim CFO, effective immediately, while the board of directors selects a new CFO. VSI reports that it is not currently aware of any wrongdoing, but will provide more information as it becomes known. About Violet Silk Industries: Violet Silk Industries is a publicly traded company that imports and exports silk fabric to and from third world countries. The company started in 2002 as a roadside silk fabric vendor and within three years expanded to its headquarters in California and four import/export plants. For further information, contact Mark Silkman at 555-123-4568. ### MEMORANDUM To: Mr. Yung-Guy, Manager From: your name, CPA Subject: PR Communications about CFO departure Date: December 10, 2012 CC: your facilit...
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...Review for Head, Neck, Lymphatics, Eye, Ear, Nose, Mouth, Throat NR302 unit 3 eyes= should be in line how.. if not in line.. Sutures- Fontanels-should be- if bulging = if sucken = * -closes around= * -closes around= pregnant- what may occur.. what does it look like.. enlargment of what.. headachs occur beacue of.. preeclampsia syndrome is.. what increases.. this can .. lymphatics- are.. provides.. by producing.. picks up what.. Lymph nodes- should be- if they are this may be .. * * * * * * * * * enlargment of lymph nodes is called.. PIH-headaches- mostly due to = * -evertyhing is= -pain is= -ocurrs with= * -lasts= -by= -causes= -pain is= -located= * -lasts= -pain is= -there is no= -located= bloody nose Bruit= sound like -due to= -which will= =and will= -use what part to listen= Crepitation/ TMJ syndrome= may indcate= TMJ= Causes of tracheal shift=it is maybe to due to * * * * * -is a = -what happens with the trachea= Hyperthyroidism= is the gland is= person is= weight= bowel movement= dieases= eyes= hair= feels= hypothyroidism= is lowers the- loss of- deficiency of- mostly in- person is- weight- feels- dieases- temperal artery should feel= should not be- can lead to if it is- thyroid gland is the must be- palpating for- if there is may indicate- enlargment of the thyroid will appear when.. neck ROM should not - if there is- carotid artery should...
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...Even though centuries have passed since the very first bicycle was invented, the popularity of bicycles does not seem to decline with the lapse of time. Not only are they the indispensable means of transportation in most parts of the world, but they also evolved into a recreational sport which plentiful health benefits come along. However, the need for using bicycles for travel in a modern transportation system, especially that of an urban area, has been questioned in recent years with respect to its cost-effectiveness. In this essay, I examine both the benefits and drawbacks of the use of bicycles in public transport and form a brief conclusion based on my stance on this issue. Some advocates argue that cycling can greatly reduce the air pollution in Hong Kong. The air quality in urban areas of Hong Kong is worsening each day due to detrimental emissions and pollutants produced by the heavy traffic volume, which mainly consists of motor vehicles. Hitchcock and Vedrenne (2014) consider bicycles to be promising alternatives for motor vehicles in an effort to improve the air quality of urban areas, since they are low-carbon and human-powered vehicles that produce zero emissions when ridden. Indeed, bicycles are more environmental-friendly than motor vehicles, but its effectiveness in making a difference to the general air quality remains questionable. The findings from the research conducted by Rakowska et al. (2014) imply that reducing the portion of motor vehicles in...
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...‘Ideologies have become irrelevant to the discussion of politics since the collapse of the communism in East Europe.’(Fukuyama francis,1989) I disagree with this statement in a large extent. Overview Fukuyama published the idea of ‘end of ideology’, which became a controversial issue in 1989. No doubt, fascism and communism had both lost their appeal after the collapse of the communism in east Europe. In the postwar period, the three ideologies-liberalism, socialism and conservation –came to accept the common goal of capitalism. ( Lee, 1990) However, it does not mean that capitalism is a triumph of the world. Jacques mentions that there are many types of Marxism. For instance, orthodox Marxism is produced by the unique history tradition. Therefore, when one specific communism is collapsed, it does not mean that the communism is collapsed. In fact, there still are states that pursue other types of communism. People reflect and become interested in Marxist if capitalism cannot bring them into utopian era. There is no way to say that ideologies are becoming irrelevant to the discussion of politics. Also, All human are political thinkers. We all have difficult thoughts and diverse perceptions when the things happen around us. Modern ideologies such as feminism and ecologism are witnessed. From the observations and judgments, we can find out our own belief of what our world is and what we ought to be. ‘equality , ’rights’ ,’freedom’ ,’justice’ are the expression...
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...Social Marketing Campaigns and Children’s Media Use Social Marketing Campaigns and Children’s Media Use W. Douglas Evans Summary Media-related commercial marketing aimed at promoting the purchase of products and services by children, and by adults for children, is ubiquitous and has been associated with negative health consequences such as poor nutrition and physical inactivity. But, as Douglas Evans points out, not all marketing in the electronic media is confined to the sale of products. Increasingly savvy social marketers have begun to make extensive use of the same techniques and strategies used by commercial marketers to promote healthful behaviors and to counter some of the negative effects of conventional media marketing to children and adolescents. Evans points out that social marketing campaigns have been effective in helping to prevent and control tobacco use, increase physical activity, improve nutrition, and promote condom use, as well as other positive health behaviors. He reviews the evidence from a number of major recent campaigns and programming in the United States and overseas and describes the evaluation and research methods used to determine their effectiveness. He begins his review of the field of social marketing by describing how it uses many of the strategies practiced so successfully in commercial marketing. He notes the recent development of public health brands and the use of branding as a health promotion strategy. He then goes on ...
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...TOPIC: THE IMPROVEMENT OF EFFICENCY AND EFFECTIVENESS AMONG UUM STAFF’S BY USING MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM (MIS) * DV- Efficiency and effectiveness among staff of management in UUM * IV- Management Information System (MIS) Abstract An efficiency of management in university is depends on its staff who worked at different sector and different department. It is because the staff play an important role to the development of an university. The purpose by doing this research is to study the effect of management information system in efficiency and effectiveness of management among UUM staff. In this study, we focused on College of Business staff in UUM. We distributed a questionnaire to 140 sample of staff from total number of population which is 220 that inquired about their satisfaction in doing their worked by using management information system and how the system effect the quality of efficiency and effectiveness among them based on nominal, interval and ordinal scale. According to our result, the uses of management information system effect their efficiency and effectiveness as most of the work they do are based on the system. CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION 1.1 INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY The information system are consider such as arena which is concerning to provide the information for using it in the organization, and the information and its system have took today dimension well, because its became dealing with it now as a resource from the organization resources...
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...Journal of Applied Psychology 2008, Vol. 93, No. 2, 453– 462 Copyright 2008 by the American Psychological Association 0021-9010/08/$12.00 DOI: 10.1037/0021-9010.93.2.453 Employee Resistance to Organizational Change: Managerial Influence Tactics and Leader–Member Exchange Stacie A. Furst University of Cincinnati Daniel M. Cable The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill The authors explored the relationship between managerial influence tactics and employee resistance to organizational change. Using attribution theory, the authors developed a series of hypotheses concerning the effects of influence tactics on employee resistance to change and the ways in which these relationships are moderated by leader–member exchange. Results, which are based on multisource data, suggest that employee resistance reflects both the type of influence a manager uses and the strength of leader–member exchange. Keywords: organizational change, influence tactics, leader–member exchange, attribution theory Organizations are cooperative systems that rely on the willingness of members to behave in ways that support the organization (Barnard, 1938). However, people’s personal goals often differ from those of the organization, and a primary responsibility of managers is to persuade members to direct their efforts toward organizational goals (Cyert & March, 1963). The importance of employee cooperation may be particularly salient during organizational change—when an organization sets...
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...HANDBOOK of PSYCHOLOGY VOLUME 12 INDUSTRIAL AND ORGANIZATIONALPSYCHOLOGY Walter C. Borman Daniel R. lIgen Richard J. Klimoski Volume Editors Irving B. Weiner Editor-in-Chief 13 THEORIES AND PRACTICES OF ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT John R. Austin and Jean M. Bartunek 309 ~ John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CHAPTER 13 Theories and Practices of Organizational Development JOHN R. AUSTIN AND JEAN M. BARTUNEK ORGANIZATION DEVELOPMENT TODAY, NOT YESTERDAY 310 THE CONCEPTUAL 'KNOWLEDGE OF ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 311 Change Process Theories 312 Samples of Contemporary Interventions in Organizational Development 316 Implementation Theories 319 THE CONNECTION BETWEEN IMPLEMENTATION THEORIES AND CHANGE PROCESS THEORIES 321 THE DIVIDE BETWEEN IMPLEMENTATIONTHEORIES AND CHANGE PROCESS THEORIES 322 Barrier 1: Different Knowledge Validation Meth~ 322 Barrier 2: Different Goals and Audiences 323 Barrier 3: Different Theoretical Antecedents 324 STRATEGIES FOR OVERCOMING BARRIERS TO KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER 324 Same-Author Translation 325 Multiple-Author Translation 325 Common Language Translation 326 Translating Implementation Theory to Change Process Theory 326 CONCLUSION 326 REFERENCES 327 From its roots in action research in the 1940s and 1950s (Collier, 1945), and building on Lewin's insight that "there is nothing so practical as a good theory" (Lewin, 1951, p. 169), organizational development has explicitly emphasized both the practice. and the scholarship of...
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