...Introduction United Parcel Service (UPS), as of 2005, has become the world’s largest package-delivery company as well as offering specialized transportation and logistics services. However such success is likely attributed to the strategic planning of the executive leaders of the company. Mike Eskew, the Chairman and CEO, said, “the future of our company will be no better or worse than the quality of planning we do to prepare for it.” Eskew realized that preparing strategy for a company is the most vital catalyst for success. While typically strategy is set with short period goals, UPS found it necessary to develop a set of long-term goals for which they can make decisions that impact their company years down the road. The way that UPS decided to set their long-term framework was through scenario planning. Scenario planning is a strategic method that has the team map driving forces defined by two axes, creating four quadrants. These four quadrants are then identified by combining the forces into four possible outcomes known as scenarios. Overtime, the scenarios are defined and written out such as positives and negatives of each scenario, a description of how it might come to fruition as well as naming each scenario so that it is easily referred to in future strategy decisions. Over a period of almost 20 years, UPS decided to take strategy planning seriously: 1991 Coporate Mission and Strategy Statement introduced 1996 Strategy Advisory Group and Corporate Strategy Group...
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...questions What are the strengths and weaknesses of scenario planning? What is your evaluation of UPS’s 1997 scenario planning exercise? Its Horizon 2017 planning exercise? How do the two efforts compare? Evaluate the following elements of UPS’s approach to strategic planning: The UPS charter The Centennial Plan The Strategy Road Map Why was John McDevitt put in charge of “strategic integration?” Should he remain in that role? What is the strength and weakness of scenario planning? Strength Build foundation for source of long term competitive advantage Provide backdrop of strategic decision (pg.6) • Acquisition of Mail Boxes Etc. Change mind-set • Make people think beyond the operational mind • Prepare to be proactive and creative Enable to be sensitive for change in external environment Alternative views of the future Provide and prepare the company for potential change in the future’s market. Weakness Lack of realism Requires learning curve to have adequate result Too abstract and difficult to apply Indirect linkage to daily operation or strategy Depend on participants’ motivation and knowledge Not point out the strengths and weakness of company What is your evaluation of UPS’s 1997 scenario planning exercise? Evaluation on 1997 Scenario planning Initiative to build foundation for source of long term competitive advantage Positive aspects • Become backdrop of UPS Charter and changed mission statement • Initiate to...
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...* What is scenario planning? Under what conditions is it useful? How important do you think scenario planning is as a context for international marketing planning? Scenario planning is defined as strategic planning method that organization use to make flexible long term plans based on generating a number of “what if” situations and then options on how they might respond to those situations( Keeley, 2011). In other word scenario planning a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting the business. It is strategy tool used to discover potential future environments in order to understand how today’s strategic decisions will have an impact on an organizations in times to come. The key elements in scenario planning are “creative thinking, imagination, an informal methodology and use of qualitative, subjective information” scenario planning does not predict the future; rather it considers the complete scope of likely forces that might have impact on an organization. These may be intellectual, natural, social, political, economic, cultural or technological. Scenario planning is an important strategic tool for the business. Marketers can make choices through the scenario planning. The options can be screened by matching them to possible scenarios. Scenario planning provides tools for an organization to respond critical changes. It provides methods for understanding...
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...GARVIN LYNNE C. LEVESQUE Strategic Planning at United Parcel Service We fully recognize that it is not possible to develop a true strategic plan more than a few years out and that business plans should have an even shorter horizon. But we are convinced that it is possible and wise, indeed necessary, to develop a set of very long-range scenarios that can form the foundation for our future strategic plans. — Michael (Mike) J. Eskew, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, United Parcel Service (UPS) As Mike Eskew walked through the long, open atrium of UPS’s corporate headquarters late in March 2005, he thought about his upcoming lunch meeting with Vice President of Corporate Strategy Vern Higberg. Higberg was preparing a presentation for the senior management strategy committee, the Strategy Advisory Group, on improvements to the strategic-planning process. While the company had made major progress in planning for the future over the past 10 years, Eskew had charged Higberg and his colleagues with developing recommendations for moving forward, citing one of his predecessors, who had said, “The future of our company will be no better or worse than the quality of planning we do to prepare for it.” Company Background History In 1907, 19-year-old Jim Casey borrowed $100 from friends to start the small company that eventually became UPS. From its humble origins delivering messages for the city of Seattle, Washington, UPS had grown into a $37 billion corporation...
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...UPS, United Parcel Service, was first established in 1907 as a messenger company in the United States. UPS is by far one of the world's largest package delivery company, while also being a leading global provider of specialized transportation and logistics services. UPS uses advanced technology, which grants them complete access to global resources. In addition, they are part of an integrated network of physical, technological, and also human assets. Moreover, UPS provides and demonstrates a very strong and prominent competitive advantage that in turn greatly helps you sustain repeat customers and thereby consistently grow your business. Over the years, UPS has grown into a multi-billion-dollar corporation by drawing their focus in on the primary goal of enabling commerce around the globe. Currently, UPS is a global company with one of the most recognized and admired brands in the world. They have became the world's largest package delivery company and a leading global provider of specialized transportation and logistics services. As each and every day passes, UPS maintains the flow of goods, funds, and information in more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. To briefly discuss how UPS understands where they are positioned in the marketplace, from a strategic standpoint, a SWOT analysis pictured below (Google Images). A greater break down was also founded at (http://www.wikiwealth.com/swot-analysis:ups) Question 1: What are the strengths and weaknesses of scenario...
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...This case gives us an opportunity to reflect on the difficulties of strategic planning and the strengths and weakness of the process used . It also provides a comprehensive introduction to scenario planning. Scenarios are possible views of the world that provide context in wich managers can make a decision In a range of possible worlds, decisions are better informed and the strategy is more likely to succeed In scenarios we can understand the drivers of change and have more control of the situation. 1. What are the strengths and weaknesses of scenario planning? Strenghts Allows one to project the future back into the present to help articulate the strategies necessary to achieve the point in future the scenario is conducive to success or help implement strategies to avoid the scenario in cases where it is not going to be successful - Allow a shared view of the future to be developed - Provide the oportunity for an organization to consider how they want to be positioned in that future - Promotes flexibility and responsiveness - Permit to see the mayor drivers of change: globalisation, economics, technology, - It can be used to do Risk assesment, identify early warning indicators and decide how will we respond. Weakness Simplification of the future: Difficult to predict the future as the number of variables used maybe less |than required for a better plan. Scenario planning is expensive because it requires a huge commitment of time: time consumer and...
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...Scenarios planning is the main technique to study the future, and it have been used since long time by the government planners, corporate managers and military analysts, as important tool to help them in making decision to face the uncertainty. The idea of scenario planning is to establish about possible future where it can minimise surprises and broaden the span of managers. Today the scenarios planning they have become extremely popular. ( Chermack, T. J. 2003). Scenario planning is a group‐based decision making tool, which has its roots in post‐ WWII military planning and the petroleum industry of the 1970s such as Royal Dutch Company. Unlike its cousins, forecasting and prediction, scenario planning does not attempt to project future outcomes based on data from the past. These methods can often lead to “tunnel vision”, due to their preference of one outcome over another. Scenario planning, as described by Peter Schwartz, Chairman of Global Business Network (GBN), “…is a tool for better decision making…Business and governments employ this tool because it helps them to make better strategic decisions.” (Schlegel, G. L., & Murray, P. 2010) The History of Scenario Planning Scenario planning arose out of a need to plan for futures filled with much uncertainty. This uncertainty is particularly magnified in military operations, which is why scenario‐type planning can be traced back to 19‐century military ...
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...Having to learn of the existence of a tool called scenario analysis was itself a blessing for me. Scenario planning affords us the opportunity to make decisions in context of various futures that may play out. It incites us to challenge our assumptions about the future. By basing our plans and decisions in line with the most likely scenario, we can be ensured that our decision are sound even if conditions change According to Ged Davis “the use of scenarios does not imply we will be absolutely right – we only need to be less surprised than those who are not thinking in this light … ideally, to be able to interpret what others see as crises as normal human affairs”. Scenario planning can be applied at the work place, it can also be applied to one’s personal life. I decided to include in this report a demonstration of how scenario planning can be applied at the work place. The following steps illustrate this 1. Problem definition – The problem in this case is how a particular project in the company can be completed within budget at the end of the scenario horizon i.e. end of 2016 2. Data gathering – The next thing to do is to identify trends, factors that may affect the plan. Here I am looking at trends such as the political situation in the company - will there be prolonged strikes at some point? How will this affect the plan? Another point to consider is cost of hire? Will this go up during the course of the year? Or will the schedule be affected due to unavailability...
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...STRATEGIC PLANNING AT UNITED PARCEL SERVICES Reaction Paper Blank Part A Before the 1990s UPS had a small group in charge of formulating project plans (Garvin & Levesque, 2006, p. 3). However, as the company grew in size and the volume of projects, a formal strategic planning group had to be formed. When Eskew became CEO in 2002, the formation of a Management Committee was among the first accomplishments he made. The Committee was tasked to direct the company to its vision for 2007, its first centennial. Eskew's concern, that changes are needed in UPS's strategic planning process, is valid. If the company continues to form only ad hoc groups to focus on achieving a long-term vision, then the sustainable commitment in the group's members cannot be assured. Eskew believes that the only way to move forward is to stop reinventing the wheel. This belief implies that the strategic planning process has to be more systematic than it is, currently. However, the scale of goals to achieve and tasks to accomplish for the Strategic Planning process have become larger as time progressed. UPS will only be capable of transforming itself once more if it has a proportionate level of commitment. A clearer and more straightforward connection between the different components of the strategic process is needed in order to sustain the focus and chart directions. Delegating such task to a Management Committee is a positive step to address the need to link the various components...
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...The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” Article Summary In the context of the global financial crisis and the turbulence that this has brought to the world economy and therefore to organisations, the article “The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” by Gill Ringland published in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social change volume 77 (9) aims to persuade the reader on the need for strategic foresight over the next decade and what role scenarios can play within strategy foresight activities in organisations (Ringland, 2010). The author predicts that organisations in the west will experience a period of great change and that they are mostly ill-prepared to deal with the rate or the enormity of this change. Ringland believes that conventional business planning will need to change and suggests the need to develop a systematic review of organisational practices that will lead to strategic foresight. This will ensure that organisations are in a position to cope and survive changes in their external environment. Ringland begins by pointing out that the current position of the world economy shows that business and government have a significant debt burden that will take years to pay back especially in the west. In an environment of unemployment, reduced consumer spending and debt repayment, wealthy nations will recover slower than developing nations. There is also a shift in international competitiveness due to changes in labour skills and costs as well as technological...
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...POMS Abstract Number: 011-0371 Title: Managing Global Food Supply Chain Risks: A Scenario Planning Perspective A. Deep Business School, Loughborough University Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK Email: a.deep@lboro.ac.uk || Phone: +44.1509 223176 S. Dani Business School, Loughborough University Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK Email: s.dani@lboro.ac.uk || Phone: +44.1509228830 POMS 20th Annual Conference Orlando, Florida U.S.A. May 1 to May 4, 2009 Introduction Food is a fundamental requisite for human existence. An agrarian society shows the simplistic form of existence where agriculture forms the core of the society and is the prime means of support and sustenance. That, however, no longer remains the foundation of most of today’s developed economies where food chains are increasingly becoming complex and multi tiered. The chains start with agriculture and ends ultimately, with household consumption. But the numbers of entities between these ends encompass geographical, economic, political and social extremes. This compounded over uncertainty occurring from natural disasters, climate changes, epidemics and terrorist threats place the food supply chain in a particularly vulnerable position. The recent Chinese milk scare which left thousands of Chinese babies ill after consuming melamine tainted milk powder produced by the Chinese Sanlu Group required urgent action by New Zealand, United States and the European Union to issue product warnings to contain the spread of melamine related...
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...Constructing Vision with Scenario Planning Terry R. Schumacher Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, Engineering Management Dept., Terre Haute, IN 47803 USA Abstract Strategic vision is often included as an important component of leadership. Yet there is relatively little guidance offered in the management literature on how to acquire vision. This paper describes practices that facilitate scenario planning so that it becomes a process for creating shared vision. Most of the work on scenarios addresses the mechanics of scenario construction. Those authors adopt a planning perspective and suggest scenario planning can benefit organizations by stimulating creative thinking about the future or improving forecasts. The Scenarios-to-Strategies (S2S) approach is presented, and scenario planning is considered from a communication perspective. Facilitation practices that enhance traditional scenario-building processes are presented which support the social processes of constructing shared vision. These operate on the layer of participants' cognitive processes, to integrate the different participants' views into a unified, shared framework that heightens understanding and commitment. Example scenario planning projects from two industries, electric utilities and software research, are summarized to demonstrate lessons learned that enhance the facilitation of scenarios as a group process. Introduction Scenarios are a commonly used management technique. There is wide variation in the details...
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...Program Planning and Evaluation Paper HSM 270 Date Your Name As you read this paper you will find that it is going to be about a fictional program scenario that I have chosen to work with. The scenario that I have chosen is scenario three, the PEACE Domestic Violence Agency. Also I will be comparing program planning with program evaluation in human services organizations and how the components are related. Identified will be: specific examples of how program planning and evaluation interrelate in the scenario that was chosen. Lastly, we will be identifying technical and political aspects of program planning and evaluation that may be encountered in the scenario and how the aspects could affect the planning and evaluation process. After reviewing the material provided about program planning and program evaluation in human service organizations it seems as though they do compare to each other. According to the reading it states that “When planned carefully, these two set of activities can be integrated into an organized set of ongoing operations that promote and support each other” (Mika, 1996, p. 6). “Program planning and evaluation are both the process and the product of the political and economic environments” (Yuen, F., Terao, K., 2003). So from what can be understood they both are a process, but they do differ in how they process things in an organization. They way that both of the components are related is once one has his or her...
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...Scenario Evaluation Plan Karen Crawford HSM/270 Dakira Starks-Walker 12/29/2012 As you read this paper you will find that it is going to be about a fictional program scenario that I have chosen to work with. The scenario that I have chosen is scenario three PEACE Domestic Violence Agency. Also it will be comparing program planning with program evaluation in human services organizations and how the components are related. It will be identifying specific examples of how program planning and evaluation interrelate in the scenario that was chosen. Last it will be identifying technical and political aspects of program planning and evaluation that may be encountered in the scenario and how the aspects could affect the planning and evaluation process. After reviewing the material provided about program planning and program evaluation in human service organizations it seems as though they do compare to each other. According to the reading it states that “When planned carefully, these two set of activities can be integrated into an organized set of ongoing operations that promote and support each other” (Mika, 1996, p. 6). “Program planning and evaluation are both the process and the product of the political and economic environments” (Yuen & Terao, 2003). So from what can be understood they both are a process, but they do differ in how they process things in an organization. They way that both of the components are related is once one has his or her plan in order then...
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...2 2.1 The General Environment The General Environment 2.2 Scanning, Monitoring, and Forecasting Changes in the Environment 2.3 Scenario Planning 2.4 PEST Analysis 2.5 SWOT Analysis 2.6 The General and the Competitive Environments Key Work Strategic decision making under conditions of uncertainty Key Work Strategic inflection points and their impact on strategy Tools and Techniques Writing a PEST analysis Tools and Techniques Undertaking scenario planning ➜ Main Reference Schoemaker, P.J.H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25. Learning Objectives After completing this chapter you should be able to: • Define what constitutes the general environment • Evaluate the role of scanning and monitoring in detecting environmental trends • Apply scenario planning to decision making in uncertain environments • Evaluate PEST as a framework for analysing the macro-environment • Explain the use of SWOT analysis • Evaluate the relationship between the general and the competitive environment 37 Introduction In the previous chapter we looked at what strategy is and introduced a number of different perspectives on strategy formulation. We addressed the importance of values in determining why an organization exists, and looked at how an organization’s values, its vision, and its mission guide individuals’ behaviour by signposting what is important to the organization. We explained the importance...
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