...When UPS starting the scenario planning for Horizon 2017, they decided to limit the number of participants from the 1997 scenarios. The purpose of this was to steer clear of similarities between the two scenario-planning sessions. But as an end result, they ended up with scenarios still biased towards the 1997 scenarios. To assist UPS in avoiding this bias would be to have two different scenario-planning sessions. One session would include the participants of the Horizon 2017 session, one with limited 1997 scenario bias. The second session would only include members who did not participate in the 1997 session at all. For this second session the members can get a grip on issues/barriers of the future with a non-bias way of thinking. Their results can be compared and contrasted with the first session, so UPS can see the vision of the company’s future from both sides of the road. Along with the new scenario designing, there were participants who didn’t even truly believe that these meetings were even affecting how UPS does business. UPS is planning for all of these external forces but yet they are not recognizing the internal issue that not everyone is even accepting these meeting as helpful. This can greatly affect the company when external/worldwide forces cause barriers for UPS. In this article, UPS implements SWOT analysis’s but in a more in-depth manner with the scenario planning to improve UPS’s competitiveness. They combined all of the aspects to paint...
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...Having to learn of the existence of a tool called scenario analysis was itself a blessing for me. Scenario planning affords us the opportunity to make decisions in context of various futures that may play out. It incites us to challenge our assumptions about the future. By basing our plans and decisions in line with the most likely scenario, we can be ensured that our decision are sound even if conditions change According to Ged Davis “the use of scenarios does not imply we will be absolutely right – we only need to be less surprised than those who are not thinking in this light … ideally, to be able to interpret what others see as crises as normal human affairs”. Scenario planning can be applied at the work place, it can also be applied to one’s personal life. I decided to include in this report a demonstration of how scenario planning can be applied at the work place. The following steps illustrate this 1. Problem definition – The problem in this case is how a particular project in the company can be completed within budget at the end of the scenario horizon i.e. end of 2016 2. Data gathering – The next thing to do is to identify trends, factors that may affect the plan. Here I am looking at trends such as the political situation in the company - will there be prolonged strikes at some point? How will this affect the plan? Another point to consider is cost of hire? Will this go up during the course of the year? Or will the schedule be affected due to unavailability...
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...Management 2010.07:237-246. Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com by PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY on 07/25/15. For personal use only. STRATEGIC PLANNING OF FUTURE PRODUCTS WITH PRODUCT SCENARIOS VOLKER GRIENITZ∗ and VOLKER BLUME Industrial Engineering, University of Siegen Paul-Bonatz-Str. 9-11 Siegen, 57068, Germany ∗volker.grienitz@uni-siegen.de Received 29 January 2010 Revised 4 March 2010 Accepted 15 April 2010 Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Product scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. The analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst the product structure segments provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios, roadmaps and regular monitoring processes are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation of product and technology strategies. Keywords: Product scenarios; scenarios; evolutionary algorithms; monitoring; scenario planning. 1. Introduction The early recognition and visionary anticipation of technological potentials as well as the combination of technologies...
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...during the six-month planning period? What is the maximum cumulative borrowing balance? (For purposes of this question, disregard any interest payments on short-term bank loans or interest received from investing surplus funds.) Maximum monthly loss is in June: -$60,750. The maximum cumulative borrowing balance is $99,000 in February. What does the monthly cash budget reveal that indicates it should probably be extended beyond the original six months’ horizon? The major cash shortfall in June and the seasonality inherent in the firm’s business indicate that a full year’s cash budget should be developed. The monthly cash budget assumes that cash flows occur simultaneously. This is not realistic, of course. Assume, more realistically, that cash outflows occur early in the month and cash inflows occur later in the month. What do you think would happen to the current cash budget’s predictive powers? (NOTE: This question should be answered without preparing a spreadsheet; it is a ‘thought’ question.) The monthly cash budget would understate the need for funds, since outflows would occur before inflows. If you identified any issues in #3 above, what do you think would resolve them? HINT: There is a specific answer I am expecting, short and sweet, and it is in the case study narrative. Use a daily cash budget to predict cash flows. The need for cash could then be more precisely forecasted. The monthly cash budget is good for planning; the daily cash budget...
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...SCENARIO PLANNING Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military,political, industrial information, and mineral reserves, with plausible alternative social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA) trends which are key driving forces. In business applications, the emphasis on gaming the behavior of opponents was reduced (shifting more toward a game against nature). At Royal Dutch/Shell for example, scenario planning was viewed as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world, prior to formulating specific strategies. Scenario planning may involve aspects of Systems thinking, specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometime surprising futures (due to non-linear feedback loops). The method also allows the inclusion of factors that are difficult to formalize, such as novel insights about the future, deep shifts in values, unprecedented regulations or inventions. Systems thinking used in conjunction with scenario planning leads to plausible scenario story lines because the causal...
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...1. Specify the scope of the planning and its time frame. 2. For the present situation, develop a clear understanding that will serve as the common departure point for each of the scenarios. 3. Identify predetermined elements that are virtually certain to occur and that will be driving forces. 4. Identify the critical uncertainties in the environmental variables. If the scope of the analysis is wide, these may be in the macro-environment, for example, political, economic, social, and technological factors (as in PEST). 5. Identify the more important drivers. One technique for doing so is as follows. Assign each environmental variable two numerical ratings: one rating for its range of variation and another for the strength of its impact on the firm. Multiply these ratings together to arrive at a number that specifies the significance of each environmental factor. For example, consider the extreme case in which a variable had a very large range such that it might be rated a 10 on a scale of 1 to 10 for variation, but in which the variable had very little impact on the firm so that the strength of impact rating would be a 1. Multiplying the two together would yield 10 out of a possible 100, revealing that the variable is not highly critical. After performing this calculation for all of the variables, identify the two having the highest significance. 6. Consider a few possible values for each variable, ranging between extremes while avoiding highly improbable values...
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...------------------------------------------------- Group Project: Emmar Properties in Dubai, UAE (ENGG938) Engineering Economics Dr. Raid Al Amour Summer 2011 By: Ayman ElHalabi ID # 3162758 Fadi Deratani ID # 2462540 Mohammed Al Khanji ID # 3741242 Mohammad Nabil Ibrahim ID # 3517056 Table of Contents Executive summary 3 Case Description 3 Study Questions 4 Solution Assumptions 4 Scenario Analysis 11 Results Discussion 11 Conclusion & Recommendations 12 References 13 Executive summary Emaar Properties PJSC is a United Arab Emirates Based company, it is a Public Joint Stock Company (PJSC) listed on the Dubai Financial Market. Emaar was established in 1997 with an initial paid-up capital of AED 1 billion. It is currently one of the Gulf's largest land and real estate developer. (Wikipedia) With over 60 companies, Emaar's activities include property investment and development, property management services, education, healthcare, retail and hospitality sectors, as well as investing in financial service providers (Wikipedia). Emaar Properties has joint ventures and projects across the region covering Algeria, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, and Tunisia and now heading towards the Americas. Recently Emaar announced plans to expand the retail sector with investments of over US$4 billion to develop approximately 150 malls in the mega emerging markets of the Middle East...
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...The Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 The future business environment: trends, trade-offs and choices © Shell International Limited (SIL), 2005. Permission should be sought from SIL before any part of this publication is reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted by any other means. Agreement will normally be given, provided that the source is acknowledged. The information contained in this publication is, to the best of our knowledge, true and accurate although the forward looking statements herein are by their nature subject to risk factors which may affect the outcome of the matters covered. Opinions from independent experts are presented as their own views in separate inserts with their approval. None of Shell International The companies in which Royal Dutch Petroleum Company and The “Shell” Transport and Trading Company, p.l.c. directly or indirectly own investments are separate and distinct entities. The expressions “Royal Dutch/Shell Group” and “Group” are used to refer to the companies of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group as a whole. The words “Shell”, “we”, “us” and “our” are used in some places to refer to the Group and in others to an individual Shell company or companies where no particular purpose is served by identifying the specific company or companies. Limited, its affiliates and their respective officers, employees and agents represents the accuracy or completeness of the information set forth herein and none of the foregoing shall be liable for...
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...gyStrategic management is an ongoing process that evaluates and controls the business and the industries in which the company is involved; assesses its competitors and sets goals and strategies to meet all existing and potential competitors; and then reassesses each strategy annually or quarterly [i.e. regularly] to determine how it has been implemented and whether it has succeeded or needs replacement by a new strategy to meet changed circumstances, new technology, new competitors, a new economic environment., or a new social, financial, or political environment. ------------------------------------------------- Strategic Management – An Ongoing Process by GE Consult on Wednesday, December 16, 2009 at 8:59am December 16, 2009 by Fred Victor The term “globalization” is not new, what is more, it is more rapid and pervasive nowadays. Significant reductions in barriers to international commerce since the mid-1970s have resulted in markets and industries becoming increasingly integrated across nations. In fact, distance is becoming a shrinking barrier. Markets are globalizing rapidly, due to technological advancement particularly in computer technology, as are the firms that competing. As a result, strategic management will be more significant as the pace of business nowadays. Managing change has become the "silver bullet" in seeking the final component of successfully managing strategy, process, culture and people in most modern organizations. Furthermore, staying...
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...Preparing Business Scenario Analyses The following general guidelines may be used in preparing for an oral or written business scenario analysis and presentation. There may be several feasible courses of action regarding the solution to any case. It is more important to concern yourself with the process of problem definition and isolation, analysis, and evaluation of alternatives, and the choice of one or more recommendations, rather than trying to find a single answer. Very often, the right answer is the one that you can propose, explain, defend, and make work. • The Process of Analyzing a Case 1. Read and study the scenario thoroughly and efficiently. Read the scenario once for familiarity, noting issues that come to the forefront. Read the scenario again. Determine all the facts, making notes about symptoms of problems, root problems, unresolved issues, and roles of key players. Watch for issues beneath the surface. 2. Isolate the problem(s). Get a feel for the overall environment by putting yourself in the position of one of the key players. Seek out the pertinent issues and problems. 3. Analyze and evaluate alternatives. a. Once the problems and issues are isolated, work at gaining a better understanding of causes. In what area of the unit do the problems exist? Why? What caused them? Examine and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the unit’s processes (e.g., planning, communication), human behaviors, and/or exhibits (e.g., financial statements,...
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...Rubric for Case Study Trait | Does not achieve standard(Incorrect and/or incomplete)(Fail) 0-49 | Achieves Standard(Competent/Meets minimum standard)(Pass) 50-59 | Above Standard(Competent/Above standard)(Credit) 60-69 | Exceed Expectation(Accomplished/Consistent/Reflective)(Distinction) 70-79 | Excellent(Accomplished/Thorough/Reflective)(High Distinction) 80-100 | Context, Purpose and Objective | The report does not clearly address the objective(s). Did not demonstrate adequate consideration of context, audience, and purpose and a clear focus on the assigned task(s) (e.g., the task does not align with audience, purpose, and context. | The purpose and objective of the report is made relatively clear, and the report addresses some of the objective(s).Demonstrates some consideration of context, audience, and purpose and attempts to focus on the assigned task(s) (e.g., the task aligns with audience, purpose, and context. | The purpose and objective of the report is made clear, and the report addresses the most of objective(s).Demonstrates adequate consideration of context, audience, and purpose and a clear focus on the assigned task(s) (e.g., the task aligns with audience, purpose, and context. | The purpose and objective of the report is made clear, and the report addresses the objective(s) in a focused and logical manner.Demonstrates a good understanding of context, audience, and purpose and fully aligns with the assigned task(s) (e.g., the task aligns with audience, purpose...
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...Constructing Vision with Scenario Planning Terry R. Schumacher Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, Engineering Management Dept., Terre Haute, IN 47803 USA Abstract Strategic vision is often included as an important component of leadership. Yet there is relatively little guidance offered in the management literature on how to acquire vision. This paper describes practices that facilitate scenario planning so that it becomes a process for creating shared vision. Most of the work on scenarios addresses the mechanics of scenario construction. Those authors adopt a planning perspective and suggest scenario planning can benefit organizations by stimulating creative thinking about the future or improving forecasts. The Scenarios-to-Strategies (S2S) approach is presented, and scenario planning is considered from a communication perspective. Facilitation practices that enhance traditional scenario-building processes are presented which support the social processes of constructing shared vision. These operate on the layer of participants' cognitive processes, to integrate the different participants' views into a unified, shared framework that heightens understanding and commitment. Example scenario planning projects from two industries, electric utilities and software research, are summarized to demonstrate lessons learned that enhance the facilitation of scenarios as a group process. Introduction Scenarios are a commonly used management technique. There is wide variation in the details...
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...package delivery company and a leading global provider of specialized transportation and logistics services. As each and every day passes, UPS maintains the flow of goods, funds, and information in more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. To briefly discuss how UPS understands where they are positioned in the marketplace, from a strategic standpoint, a SWOT analysis pictured below (Google Images). A greater break down was also founded at (http://www.wikiwealth.com/swot-analysis:ups) Question 1: What are the strengths and weaknesses of scenario planning? Answer to Question 1: To start off, we need to understand what Scenario Planning actually is. Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. Scenario planning is...
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...What is Jack’s role? a. Nik’s role is to provide assistance to the companies Executive Alex, Director of Goofie Planning. The company’s role is to develop and manage organizational structure and processes. That includes helping the government with increasing their social needs. The structure and processes includes marketing, finance, purchasing, technology, human resources, physical resource, transportation, strategic planning, leadership, etc. Nik’s immediate role is draft the company’s plan as it focuses on organizational processes, human resources, and ethics. 2. What is Lokita’s role? Cross Salsa provides medical assistance to a vast majority of patients in the Fort Kingfish area. The medical billing department, allows the Cross to process patient’s billing within the organization. Melanie Popins, Director of Central Drilling, oversees the financial position of patient’s medical expenses to the hospital through therapy and procedures. Jacqueline’s immediate role is to provide medical billing assistance by processing hospital claims through Medicare and other insurance companies. This helps in minimizing account receivables. Part II – Assignment Outline 1. Introduction a. Long Island Ice Tea– When one thinks of the South Pacific, they would think of paradise; white beaches, gentle surfs, swaying palm trees, and tropical breeze (Business Scenario, 2011). i. Location – 1. Lava Island is locate in South Pacific, Hawaii ii. Ethnic mix – 1. Indigenous South...
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...Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight (Liebl 2010) Table of contents 1. Summary of the article 3 2. Analysis of the strength and weakness of the argument 5 2.1 Strengths 5 2.2 Weakness 6 3. Implications for the top management 7 4. Conclusion 8 Appendix A 10 Appendix B 11 1. Summary of the article “In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things” (Musashi 2009). * This article focuses on trend diagnosis for strategic foresight in its entirety. The author scrutinizes that although trend is an imperative concept in the strategic issue management, the interpretation of trend in strategic foresight is ambiguous. This paper conceptualizes, from a strategic point of view, trend as an innovation (socio-cultural) and elaborate the implications with respect to strategic issue diagnosis. (Liebl 2010) * * * * * The figure above (Liebl 2010) depicts an elaborate framework for conceptualizing trends. The strategic trend diagnosis has to deal with two different aspects of innovation: invention and diffusion. The invention aspect of a trend is identifying “The New” results from a transgression of contextual boundaries whereas the diffusion is a process of normalization (Normality and Abnormality) – i.e., a new socio-cultural practice becomes a social convention and...
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