...SCENARIO PLANNING Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military,political, industrial information, and mineral reserves, with plausible alternative social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA) trends which are key driving forces. In business applications, the emphasis on gaming the behavior of opponents was reduced (shifting more toward a game against nature). At Royal Dutch/Shell for example, scenario planning was viewed as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world, prior to formulating specific strategies. Scenario planning may involve aspects of Systems thinking, specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometime surprising futures (due to non-linear feedback loops). The method also allows the inclusion of factors that are difficult to formalize, such as novel insights about the future, deep shifts in values, unprecedented regulations or inventions. Systems thinking used in conjunction with scenario planning leads to plausible scenario story lines because the causal...
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...organization plays a vital role in business functions. Using poor communication or the wrong type of communication channel can have major negative impacts. Good communication skills and the knowledge to identify when to use a particular communication channel is vital in sending and receiving business information. The communication channel scenarios assigned demonstrate the challenges that occur when there is error in communication. The first scenario highlights the risks of not choosing the right communication channel when dealing with important business matters. The scenario also shows what can occur when important conversations take place via e-mail rather than one on one, and how the evidence of the conversations can cause future damage. The second scenario shows how the internet has changed communication and created new challenges for organizations. Both scenarios demonstrate that it is essential to understand the different channels of communication. COMMUNICATION CHANNEL SCENERIOS 3 Communication Channel Scenario 1 In the case incident between Diana Abdala and William Korman, I side with Mr. Korman. I feel that Ms. Abdala handled the situation in a very unprofessional manner. It is my understanding that both parties initially used face to face communication as a channel for information exchange during the interview process, offer, and acceptance....
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...Having to learn of the existence of a tool called scenario analysis was itself a blessing for me. Scenario planning affords us the opportunity to make decisions in context of various futures that may play out. It incites us to challenge our assumptions about the future. By basing our plans and decisions in line with the most likely scenario, we can be ensured that our decision are sound even if conditions change According to Ged Davis “the use of scenarios does not imply we will be absolutely right – we only need to be less surprised than those who are not thinking in this light … ideally, to be able to interpret what others see as crises as normal human affairs”. Scenario planning can be applied at the work place, it can also be applied to one’s personal life. I decided to include in this report a demonstration of how scenario planning can be applied at the work place. The following steps illustrate this 1. Problem definition – The problem in this case is how a particular project in the company can be completed within budget at the end of the scenario horizon i.e. end of 2016 2. Data gathering – The next thing to do is to identify trends, factors that may affect the plan. Here I am looking at trends such as the political situation in the company - will there be prolonged strikes at some point? How will this affect the plan? Another point to consider is cost of hire? Will this go up during the course of the year? Or will the schedule be affected due to unavailability...
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...When UPS starting the scenario planning for Horizon 2017, they decided to limit the number of participants from the 1997 scenarios. The purpose of this was to steer clear of similarities between the two scenario-planning sessions. But as an end result, they ended up with scenarios still biased towards the 1997 scenarios. To assist UPS in avoiding this bias would be to have two different scenario-planning sessions. One session would include the participants of the Horizon 2017 session, one with limited 1997 scenario bias. The second session would only include members who did not participate in the 1997 session at all. For this second session the members can get a grip on issues/barriers of the future with a non-bias way of thinking. Their results can be compared and contrasted with the first session, so UPS can see the vision of the company’s future from both sides of the road. Along with the new scenario designing, there were participants who didn’t even truly believe that these meetings were even affecting how UPS does business. UPS is planning for all of these external forces but yet they are not recognizing the internal issue that not everyone is even accepting these meeting as helpful. This can greatly affect the company when external/worldwide forces cause barriers for UPS. In this article, UPS implements SWOT analysis’s but in a more in-depth manner with the scenario planning to improve UPS’s competitiveness. They combined all of the aspects to paint...
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...* What is scenario planning? Under what conditions is it useful? How important do you think scenario planning is as a context for international marketing planning? Scenario planning is defined as strategic planning method that organization use to make flexible long term plans based on generating a number of “what if” situations and then options on how they might respond to those situations( Keeley, 2011). In other word scenario planning a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting the business. It is strategy tool used to discover potential future environments in order to understand how today’s strategic decisions will have an impact on an organizations in times to come. The key elements in scenario planning are “creative thinking, imagination, an informal methodology and use of qualitative, subjective information” scenario planning does not predict the future; rather it considers the complete scope of likely forces that might have impact on an organization. These may be intellectual, natural, social, political, economic, cultural or technological. Scenario planning is an important strategic tool for the business. Marketers can make choices through the scenario planning. The options can be screened by matching them to possible scenarios. Scenario planning provides tools for an organization to respond critical changes. It provides methods for understanding...
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...Communication Channel Scenarios Senario 1 In scenario one, the vice president of operations charges the manager with rapidly putting together a strategy with his team. The compressed time line for the development of a strategy requires a communication rich channel to enable the team to work quickly with maximum feedback to the effort in near real time. The team must include as many ideas as possible first before breaking off to research the data necessary to build a strong supporting argument for their chosen business case. What communication channel will you use? The best communication channel that will meet the requirements of this situation is a face to face team meeting. The meeting can take place in a conference room or via a video conference, but will be face to face. Using video conference solutions is similar in most regards to a live meeting of the whole team in the same room. Our modern workplace, with dispersed workforce, does not always allow for a work group to be located in the same room. Why is this channel the best choice in this situation? The face to face communication channel is the best choice, because it allows all team members to interact in real time. The team can share ideas as they develop during the discussion and present those real time to the rest of the team members. In this scenario, the team has very little time to develop ideas, and then follow up those ideas with the necessary research to determine which of the team ideas have sound...
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...Business Scenario MGT 350 Business Scenario Business Scenario Kava is a small island country in the South Pacific. Kava has been plagued with unfortunate circumstances that have brought about one disaster after another. This is a country that is in dire need of some help and aid in the situation of getting the country cleaned up and on its way to recovery. The Island of Kava must over come many obstacles in order to improve the contiditon of there people. Certain events that have happen were tsunami’s, floods, earthquakes . People also faced with health problems such as HIV and Aids.Nik feels the need to reach out . The government also feels a need to step in so with in a joint effort in providing first aid and rebuilding the country. They have provided food and shelter with Niks help. Nik has also helped with the efforts in providing fresh water and cleaning the air as well. Nik’s company was also expanding world wide with better customer serivce.With this the company wishes to branch off. But, even though Nik is accomplishing his goals conducting business in the far a country in the South Pacific it is a challenge within itself. Nik understands that people need water in order to survive life. In Kava more than half of people are in need of water and who younger then 15 years of age. Without this type of preparation any unexpected event can severely disrupt the operation, continuity, and effectiveness of your business. Disabling events can come in all shapes and varieties...
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...07:237-246. Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com by PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY on 07/25/15. For personal use only. STRATEGIC PLANNING OF FUTURE PRODUCTS WITH PRODUCT SCENARIOS VOLKER GRIENITZ∗ and VOLKER BLUME Industrial Engineering, University of Siegen Paul-Bonatz-Str. 9-11 Siegen, 57068, Germany ∗volker.grienitz@uni-siegen.de Received 29 January 2010 Revised 4 March 2010 Accepted 15 April 2010 Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Product scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. The analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst the product structure segments provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios, roadmaps and regular monitoring processes are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation of product and technology strategies. Keywords: Product scenarios; scenarios; evolutionary algorithms; monitoring; scenario planning. 1. Introduction The early recognition and visionary anticipation of technological potentials as well as the combination of technologies plays a vital role...
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...The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” Article Summary In the context of the global financial crisis and the turbulence that this has brought to the world economy and therefore to organisations, the article “The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” by Gill Ringland published in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social change volume 77 (9) aims to persuade the reader on the need for strategic foresight over the next decade and what role scenarios can play within strategy foresight activities in organisations (Ringland, 2010). The author predicts that organisations in the west will experience a period of great change and that they are mostly ill-prepared to deal with the rate or the enormity of this change. Ringland believes that conventional business planning will need to change and suggests the need to develop a systematic review of organisational practices that will lead to strategic foresight. This will ensure that organisations are in a position to cope and survive changes in their external environment. Ringland begins by pointing out that the current position of the world economy shows that business and government have a significant debt burden that will take years to pay back especially in the west. In an environment of unemployment, reduced consumer spending and debt repayment, wealthy nations will recover slower than developing nations. There is also a shift in international competitiveness due to changes in labour skills and costs as well as technological...
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...Preparing Business Scenario Analyses The following general guidelines may be used in preparing for an oral or written business scenario analysis and presentation. There may be several feasible courses of action regarding the solution to any case. It is more important to concern yourself with the process of problem definition and isolation, analysis, and evaluation of alternatives, and the choice of one or more recommendations, rather than trying to find a single answer. Very often, the right answer is the one that you can propose, explain, defend, and make work. • The Process of Analyzing a Case 1. Read and study the scenario thoroughly and efficiently. Read the scenario once for familiarity, noting issues that come to the forefront. Read the scenario again. Determine all the facts, making notes about symptoms of problems, root problems, unresolved issues, and roles of key players. Watch for issues beneath the surface. 2. Isolate the problem(s). Get a feel for the overall environment by putting yourself in the position of one of the key players. Seek out the pertinent issues and problems. 3. Analyze and evaluate alternatives. a. Once the problems and issues are isolated, work at gaining a better understanding of causes. In what area of the unit do the problems exist? Why? What caused them? Examine and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the unit’s processes (e.g., planning, communication), human behaviors, and/or exhibits (e.g., financial statements,...
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...BEC970/TEAC4980 Assessment and Evaluation: Alignment Assignment Course Description: This course is designed to help newly hired front-line banking representatives learn the basics of client interaction, including transactional processing, handling client inquiries and concerns, and leveraging trigger events as well as open-ended questions to identify advice opportunities. The learning is delivered in a blended online/in-classroom/in-branch environment with hands-on practice opportunities gained through virtual modules, role-playing with colleagues, and direct client interactions in branch. The course is comprised of seven learning modules/units delivered over a nine week period, with each module delivered over a 1-week period, providing a 2-week intensive hands-on practice opportunity near the end of the program. The flow of the course includes these main topics: 1. Discovery: Learning more about you and understanding your strengths 2. Orientation: The Tools and Resources you need to succeed and where to find them 3. Client Experience: An overview of what a perfect interaction looks like 4. Transaction Processing: Understanding the mechanics of day-to-day transactions 5. Product Knowledge: The nitty-gritty of the products we offer 6. Giving Advice: Discovering needs and providing client-centric advice 7. Client Experience: Juggling it all together ...
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...STRATEGIC PLANNING AT UNITED PARCEL SERVICES Reaction Paper Blank Part A Before the 1990s UPS had a small group in charge of formulating project plans (Garvin & Levesque, 2006, p. 3). However, as the company grew in size and the volume of projects, a formal strategic planning group had to be formed. When Eskew became CEO in 2002, the formation of a Management Committee was among the first accomplishments he made. The Committee was tasked to direct the company to its vision for 2007, its first centennial. Eskew's concern, that changes are needed in UPS's strategic planning process, is valid. If the company continues to form only ad hoc groups to focus on achieving a long-term vision, then the sustainable commitment in the group's members cannot be assured. Eskew believes that the only way to move forward is to stop reinventing the wheel. This belief implies that the strategic planning process has to be more systematic than it is, currently. However, the scale of goals to achieve and tasks to accomplish for the Strategic Planning process have become larger as time progressed. UPS will only be capable of transforming itself once more if it has a proportionate level of commitment. A clearer and more straightforward connection between the different components of the strategic process is needed in order to sustain the focus and chart directions. Delegating such task to a Management Committee is a positive step to address the need to link the various components...
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...Perrier, Michael Butler, Frank Petty, Nicholas Deluca COM/310 Sept. 2, 2013 Love Cross Action Plan 09.03.13 All members of the team submit two recommendations from Week 4 / Week 5 for theory development that is most conducive for script development. 09.06.13 Two theories will be chosen from discussion in the class thread either unanimously or by the Team Leader (Dalene). 09.09.13 Scenarios need to be submitted via the class thread to be considered for the script. Need to include an environment, proposed characters, resolution and how it meets the theory description to be considered. Scenarios will be chosen unanimously or by the Team Leader (Dalene). 09.13.13 Due from Team Members Team Member 1 (Nicholas) - Appendix for Script 1 - Write a brief preview of how you will be acting out the scenario to represent the selected theory. Team Member 2 (Michael) - Appendix for Script 1 - Write a description of the selected theory with two reference. Team Member 3 (Arline) - Appendix for Script 2 - Write a brief preview of how you will be acting out the scenario to represent the selected theory. Team Member 4 (Frank) - Appendix for Script 2 - Write a description of the selected theory with two reference 09.16.13 Team Leader will submit the appendices 09.19.13 Team Member 1 (Nicholas) - Rough Draft script 1 Team Member 2 (Michael) - Rough Draft script 2 09.21.13 Team Member 3 (Arline) - Final Draft script 1 Team Member 4 (Frank) - Final Draft script...
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...Collapse Informatics: Response Paper • Collapse Informatics: Augmenting the Sustainability & ICT4D Discourse in HCI (Tomlinson et al., 2012) • Looking Past Yesterday’s Tomorrow: Using Future Studies Methods to Extend the Research Horizon (Mankoff et al., 2013) Both papers are dealing with future scenarios and stressing the likelyhood of a collapse if humanity proceeds its current way of living. The papers provide starting points to investigate in the preparation for humanity if such an event will come true. While the paper by Tomlinson et al. (2012) is introducing a completely new notion for studying, designing and devloping sociotechnical systems in the abundant present for use in a future of scarcity, the second paper by Mankoff et al. (2013) presents methods that can support the analysis of long-‐ term trends, support the identification of new...
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...meeting opportunity." Have you ever heard people talk about the things they would do if they won the lottery, and yet a large percentage of these people never go out and buy a ticket. These people have exactly a zero chance of winning, while the ones who went out and bought a ticket have a chance, albeit slim, at becoming lucky. This is the scenario that came to mind when I first read the quote “Luck is a matter of preparation meeting opportunity”. However, the more I thought about the quote, the more I realized how easily this could be applied to many real life situations. The author of this quote is trying to tell the readers that preparing yourself for opportunity is the key to being lucky, or successful. In order to prepare yourself for success, there are certain steps that must take place. First, you have to believe in yourself. You must believe that you can pick the lucky numbers, or you must believe that you are capable of competing in, let’s say a marathon. Second, you have to set goals for yourself. In the case of the lottery it’s pretty easy; Goal #1, buy ticket. Goal #2, wait. In the marathon scenario, much like most other scenarios, it’s a little more complicated. You must train both physically and mentally, and make many sacrifices along the way. Finally, you must be optimistic about the result you achieve. In the case of the lottery player, they probably didn’t win. But at least they can try again in a few days, right? The marathon runner may not have won the race...
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