...Initial operations strategy Prior to the commencement of the simulation, we examined the 50 days of historical data to glean as much information as we could about the operations. We performed some analysis in Excel and created a dashboard to illustrate various data. Specifically, we regressed the prior 50 days of jobs accepted to forecast demand over the next 2 - 3 months within a 95% confidence interval. The yellow and grey lines represent the maximum and minimum variability, respectively, based on two standard deviations (95%). Exhibit 1: Forecasted and actual demand by Day 50 and Day 270 Our two primary goals at the beginning of the simulation were as follows: 1) Eliminate bottlenecks and increase capacity in order to meet forecasted demand 2) Decrease lead time to 0.25 days in order to satisfy Contract 2 and maximize revenue In order to achieve these goals, we would need to know the capacity and throughput time of the entire system. We used the time required by each machine to process a lot to calculate capacity per station and then capacity of the entire production line (380 kits/day or 6 orders/day). In Exhibit 2 we can observe that the capacity of the production line is given by the station that produces the least number of units per day. Exhibit 2: Capacity of the production line The Decisions We decided to work with the maximum variability of demand because there was a penalty for late jobs and because there was no revenue for orders that took more than “x”...
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...materials such as Ultra/Advanced High Strength Steels (U/AHSS), aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys and boron steels in automotive industry is increasing to reduce vehicle weight and increase crash performance. The use of these relatively new materials requires advanced and reliable techniques to a) obtain data on material properties and flow stress, b) predicting springback and fracture in bending and flanging, c) selecting lubricants and die materials/coatings for stamping and forging and d) designing tools for blanking and shearing. In addition, designing the process and tooling for a) hot stamping of boron steels, b) warm forming of Al and Mg alloys, and c) optimizing the use of servo-drive presses require advanced Finite Element based simulation methods. CPF is conducting R&D in most of these topics and also in many hot and cold forging related topics. This paper gives an overview of this research and discusses how the research results are applied in cooperation with industry. Keywords: Metal Forming, Sheet metal, Forging, FEM 1 INTRODUCTION The Center for Precision Forming (CPF) has been established with funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and a number of companies (www.cpforming.org). CPF is an outgrowth of the Engineering Research Center for Net Shape Manufacturing (ERC/NSM – www.ercnsm.org) and conducts research in sheet metal forming while ERC/NSM focuses on cold and hot forging related R&D projects. Both Centers work closely with industry under contract....
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...INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this paper is to bring out the use of Simulation by Managers of various organizations. Under discussion will be: Definition of simulation. Model construction. When and why it becomes handy to use simulation. Steps used in simulation technique. Random selection in simulation. Advantages / benefits derived from use of simulation technique. Disadvantages /Challenges associated with simulation technique. Role of computer in simulation. Conclusion / comments. Definition of simulation: Simulation can be defined as a quantitative technique which describes a process by developing a model of that process and then conduct a series of organized trial and error experiments to predict the behavior of the process through time often with the aid of a computer. It is a method that is used to solve a problem in many areas of management, for example inventory management, queuing problems, profit analysis and project management among others. Model construction: A successful simulation model has to be carefully designed in order to achieve the intended predictive purpose. Therefore important factors have to be considered such as; i. It must be objective oriented. It must be constructed for a purpose and be able to achieve that purpose. ii. Critical variables and relationships. These must be identified and incorporated in model. However it is not essential or indeed desirable to include all variables in the model. iii. Simplicity...
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...………………………………….…….…………….. 4 3. System Requirements ….……………………………………………….. 4 4. Theory ………………………………………………………………….. 5 5. Multisim Simulation Results …………………………..………………………. 5 6. Experimental Procedure ………………………………………………… 6 7. Analysis of Results ..……………..…………………………………….. 6 8. Troubleshooting ….……..…………………………………………….. 6 9. Conclusion ..……………………………..…………………………….. 6 List of Figures 1. Resistor Circuit Schematic .………………………………….. 5 2. Multisim Simulation Circuit ………………………………………….. 6 3. Simulation circuit ..…. ………………………………………….. 7 List of Tables 1. Theoretical Analysis Results ………………………………………….. 5 2. Simulation Results …………………………………………………….. 6 3. Experimental Results …….…………………………………………….. 7 4. Results Comparison …………………………………………………… 8 Project Objectives When putting resistors in series, we can use this experiment to prove Kirchoff’s Voltage Law and Ohm’s Law by comparing our theoretical values to the Experimental values. System Requirements Equipment and Material Equipment: Macbook Air with the Citrix receiver software DC Power Supply DMM (Digital Multimeter) Software: Multisim Version 13 Parts: 3 – 1.0 kΩ Resistor 1 – 2.2 kΩ Resistor 1 – 6.8 kΩ Resistor Breadboard and hookup wires Theory The circuit to be analyzed is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1 Resistor Inductor Circuit Schematic Table 1 Resistor Inductor Theoretical Analysis Multisimulation...
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...Applied mathematics in Engineering, Management and Technology 2 (2) 2014:466-475 www.amiemt-journal.com Using a combined method of hierarchical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in order to identify and prioritize the target market selection criteria (Case study: Food distribution companies of Mashhad-Iran) Amir kariznoee Ph.D. student of Industrial Management,University of Mazandaran ,Iran (Corresponding Author's E-mail: Amir.kariznoee@yahoo.com) Monireh Bijandi Graduate of Accounting in Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Iran Mahdi Ghayur Maddah Student of Public Management in Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Iran Vajihe Mogharabi M.A. Student of Information Technology Management, Shahid beheshti University,Tehran,Iran Abstract The aim of this study is to identify and prioritize the key factors in selecting a target market in the food industry. In order to determine the components and subcomponents of this study, we have used previous researches in this area. In order to match these factors with the food industry situation and create a hierarchical structure, we have obtained the opinions of 323 experts about affecting factors on choosing a market in this industry with the use of questionnaire. Then, using a combination of hierarchal analysis process and Monte Carlo simulation and cooperation with 10 senior executives of distribution companies, the weight of each component and sub-component was determined. In general, four components and ten sub-components were...
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...Modeling Order Book Fluctuation by Monte Carlo Technique CONTENTS Page no. 1) Certificate 2 2) Acknowledgement 3 3) Abstract 5 4) Introduction 6 5) Simulation code 8 ➢ Order Book 8 ➢ Diffusion 9 ➢ Price and Annihilation 11 ➢ One Trade return 14 ➢ Waiting time between consecutive trades 16 ➢ Conditional return 19 ➢ Hurst curve 20 6) Results and Discussion 22 7) Summary 28 8) Future Prospects 29 9) References ...
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...EXPERIMENTAL SETUP AND RESULTS This chapter provides an overview of network simulation and different VANET simulators that can be used to simulate different VANET algorithms to analyze the performance of the network without the need of real systems. This not only saves cost but also provides opportunity to test new protocols and algorithms in a controlled environment which otherwise would have not been possible. 6.I INTRODUCTION A network simulator is a software program that models the working of a computer network and its communications. It can be a software or hardware that helps to predict the behavior of a network, without need of any actual network. It imitates the working of a network such that the performance of the network can be analyzed without...
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...This report provides an in-depth analysis of the two Everest Simulations conducted by Group 10 of MGMT1001 Thursday Tutorial. This task required students to form teams consisting of five to six members whose goals were to summit Mount Everest. While it provided us with a rich experience in team dynamics and collaboration, it also enabled us to explore key managerial concepts taught in the course, consisting of: • Communication • Groups and Teams • Leadership In this report, we examine the effectiveness of Face to Face Communication (FTFC) versus Computer Mediated Communication (CMC), and the problems encountered through the utilisation of the virtual medium including efficiency of the feedback system, loss of personal focus and other emergent issues. It includes personal reflections on attitudes and perceptions, as well as group performance and strategies adopted in the second Simulation in order to create a more positive team experience. Theories which relate to interpersonal communication have also been integrated in the report to illustrate its relation to certain situations encountered during the Simulation. Additionally, we provide a multifaceted analysis on the notion of team cohesiveness and how it attributes to better performance outcomes. An overview on the different intragroup conflicts encountered in the Simulation has been included, examining the positive and negative impact that conflict had on team experience and performance, and how mutual agreements were reached...
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...is a computer necessary in conducting a realworld simulation? Answer It is important because there are many different types of outcomes that comes in with simulation. Computers are used in daily life activities and it is necessary. 14-11 What is operational gaming? What is systems simulation? Give examples of how each may be applied. Answer Operational gaming is the use of simulation in competitive situations such as military games and business or management. System simulation ls that deal with the dynamics of large organizational or governmental systems. Validation The process of comparing a model to the real system that it represents to make sure that it is accurate. 14-17 (a) Resimulate the number of stockouts incurred over a 20-week period (assuming Higgins maintains a constant supply of 8 heaters). (b) Conduct this 20-week simulation two more times and compare your answers with those in part (a). Did they change significantly? Why or why not? (c) What is the new expected number of sales per week? Answer A. The number of stockouts incurred over a 20 week period is HOT WATER NUMBER OF HEATER SALES WEEKS THIS PER WEEK NUMBER WAS SOLD 3 2 4 9 5 10 6 15 7 25 8 12 9 12 10 10 B, Two more times would give us the value of a multiplied by 2. c. 25 14-18 A. 15 days of barge uploadings and average number of barges delayed B, They both are probabilistic simulations. Chapter 5 HW 5-14 Using MAD, determine whether...
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...A SYSTEM SIMULATION STUDY ON THE THREE FAST MOVING PRODUCTS (MARLBORO, C2, VIVA) OF THE COLLEGE VARIETY SHOPPE USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION IN INVENTORY MANAGEMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study shows how the selected three fast moving products (Marlboro cigarettes, C2, Viva mineral water) move from the current Inventory Management technique of the College Variety Shoppe from its distributors to its warehouse storage to the end user or customer. An excel program and a simulation model was made to observed its current performance. After the observation, the group performs an experimentation that will improve the current technique of the College Variety Shoppe. After simulating the experimentation, the group then give conclusions and recommendations on how to improve the College Variety Shoppe’s current Inventory Management. TABLE OF CONTENTS Title Page ........................................................ 1 Executive Summary ........................................................ 2 Table of Contents ........................................................ 3 Introduction ........................................................ 4 Methodology ........................................................ 6 Model Development ........................................................ 7 Model Validation ........................................................ 11 Experimentation, Results .......
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...Monte Carlo Statistical Analysis Name Course Instructor Date The Monte Carlo method is a mathematical method used for problem solving through the generation of random numbers and then observing a fraction of these numbers and the properties they obey. It is useful in obtaining numerical solutions to problems that are too complicated for analytical solutions. It is a form of probability used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in various areas such as financial and cost forecasting. It involves computation of the likelihood of given events occurring or not occurring, without taking into account the interaction of the elements involved in influencing the occurrence. The mathematical method was invented by Stanislaw Ulam in 1946 and named by Nicholas Metropolis after a classy gambling resort in Monaco, where a relative of Ulam frequently gambled [ (Fishman, 1996) ]. Concepts of the Monte Carlo method Uncertainty Being a forecasting model, there are assumptions that need to be made due to the uncertainty of various factors. One therefore needs to be able to make estimations of the expected results as they cannot predict with certainty what the end value will be. Important factors such as historical data and past experiences in the field can be helpful in making an accurate estimate. Estimation In some cases, estimation may be possible but in others it is not. In situations where estimation is possible, it is wise to use a wide range of possible values instead...
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...NS2 soft solution: Ns2 soft solution is a software development based company which contain innovative and expertise to facilitate complex projects in an efficient way. We offer various broad solution projects for researchers and students to increase demands among other centers and customer centric solution with high standard. We offer various projects under NS2 simulation based on IEEE papers and non IEEE papers. We deploy various NS2 projects as a virtual one in real time application. Ns2 soft solution is a highly experienced team member of developer professionals providing a wide range of complex projects and network protocol simulation. Our motto: • Advance technology enhancement. • Make everything possible. • Provide service quality for every commitment. Basic aims of Ns2 soft solution are: • Providing guidance for students to select the efficient project based on student interest which ensures a success in their projects. • We train and make students to learn all the concepts from basic to advance such that students can get a clear idea about the project what they do. • Based on...
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...The Mikes Bikes simulation is an exciting and interesting way to gain critical insights into the development of a business. By operating a simulated bicycle manufacturing corporation over a period of ten years was an opportunity to gain insights on a real entrepreneurial experience. It allowed us to expand on the ideas taught in class such as creating a business strategy and using tools like SWOT and Porter’s five forces. We had many assumptions initially regarding the procedures but gradually we could learn the basics by facing enough challenges and by trial and error method. These skills cannot be learned by the usual form of lecturing. Considering our team, this was our first comprehensive exposure to real business environment. Each...
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...Simulation of Sports Facilities at University of Cincinnati Campus Recreation Center By: Nikhil Shaganti MID: M07428499 MS- Business Analytics Carl.H. Lindner College of Business, University of Cincinnati Page | 1 Table of Contents Acknowledgments………………………………………………………………….3 List of Figures……………………………………………………………...............4 Objectives of the study………………………………………………......................5 About UC Campus Recreation Center…………………………………….............. 5 Scope of Simulation……………………………………………………….............. 6 Data Collection Fitting Distributions for Wait times…………………………………………8 Challenges Faced…………………………………………………………….9 Assumptions………………………………………………………………..10 Fitness Center Model…………………………………………………………….....9 Basic Model………………………………………………………………….9 Updated Model- More Realistic……………………………………………10 Swimming Pool Model……………………………………………………………13 Output Analysis…………………………………………………………………...14 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………...18 References………………………………………………………………………...19 Page | 2 Acknowledgements With sincere gratitude, I would like to express my special thank you to Professor Dr. W. David Kelton. This project would have never been completed without his direction, assistance, and encouragement. I would also like to thank my parents, for their endless support during each and every one of my life’s endeavors. Page | 3 List of Figures Figure 1. Triangular distribution observed in Input Analyzer for Fitness Center Wait times...…………………………………………...
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...Introduction This chapter describes our work in evolution of buildable designs using miniature plastic bricks as modular components. Lego 1 bricks are well known for their flexibility when it comes to creating low cost, handy designs of vehicles and structures. Their simple modular concept make toy bricks a good ground for doing evolution of computer simulated structures which can be built and deployed. Instead of incorporating an expert system of engineering knowledge into the program, which would result in more familiar structures, we combined an evolutionary algorithm with a model of the physical reality and a purely utilitarian fitness function, providing measures of feasibility and functionality. Our algorithms integrate a model of the physical properties of Lego structures with an evolutionary process that freely combines bricks of different shape and size into structures that are evaluated by how well they perform a desired function. The evolutionary process runs in an environment that has not been unnecessarily constrained by our own preconceptions on how to solve the problem. The results are encouraging. The evolved structures have a surprisingly alien look: they are not based in common knowledge on how to build with brick toys; instead, the computer found ways of its own through the evolutionary search process. We were able to assemble the final designs manually and confirm that they accomplish the objectives introduced with our fitness functions. This chapter...
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