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Smart Metering Business Case

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Southeast Asia Smart Meter Market Overview:
Market Trends, Challenges, Future plans and
Opportunities
Metering Billing/CRM Asia 2012
May 8, 2012

Hoonho (Andy) Bae
Senior Analyst
Pike Research

Agenda








Smart Grid Overview
Smart Meters and AMI
Smart Meter Drivers and Challenges
Smart Meter Pilot Projects and Plans
Market Forecasts
Global Market Trends in Smart Meters
Conclusion

Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

2

Smart Grid Goals
Sustainable, Secure, Environmentally Safe Energy
• Reduce utility operating costs
• Improve grid reliability
• Increase energy efficiency

Less Grid
Intelligence

 Reduce overall demand
 Reduce end-to-end system losses
 Shift peak demand (C&I, residential)
• “Soft” consumer-driven “demand response”
• Verifiable, centrally controlled demand response

• Integrate renewable generation
 Intermittent, bulk generation
 Renewable Distributed Energy Generation (RDEG)

• Support electric transportation transition
 Commercial and personal vehicles (PEV)
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

More Grid
Intelligence
3

General Drivers for Smart Grid
Energy Independence

Security

Carbon Reduction

Regulatory Goals
Demand Response
Safety
Own Generation
Reliability
Customer Service
PEVs
Forecasting
Efficiency
Profitability
Billing
Lower Energy Costs
Market Operation
Opex Reduction
Collections Energy Management

Renewables

IT/OT Infrastructure
Communications / Automation Network
Power Network

Suppliers
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

Transmission

Substation

Distribution

Metering

Consumers
(Source: Pike Research)

4

Smart Meters
• Smart meter definition
 Integrated intelligence (computing and memory) with energy readings at least once per hour
 Integrated, two-way communications for remote reading and control of the meter

• Advanced metering infrastructure
 Private radio (RF) technologies (mesh or tower-based)
 Power Line Carrier
 Cellular (2G, 3G, 4G)

• Types of smart meters
 Advanced – with a Home Area Network (HAN) interface and remote disconnect
 Basic – without a HAN, may have remote disconnect
 Simple – limited communications
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

5

Technology Choices
RF Star

RF Mesh
WAN

Concentrator

VSAT

(Public Cell or Private)
Base
Station

WAN

Enterprise

WAN

Distribution

Meters
Meters

Power Line Carrier

Wireline, Broadband, Fiber

WAN

WAN

Concentrator
Meters
Copyright © 2011 Pike Research

Meters
(Source: Pike Research)

Smart Meter Drivers in Southeast
Asia
• Utility perspectives







Reduced meter reading labor costs
Increased meter reading frequency and accuracy
Remote connect/disconnect and load limiting
Outage detection
Power quality monitoring, outage prevention, and load planning
Theft prevention

• Consumer perspectives
 Promote reduced electricity energy use and carbon emission
 Promote behavioral change and empower individuals through knowledge and information  Save money for both consumers and suppliers via more accurate bills

• Southeast Asia regional perspectives
 Fast growing economy and urbanization – social and industrial infrastructure
 National electrification programs
 Enhanced electricity quality through AMI and smart grid environment

Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

7

Challenges and Barriers in
Southeast Asia
• Market participants struggling with more issues than those solved with smart meters
• Challenges include technology, capital, consumer participation, and standards issues:





Cost and ownership issues
Huge capital investment
Lack of legal framework and regulations
Lack of reliable and cost effective communication networks / backbone capacity
 Lack of IT infrastructure and integration
 Customer participation and awareness
 Cyber security and standards

• Still facing low electrification levels – smart metering not a high priority?
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

8

Smart Meter Pilot Projects and
Plans
• Indonesia
 Diverse projects by PT PLN
• AMR: Focusing on C&I customers via GSM since 2007
• AMI: Selected customers with 10,000 units of smart meters in trial projects via PLC
• Prepaid Meters: Over 500,000 units since 2009

• Malaysia
 “25-Year Electricity Technology Roadmap (TRM)” by TNB since
2009
 Smart meter trials with over 5,000 participating customers in different types of usage environments
• Bayan Lepas in Penang (industrial customers)
• Bukit Bintang in the capital city Kuala Lumpur (commercial customers)
• Medini in Johor, southern Malaysia (general customers)
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

9

Smart Meter Pilot Projects and
Plans
• The Philippines
 Meralco and NGCP are actively deploying smart meters,
Demand Response and T&D trials
• Smart substations in Antipolo by NGCP
• Total Investment in smart grid by Meralco $936 million by 2022
• Deploy smart meters with IHD in 2013
• Smart meters with two-way communications and total HEMS solutions via mobile connectivity

• Thailand
 PEA leads national Smart Grid programs including smart meters, renewable energies, EV, and T&D upgrades
• $13 billion in overall investment till 2027
• AMI trial projects with 10,000 units in Pattaya from 2012

Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

10

Total Electricity Meters Installed
Base Forecast
• Driven by National Electrification Programs and
Economic Growth
• Total 226 million units by 2020
Electric Meter Installed Base, Southeast Asia, by Country: 2009-2020
250,000,000

Vietnam

200,000,000

Thailand
Singapore
Philippines

150,000,000

Myanmar
Malaysia
100,000,000

Laos
Indonesia
Cambodia

50,000,000

Brunei
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

(Source: Pike Research)

Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

11

Smart Meter Penetration Rate
Forecast
• Singapore (74.8%), Malaysia (59.5%), Thailand (37.9%),
Indonesia (19.7%) by 2020
• Total penetration in ASEAN region will reach 24.5% by 2020
Smart Meter Installed Base (of all Meters) by Country, Southeast Asia: 2009-2020
80.0%

70.0%

Brunei
Cambodia

60.0%

Indonesia
50.0%

Laos
Malaysia

40.0%

Myanmar
Philippines

30.0%

Singapore
Thailand

20.0%

Vietnam
Total

10.0%

0.0%
2009

2010

Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020
(Source: Pike Research)

12

Other Regions Also Growing
• Latin America, led by Brazil, is increasing adoption
• Smart meter plans in Japan and Korea (KEPCO) also forming

• Prepay metering activity strong in Middle East and Africa
Smart Meter Installed Base (of all Meters) by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020

Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

(Source: Pike Research)

13

Conclusion
Self-managing,
demand responsive smart buildings

Generation > 30% renewable sources

Clean transportation, leveraging clean generation Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

Secure, self-healing, self-optimizing grid

Energy-efficient, self-managing homes driven by consumer choice
(Source: Pike Research)

• Still a long journey ahead for
Smart Meters, along with
Smart Grid Ecosystems
• Smart Meters are an essential part reaching advanced electricity services
• Strong opportunities exist in
South East Asia
• Smart Energy Ecosystem opportunities are emerging






Smart Homes
Smart Buildings
Smart Cities
Clean Transportation
Renewable generation
14

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Copyright © 2012 Pike Research

15

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