...Knowledge-Based Systems 30 (2012) 67–77 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Knowledge-Based Systems journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/knosys Bankruptcy prediction models based on multinorm analysis: An alternative to accounting ratios Javier de Andrés ⇑, Manuel Landajo, Pedro Lorca University of Oviedo, Spain a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t In this paper we address the bankruptcy prediction problem and outline a procedure to improve the performance of standard classifiers. Our proposal replaces traditional indicators (accounting ratios) with the output of a so-called multinorm analysis. The deviations of each firm from a battery of industry norms (computed by nonparametric quantile regression) are used as input variables for the classifiers. The approach is applied to predict bankruptcy of firms, and tested on a representative data set of Spanish firms. Results indicate that the approach may provide significant improvements in predictive accuracy, both in linear and nonlinear classifiers. Ó 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Article history: Received 9 February 2011 Received in revised form 2 October 2011 Accepted 3 November 2011 Available online 30 December 2011 Keywords: Bankruptcy prediction Classification techniques Nonparametric methods Quantile regression Accounting ratios 1. Introduction Under the current economic conditions, bankruptcy early warning systems have become tools of key importance in order to guarantee the...
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...2011 Second International Conference on Intelligent System Design and Engineering Application 2012 International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Engineering Application A Social Network Analysis Platform for Organizational Risk Analysis - ORA Yin Qiuju, Chen Qingqing School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, 100081 c_yinqj@163.com Abstract—ORA(Organizational Risk Analyzer) is a dynamic network evaluation and analysis tools which developed by the center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational System(CASOS), Carnegie Mellon University. It can track the relevant index of the group, identify the style of location and contrast the relation among networks, groups and individuals from the perspective of dynamic network. ORA also can recognize the key members, groups and vulnerabilities of the network between different time points, basing on which, carry on the further analysis. Compare with other social network analysis platform, ORA can support multiple data input form, and can instantly show the dynamic change of the network. This paper introduces the structure and functions of ORA, moreover, uses it to analyze the structure of a terrorist network, in order to find out the weakness of the organization. problems and to take advantage of network strengths. According to different contexts and types of the data, need to detailed test and determined. ORA can be used to do a risk audit for the organization ...
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...Mary Katherine O'Connor and F. Ellen Netting brings to the fore a thorough analysis of social policy by offering a thorough evaluation of social policy. The duo, in their book, Analyzing Social Policy touch on a number of intricacies and implementation with regards to social policy. Among others, the book in Chapters Five and Six explore the role of research in guiding policy analysis. The book records that research plays a paramount role in guiding the implementation as well as the general analysis of a policy (O'Connor & Netting, 2011). I dare to differ with the duo authors on this perspective. It would be as deceiving as much as it would be misguiding to insinuate that it is possible for the policy makers to rely purely on research to come with a policy aimed at making guidelines to rule the whole sector, say, the health sector. My position, which juxtaposes, the position of Analyzing Social Policy authors, is premised on the sole reason that many of the researches conducted today are not thoroughly conducted hence they cannot form a reliable source of analyzing social policy. In analyzing social policy, every detail that is relevant to a better understanding should be used as a means of ensuring that the analysis gives the best results. However, this cannot be achievable if the source of analysis of a social policy is a research whose authenticity is in doubt. Most research firms and organizations fail to tap the real intentions of research conducted. Ipso facto, such research...
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...An Analysis of Social Psychology People have been curious since the dawn of time and this curiosity has driven us to learn from and to understand the world around us. In order to fully understand our world, it was necessary for people to develop a method of study to explain what they experienced through the application of evaluation and analysis. Social psychology is the study of how people’s thoughts, feelings, and behaviors are influenced by other people (Kenrick, Neuberg & Cialdini, 2010). Social psychology is a division of psychology that analyzes the individual and their mental processes and how this can be applied to that persons interactions with society and also how interacting with society can influence the individuals thinking and behavior. By studying how people interact with each other, psychologists have been able to explain why people behave in certain ways and what their rationales are for their behavior. Social psychology is about understanding individual behavior in a social context, particularly the reciprocal interaction between the individual and the group that individual interacts with. As a scientific discipline, social psychology has only been around for a little longer that a hundred years. Since there are multiple ways to evaluate and attempt to understand how and why people interact with each other, social psychology has been referred to as a bridge discipline (Kenrick et al., 2010). This means that social psychology can be applied to...
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...When engaging in policy-practice it is important to understand how social services and social welfare policies are formulated, adopted, implemented, and evaluated. In doing so, social workers then can: Analyze and apply the theories of justice and social justice, apply the historical and contemporary conceptual frameworks of advocacy for social and economic justice, examine the origins of oppression and discrimination within social structures and its impacts on public policy, and examine the personal and professional role in ethical, cultural relevant and social generalist practice across systems of all sizes. In other words, policy practice allows social workers to advocate for individuals within the community by using his/her social work...
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...Analysis of Online Social Network American Sentinel University RN – BSN COM412 11-04-2011 Abstract In my previous papers, I have analyzed my self-concept and I found out that, I am an ISFJ personality. And by doing communication skills test based on www.queendom.com my interpersonal communication skills were graded as excellent, which I feel it is true based on my self-analysis. The aim of this paper is to make a link between Self-concept and communication skills and, to do an online search in Google or other popular engines like Facebook and twitter to find out” who I am, and how others are seeing me”. In order to do that, I considered myself as a stranger and an Employer. Key words: Self-Concept, Communication Skills, Facebook, “Who I am and how others are seeing me”, Stranger, Employer. In this paper, in order to make a link between “Who I am and how others are seeing me”, I did an online search in Google and other popular engines like Facebook and twitter. I wasn’t able to find my name in Google, because of the privacy settings in my Facebook profile. So, I logged into my Facebook account and I considered myself as a stranger and analyzed my profile. The results of self –analysis are as follows. Being a Stranger my assumptions are: 1. Privacy: My account settings are not open to public, by choosing the privacy settings my phone number, Email address, home address, date of birth; my friends and family list are kept private. 2. Profile Picture:...
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...I have learned a lot about the concepts that involve social movements and collective action. The four that will be discussed are as follows: counter movements, myth of grassroots, emotions, and collective memories. Growing up my mother also told me that I will encounter people who will not agree with what I value and believe in. The same is true for many social movements. Many movements have opposing movements, this is called, counter movement. According to Staggenborg, a counter movement is defined as, “a set of opinions and beliefs in a population opposed to a social movement” (Staggenborg 2011:6). A counter movement is formed because a social movement has risen and the counter movement is trying to oppose the values, beliefs, and standards...
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...business’ goal with their social media marketing? Plated was founded on the belief that “Individuals want better, more nutritious, less greasy food, and they’re willing to put in 20-30 minutes of work in order to get it-if given the choice.” Plated’s unique outlook on creating time and budget friendly meals for all of it’s customers every night paired with a dynamic social media campaign covering mediums such as Pinterest, Twitter, YouTube and Facebook create an experience for its customers unparalled by many other companies in America. Plated strategically uses its social media campaigns in order to create brand awareness across the internet, engage its customers through the sharing of personal takes on recipes, recipes success and failures, and the asking of questions to the chef whom designed a specific recipe, explore untapped consumer markets through social media analytics, build brand loyalty and drive sales. Plated successfully uses social media to gain fan feedback and suggestions, create discussions that engage consumers about their food related opinions, for creating brand engagement and loyalty, and to embrace the consumer and position its brand. Plated is able to successfully gain critical insights into its target audiences wants, needs, likes, dislikes, which in turn enables Plated to adapt its company to its target audience thus increasing customer satisfaction, loyalty, and revenue. In terms of what Plated could improve on, the company’s social media campaign lacks...
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...rational brain knows everything will be fine. It can feel like a huge cluster of negativity hanging over you. No matter how severe or what part of your life anxiety controls it takes a toll on your everyday life. The two S’s or Social interactions and your school life are all controlled by over analyzation and thoughts of ‘what ifs’ creating stresses and struggles throughout life whether at home, school,...
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...LaFarge Labor Force and Employment 06/07/2012 Employment, Social Capital, and Health: An Empirical Analysis The United States labor force has been undergoing massive changes in over the past 30 or so years. More people are working as the population continues to rise, but even more so people with more diverse backgrounds and demographics are entering the work force or clamoring for jobs, as how the economy is currently structured seems to predict that individuals who would like to enter the labor force won’t be able to. Sociologists White and Cunneen contend that “structural unemployment and underemployment, privatization of state services and withdrawal of income support” (White and Cunneen) inherently exist in neo-liberal ideologies, making this disparity between the employed and the unemployed seemingly unavoidable. With this increase in size and diversity of the labor force and the accompanying restrictions to entry, the effects of employment merit analysis. One could possibly make the argument that of employment's causal relationships, perhaps none are more important than employment's affect on one's health. Indeed, “occupational conditions have consequences for physical health outcomes” (Wickrama Lorenz 363). Further, “A central theoretical proposition of sociology states that social structural positions have dramatic effects on life chances” (Link...
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...In the following passages, the main theme that is presented is limitations imposed by class. There are two points of view given about what it’s like living in a lower class and seeing the disadvantages. McCourt’s passage was from the perspective of him as a little boy living in destitution. While Petry’s passage was from the overview of a single black mother. McCourt and Petry both write about the experiences of poverty. When living in a lower class, poverty leads to lack of education. Education brings knowledge, and knowledge is power. As a kid, Frank McCourt lacked the advantages that kids in a higher class received. Petry as a single mom lacked advantages for both her kid and her as well. Because of living in a lower class, those in the passages encountered difficulties around health. Lutie had viewed the threat to the health of low-income homes. “It found all the dirt and dust and grime on the sidewalk and lifted it up so that the dirt got into their noses, making it difficult to breathe; the dust got into their eyes and blinded them; and the grit stung their skins”. In addition, Frank and his siblings many times had been on the edge of death because of a lack of resources. With this in mind, limitations imposed by class limited both protagonists socially, economically, and politically. The apathy that society shows in these passages, a theme of society and their views on class. There is a lack of concern for the well-being of the places of the people of lower classes...
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...conform to social norms in order to be accepted into a certain group or society. Although everyone conforms to social standards, not everyone realizes that they do. However, one might register this social conformity if they simply ask themselves the question, “why do I act the way I do?”. For example, when teenagers are surrounded by their peers, they might find it acceptable to drink alcohol and use profanity. On the other hand, when in a school setting, teenagers would not find this behavior acceptable because they are surrounded by authority figures. Therefore, behavior that is acceptable in one setting is not tolerable in another. Consequently, the tolerability of certain behaviors differs upon the setting and can be influenced...
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...Abstract Social media monitoring the public views can be understood by the theories of people’s opinion. Online reviews became increasingly popular in a broad way for people to share their views and sentiment with other users towards any product. These online reviews provide a healthy information about any product which is newly launched in the market. This could be very useful for the business people to improve their product’s quality and productivity. to make reviews in their own field. There comes Sentiment analysis which makes review using the people’s attitude accordingly. Sentiment analysis/opinion mining has attracted its attention all over the world. Extraction of sentiment word and sentiment target from online reviews are the two...
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...“ . . . private individuals are apt to look after their own interests first, and to forget the general effect upon the public, and it is necessary that there should be somebody to watch the public interests” (1874, Select Committee on the Metropolitan Buildings and Management Bill) To what extent did social class dictate the solution for the Great Stink of London in 1858? Social class dictated the solution to the so-called Great Stink of London in 1858 to a large extent. By 1858 the overwhelming smell arising from the Thames, which was used as a water source from medieval and Tudor periods, had affected most of London and became a pressing issue in the House of Parliament. London’s class system of the 1800s consisted of seven classes ,...
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...Social class, cultural capital, and social capital are interconnected. A social class refers to any group with the same access to resources (McIntyre 2011). An example of a resource is access to an education connecting it to cultural capital, a set of knowledge, perspective, norms, language styles, and cultural forms shared by a group (Class Notes 10/18/17). Social capital refers to the resources we have from personal connections. One’s social class, cultural capital, and social capital often link to one’s status, “a position held in the social structure” (McIntyre 2011: 122). While my current social class is the middle class, my past cultural capital and my social capital gained by my statuses at Hanover College, will propel me into my desired...
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