SPRING VALLEY FOREST PRODUCTS CORPORATION

Upon returning from his annual two-week vacation in early July of 2002, the treasurer of the Spring Valley Forest Products Corporation, a Mr. Fred Firr, found the firm's audited balance sheet as of June 30 on his desk. Close scrutiny of the company's financial condition as reported in this document suggested to Mr. Firr that the cash flow picture for the enterprise was deteriorating. In times gone by, the firm had been able to maintain sizeable cash balances in its bank of account, Tippecanoe Trust Company, during the major portion of the fiscal year, and had found only modest seasonal borrowings necessary. Recently, however, a lengthening of credit terms to customers necessitated by intense competition in the company's dominant product lines had increased working capital needs quite substantially. Simultaneously, lower selling prices occasioned by the same competition had diminished profit margins. For these reasons, Mr. Firr-who had starred as a quarterback in high school, felt that a careful forecast of funds needs for the remainder of 2002 was in order.

Spring Valley Forest Products (SPRIVORPCO) produced plywood paneling and moldings both for lumber wholesalers and major contractors in the north central Indiana area. The verdant Wabash River Valley had proven capable of supporting the lush growths of timber necessary to the company's production activities. Most lumber, however, was purchased from independent farmers and lumbermen rather than grown by the company itself. Raw material costs, therefore, were relatively high in relation to sales. The firm's products, marketed under the brand name SPRIV, enjoyed an unvarnished reputation for quality.

In making his forecasts for the period July 1 through December 31, 2002, Mr. Firr estimated that the pattern of monthly sales was likely to be of the form: