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Steel Growth in 2014

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モディ政権誕生によるインドの
鋼材需要拡大への課題と期待
5 月にインドでモディ政権が誕生した。 IT サービスに
強みを持ち第三次産業が GDP の 6 割弱を占めるイン
ドだが、 モディ政権に替わり経済政策に変化が見られ、
雇用創出効果の高い製造業の強化に前向きな姿勢を見
せている。 同国の製造業は、 飲食品や繊維など軽工業
の比重が高いが、 今後は土地収用規制の緩和や地域
経済圏の創設などで外資も取り込み、 重工業に注力を
図る意向がうかがえる。 また、 予想される工業発展と人
口増加に対して脆弱なインフラ環境の整備の必要性もい
われている。 それらに伴い、 インドでは、 重工業向けや
インフラ向けの鋼材需要が高まることが予想される。 これ
まで世界の鉄鋼産業の牽引役であった中国が、 人口動
態などから潜在成長力の低下が見込まれ、 また投資主
導型から消費主導型の経済への転換を図っていることも
あり、 これまでのような高水準の鋼材需要は期待しにくく
なりつつあるなか、 「中国の次」 として、 インドに対する
期待が高まっている。

インドの鉄鋼市場の現状認識
インドの鉄鋼産業は、 1907 年のタタ ・ スチール (タタ)
による高炉操業に始まる。 1901 年に官営八幡製鉄所が
操業した日本と大差はない。 ただし、 その後の成長軌
道は日印で大きく異なり、 インドで鉄鋼生産が本格化し
たのは 1960 年代に英国や旧ソ連などからの援助の下国
営の製鉄所が立ち上がってからであった。 民営のタタか
ら始まったインドの鉄鋼業だが、 その後は国営が主導し
た。 変化が起きたのは 1991 年に経済自由化政策が導
入されてからで、 還元炉から圧延までの工程を一貫して
行う電炉メーカーや、 スクラップや還元鉄を購入して半
製品を生産する電炉メーカーが誕生した 1。 これによりイ
ンドの粗鋼生産に占める電炉の比率が高まり、現在では、
高炉が 3 割強、 電炉が 7 割弱となっている (図表 1)。
電炉比率の高さが他国とは異なる特徴といえよう。 この
変化に伴い、 企業形態別構成は、 2003 年にはインド鉄
鋼公社 (SAIL) など国営が 4 割を占めていたが、 現在
では約 2 割にまで低下し、 タタやジンダル (JSW) など
の民営が 8 割近くを占めている。
インド国内の粗鋼生産能力は 9,960 万トン (2013 年
度) で、 ここ 10 年で倍増以上となった。 粗鋼生産量は
8,154 万トンで、 中国、 日本、 米国に次ぐ世界 4 位で
ある。 稼働率はここ数年、 80%台前半で推移しており、
90%前後であったリーマン危機以前の水準を下回ってい
る (図表 2)。 ただし、 今後の需要拡大期待から、 国内
の国営、 民営企業に加え、 韓 POSCO など外資も能力
の新増設を図っている。
戦略研マンスリー

図表 1. インドの製法別粗鋼生産量の推移

図表 3. インドの各種統計の中国に対する比率

出所:世界鉄鋼協会

出所:世界鉄鋼協会 世界銀行をもとに三井物産戦略研究所作成
出所:世界鉄鋼協会、

図表 2. インドの粗鋼生産能力と稼働率の推移

図表 4. 鋼材見掛け消費の見通し

注:数値は年度(4 月- 3 月)ベース 出所:インド鉄鋼省

出所:世界鉄鋼協会、インド鉄鋼省

三井物産戦略研究所
産業調査第一室
大西 勝

新政権の製造業強化への取り組みと課題
製造業の強化を図るインド政府は、 GDP に占める製
造業の割合を現在の 15%から 2022 年までに 25%に引
き上げる目標を設定した。 その間の GDP 成長を考慮す
ると、 金額は 1.25 兆ドルとなり現在の約 4 倍に拡大する
といわれる。 製造業振興のための 「Make in India」 政
策では、 政府が奨励する 25 業種に鉄鋼業は含まれて
いないものの、 自動車、 電気機器などに加え、 インフラ
関連産業が含まれており、 それらに向けた鋼材需要の
拡大が期待される。 2014 年度の予算案では、 年度内の
8,000km の高速国道の開発や 16 の新しい港の建設プロ
ジェクト認可に加え、15,000km に及ぶガスパイプライン敷
設、9路線の超高速鉄道の整備、
100カ所のスマートシティ
建設などにも割り当てられ、 グジャラート州とマハラシュ
トラ州での経済特区設置も盛り込まれた。 これらを受け、
インド鉄鋼省は、 2025 年度までに国内の粗鋼生産量を
3 億トンにする目標を示した。 今後 12 年で 2.4 倍となる。
これは、 5 月発表の鉄鋼省の長期見通し (2025 年度の
粗鋼生産能力を 3 億トン)から、実質的な上方修正となる。
中国型の投資主導による経済成長により拡大期待が
高まるインドの鋼材需要だが、 懸念材料も多く課題は山
積している。 インドの 2013 年の経常収支は 320 億ドル
の赤字で、 政府債務は GDP 比 50%近くに上るなど財
政状況は脆弱で、 中国並みの財政政策による景気拡大
は期待しがたい。 成長の可否は、 民間投資によるところ
が大きくなるが、 その点、 2013 年春に見たような為替の
急落など経済的な安定性に欠けることは、 リスクを嫌う外
資による資本流入やそれを元にした経済成長が、 思い
描くようなものになるかを不透明なものにさせよう。 また、
沈静化傾向にはあるものの足元でも 6%台のインフレの
問題もあり、 経済成長に加え、 財政均衡、 為替の安
定、 インフレ抑制などを同時進行させる困難な舵取りが
求められている。 ブルームバーグによると、 インドの実質
GDP 成長率予想の平均値は、 2014 年が 5.4%、 2015
年は 5.5%、 2016 年は 6.2%と、 成長速度は徐々に早ま
ることが期待されているものの、 減速懸念をいわれながら
も 7.5%前後の成長が見込まれている中国よりも低い。
また、 土地収用や環境に関する規制の緩和などで、
投資環境の整備を進めることも重大な課題である。 イン
ドは連邦制で州政府の権限が強く、 土地収用に関して
は州政府の所管であり、 新政権が及ぼせる影響力は限
定的である。 前政権時の 2013 年に土地収用法の改正
が行われたが、 手続きには地権者の合意 (PPP で 7 割、
民間開発で 8 割) が必要とされたことで、 かえって土地
収用を進めにくくなったといわれ、 現政権が同法の再改
正を図っている。 グジャラート州などでは改正の動きが

見られるが、 全体として歩みは鈍い。 その背景に、 新
政権が上院では少数派にあり政治基盤が脆弱であること
が挙げられている。 そのことは、 現政権が WTO 貿易円
滑化協定に反対したことにも表れており、 2014 年秋以降
の各州議会選挙に向け、 政策が内向きになっているよう
だ。 国会でのねじれ現象の解決が重要となるが、 次の
上院選は 2016 年で、当面は現状が続くことになる。 また、
世界銀行の 「ビジネスのしやすい国ランキング」 でイン
ドは 189 カ国中、 134 位で、 公務員と政治家の腐敗度
合を示す 「腐敗認識指数」 でも 177 カ国中、 94 位にと
どまっている。 これらは外資の投資先の選考の際にも重
要な要素となる。 これらの改善などを含め、 政府が対応
すべき課題は極めて多い。

インドの潜在的な鋼材需要の拡大余地
インドの潜在的な鋼材需要が極めて高いことは確かで
あろう。 モディ政権による製造業強化の動きを受けたイン
ドの鋼材需要の拡大の可能性を見るため、 同じ BRICs の
中で人口規模がほぼ同等で、ブラジル、ロシアと比べ天然
資源への経済依存度が低く、 インドが指向する投資主導
型の経済成長で先行した中国との比較を基に考察する。
1990 年代初頭まで、 中国とインドの 1 人当たり GDP
はおおむね同水準で推移していた。 その後、 中国が
財政税制 ・ 銀行 ・ 外国為替管理などのシステム改革を
掲げてから差がつき始め、 2001 年に中国が WTO に加
盟したことでそれが加速した。 現在、 インドの 1 人当た
り GDP は、 中国の 22% 2 にまで低下している。 ただし、
1 人当たり鋼材消費量の差はさらに大きく、 2012 年時点
でインドは 61.2kg で、 中国 (508kg) の 12%にすぎな
い。 これは、 インドは大規模な実物投資を要さない第三
次産業の割合が中国に比べ高いという経済構造の違い
が主因であろう。 このことは、 インドの 1 人当たり総固定
資本形成の中国に対する比率が、 2000 年代半ばの一
時期を除き、 GDP よりも、 鋼材消費に近い水準 (直近
で 13.5%) で推移していることからもうかがえる (図表 3)。
中国に比べ、 経済成長に対してこれまで国内で蓄積さ

れた鉄鋼量が少ないことを示唆しているといえ、 インドの
鋼材需要の拡大余地は大きいと考えられる。
現在のインドは、 1 人当たり鋼材消費や総固定資本形
成で見ると、 1991 年の中国とほぼ同水準である。 インド
鉄鋼省が 5 月に発表した長期見通しの中で行った 3 つ
の経済成長シナリオでの長期の鋼材需要の試算のうち、
最も楽観的な予測では、 2025 年度に 2.08 億トン、 2032
年度に 3.39 億トンを見込んでいる。 この試算と、 中国の
1991 年から現在までの鉄鋼消費の拡大基調を並べると、
2022 年 (中国の 2001 年) あたりまでは、ほぼ同等となっ
ている (図表 4)。 その後、 中国は WTO 加盟などを受
け、 経済成長および鋼材需要が大幅に拡大したことで、
その 10 年後の着地時点では倍以上の差がついている。
前述のインド鉄鋼省のシナリオは、GDP 成長率が 8%、
2025 年度までの鋼材需要成長率は年率 7.9% (鋼材
需要成長率の GDP 成長率に対する比率 : GDP 弾性値
=0.99)、 それ以降、 2032 年度までは鋼材需要成長率が
同 6.3% (弾性値 0.79) というものである。 一方で、 中
国の 1991 年から 2012 年までの年率平均 GDP 成長率
は 15.8%で、 最初の 10 年間の鉄鋼消費の GDP 弾性
値は 0.88 ながら、 2001 年からの 10 年間は 1.38 と大幅
に拡大した。 現在、 5%前後の GDP 成長にとどまるイン
ドにとって、 今後 20 年、 8%成長が続くとの前提は、 現
段階では楽観的といわざるを得ない。 一方で、 0.99 ~
0.79 という弾性値の前提は、 保守的なように思われる。
これまでの実績などを反映したとのことだが、 新政権の
製造業重視の政策が軌道に乗った場合、 経済成長の上
振れに加え、弾性値が従来を上回る可能性があることは、
中国の例からもうかがえよう。 今後のインドの鋼材需要の
拡大を期待させるが、 中国が経済成長や鉄鋼需要に弾
みをつけたきっかけが WTO 加盟であったことは、 前述
の WTO でのインドの消極姿勢とは対照的に映る。 イン
ドの高い潜在力を現実のものにするため、 新政権には
種々の課題の克服が求められよう。
出所 : 鉄リサイクリング・リサーチ、日本鉄鋼連盟
2 数値はマーケットベース。PPP ベースでは 45%。

戦略研マンスリー

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