...The use of earnings forecasts in stock recommendations: Are accurate analysts more consistent?† Andreas Simon Orfalea College of Business California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo, CA (email: ansimon@calpoly.edu) Asher Curtis David Eccles School of Business The University of Utah Salt Lake City, UT (email: asher.curtis@business.utah.edu) This draft: September, 2010. Forthcoming, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting. ABSTRACT: We examine how analysts’ conflicting incentives to be either accurate or optimistic affect their choice to generate stock recommendations with rigorous valuation models or growth-based heuristics. Consistent with prior research the average analyst recommendation is negatively associated with rigorous valuation models and positively associated with growth-based heuristics, we document that these associations are weakest for the most accurate analysts and strongest for the least accurate analysts. We also find evidence consistent with consistency between recommendations and valuation models underlying the positive future returns from trading on the most accurate analysts’ recommendations. Our results are consistent with reputation incentives to be accurate mitigating the use of optimistic growthbased models in generating stock recommendations. Keywords: Forecast Accuracy; Fundamental Valuation; Stock Recommendations; Analyst Reputation. † Andreas Simon and Asher Curtis are, respectively, from the Orfalea College of Business...
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...HONG KONG POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY School of Accounting and Finance AF 4331 Business Valuation 2015/2016 Semester One Course Outline Subject Code : AF4331 Subject Title : Business Valuation Level : 4 Credits : 3 Mode of Study : Seminars 39 hours Pre-requisites : Corporate Finance (AF4320) Instructor ; Emmie SIU Office Phone : 27666340 E-mail : emmie.siu@polyu.edu.hk Consultation : Monday 2:30 pm to 6:30 pm Role and Purpose This subject aims to introduce an analytical framework for carrying out business analysis and valuation by using financial statements for valuing different kind of businesses. It contributes to the achievement of the BBA Programme Outcomes by enabling students to identify and resolve ethical issues contained in the financial statements (Outcome 4), apply basic accounting and financial theories to analyze financial reports and to identify potential problems and risks (Outcome 7). By the end of this subject, students will become a professional user of financial statements to advance further into the field of business valuation as investment analysis. It requires students to present and communicate effectively in English for general business communication (Outcome 1). Learning Outcomes Upon completion of the subject, students will be able to: a. Develop the ability to critically...
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...AMITY INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS SCHOOL ANALYSIS AND VALUATION OF EQUITY SECURITIES OF TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES , INFOSYS AND WIPRO LTD. SUBMITTED TO: SUBMITTED BY : Ms.Vibha Singh Atreya Vyas A1802011445 Section C MBA IB TABLE OF CONTENTS S.No | Topic | Page Number | 1 | Introduction | 3 | 2 | Research Methodolgy | 4 | 2.1 | Research Objectives | 5 | 2.2 | Proposed Literature Review and Tentative Hypothesis | 5 | 3 | Data Collection | 7 | 4 | About Companies and Research | 8 | 5 | Limitation of Study | 11 | 6 | References | 12 | 1) INTRODUCTION In today’s era every company needs cash or cash equivalents to run its day to day activities smoothly. The major sources through which companies can borrow money are: * Bank Loans * Debenture * Preference Share * Equity Share. Bank Loan is the amount which companies receive after fulfilling all the required information which is mandate according to the rules of banks. Companies need to mortgage its assets as guarantee for the future repayment of its loan amt. on the loan bank charge interest which company has to pay irrespective of the fact that company is in profit or loss. Debentures are the instruments which are used to acknowledge the receipt of the debt form the debenture holders. Debenture Holders are sought lenders for the company. They...
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...On Comparing Residual Income and Discounted Cash Flow Models of Equity Valuation: A Response to Penman 2001 (CAR, Winter 2001)* RUSSELL J. LUNDHOLM, University of Michigan TERRENCE B. O’KEEFE, University of Oregon and University of Queensland In the Summer 2001 issue of Contemporary Accounting Research we published a paper arguing that, given a full set of forecasted financial statements, the value estimates from a residual income model and a discounted cash flow model should yield identical results. The reason prior empirical studies (Penman and Sougiannis 1998 and Francis, Olsson, and Oswald 2000) found differences between the models is because of subtle errors in the implementation of the models. Penman (2001) understandably takes issue with our paper, claiming that we are wrong on three points. We feel quite confident in our original paper and will rebut each of Penman’s claims. Penman repeatedly states that he is interested in practical issues surrounding valuation. We share this interest; in fact, we were motivated to write our paper because of the common question raised by students and faculty: “Why do I get a different answer from my discounted cash flow valuation than from my residual income valuation?” We still maintain that, if carefully done, there will be no difference in the valuations from these theoretically equivalent models. Our paper shows exactly how to do this and illustrates commonly made mistakes. Further, any practical attempt to value a firm begins with forecasting...
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...Shortlisting Companies for Detailed Analysis This article is a part of the series of articles "Selecting Top Stocks to Buy". In the first article of this series (Getting right perspective towards Investing), we discussed about getting the right perspective towards stock investing and the requisite qualities for becoming a successful investor. In the second article of this series(Choosing the Stock Picking Approach suitable to you), we learned about different stock picking approaches available to an investor and the guidelines for selecting the stock picking approach suitable to her. The current article in this series, aims to highlight the necessity of shortlisting a few companies for detailed analysis, out of the thousands of companies available to an investor. We would also learn about various tools, which an investor can use for shortlisting these companies. As per Bombay Stock Exchange website, at September 14, 2014, there are 5,471 stocks available for investing. Each of these stocks represents a company running a unique business. Business of each of these companies is different from all the other companies whether they are from the same or different industries. For example, a pharmaceutical company will have a business entirely different from a telecom company. Moreover, within the pharmaceutical companies, a company selling its products in Indian market will have a very different business from another company, which sells its products in overseas markets...
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...Amtelecom Group Inc. Valuation (Amtelecom Communication) Presented by: Table of Contents Executive Summary3 What does it mean when a company "trades at a discount"? Is AMT really trading at a discount? 4 Do you agree with AGI's decision to break up the company? To sell the communication business rather than the courier business? 4-5 Size up the communication s industry and identify key success factors. Size up strengths and weaknesses of AMT?5-7 Assess the value of AMT using all available methods. Which valuation method is most appropriate for each sales alternative? What are the expected net proceeds from each alternative? (Exhibit A & B)8 As Stanley Stewart, what sales proposal would you recommend? How would you pitch it to the board? How would you market it to the potential investors/acquirers? 9 . * AGI strategic intent is to divest Amtelecom Communications, a wholly-subsidiary of AGI, in order to increase value for AGI shareholders. * AGI board unanimously approved to market off the business, but it subject to three conditions; * Retirement of current debt in full; * Payment of a reasonable dividend to AGI shareholders; and * The courier business had to be left with sufficient capital to stay in business. * Proposal To address the above situation, we propose the following valuation: * TEV/EBITDA multiple for both ICS and Amtelecom Communications * METHOD #1 - Using the Stock Price / Dividend Yield. ...
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...Running head: THE VALUATION OF WAL-MART 1 THE VALUATION OF WAL-MART 2 In fiscal year 2010, Wal-Mart stock sold for a 52-week high of $55.01 and a 52-week low of $46.42. Stock in the company was regularly recommended as a “buy” or a “hold” by analysts, according to Bloomberg L. P. However, with dividend payment of only $1.09 per share on earnings of $3.72, a payout of only 29%, far lower than the industry payout rate at maturity of 45%. The result of this low dividend payout has Sabrina Gupta, a stock analyst, reevaluating the actual value of Wal-Mart stock as a recommendation to new or existing clients. Wal-Mart was built to save people money and make their lives better. Its business model has made Wal-Mart dominant. It beats out its competitors by offering a variety of products for competitive prices. It consistently plans expansion into metropolitan and international areas. Wal-Mart focuses on cutting their expenses at a rate that exceeds revenue growth so income will grow faster than revenue. The returns are distributed to the company’s investors. Wal-Mart has paid out dividends since its first stock offering in 1974, payouts ranged from 5.6% in 1974 to 29.3% in 2010. Over the last eight years, the payout percentage increased 12.5%. Analysis In the previous four years, the Wal-Mart stock continued to grow and fare well in the market. Since 1974, Wal-Mart’s annual earnings gained an average of 25% yearly, although growth has slowed to between...
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...marketconsensus.com/news/walmart-stock-good-buy-sell-or-hold-2013 Jump to navigation FacebookTwitterGoogle+ * Log In * Create a New Account * Forgot your password? ------------------------------------------------- Top of Form Search form Search for Articles Search Bottom of Form MarketConsensus Smart Insights - Reviews & Analysis Main menu * Home * Market and Business News * Reviews (Banks & Online Brokers) * Personal Finance * Entrepreneurs * Contact Us * About Us Is Walmart Stock a Good Buy, Sell or Hold in 2013? Share on facebookShare on Facebook Share on twitterShare on Twitter Share on printPrint Created by Stock Analysis Desk (New York) on 6/02/2013 6:54 PM Walmart Stock Analysis - Is WMT a Good Stock to Buy, Sell or Hold? Wal-Mart (Stock: WMT) recently reported a 1.4% decline in its U.S. comparable (or comp) same-store-sales in Q1 2013. This is the first such decline in 6 quarters of Walmart reporting comp increases. Based on a recent report published by Bloomberg, it appears Wal-Mart is struggling to keep its stores stocked with items that consumers are seeking. As seen in the below chart, Walmart’s tock, WMT, has been lagging behind its main competitors, Costco (COST) and Target (TGT). Given the weakness in global economies, and cautious consumer spending in the U.S. (WMT's biggest market), investors might be wondering whether Walmart stock is a good buy, sell or hold. Does WMT stock still make sense as...
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...In financial markets, stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally, potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement – stocks that are judged undervalued (with respect to their theoretical value) are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the expectation that undervalued stocks will, on the whole, rise in value, while overvalued stocks will, on the whole, fall. In the view of fundamental analysis, stock valuation based on fundamentals aims to give an estimate of their intrinsic value of the stock, based on predictions of the future cash flows and profitability of the business. Fundamental analysis may be replaced or augmented by market criteria – what the market will pay for the stock, without any necessary notion of intrinsic value. These can be combined as "predictions of future cash flows/profits (fundamental)", together with "what will the market pay for these profits?" These can be seen as "supply and demand" sides – what underlies the supply (of stock), and what drives the (market) demand for stock? In the view of others, such as John Maynard Keynes, stock valuation is not a prediction but a convention, which serves to facilitate investment and ensure that stocks are liquid, despite being underpinned by an illiquid business and its illiquid investments, such as factories. Contents [hide]...
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...in class. 1. How does a typical analyst report look like? What are the major signals that you can use / construct for trading purpose? Analyst report: is the culmination of a process that includes the collection, evaluation, and dissemination of information related to a firm’s future performance. * The majority of analyst report includes 3 key measures: * 1) earnings forecast * 2) stock recommendation (buy/sell/hold) * 5 Distinct Recommendations: strong buy, buy, hold, sell, strong sell (For each recommendation, assess whether to upgrade, iterate or downgrade) * 3) price target * These reports frequently present extensive quantitative and qualitative analysis supporting the summary measures. (R2, regression, etc) When we read analyst reports, we have to be suspicious, since their analysis differ and might have access to only popular information. 2. How to measure the accuracy of price targets? Can you construct other measures of your own? We consider a price target prediction to be accurate if the analyzed firm’s stock price equals or exceeds the 12-month projected price at any time during the year following the release of the report. Construction of other measures: you can take the average of the 12 month and see the difference with the target price. 3. How to quantify the justifications for an analyst’s opinion about the underlying firm? Table 1, Panel B: positive and negative remarks recorded for 14 different...
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... Group Project Stock valuation using discounted cash flow analysis Guideline: Length of the report: 10-15 pages, double space, group no more than 5 people, due date 07/11/2013, weight 25% of final grade. Stock purchasing or investment is one of the most important investments of Hong Kong individuals. In the Asian and global financial crisis, a lot of Hong Kong people suffered huge losses in the Hong Kong stock markets. One of the reasons is probably that they have not evaluated the stocks carefully before purchasing. In this report, you are required to use the stock valuation models learned in this course to evaluate the Hong Kong stock prices. Specifically, you should relate the report to the dividend payments of Hong Kong stocks. Dividend is paid for almost every blue chip stock in Hong Kong. However, small stocks in Hong Kong seldom pay dividends. For blue chip stocks, you can use constant or non-constant dividend growth models for the stock valuation. For small stocks, however, you may use one-period discount model or dividend growth models for the valuation. By choosing several blue chip and small stocks for stock valuation in this group project, you should be able to learn the advantages and shortcomings to use stock valuation models to valuate Hong Kong stocks in practice. The other implication of this group project is that making money in the Hong Kong stock market is not an easy task as it is very difficult to get fair valuation of...
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...firms and for strategic planning to generate value within the firm. • • Features of the approach: A disciplined approach to valuation: minimizes ad hockery – Built on theoretical and empirical findings from scientific research I ‘_ Marries fundamental analysis and financial statement analysis – Exploits accounting as a system for measuring value added – Exposes good (and “bad”) accounting from a valuation perspective L Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation • • • Integrates financial statement analysis with corporate finance Focuses on technologies that can be used in practice – Based on real world examples Adopts activist point of view to investing – The market may be inefficient 0-1 What Will You Learn from the Course Part I Financial statements and valuation Ch. 1-7 • How intrinsic values are calculated • What determines a firm’s value • How businesses are analyzed to assess the value they create • How financial analysis is developed for strategy and planning • The role of financial statements in determining firms’ values • How to pull apart the financial statements to get at the relevant information • How ratio analysis is employed in valuation • How growth is analyzed and valued • How to calculate the P/E and P/B ratio and what they should be • The value of operations • How to make forecasts and develop valuations • How to assess the quality of the accounting 0-2 _c I- By the end of the course, students should be able to develop...
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... For More Courses and Exams use this form ( http://hwguiders.com/contact-us/ ) Feel Free to Search your Class through Our Product Categories or From Our Search Bar (http://hwguiders.com/ ) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem A1 (Bond Valuation) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem A10 (Dividend discount model) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem A12 (Required return for a preferred stock) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem A14 (Stock Valuation) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem B16 (Interest-rate risk) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem B18 (Default risk) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem B20 (Constant growth model) FIN 571 W2 Ch 7 Problem C1 (Beta and required return) FIN 571 Week 2 Individual Assignment Text Problem Sets Get Tutorial by Clicking on the link below or Copy Paste Link in Your Browser https://hwguiders.com/downloads/fin-571-week-2-individual-assignment-text-problem-sets/ For More Courses and Exams use this form ( http://hwguiders.com/contact-us/ ) Feel Free to Search your Class through Our Product Categories or From Our Search Bar (http://hwguiders.com/ ) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem A1 (Bond Valuation) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem A10 (Dividend discount model) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem A12 (Required return for a preferred stock) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem A14 (Stock Valuation) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem B16 (Interest-rate risk) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem B18 (Default risk) FIN 571 W2 Ch 5 Problem B20 (Constant growth model) FIN 571 W2 Ch 7 Problem C1 (Beta and required return) FIN 571 Week 2 Individual Assignment...
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...Shiller popularized this method with his version of the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) in the late 1990s, and issued a timely warning of poor stock returns to follow in the coming years. We apply this valuation metric across more than thirty foreign markets and find it both practical and useful. Indeed, we witness even greater examples of bubbles and busts abroad than in the United States. We then create a trading system to build global stock portfolios based on valuation, and find significant outperformance by selecting markets based on relative and absolute valuation. Mebane T. Faber The Ivy Portfolio 2321 Rosecrans Avenue Suite 3225 El Segundo, CA 90245 Phone: 310.683.5500 Fax: 310.683.5505 info@cambriainvestments.com www.cambriainvestments.com CQR ISSUE 5 | August 2012 INTRODUCTION – THE FUTILITY OF FORECASTING Investors spend an inordinate amount of time and effort forecasting stock market direction, often with very little success. The conventional efficient market theory is that markets are not predictable and cannot be forecasted. Value has no place in the efficient market ivory tower, but does it seem reasonable for an investor, or perhaps a retiree, to have allocated the same amount of a portfolio to stocks in December 1999 versus in 1982? Of course not. However, valuation is best used as a strategic guide rather than as a short-term timing tool. It is most useful on a time scale of years and decades rather than weeks and months (or...
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...CHAPTER 7 COMMON STOCK: CHARACTERISTICS, VALUATION AND ISSUANCE ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS: 1. a. Nonvoting stock - common stock that is issued when the firm wishes to raise additional equity capital but does not want to give up voting power. b. Stock split - the issuance of a number of new shares in exchange for each old share held by a stockholder in order to lower the stock price to a more desirable trading level. c. Reverse stock split - the issuance of one new share in exchange for a number of old shares held by a stockholder in order to raise the stock price to a more desirable trading level. d. Stock dividend - a dividend to stockholders in the form of additional shares of stock instead of cash. e. Book value - total common stockholders' equity divided by the number of shares outstanding. f. Treasury stock - shares of common stock that have been repurchased by the company. 2. No, the retained earnings figure on the balance sheet is simply the cumulative amount of earnings that have been retained over time. At the time when income is retained, these dollars may be used to purchase additional long-term assets. As a result, the retained earnings amount is not available for current dividends. Current dividends are paid out of cash (or earnings) and not out of retained earnings. 3. Reasons for stock repurchases: • tax considerations – Under current tax laws, capital gains income is taxed at lower rates than...
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