...Options Theory Applied to Alternative Energy Industry Christina Clowdus Bus: 630 March 20, 2012 Dr. Shaw Introduction In life, you always have options. It is no different in capital investment. In today's unpredictable business world, managers recognize how risky the most valuable investment opportunities often are, and how useful a flexible strategy can be. That's why they want to know all their options. Yet many current financial assessment tools fail to identify what investors can do to capitalize on future uncertain events. “Managerial flexibility to adapt and revise future decisions in order to capitalize on favorable future opportunities or to limit losses has proven vital to long-term corporate success in an uncertain and changing marketplace” (Brennan, M.J. and E.S. Schwartz 1985, p. 15). Utilizing a real options strategy allows businesses to capture the value of managerial flexibility in adapting decisions in response to unexpected market developments. When used as a conceptual tool, real options allow management to characterize and communicate the strategic value of an investment project (Bjerksund, P. and S. Ekern 1990). Traditional methods (e.g. net present value, discounted cash flow) fail to accurately capture the economic value of investments in an environment of widespread uncertainty and rapid change. Using real options theory, managers can more effectively target crucial opportunities to redeploy, delay, modify, or even abandon capital-intensive projects...
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...------------------------------------------------- Chapter 20 Decision Trees, Real Options, and Other Capital Budgeting Topics ------------------------------------------------- ANSWERS TO END-OF-CHAPTER QUESTIONS 20-1 a. Real options occur when managers can influence the size and risk of a project’s cash flows by taking different actions during the project’s life. They are referred to as real options because they deal with real as opposed to financial assets. They are also called managerial options because they give opportunities to managers to respond to changing market conditions. Sometimes they are called strategic options because they often deal with strategic issues. Finally, they are also called embedded options because they are a part of another project. b. Investment timing options give companies the option to delay a project rather than implement it immediately. This option to wait allows a company to reduce the uncertainty of market conditions before it decides to implement the project. Growth options allow a company to expand if market demand is higher than expected. This includes the opportunity to expand into different geographic markets and the opportunity to introduce complementary or second-generation products. It also includes the option (an abandonment option) to abandon a project if market conditions deteriorate too much. Flexibility options allow a company to have flexibility in their operations, such as the flexibility...
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...economics, it measures the excess or shortfall of cash flows, in present value terms, once financing charges are met. OPTION PRICING: The buyer of a call option gets the right to buy the underlying the underlying asset at affixed price, where as the buyer of a put option obtains the right to sell the underlying asset at a fixed price. Alternatives to the binomial model In the binomial option pricing model, the underlying asset and risk free lending or borrowing are combined to create a portfolio that had the same cash flows as the option being valued; we called this portfolio the replicating portfolio. Although the binomial model provides the intuitive feel for the determinants of the option value, it requires a large number of inputs in terms of expected future prices at each node. As we can make time periods shorter in the binomial model, we can make assumptions about asset prices. We can assume that price changes becomes smaller as time periods approaches zero leading to continuous price process. THE BLACK – SCHOLES MODEL: When the price process is continuous, that is price changes become smaller as time period gets shorter, the binomial model for pricing options converges on the Black – Scholes model. The model allows us to estimate the value of any option using a small number of inputs, and it has shown to be remarkably robust in valuing many listed options. The Black-Scholes model is used to calculate a theoretical call price (ignoring...
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...Memorandum: ------------------------------------------------- Subject : Risk and Option Analysis of Proposed Venture Introduction With reference to the company’s new announced project about exploring the meeting market of Country A, we have some points which I think would be useful to consider before undertaking the project. Background: Rephrasing the whole project definition and scope as you provided in the annual presentation, our company is going to explore the Moroccan market. Our company, Xava Coffee and Confectionary is undoubtedly among the best companies of the country. Being a multinational company having our operations in France, Germany and North America, we are fully equipped with the abilities to explore new markets. We are already exporting a significant amount of coffee to the emerging markets such as China and India. Now the company is thinking to set up a production plant in Country A to market the coffee in Country A market as well as explore from there to the Mediterranean countries and the Middle East. The project appears to be financially viable as it has reasonable IRR and satisfactory NPV however; the project would carry significant risks. Key Points of proposed project: Being a multinational company, it is our long term benefit to explore and develop new markets. We have a unique advantage of production facilities within and outside our border with strong international market links. We have customers in three continents of the...
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...The Importance of Energy Derivative Training It is common for management at energy companies to recognize the necessity of directing significant resources to develop systems that monitor and manage the complex risks experienced in today’s energy markets. Yet when it comes to developing its human capital, arguably the more crucial component dealing with these same complex risks, the commitment is all too often diffuse or misdirected. This situation follows on from some misperceptions about who benefits from training and what type and level of materials match the needs of various candidates. One misguided view is: “hire expert dealers and everyone else will learn from them”. Undoubtedly a great deal of useful knowledge can be acquired by working around veteran traders and other experienced professionals. The trouble with this learning approach is in the major gaps it leaves in the employee’s knowledge base. The real concern is that, more often than not, the employees and even their supervisors can remain unaware of these deficiencies. A substantial risk to an enterprise follows from this: People don’t know what they don’t know! It is also the biggest challenge in identifying an organization’s specific needs for energy risk training. It applies to both individuals and collective groups; to both new hires and seasoned veterans. It is what they don’t know that can really hurt an enterprise. A Lot to Learn Repeatedly over the last decade...
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...I. Overview of the Hong Kong Capital Market Located in the heart of Asia, Hong Kong positioned itself to be a major international financial center of the continent. Its capital market is comprised of integrated network of institutions and markets which provide a wide range of products and services to local and international customers and investors. Hong Kong’s financial markets are characterized by a high degree of liquidity and operate under effective and transparent regulations, which meet international standards. The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) abides by the principle of keeping intervention into the way in which the market operates to a minimum and has endeavoured to provide a favorable environment in which business operates. Its policy of low and simple taxation allows maximum room for business initiatives and innovation. There is a strong emphasis on the rule of law and fair market. There are no barriers of access to the market by foreign businesses and no restrictions on capital flows into and out of Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s privileged location in the Northeast Asia, on the other hand, makes it a gateway to China. Moreover, Hong Kong is situated at appropriate time zones that allow 24-hour continuous trading of foreign exchange and gold when the two markets in New York and London are closed. II. Financial Players and Intermediaries in Hong Kong Preview:A closer look at the financial markets As of July 2010, there were...
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.............. 8 2.1 FORWARDS...............................................................................................................................8 Settlement of forward contracts ............................................................................................................9 Default risk in forward contracts .........................................................................................................10 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.2 2.3 FUTURES................................................................................................................................11 O PTIONS................................................................................................................................12 Call option...
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.............. 8 2.1 FORWARDS...............................................................................................................................8 Settlement of forward contracts ............................................................................................................9 Default risk in forward contracts .........................................................................................................10 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.2 2.3 FUTURES................................................................................................................................11 O PTIONS................................................................................................................................12 Call option...
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...presentation around the following questions. a. List the three types of assets that companies own. Answer: Assets-in-place, growth options, and nonoperating, or financial, assets. b. What are assets-in-place? How can their value be estimated? Answer: Assets-in-place are tangible, such as buildings, machines, inventory. Usually they are expected to grow. They generate free cash flows. The PV of their expected future free cash flows, discounted at the WACC, is the value of operations. c. What are growth options? How can their value be estimated? Answer: Growth options are not tangible. They include R&D, such as at drug companies and genetic engineering companies, and building customer relationships, such as at amazon.com. Growth options are valued using option pricing techniques in Chapter 17. d. What are nonoperating assets? How can their value be estimated? Answer: Nonoperating assets are marketable securities and ownership of non-controlling interest in another company. The value of nonoperating assets usually is very close to figure that is reported on balance sheets. e. What is the total value of a corporation? Who has claims on this value? Answer: Total corporate value is sum of value of operations, value of nonoperating assets, and value of growth options. (No examples in this chapter have a growth option-- this is deferred until chapter 17)....
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...Disclaimer This PDF is a section of the Unilever Annual Report & Accounts and Form 20-F 2003 provided to Unilever's shareholders. It does not contain sufficient information to allow a full understanding of the results of the Unilever Group and the state of affairs of Unilever N.V., Unilever PLC or the Unilever Group. For further information the Unilever Annual Report & Accounts and Form 20-F 2003 should be consulted. Certain sections of the Unilever Annual Report & Accounts and Form 20-F 2003 have been audited. Sections that have been audited are set out on pages 73 to 125, 131 to 147 and 149 to 150. The auditable part of the Directors' Remuneration report as set out on page 68 has also been audited. The maintenance and integrity of the Unilever website is the responsibility of the Directors; the work carried out by the auditors does not involve consideration of these matters. Accordingly, the auditors accept no responsibility for any changes that may have occurred to the financial statements since they were initially placed on the website. Legislation in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands governing the preparation and dissemination of financial statements may differ from legislation in other jurisdictions. Disclaimer Except where you are a shareholder, this material is provided for information purposes only and is not, in particular, intended to confer any legal rights on you. The Annual Report & Accounts and Form 20-F does not constitute an invitation to invest in Unilever...
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...To explain the roll cost, every day roughly one twentieth of VXX holdings in the near month futures contracts are sold and replaced with the same amount of next month futures. Most of the time, the near month future is at a lower value than the next month because investors tend to expect hell to break loose in the future, not tomorrow. For example, today, July expiration future is $20.21 and August expiration future is $21.69 so there is a 7.3% premium on August. Since every day we pay more to replace the futures contracts with new futures contracts, we are paying this roll cost. Futures prices change wildly every day but imagine If the futures values did not change for an entire month, you would lose 7% of your investment. If you don't know anything about it, that's an excellent reason not to own it. "Invest in what you know" is pretty universal investment advice. I'll do the same, copy and paste to my MS Word and then try to comprehend. To think that I averaged a 3.78 GPA and actually two 4.0s in my micro/macro economy & Global Economy, and to find that I need more time to remember and understand alll these, it's depressing. My mental judgment tells me that you know what you are saying. Thank you. (That still I´m not) you don´t need to be a PhD in Economics (even as having one can help): you DO need a lot of PATIENCE, you need a discipline of reading everyday A LOT about global economic & political news (discarding the garbage from real-value information), you...
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...Grade Details - All Questions | 1. | Question : | (TCO C) Blease Inc. has a capital budget of $625,000, and it wants to maintain a target capital structure of 60 percent debt and 40 percent equity. The company forecasts a net income of $475,000. If it follows the residual dividend policy, what is its forecasted dividend payout ratio? (a) 40.61% (b) 42.75% (c) 45.00% (d) 47.37% (e) 49.74% | | | | Instructor Explanation: | Answer is: d Text: pp. 570-572 - Residual Dividends, Chapter 14 Capital budget $625,000 Equity ratio 40% Net income (NI) $475,000 Dividends paid = NI - (Equity ratio)(Capital budget) $225,000 Dividend payout ratio = Dividends paid/NI 47.37% | | | | Points Received: | 10 of 10 | | Comments: | | | | 2. | Question : | (TCO F) Chocolate Factory's convertible debentures were issued at their $1,000 par value in 2009. At any time prior to maturity on February 1, 2029, a debenture holder can exchange a bond for 25 shares of common stock. What is the conversion price, Pc? (a) $40.00 (b) $42.00 (c) $44.10 (d) $46.31 (e) $48.62 | | | | Instructor Explanation: | Answer is: a Chapter 19: pp. 770-774 Par value: $1,000.00 Conversion ratio: 25.00 Conversion price = Par value/Conversion ratio = $40.00 | | | | Points Received: | 10 of 10 | | Comments: | | | | 3. | Question : | (TCO B) Ang Enterprises has a levered beta of 1.10, its capital structure consists of 40 percent debt...
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...|15. |Binomial valuation You have an option to purchase all of the assets of the Overland Railroad for $2.5 billion. The option expires| | |in nine months. You estimate Overland's current (month 0) present value (PV) as $2.7 billion. Overland generates after-tax free | | |cash flow (FCF) of $50 million at the end of each quarter (i.e., at the end of each three-month period). If you exercise your | | |option at the start of the quarter, that quarter's cash flow is paid out to you. If you do not exercise, the cash flow goes to | | |Overland's current owners. | | |In each quarter, Overland's PV either increases by 10% or decreases by 9.09%. This PV includes the quarterly FCF of $50 million. | | |After the $50 million is paid out, PV drops by $50 million. Thus the binomial tree for the first quarter is (figures in | | |millions): | | |[pic] | | |The risk-free interest rate is 2% per quarter. | | |Build a binomial tree for Overland, with one up or down change for each three-month period (three steps...
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...An analysis of the results of For the year ended 2nd April 2006 Report devised and prepared by Duncan Williamson www.duncanwil.co.uk May, June and July 2006 3rd Edition Marks and Spencer Analysis Introduction This article concerns Marks and Spencer and came about following the publication of their annual financial results. There is nothing extraordinary about the results apart from two things! • • They were very big news in the business and ordinary press They have been prepared under International Financial Reporting Standards rather than under UK Financial Reporting Standards The second point took me a little by surprise for the simple reason that it didn’t seem to cause a fuss. I expected a few more explanations by accountants and analysts over the restatement of 2005’s results and the potential impact on 2005 and 2006 and beyond of the application of IFRS. Of course, M&S published comparative figures for the IFRS based results for the latest year and they restated the previous year as they should. However, I seem to be the only person who is worried or concerned or bothered in the slightest about the potential for smoke and mirrors lying behind some or all of what was revealed. Why am I worried? Well, M&S is still trying to work its way out of a fairly tough trading period and coming at the end of the transition to IFRS I wanted to hear what analysts thought about what I was worried about. This is the second edition of this article and the final section...
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...Unit 6 Assignment GB550: Financial Management Alberto Silveira Kaplan University Prof: Ana Machuca April 11, 2011 Chapter 13: Problem 13-5: How is it possible for an employee stock option to be valuable even if the firm's stock price fails to meet shareholders' expectations? Solution: Employees are given the option of buying stocks at a specified time at a specified price without investing any money. For example, if the price of stock is $10 today and the employee is given the option to buy 1000 shares at the price of $10 per share two years from now. If the stock price increases to $12 per share in two years, then the employee will gain $2,000 ($2 x 1000) from these stock options. Let’s say that the expected capital appreciation was 20%, the value of the stock would have increased to $14.4 per stock. Even though the stock price fell short of the expected value, it still created additional income of $2,000 for the employee. The options pay off if, at the time of option expiration, the stock price is higher than the option’s strike price, even if the company failed to meet shareholders’ expectations. Chapter 15: Problem 15-8: The Rivoli Company has no outstanding debt and its financial position is given with the following data: Assets (book=market) $3,000,000 EBIT $500,000 Cost of equity, rs 10% Stock price, P0 $15 Shares outstanding n0 200,000 Tax rate, T (federal plus...
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