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KRIZA FINANCIARE: NGJARJET KRYESORE, SHKAQET DHE PERGJEGJESITE

Punuan: Arisa LLESHI Universiteti LUARASI Fakulteti Ekonomik Finance-Banke Pranuan: Prof. Admir RAMADANI, CFA Prof. Julinda KLLAPI, Msc Cejrolina BARDHI Universiteti LUARASI Fakulteti Ekonomik Finance-Banke

Tirane, Shkurt 2015

“Rritja e cmimeve te shtepive dhe lehtesimi kredidhenies ishte pozitive per bleresit e rinj te shtepiave, duke perfshire ketu spekulatoret, sepse ata pane pothuajse nje perfitim te menjehershem ne cmime. Ishte pozitive per komisioneret e Hipotekave (Mortgage Broker); Ata perfituan komisione fillestare te medha. Ishte mire per Agjensite e Rating-ut ; Ata paten nje biznes te shkelqyer. Dhe ishte mire per Bankat e Investimit, sepse ata po fitonin komisione te medha nga procesi Securitization. Sistemi lulezoi ne kete drejtim per shume vite” “Robert Wescott, President i Keybridge Research”

2 © A.LL & C.B “Kriza Financiare: Ngjarjet kryesore, Shkaqet, dhe Pergjegjesite”, Shkurt 2015

Abstrakti Kriza Fiananciare e vitit 2008 – 2009, si nje nga temat me te diskutuara ditet e sotme, nga e cila u mesua se sistemi financiar i diteve te sotme nuk eshte aspak i sigurte, se ka shume vend per permiresim ne rregullimin qe duhet t’i behet tregut financiar, se per vendimet qe merren per Politiken Monetare dhe rregullimin e sistemit financiar duhet patur shume kujdes, jo vetem kjo, por tregjet ne vetvete dhe te integruara me njera tjetren duhen vezhguar me kujdes dhe duhen ndermarre rregullimet e nevojshme qe te parandalohen momente krizash te tilla. Ky punim do te trajtoje shkaqet e lindjes se krizes financiare, ku mund te permendim ketu pakujdesine e dhenies se huave, Fllucka e shtepive, leva financiare e madhe, Disbalancat e rrjedhave financiare Globale, Procesi Securitization, Mungesa e Transparences dhe kontabilizimi i kolateraleve, vleresimi i dhene nga Agjensite e Rating-ut, kontabilizimi Market-to-Market, legjislacioni derregullues, sistemi i bankingut ne hije, zerat jashte bilancit, deshtimi i menaxhimit te riskut, inovacioni financiar, Modelet kompjuterike jo te mira, Legjislacion i copezuar i Qeverise Federale, CDS-s, Derivativet e tregetuar ne OTC etj. Pervec ketyre do te trajtohen disa nga faktet historike zinxhir te krizes dhe se cfare u be per te rimekembur ekonomine nga Qeveria Federale e USA-s. Te gjitha keto jane pergjigje te pyetjeve qe une mendoj se jane kritike per te kuptuar krizen Financiare 2008-2009, Cfare Ndodhi? Pse ? dhe Si doli ekonomia USA-s dhe ajo boterore nga kjo krize financiare?! Zhvillimi Ne fund te viteve 2000 USA, ne fakt bota perjetoi krizen me te rende financiare qe nga viti 1930 ne vitet e Depresionit te Madh. Ne mes te Marsit 2009 , Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ra me 53.81 perqind (Figura 1) ne me pak se 6 muaj brenda vitit, nderkohe qe ne periudhen e Depresionit te Madh renia shenoi 49 perqind. Figura 12

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Financial Institutions Management: A Risk management Approach, Introduction, fq.24 Burimi: Financeyahoo.com/DJIA

3 © A.LL & C.B “Kriza Financiare: Ngjarjet kryesore, Shkaqet, dhe Pergjegjesite”, Shkurt 2015

Marrja e kolateraleve si pasoje e mospagimit te huase hipotekore nga ana huamarresve arriti shenjuesin me te larte ne vitin 2008 ku 1 ne 45 shtepia (2.8 milione prona)3 u gjenden perballe pamundesise per te paguar huane. Industria e bankave te Investimit u perballen me deshtim, shkrirje apo perthithje nga bankat me te fuqishme. Te gjitha bankat u ndodhen perballe ketij fakti pervec dy bankave, Goldman Sachs dhe Morgan Stanley, keto dy te fundit u kthyen ne banka tregtare. AIG nje nga firmat me te medha te sigurimit arriti te mbijetonte ne treg vetem per shkak te asistences financiare qe Qeveria Federale i dha per te mos e lene AIG-ne te binte ne kolaps. Citigroup nje nga bankat me gjigande te Bankave Tregtare kerkoi nje garanci te supermasive nga ana e Qeverise Federale kundrejt humbjeve dhe u kerkoi nje injektim parash qe te parandalonte falimentimin. Tre kompanite e makinave me te medha, Chrysler, General Motor, Ford kerkuan ndihme financiare per te parandaluar deshtimin. Ne tetor te vitit 2009, norma e papunesise arriti vleren 10 perqind, norma me e larte qe nga 1983-shi. Shenja te problemeve shqetesuese ne ekonomine e USA-s ne fillim linden ne mes-fund te vitit 2006 dhe ne fillim-mes te fitit 2007 kur cmimet e shtepiave u rriten me hop te fuqishem dhe moskthimi nga kredite e SubPrime Mortgages filluan te ndikonin ne industrine e kredise me Hipoteke, me pas edhe ne sektore te tjere te ekonomise. Kredite Hipotekore me probleme, sidomos ne SubPrime Mortgages u fryne ne tremujorin e fundit te vitit 2006 deri ne 2008-en ku individet qe nuk e perballonin dot kredine u munduan shume qe te blinin shtepi dhe te merrnin kredi por me vone u gjenden perballe pamundesise per te shlyer kredine. Nga korriku 2006 deri korrik 2007 mbylljet e Kredive hipotekore per shkak mospageses arriten ne nivele 93%4 dhe ne nga gushti 2007 deri ne 2008 u moren nga banka 936’439 shtepia. Si shkak i mospageses dhe pasi banka mori ne pronesi keto kolaterale Mortgage Backed Securities filluan te shenonin humbje te medha. Keto kredi te shoqeruara me nje kontrate qe te jep te drejten e marrjes se kolateralit ne nje moment te dyte, (Securitized Loans) dhe Kredia Hipotekore Subprime e shoqeruar me nje kontrate qe te jep te drejten e marrjes se kolateralit ne nje moment te dyte(Securitized Subprime mortgage loans), ishin rrenja e shkakut kryesor te rritjes se borxhit ne tregun e shtepive dhe me pas ne dobesimin e ekonomise USA-s. Humbjet nga renia ne vlere e Subbprime Mortgage dhe letrave me vlere te mbeshtetura ne keto kolaterale huash arriten 400 milion Dollare gjate gjithe vitit 2007. Citigroup ,Merrill Lynch dhe Morgan Stanley shpenzuan 40 mln dollare si shkak i huave me kolateral. Banka e Amerikes shpenzoi 3 milion dollare , UBS securities paten humbje 1.2 mln Dollare, Lehman Brothers humben 52 milion Dollare, te gjitha kto ngaqe ata u ekspozuan shume ne investimet ne Subprime Mortgage apo Asset Backed Securities. Nje shembull i humbjeve te medha nga SubPrime Loans ishte Banka e Investimit Bear Stearns, e cila ne veren e 2007-es, dy fonde te Bear Stearns vuajten nga humbjet ne investimet e SubPrime Loans, ne kete moment nderhyne J.P Morgan Chase dhe Qeveria Federale nderhyne per te mos cuar ne falimentim te Bear Stearns, banka e peste me e madhe e USA-s, por ne perthithje te saj nga J.P Morgan ne vitin 2008. Ne pranvere te 2008-es Fed mori disa hapa te rendesishem. Se pari, Fed per here te pare i dha borxh bankave te Investimit te Wall Street, per tre ditet e para moren mesatarisht $ 31.3 miliard5. Se dyti, Fed nje te diel te marsit ne 2008 shkurtoi normat e interesit drastikisht. Kjo e ndihmoi situaten pasi
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Financial Institutions Management: A Risk management Approach, Introduction, fq.25 Financial Institutions Management: A Risk management Approach, Introduction, fq.26 5 Financial Institutions Management: A Risk management Approach, Introduction, fq.26

4 © A.LL & C.B “Kriza Financiare: Ngjarjet kryesore, Shkaqet, dhe Pergjegjesite”, Shkurt 2015

borxhi ne treg filloi te rifinancohej me normen baze te re te interesit te vendosur nga Fed. Shtatori i 2008-es shenoi nje kthese vendimtare ne ate moment te krizes. Pas falimentimeve dhe perthithjeve te bankave me te fuqishme, tregjet financiare ngrine dhe bankat ndalen se dhenuri kredi njera tjetres pervec rasteve kur norma interesit ishte teper e madhe. LIBOR per huate nderbankare Overnight u dyfishua sic shikohet ne figuren 2.Zakonisht normat e interesit per huate nderbankare jane te uleta, kjo per shkak te besimit qe kane bankat tek njera tjetra, pasi i perdorin per te shmangur riskun e likuiditetit, por ne ate moment besimi qe banka do ta ktheje kredine nuk ekzistonte. Figura 26

Meqe bankat nuk ishin te gatshme te jepnin borxh njera tjetres tregu pothuajse ngriu, keshtu qe u hartua nje plan shpetimi nga ana e Fed, e cila investoi 180 miliard dollare amerikane. Gjithashtu ne 3 tetor 2008 u firmos ng Presidenti Bush nje plan shpetimi me vlere 700 miliard Dollare Amerikane7, ku u krijua Troubled Asset Rescue Program (TARP), Programi i shpetimit per asetet me probleme. Thesari Amerikan bleu Huate Hipotekore me probleme dhe letra te tjera me vlere me probleme nga institucione te tjera financiare. Gjithashtu u rrit niveli i sigurimit te depozitave per Bankat ekzistuese nga $100 000 ne $250 000. Nderkohe ne bote kriza u perhap sa hap e mbyll syte. Ne fillim te tetorit 2008 ne Gjermani Hyper Real Estate, banka e dyte me e madhe komerciale per dhenien e kredive hipotekore, u nxorr nga balta nga qeveria Gjermane pas kerkeses se saj per shpetim. Ne Britenine e Madhe, Bradford & Bringley rritit sigurimin e nivelit te depozitave nga 62 2200 ne 88 890 Dollare per llogari. Irlanda garantoi depozitat dhe borxhet e gjashte bankave me te medha ne vend. Islanda shpetoi banken e trete me te madhe ne vend me vlere 860 milione Dollare duke blere 75% te aksioneve te saj. Bankat Qendrore te Hollandes, Belgjikes, Luksemburgut rane ne dakort per te injektuar 16.37 miliard Dollare ne Banken Fortis NV. India doli ne mbrojtje te Bankes ICICI duke i premtuar se do ti pomponte para. Gjithashtu pati shkurtime te normave te interesit ne Hong Kong, Japoni, UK, ECB. Normat e Fondeve te Fed arrijne normen me te ulet qe nge 1940-en. Figura 38

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Burimi: Historical LIBOR Rates Chart | MacroTrends Financial Institutions Management: A Risk management Approach, Introduction, fq.27 8 Burimi: research.stlouisfed.org

5 © A.LL & C.B “Kriza Financiare: Ngjarjet kryesore, Shkaqet, dhe Pergjegjesite”, Shkurt 2015

Figura 3 Edhe per Kinen kjo qe nje periudhe qe i uli hovin e rritjes, nga 10.1% te 2Q ne 0.9% te 3Q te vitit 2008. Kjo ishte hera e pare qe nga 2002-shi qe Kina kishte keto ritme rritjeje. Ne fund te Tetorit kriza globale goditi edhe Gjirin Persik dhe Banken Qendrore te Kuvaitit ku nje banke u shpetua nga banka qendrore e Gjirit Persik. Por pervec ketij rasti Gjiri Persik ishte i vetmi qe ishte imun ndaj krizes globale. Gjithsesi renia pikiate e e cmimeve te naftes me 50% nga Korriku ne Gusht i la keto zona te lenduara. Cmimi naftes qe per barrele ishte 142 Dollar ra ne 40 Dollare per barrele. Nese do flasim per GDP e USA mund te themi qe gjate 2008-2009 pati nje renie te dukshme, por me pas me planin e rekuperimit filloi te rritet ngadale, sic shihet ne grafikun 49.

Figura 4 Pasi folem per ngjarjet se cfare ndodhi dhe cfare u be nga qeveria Amerikane le te shohim nje analize mbi ate cka u be shkak i kesaj Krize Financiare. Per te shpjeguar gjithcka kam kuptuar rreth krizes, me aq njohuri kam mbi sistemin financiar apo aq sa kam lexuar mbi te, mund te them zanafilla e te gjithe borxhit te tregut erdhi nga disbalanca e sektorit te tregut te shtepive. Fllucka e krijuar ne vitin 2000 qe shpertheu pas 6 vjetesh u ushqye nga ulja e normave te interesit ne rekordet me te uleta ne histori, dhenia e huave me nje konkurrence agresive duke iu dhene individeve te varfer qe nuk benin dot sherbimin e huase, si dhe ekspozimi ne nje aktivitet spekulativ te investimeve ne menyre jo racionale. Ne kete periudhe u
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Burimi: research.stlouisfed.org

6 © A.LL & C.B “Kriza Financiare: Ngjarjet kryesore, Shkaqet, dhe Pergjegjesite”, Shkurt 2015

rriten cmimet e shtepive sidomos ne korrik te vitit 2006 arriti piku i cmimeve me te larta sipas indeksit te kompozuar nga 20 shtepi te S&P/ Case Shiller ashtu sic paraqitet ne figuren 5, dhe ne vitin 2009 cmimet e shtepiave paten nje renie drastike me 40%10.

Figura 511 Nje tjeter gabim qe bene huadhenesit eshte qe kolaterali i pranuar si garanci ishte 50 - 98 %12 e vleres se huase si dhe kompanite huadhenese perdornin nje leve financiare riskoze dhe te pa mbrojtur. Ata e nencmuan riskun qe preku tregun e pasurive te paluajtshme. Sot keto kompani le te themi e kane shmanguar ate leve financiare riskoze qe deri dje perdornin. Ne kohen e krizes i gjithe tregu i strukturuar i produktit drejtohej kryesisht nga inxhinieret financiare. Analistet e kredive hipotekore filluan te benin marreveshje te reja per te dhene kredi, ku u perdoren kritere nenvleresuese, Subprime Loans. Nderkohe, Inxhinieria Financiare perdori Comercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) te cilat nuk rregulloheshin nga ligji, Qeveria Federale kishte 15 vjet 13 qe nuk merrej me rregullimin e tregut dmth Qeveria e Laissez Faire e se djeshmes ishte ajo qe i dha zgjidhjen e fundit te borxhit te krijuar. Ne bilancin e bankave zeri i huave hipotekore kishte krijuar nje portofol te madh i cili u perdor si baze ku te mbeshteteshin letrat me vlere te krijuara CMBS-te. I gjithe portofoli i huave hipotekore iu kalua Special Purpose Vehicles(SPV-ve), pra entiteteve me nje funksion te vecante e cila ka nje strukture te vecante asetesh/ detyrimesh dhe nje forme ligjore te vecante qe e ben ate t’i kete detyrimet e siguruara edhe pse kompania meme falimenton. Bankat me portofole te Huave hipotekore i shiten tek SPV-te dhe i hoqen keto hua nga zerat e bilanceve. Vete SPV-ja emetoi CMBS-te dhe i nxorri ne treg ku investitoret i blinin keto letra me vlere dhe merrnin kupon mbi te. Nga portofoli i huave ata merrnin nje interes periodik qe vinte nga shlyerja e huase, kete interes ata e perdornin per te paguar kuponin ndaj investitoreve. I gjithe portofoli ndahej ne transhe (fasha) te cilat kishin disa karakteristika kryesore ne varesi te riskut qe mbanin. Ne vitin 2006 Security Asset Investment Loan (SAIL) emetoi CMBS & ABS me ndarje transhesh

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CFA Institute 2009, Ch. Assessing Real Estate Markets: Pothole or Sinkhole? Earl Webb Capital Markets, Jones Lang LaSalle Americas, Inc. Chicago. Page.55 11 Moody’s Economy.com 12 CFA Institute 2009, Ch. Assessing Real Estate Markets: Pothole or Sinkhole? Earl Webb Capital Markets, Jones Lang LaSalle Americas, Inc. Chicago. Page.54 13 CFA Institute 2009, Ch. Assessing Real Estate Markets: Pothole or Sinkhole? Earl Webb Capital Markets, Jones Lang LaSalle Americas, Inc. Chicago. Page.55

7 © A.LL & C.B “Kriza Financiare: Ngjarjet kryesore, Shkaqet, dhe Pergjegjesite”, Shkurt 2015

sipas vleresimit te agjensive te Rating-ut, perkatesisht AAA- me vjetersi te barabarte, 83.25%14 te kolateralit, AA- vjetersi e pabarabarte, 8.2 % e kolateralit, A- vjetersi e pabarabarte, 4.1% e kolateralit, BBB- Vjetersi e pabarabarte, 2.8% e kolateralit. Cdo transh kishte rikun e moskthimit specifik dhe investitoret qe investonin ne transhin AAA merrnin te ardhuren e kuponit, nga interesi qe SAIL merrte nga huamarresit e Huave Hipotekore. Nje nga faktoret qe kontribuoi ne krizen e kreditit ishte tregu i CMBS, ABS (Asset Backed Securities), ne keto 10 vitet e fundit i kushtoi shume te gjithe individeve. Tregetimi i tyre morri hov galopant nga mesi 2000 deri ne 2007. Ngerci i tmerrshem i likuiditetit ne fillim te viteve 2000 i beri institucionet financiare qe te krijonin keto produkte te inxhinierise financiare si CMBS, ABS te cilat nuk qene transparente per publikun. Me e bukura nga te gjitha eshte qe Agjensite e Rating-ut i vleresonin me Triple-A ne menyre qe investitoret te besonin se investimi ne ato produkte ia vlente dhe nuk kishte aspak risk krediti, nderkohe qe kjo gje e drejtoi krizen ne tregun e Instrumentave Financiare. Pra ngerci qe zuri tregun e shtepive dhe bankave (institucioneve huadhenese), me krijimin e ketyre letrave me vlere te mbeshtetura ne kolaterale apo asete beri qe edhe tregu i instrumentave financiare te ndrydhej. Ne figuren 315 nga viti 2000-2007 shohim nje rritje ne historine e emetimit te CMBS dhe nje renie super drastike ne vitin 2008.

Ekonomia Amerikane ne ate periudhe u shoqerua me nje renie ne nivelin e punesimit dhe kjo e beri shume here me te veshtire situaten. Ne qofte se do shikohet Figura 416 mund te shihet se punesimi arriti renie te madhe ne nje nga nivelet me te larta krahasuar me krizat e viteve 74’,81’,90’,01’.

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Financial Analysis Journal Vol. 66, nr.5 2010 CFA Institute, ch. The risk of Tranches created from Mortgages. John Hull and Alan White. Page 54
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CFA Institute 2009, Ch. Assessing Real Estate Markets: Pothole or Sinkhole? Earl Webb Capital Markets, Jones Lang LaSalle Americas, Inc. Chicago. Page.57 16 CFA Institute 2009, Ch. Assessing Real Estate Markets: Pothole or Sinkhole? Earl Webb Capital Markets, Jones Lang LaSalle Americas, Inc. Chicago. Page.57

8 © A.LL & C.B “Kriza Financiare: Ngjarjet kryesore, Shkaqet, dhe Pergjegjesite”, Shkurt 2015

Se fundmi pasi u diskutuan ngjarjet kryesore te krizes, rrjedha e saj, plani shpetimit dhe shkaqet ndodhjes, mund te themi qe disa konkluzione mund te nxirren nga sa u analizua me siper. Ajo cka mund te themi eshte qe kriza financiare ishte nje ngjarje qe i sjell ndermend cdo investitori, cdo CEO te institucioneve financiare, cdo menaxheri risku, cdo analisti kredie, cdo brokeri, cdo perfaqesuesi nga Thesari Fed, apo edhe vete kreut te shtetit qe te marrin vendimet qe marrin te jene te kujdeshme dhe te matshme, mos te veprojne pa menduar mire dhe te perdorin me kujdes sinjalet e tregut dhe cdo sinjal tjeter, ne menyre qe te zbusin situatat e krijuara si kjo e krizave financiare. Nuk po them qe ne te mund te parashikojme nje krize, kjo sepse kur ndodhesh perballe situatave me parashikim dhe kur hyn ne loje probabiliteti mund te themi qe vendimet qe ne marrim jane shume te veshtira. Por te pakten mos te veprojme ne baze te anshmerive. Sot gjurmet e krizes vazhdojne dhe ndihen packa se eshte rimekembur situata, kjo per shkak te Politikave Monetare qe vende te ndryshme aplikojne, apo per shkak te ngjarjeve gjeopolitike qe frenojne bashkepunimin ekonomik, bashkepunimin mes tregjeve nderkombetar. Ajo cka eshte me rendesi per tu thene eshte qe treguesi i rritjes ekonomike qe duhet pare eshte Prodhimi i Brendshem Bruto. Nese nuk ka rritje te GDP, rrjedhimisht aktiviteti ekonomik i vendit ngelet ne vend. Duke u nisur nga ky postulat mund te them qe borxhi i trasheguar nga kriza financiare 2008-2009 e ben ekonomine te ngelet ne vend, per shkak se konsumi nuk zhvillohet kjo per shkak te mos drejtimit te te ardhurave qe merren ne konsum, por qe ato shkojne per te sherbyer borxhin, pra thjesht leviz para, por jo qe krijohet vlere, jo investim, nuk ka konsum. Gjithashtu edhe fluktuacionet e kurseve te kembimit shkaktojne deficit ne bilancin tregtar. Prandaj edhe vete kriza financiare le gjurme te renda si bronkopneumenia ne mushkerite e njeriut.

9 © A.LL & C.B “Kriza Financiare: Ngjarjet kryesore, Shkaqet, dhe Pergjegjesite”, Shkurt 2015

10 © A.LL & C.B “Kriza Financiare: Ngjarjet kryesore, Shkaqet, dhe Pergjegjesite”, Shkurt 2015

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