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It was a relatively quiet year on the glide path front—at least as far as major equity/fixed-income changes go. It appears likely that the series stung by poor asset allocation in 2008’s market crash have already implemented subsequent changes. Thus, there is only minimal difference in the series’ 2010 and 2011 asset allocations.
Target allocations in further detail by target year, illustrating trends Morningstar has observed for the past several years. Longer-dated funds from target-date 2040 onward (several firms now offer
2060 funds) show little substantive difference in their average equity allocation, which ranges from 87% to 92%. The range of allocations in long-dated funds look wider for many of the subsequent target years due to the Invesco series’ unusual structure, which involves levering up its bond holdings. Invesco doesn’t offer a 2055 fund, so the range of equity allocations extends from 85% to 100%. Certainly, there is a meaningful difference in equity risk between these allocation points, but it’s not extreme. Even at 85% in stocks, investors have heavy exposure to equities, with many years left to ride out periodic short-term losses.

Such a vast gap reflects the divergent philosophies regarding how long investors are expected to remain invested in target-date funds (that is, should they remain invested after they enter retirement or reallocate into other vehicles when they retire) and thus the appropriate weighting in stocks when they retire. These data once again confirm that philosophical and risk-management differences among target-date series are most pointed in the years leading up to the retirement date. The problem is that many investors in target-date funds buy in during their twenties or thirties—precisely when the differences among series are least varied. Thus the burden is high on target-date fund providers, plan sponsors,

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