...The Long-Term Labor Market Consequences of Graduating from College in a Bad Economy* Lisa B. Kahn Yale School of Management First Draft: March, 2003 Current Draft: August 13, 2009 Abstract This paper studies the labor market experiences of white male college graduates as a function of economic conditions at time of college graduation. I use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth whose respondents graduated from college between 1979 and 1989. I estimate the e¤ects of both national and state economic conditions at time of college graduation on labor market outcomes for the …rst two decades of a career. Because timing and location of college graduation could potentially be a¤ected by economic conditions, I also instrument for the college unemployment rate using year of birth (state of residence at an early age for the state analysis). I …nd large, negative wage e¤ects to graduating in a worse economy which persist for the entire period studied. I also …nd that cohorts who graduate in worse national economies are in lower level occupations, have slightly higher tenure and higher educational attainment, I am grateful for helpful comments from George Baker, Dan Benjamin, James Heckman, Caroline Hoxby, Larry Katz, Kevin Lang, Fabian Lange, Steve Levitt, Derek Neal, Chris Nosko, Emily Oster, Yona Rubenstein, Hugo Sonnenschein, Mike Waldman and seminar participants at Harvard University, the University of Chicago, Yale University, and the Midwest Economic Association 2003...
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