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(2011-2012学年 第一学期) 开课院(系、部): 经济学院 课程序号: 0304 姓名:王丹平 授课班级: 08数理经济 08劳动经济 课程名称: 经济学专题研究 论文题目:中国“剩女”形成的原因以及实证分析 主讲教师: 龚关 课程类别: 专业选修课 论文得分(百分制): 注意:请在括号内打√ ( ( ( ( ( ) ) ) ) ) D D D D D 否 ( ( ( ( ( ) ) ) ) ) ( E E E E E ) ( ( ( ( ( ) ) ) ) )

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中国“剩女”形成的原因以及实证分析 提纲

姓 学 系 专

名: 号: 别: 业:

王丹平 2008115007 经济学院 数理经济学 龚关

指导老师:

目 录

一、引言························· ·························3 二、文献综述······················· ·······················4 (一)背景介绍······················ ······················4 (二) “剩女”为何剩下·················· ··················5 三、数据介绍·······················8 ······················ 四、模型介绍·······················9 ······················ 五、 思考不足······················· ······················ 10 六、 资料来源以及参考文献················· ················ 10

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一、引言
“既然爱情已经沦落成地球上的最后一件奢侈品,她能做的,就是拼死坚守这个珠光宝 气的橱窗。她是剩者,她终将成王。 ”这是青年作家落落 2011 年出版的小说《剩者为王》 (长 江文艺出版社 2011 年 1 月)的前期宣传语,而《剩者为王》也成为中国第一本将目光聚焦 在“剩女”生活上面的小说。最近几年来,相亲节目诸如‘非诚勿扰’、 ‘我们约会吧’以及 相关连续剧电影的流行也从另一侧面向我们传达着 “剩女” 在这个社会上的地位。 与此同时, 社会各个层级尤其是高收入女性的结婚年龄的增长, 结婚时间的延长也受到了社会极大的关 注。 “剩女”作为近些年来新出现的词汇,一直受人们的高度重视,一度成为网络以及社会 的热点话题,甚至 2006 年教育部发布的《中国语言生活状况汇报》把该词作词新词收录其 中。人们越来越关注“剩女” ,尤其是根据 2010 年第六次全国人口普查主要数据公报[1](第 1 号)中提供的数据,大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口中,男性人口为 686852572 人,占 51.27%;女性人口为 652872280 人,占 48.73%,为什么男性人口女性人 口多了三千万有余,却还是有这么多“剩女”的存在?究竟“剩女”是如何形成的,是由于 自然形成还是社会因素导致,却一直没有一个明确的答案。 笔者总结了 2005 年至 2009 年期间, 中国统计局所抽样调查的全国女性人口以及未婚女 性人口的数据(见表 1)并绘制了相关图表,从图表明,25 岁以上女性未婚比例逐年上升。 此外,由“嫁我网”2006 年发起的“中国结婚人群婚恋心理报告”中,笔者发现其余城市 女性结婚的平均年龄为 27.1 岁,而上海女性的平均结婚年龄则高达 28.4 岁,而到了 2008 年此项数据再次更新,上海女性的平均结婚年龄增长到 29.6 岁,远远高于国家限定结婚年 龄 20 岁以及国家倡导晚婚的年龄 23 岁。这也从另一侧面映射出中国女性结婚的推迟现象。 与此同时,笔者也猜测“剩女”的形成是否和城市之间的差别有关。另一方面笔者也同时注 意到,在我们大多数人的印象中,剩下的一般意味着不好的、差劲的、和一般有差别的。但 是这条标准在“剩女”上面却行不通。在社会上、 “剩女”大多数学位高、有修养、有财力 的高尖端女子,她们拥有很好的工作,宽裕的收入,甚至有房有车,也又想成家的打算,但 是由于各方面的原因,她们被剩了下来。根据一份高学历女青年婚恋观研究报告(周晓燕/ 周军 中国高学历女青年婚恋观研究——2007-2008 年调查报告) ,在 20 岁至 35 岁的拥有本 科、硕士以及博士学历的女性中,62.9%未婚,31.7%初婚,3.9%再婚,1.5%离异。笔者同 样猜测高学历也是成为“剩女”的条件之一。 以上仅仅是对剩女形成原因的猜测, 为了验证这些猜测, 本文使用 “中国家庭动态调查” 2008 年以及 2009 年两个年度的观测统计数据, 以尽可能准确规范的计量模型来说明近年来, 我国大龄单身女青年的形成原因,以及社会对于她们的影响。 本文主要分为以下几个部分: 上述引言部分提出本文所要研究的问题以及选题意义; 第 二部分文献综述。重点介绍“剩女”的背景,综述以前学者的研究成果,从经济学以及社会 学两个角度进行分析以及总结,并提出本文的新颖之处;第三部分是数据及描述统计。介绍 本文做实证分析所使用的数据,对样本做描述统计;第四部分是模型介绍及实证分析。介绍
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本文选择的模型,模型特点以及理论依据,分析实证结果;第五是全文总结。总结全文的研 究结果,指出不足。

表 1:全国女性人口以及未婚人口的统计数据
年份 2005 年 2006 年 2007 年 2008 年 2009 年 25~50 岁未婚女性占总未婚女性比 8.96% 9.28% 10.48% 11.67% 12.25%

图 1:15 岁以上未婚女性占全体女性比例

注:根据统计年鉴整理

二、文献综述
本节主要描述“剩女”的背景介绍以及综述以前学者对于“剩女”形成的原因的理解以 及认识。

(一)背景介绍
何为“剩女”? “剩女”简言之即为剩下的女人,就是说到达了一定的年龄却还是没有找到另一半或 者进入结婚殿堂的女子。 在网络上曾经风靡一句戏言, 25-27 岁未结婚的女子被称为初级 “剩 客”—— 剩斗士,而 28-31 岁则叫做中级“剩客”—— 必剩客,到了 32-36 岁还未结婚的 女性沦为高级“剩客”—— 斗战剩佛,最后 36 岁以上的女性升级为特级“剩客”—— 齐 天大剩。不仅在中国,国外“剩女”的现象也屡见不鲜。国外称呼“剩女”为“3S”女性, 即 Single、Seventies、Stuck。被解释为单身、生于七十年代、在婚姻上没有建树的女性。 也有学者对于“剩女”有比较深刻的定义,例如高修娟在《 “剩女难嫁”的社会学解读
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中》 (2011)把“剩女”囊括到了六个特征。简而概之分别是:一、 “剩女”是独身的没有 结婚的女性,没有固定男友的;二、 “剩女”作为大龄女青年,大多在 30 岁以上;三、 “剩 女”一般都有着傲人的自身条件;四、 “剩女”可能是被动剩下,也有可能是主动剩下;五、 “剩女”这一群体是处于流动以及变动状态的;六、 “剩女”是我国大龄女青年的主要组成 部分。 总而言之, “剩女”是一群有着高收入、高学位、高年龄的但是却在婚姻的战场上被卡 住的失意女性。

(二) “剩女”为何剩下?
由于对于婚姻理念中国以及外国的思想是完全不一致的,所以笔者将文献综述分为国外 研究以及国内研究加以考虑:

1、国外研究 国外的文献对于“剩女”的研究并不多,大多数着重于婚姻理论。1992 年诺贝尔经济 学奖获得者加里·贝克尔曾在《家庭论》以及《婚姻理论》两本文献中阐述男女双方之所以 结婚是由于结婚后一方可以提供给另一方单身时不得获取的东西,从而使自己的利益最大 化。而近年来外国文献也开始关注女性结婚年龄推迟的问题。Sarah Carmichael(2011)在 《结婚冲击:低等级发展国家的初婚年龄于配偶间的年龄差别》中分析了城市化、教育、家 庭类型对于初婚年龄的影响;Kenya 地域教育对结婚推迟的影响》Lawrence D. E. Ikamari, 《 ( 2005)中变量则研究的更加广泛,除了上述三点,还存在第一次性行为的年龄,宗教以及居 住地等等影响;此外 Barbara Von ELM 以及 Charles Hirschman(1979)也研究了同一问题。 但是笔者认为外国的研究不能够生搬硬套到中国的结婚模式中。首先对于外国人来说, 由于同居的合法性, 很多相爱的男女并不会选择踏入结婚殿堂, 而会选择在同居的状态下生 儿育女。 姑且不论我们对于婚姻的理解, 像宗教影响以及第一次性行为的年龄这种变量在中 国的婚姻模式中还是很少需要被考虑的。 总体来说中国是属于无信仰的国家, 我们对于婚姻 的干涉也不存在譬如天主教、 犹太教等宗教的束缚; 此外即使中国女性的观点相对于几十年 前开放了很多,但是婚前性行为在中国来说,尤其是女性还是少的。大多数女性还是会把第 一次性行为留在婚后。 与此同时根据中国的特点很多因素在外国的研究中也并没有涉及。 比如说中国婚姻中父 母家属对于另一方比较严格的要求,这在西方国家是很少出现的。 所以只通过现阶段外国关于女性结婚年龄推迟的实证研究很难解决中国 “剩女” 形成的 原因的问题。

2、国内研究 国内研究主要对于“剩女”的形成主要有社会学以及经济学两方面研究。

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(1)社会学分析 纵观以前学者对于“剩女”为何剩下的原因多于社会学解释。经过笔者总结,主要有以 下几点。

① 传统意识中封建思想的根深蒂固 中国作为四大古都之一, 很长时间都接受着封建思想的束缚以及制约。 “三从四德” 女子 , “无才就是德” 等等诸多思想都在历史文化中被无形的放大以及加深。 即使在新中国成立之 后,这种封建思想也时常会出现在生活中。比如说,相对于外国的女性,中国女性谈恋爱的 时间比较晚。 一般女性到了大学的年龄可能才开始谈恋爱, 也有的初婚其实就是初恋的情况。 中国女性天生的内敛再加上一些从小到大就从长辈处听到的婚恋经历导致了她们恋爱过晚, 甚至结婚过晚。 ,不少人都曾指出(周晓燕/周军,2010; 而更多被学者们所述及的是“斜坡理论” 许琳玲,2010;高修娟,2011)这一理论在“剩女”形成中的重要地位。所谓“斜坡理论” 就是指,大多数男性只接受在学历、收入、地位都低于自己的女性。这是中国青年从古至今 一直强调的婚姻观。如果反过来,就像过门女婿诸如的遭遇大家也都清楚。但是随着科技的 发展以及社会的愈加平衡,女性无论是在学历、收入还是在地位上都有赶超男性之势。在目 前的义务教育体系中,笔者通过相关数据的调查,发现女生的学习成绩往往远高于男生,每 年高校的新生入学中,女生的比例也从远远低于男生上升到了持平的阶段;在公司中,女性 高管的数量也明显增加。2011 年,全球五百强企业中,女性 CEO 占据 12 席,全球还有无数 女性担任着高级经理、总监等诸多重要职位;而在政界,中国省部级女性高官也超过 230 人。种种数据都表明女性地位的提升。进而男性选择配偶的范围有所减少。并且,对于现在 的社会上,笔者认识到,年长的男性在婚姻的市场山反而更具优势。正迎合那句俗语“男人 四十一枝花、女人四十豆腐渣。 ”男性等到三十岁甚至四十岁结婚都是合乎中国人传统的思 想的。但是换做女人,根深蒂固的封建思想很难容忍四十岁还是单身的女性。随着男性、女 性结婚年龄层次上面的不对等以及女性身份的提高, “剩女”问题不难解释。

② 女性个人要求的提高 正如笔者在上一点所叙述的,从不同的事实以及数据中证明女性的身份地位有所提升, 随着这种地位的提升,眼光也会有所提高。 根据我国宪法第 48 条、民法通则第 105 条、妇女权益保护法第 1 条和第 2 条的关于男 女平等的内容的规定, 我国女性受教育以及工作方面受到了极大的改善。 男女平等是我国的 基本国策。但是随着教育程度的提升、工作以及升职机会的增加、收入的上涨,女性自身的 择偶条件也越发苛刻起来。根据某家网站的调查显示,绝大多数工作在“北上广”以及二线 城市的高学历女性都希望找到与自己学历、收入相当或者高与自己的成功男性。与此同时, 迫于社会以及生活的压力,更多女性的要求中还叫入了“有房、有车、有存款”等等的硬性

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条件。这种“门当户对”的概念很大的局限了这些处于绝对优势的女性的择偶空间,而与此 同时,男性迫于社会的压力也不愿意选择这些女性。这种女性希望找比自己高的男性,而男 性希望需求比自己低的女性的思想形成了双向不选择的压力, 直接造成了这些高尖端女性成 为“剩女”(宁鸿,2008;刘廷华,2009;吴宏姣、陆卫群,2010) 。

③ 社会结构以及社会变迁的影响 现在我们处于一个信息几乎爆炸的时代,高技术、高科技让一切都变得可能起来。而这 对于“剩女”的形成也有一定影响。在读书时代,学生基本处于“两耳不闻窗外事,一心只 读圣贤书”的状态,学校、补习班、家的三点一线造成了学生没有什么机会去恋爱,这也就 形成了笔者之前所说中国的学生恋爱较晚的局面。与此同时,参加社团、课外活动大多数被 家长指认为影响学习的因素,也明令禁止。而到了远离校园的时候,参加工作后,大多数此 中国的城市以及乡村的发展有目 时 22 到 24 岁的女性发现和男性的私自接触也是少得可怜。 共睹, 而发展所造成的人口流动以及社会变迁也频繁的发生。 这种人口的频繁流动加速了人 们之间的陌生感。公司里面,很多同事几周可能就要出差,自己可能都不认识坐在旁边的男 性、 和公司同事里面的交流可能仅仅局限于日常工作的交流, 而每天辛苦以及烦累的工作所 带来的疲劳也让诸多大龄女性没有时间去寻找自己的另一半。 另一方面, 由于工作的高压力 以及高竞争力, “剩女”感到了对于生活中的麻木、厌倦以及安全感的丧失,这些都不利于 “剩女”脱剩。 (许琳玲,2010) 高度频繁的人口流动减少了大龄女青年恋爱的可能性。 通常男女双方的恋爱是经过长时 间的了解以及人事逐渐形成的。但是当由于社会的原因,缺少这种男女之间的联系的时候, 恋爱自然就不可能发生。根据相关调查显示,一般来说,成为“剩女”的女性都是要么工作 过于忙累, 要么交友圈过于狭小。 这些都是社会竞争以及人口流动所直接或者间接带来的影 响。 总而言之,剩女在婚姻中出现的问题是由于社会对女性的建构落后于女性自身的建构, 当剩女已经开始寻求新的婚姻家庭模式甚至突破家庭模式的时候, 社会建构还在男权社会的 传统上原地踏步。 (左雪松、夏道玉,2009)

(2)经济学分析 相对于学者们对“剩女”在社会学上的研究,经济学角度对于“剩女”的研究偏少而且 也注重理论方面的探讨,主要观点如下:

①“剩女经济学” 随着“剩女”这一词汇在网络以及生活中流行开来,另一词汇“剩女经济学”也逐渐走 入人们的视野。何为“剩女经济学”?如第一提出这个概念的雷晓宇(2009)所述,即把婚 姻当成一种投资来对待。 一个人过是不是比两个人过更加轻松愉快?一个人的成本是不是大

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幅小于两个人的成本?这些在以前很少考虑到问题在科学技术高速发展的今天突兀的显示 出来。结婚之后,买房、穿衣吃饭、投资理财,对于男性女性来说都是需要一起讨论的地方。 从这个角度看,女性的结婚并不仅仅是受着爱情的限制,也受其余因素的各种影响。其实这 一概念与加里·贝克尔的婚姻理论大同小异。

②中国经济、GDP 的影响。 不少学者也认为“剩女”的形成和我国日益强盛的经济发展也有算关系。姚琳在《浅析 “剩女”的经济现象》 (2010)曾经描述中国的人均 GDP 与剩女(严格讲是超过 30 岁未婚女 性)占本地区女性比例 B 成一定正比关系。 建立模型 GDP=a*B+C(a为比例系数, 为修正值); C 当地区人均 GDP 为 1000-10000 美元时,B 值显著增长,说明 GDP 的增长会带动“剩女”数 量的增长。当地区人均 GDP 为超过 10000 美元时,B 值会显著下降,因为 GDP 较高意味着当 地的男性较为优秀, 比较符合 “剩女” 们的择偶标准, 正如笔者之前所叙述, 这时候 “剩女” 们更容易找到自己的白马王子。 这点似乎也符合实证, 相比于欧洲的发达国家以及美国, “剩 女”问题似乎困扰中国的年轻人更多一些。 国内的文献从不同的角度对于 “剩女”现象的原因做了解释并进行了相应的分析, 但是 大多数还是停留在理性分析以及层面分析上。 根据笔者的搜集, 目前并没有人进行对于大龄 单身女青年——“剩女”形成原因的比较客观的、 直接的计量分析以及实证研究。 这不得不 说是一个遗憾,缺少一些具体的计量模型的建立、数据的收集和总结、实证的分析很难验证 学者们的想法是否百分之百的正确。 所以本文通过一些特定的数据, 以及建立相应的模型力 求从客观、计量的角度上面来探求“剩女”之剩的原因。

三、数据介绍
本文所采用的数据是由北京大学中国社会科学调查中心实施的中国家庭动态跟踪调查 (Chinese Family Panel Studies,)所提供。CFPS 一项旨在通过跟踪搜集个体、家庭、社 区三个层次的数据,反应中国社会、经济、人口、教育和健康的变迁,为学术研究和政策决 策提供数据为目标的重大社会科学项目。中国家庭动态跟踪调查第一期计划为 12 年 (2008-2020) 本课题主要采用的是 2008 年以及 2009 年成人问卷的部分, 。 成人问卷囊括了 受访者的年龄、教育水平、婚姻状况、经济条件、儿女状况等等。 根据所研究的问题, 笔者对于数据进行了筛选以及删除。 首先笔者删除掉年龄五十岁以 上的数据。 笔者认识到 2008 年五十岁以上的人群大多数 1958 年以前甚至更早时候出生, 由 于时代的不同,这些人群对于婚姻的理解与现在社会上存在的“剩女”完全不一致。在那个 年代,很多还是父母的媒妁之言,所以这些样本的存在可能会影响最终的研究结果。其次笔 者删除掉了二十岁以下的样本。由于我国婚姻法规定女性的结婚年龄为 20 岁以上,男性的 结婚年龄为 22 岁以上,所以 20 岁以下的未婚女性属于特殊团体,不应该加入到分析中。最 后笔者筛剔除掉了男性以及其余信息不完整的样本。 这是出于研究问题的局限性以及数据的
8

完整性考虑。

四、模型介绍
通过统计、计量知识以及之前文书的阅读,笔者初步决定采用 Logistic 多元线性回归 模型进行逐步回归分析。转化为多元线性回归后具体设定的方程是:

D=α 1X1+α 2X2+α 3X3+α 4X4+α 5X5 +α 6X6+α 7X7+α 8X8 +α 9X9+α 10X10 +α
11

X11+ c
笔者认为该模型可以很好的解释女性结婚的原因, 究竟是因为自身的条件还是因为其他

因素的影响都可以通过这个模型有所解释。 在变量的选择上,笔者根据问卷的问题设置以及研究的具体问题主要选择为:

因变量 自变量: (已婚女性均近似选择 结婚时候的情况) 1、健康情况:

女性是否结婚 结婚为 1,未婚为 0

个人自述健康情况以及之前病史 X1 很好为 1 好为 2

差不多为 3 不太好为 4 不好为 5
本人结婚年龄(未结婚的样本则为现在的年龄)X2 本人户口状况 X3 农业户为 1 非农业户为 2 没有户口

为 3 不适用为 4
2、个人背景: 本人居住地状况 X4 城市为 1 农村为 2 建制镇为 3 县

成为 4
本人教育水平 X5 从未上学到博士分为 1-8 本人工作情况 X6 有为 1 没有为 0 本地的社会地位 X7 1-5 随重要程度递增 是否感到孤独感 X8 1-5 随重要程度递增 是否有无话不说的人 X9 有为 1,没有为 0 3、价值观因素: 是否是否认为婚姻美满重要 X10 1-5 随重要程度递增 是否认为传宗接代重要 X11

1-5 随重要程度递增

笔者之所以选择上述变量的原因是根据了整体问卷的设置以及自己对于 “剩女 “问题的 思考。 笔者首先把影响变量分为三部分: 健康情况、 个人背景以及价值观因素。 笔者观察到, 健康因素对于婚姻是至关重要的。 虽然我们可以看到可歌可泣的医院婚礼, 或者另一方的不

9

离不弃,但毕竟这都是个例情况。在婚姻登记处因为健康原因分道扬镳的大有人在。此外城 市化、工作情况等等个人因素也是当代女性选择结婚的主要标准。最后,之前的文献可能没 有涉及到的价值观因素, 笔者认为也应该加进去。 因为一个人的主观思想有极大的可能会影 响其的行为。

五、思考不足
本文还存在诸多不足。首先由于研究问题的局限性,笔者对数据进行了大范围的筛选, 使样本量从 7000 多减到 1000 多, 虽然仍可以成为大样本, 但是样本的减少也相应减少了最 后所得到结果的权威以及真实性。 其次由于笔者使用的数据是有问卷调查所得到的其中不可 避免的会涉及到问卷人以及答卷人的主管因素影响, 这点虽同统计误差一样是不可避免, 但 做最后研究问题论述时也需要考虑其中。最后笔者在变量的选取上也存在一些偏差。由于 CFPS2008 年的数据是局限在北京、上海、广州三个城市的,由于都是中国的一些城市,笔 者忽略了其对因变量的影响; 与此同时一些诸如父母因素的原因由于问卷的限制也没有体现 出来,实为一遗憾。当然由于笔者的知识水平又限以及各方面的不足,文章中可能还存在笔 者并没有认识到的问题。 如果需要进一步分析中国剩女的形成因素, 可能还需要更多资料以 及笔者自身能力的提高。

六、资料来源及参考文献
1、杨小平 2006 年《说“剩女”, 》《语文建设》第九期 第 59 页 2、许琳玲 2010 年《当代社会形势下剩女现象的原因及影响探析》《海峡科学》第八期 第 , 11-13 页 3、宁鸿 2010 年《 “剩女”现象的社会学分析》《理论界》第十二期 第 222-223 页 ,

4、雷晓宇 2009 年《剩女经济学》《中国企业家》第十七期 第 126 页 , 5、高丙吉 2010 年《 “剩女现象”的经济学思考》《经济研究导刊》第十六期第 129-130 页 , 6、周晓燕/周军 2009 年 《中国高学历女青年婚恋观研究——2007-2008 年调查报告》《中 , 国青年研究》第 12 期 第 50~53 页 7、高修娟 2011 年 《 “剩女难嫁”的社会学解读》《北京青年政治学院学报》 第二十卷第 , 一期 第 16-21 页 8、吴宏姣、陆卫群 2010 年《对中国“剩女”现象的剖析》《法制与社会》2010 年 10 月上 , 第 199 页 9、刘廷华 2010 年 《论剩男剩女现象的制度原因》 宜宾学院学报》第十卷第三期 第 37-41 , 《 页 10、左雪松,夏道玉 2009 年《从“两种生产”理论透析“剩女”现象的窘境》《重庆邮电 , 大学学报(社会科学版)》第 21 卷第一期 第 117-121 页

10

11、Sarah Carmichael 2011‘Marriage and Power: Age at first marriage and spousal

age gap in Lesser Developed Counties’ CGEH paper 1-26
12、Lawrence D. E. Ikamari 2005‘The effect of education on timing of marriage in

Kenya’ DR paper 1-24
13、Barbara Von ELM& Charles Hirschman 1979‘Age at First Marriage in Peninsular

Malaysia’ journal of marriage and the family 887-891
14、 Becker, G. 1973. ‘A Theory Of Marriage Part I’ The Journal of Political Economy, , 81(4),813-846.

11

思路: 1、研究目的

中国“剩女”形成的原因 以及实证分析
王丹平 2011/12/28

2、文献综述 3、数据情况 4、模型建立 5、思考不足

1、研究目的 ——何为“剩女”
国内:“剩女”简言之即为剩下的女人,就是说到达了 一定的年龄却还是没有找到另一半或者进入结婚殿 堂的女子。

1、研究目的 ——为什么会关注“剩女”
• 电视剧、小说相关题材的广泛
——“既然爱情已经沦落成地球上的最后一件奢侈品,她能做的,就是拼死坚守这个珠光 宝气的橱窗。她是剩者,她终将成王。”——By落落

• 电视相亲节目的火爆
——“非诚勿扰”、“我们约会吧”……

国外:“剩女”为“3S”女性,即Single、Seventies、 Stuck。

• 周围身边大龄单身女青年数量的增多
——周末相亲市场的火爆、公司尤其是外企“剩女”的数量变多



25~31岁五年未婚率比较



25~50岁未婚女性占总未婚女性比 中国人口年鉴

1、研究目的 ——研究范围 • 本篇论文主要从“剩女”现象的成因入手, 笔者希望运用相应可靠的数据,以及切实 的模型来分析“剩女”形成的原因。通过一 定的实证分析来验证“剩女”对于社会的影 响,也会提出相应的改善“剩女”问题的措 施。涉及的关键词主要是“剩女”、“社会问 题”、“教育”、“收入”等等。



32~38岁五年未婚率比较



39岁~50岁五年未婚率比较

2、文献综述(foreign) ——theory of marriage (Gary Becker)

2、文献综述(foreign)
• Marriage and Power: Age at first marriage and spousal age gap in Lesser Developed Counties(Sarah Carmichael CGEH paper 2011.9)
——urbanization(+) education(+) family type religion(‐)

• In Cary Becker’s analysis of marriage couples wed young and universally if they can offer each other complementary inputs. This complementary nature of the union means that utility is generated by forming a household.

• The effect of education on timing of marriage in Kenya(Lawrence D. E. Ikamari DR paper 2005)
——education(+) age at first sex debut(+) urbanization(+) region of residence(+) religion(‐)

• Age at First Marriage in Peninsular Malaysia( Barbara Von ELM& Charles Hirschman journal of marriage and the family 1979)
• ——education(+) urbanization(+) work experience(+) religion(ambiguous) father’s occupation(+)

2、文献综述(domestic) ——社会学分析
• 传统意识中封建思想的根深蒂固
——“斜坡”理论((周晓燕/周军,2010;许琳玲,2010;高修娟,2011)

2、文献综述(domestic) ——经济学分析
• “剩女”经济学
——成本收益效应。一个人过是不是比两个人过更加轻松愉快?一个人的成本是不是大幅 小于两个人的成本?

• 女性个人要求的提高
—— 自身素质的提高 ——“门当户对”(宁鸿,2008;刘廷华,2009;吴宏姣、陆卫群,2010)

——婚姻是一场投资(买房、买车、穿衣等等),而不仅仅是爱情(雷晓宇,2009)

• 中国经济、GDP的影响‐
——中国的人均GDP与剩女占本地区女性比例B成一定正比关系。建立模型GDP=a*B+C(a 为比例系数,C为修正值);当地区人均GDP为1000‐10000美元时,B值显著增长,说 明GDP的增长会带动“剩女”数量的增长。当地区人均GDP为超过10000美元时,B值会 显著下降,因为GDP较高意味着当地的男性较为优秀,比较符合“剩女”们的择偶标 准。(姚琳,2010)

• 社会结构以及社会变迁的影响
——“两耳不闻窗外事,一心只读圣贤书” —— 工作过于忙累,要么交友圈过于狭小(许琳玲,2010)

3、数据情况 ——数据来源
• 本文所采用的数据是由北京大学中国社会科学调查 中心实施的中国家庭动态跟踪调查(Chinese Family Panel Studies,)所提供。CFPS一项旨在通过跟踪搜 集个体、家庭、社区三个层次的数据,反应中国社 会、经济、人口、教育和健康的变迁,为学术研究 和政策决策提供数据为目标的重大社会科学项目。 中国家庭动态跟踪调查第一期计划为12年(2008‐ 2020)。本课题主要采用的是2008年以及2009年成 人问卷的部分,成人问卷囊括了受访者的年龄、教 育水平、婚姻状况、经济条件、儿女状况等等。

3、数据情况 ——数据筛选 • 剔除50岁以上的样本
——时代不同

• 剔除20岁以下样本
——婚姻法规定女性结婚年龄为20岁以上,男性结婚年龄为22岁以上

• 剔除男性以及缺少变量的样本

4、变量选择以及模型建立
• 本文拟采用Logistic 多元线性回归模型 进行逐步回归分 析。

5、思考不足 • 数据量过少
—— 7000+——1000+

变量
因变量:女性是否结婚 自变量:(已婚女性均近似选择结婚时候的情 况) 1、健康情况: •个人自述健康情况以及之前病史 2、个人背景: •本人结婚年龄 •本人户口状况 •本人户籍状况 •本人教育水平 •本人工作情况 •本地的社会地位 3、价值观因素 •是否感到孤独感 •是否有无话不说的人 •是否是否认为婚姻美满重要 •是否认为传宗接代重要

• 主观因素影响(问卷问题) • 变量选择假设问题
——居住城市(北上广) ——父母因素,配偶因素

谢谢!

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