...Hindsight bias is an individual overestimating their ability to have had predicted the outcome in a situation after said situation has occurred. When hindsight bias was introduced in class, my ears immediately perked up. My uncle is a criminal defense attorney and has spoken (complained) about hindsight bias in jurors many times. Jurors are acquainted with, typically, a bad outcome before they even hear any of the evidence. Case in point, a man is on trial for murdering his wife. Jurors already know the outcome of that situation – the wife has been murdered – without hearing any evidence. Already their hindsight bias was leading them before they have heard the evidence, to ask subconsciously, who did the wrong thing and why, rather than will...
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...Bias Indiana Wesleyan University School of Business and Leadership MGMT- 515: Business Communication Dr. Jeff Boyce Cognitive Bias The cognitive bias that affects my critical decision making processes is the Hindsight and Curse of Knowledge bias. I predict outcomes without acknowledging the correct outcome. I often use this bias when I watch sports. I am an avid fan of basketball, and I typically like to predict the outcome of games and even the entire season. Cognitive bias is processing or obtaining information and filtering it through my own personal preferences. This bias is an individual’s personal preference or worldview, rather than concrete facts. Being aware of this bias will affect how decisions are made critical logical thinking should be used. I will not make decisions based on information I have previously gained but use resources to make a definitive decision. Facts should be considered for the best possible outcome. (Roth 2011) Hindsight bias stems from a widely acknowledged human tendency to view a known outcome as having been more foreseeable than it actually was prior to its concurrence. It can make misfortune look like incompetence, folly, or worse. Curse of Knowledge bias limits a person’s ability to imagine what it would be like not to know an already-known fact. It can lead to overreliance on the mere existence of a fact, as opposed to evidence that might be needed to prove the fact to others. Real World Cognitive biases can have negative effects...
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...consequence of creeping determinism, Fischhoff argued, could be seen when hindsight judges were asked to estimate the probability of an event while ignoring outcome data; that is, when they were asked to retrieve their foresight state-of-mind. Most research, including Fischhoffs, has indicated that hindsight judges cannot accurately recall foresight knowledge. A study by Hasher, Attig, and Alba (1981), however, demonstrated that initial foresight knowledge was not erased from memory, it was simply more difficult to retrieve. Given that foresight knowledge seems to be more difficult to retrieve once outcome knowledge has been provided and that, in many cases, foresight knowledge may actually conflict with hindsight knowledge, one method suggested by Fischhoff (1975) to assimilate outcome data makes use of heuristics as proposed by Tversky and Kahneman (1973, 1974). Of particular relevance to our study, Fischhoff argued: THE HINDSIGHT BIAS 441 A second heuristic leads judges to evaluate an outcome's likelihood by the relative "availability" of scenarios leading to its occurrence and nonoccurrence. The judge who knows what happened, and has adjusted his perceptions in the light of that knowledge, may well find it difficult to imagine how things could have turned out otherwise. (1975, p. 298) Our purpose was to investigate the role of the availability heuristic with regard to outcome knowledge. If hindsight knowledge facilitates the use of heuristics because it inhibits...
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...intervals in making predictions. They tend to overweigh their own forecasts relative to those of others. The self-serving attribution bias, under which individuals attribute past successes to their own skills and past failures to bad luck, can lead to overconfidence. In the context of financial markets, the confidence of a self-attributing investor increases when public information is in line with his or her forecast, but it does not decrease as much when public information contradicts his or her forecast. The investor therefore gains excessive confidence over time, after receiving different confirming and disconfirming public news. A similar cognitive bias, illusory superiority (or the above average effect), also causes people to overestimate their own abilities. Evidence of this bias is documented in studies that ask subjects to assess their abilities - indeed, a vast majority of people say they are above the average. * Hindsight bias Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it, prior to its occurrence. It is a multifaceted phenomenon that can affect different stages of designs, processes, contexts, and situations. Hindsight bias may cause memory distortion, where the recollection and reconstruction of content can lead to false theoretical outcomes. It has been suggested...
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...There are many different psychological concepts, theories, and phenomenon’s that occur in everyday life. Some more common and relatable to than others, however, they can tell a lot about a person just from observing behavior. Four of the more common social psychological concepts that I noticed over fall break were the theories of having hindsight bias, confirmation bias, overconfidence, and egocentrism. All four play an important role in characterizing a person’s personality and a necessary portrayal for observing another person’s behavior. The first psychological concept that I found myself experiencing over fall break is the concept of hindsight bias. For reference, hindsight bias, or the “I knew it all along” phenomenon, is the inclination after an event has taken place, to eventually see the event as it has been predicted. Although, this a common concept that a lot of people tend to experience, I ironically realized this over our family holiday dinner. I predicted that my family was going to make all the same traditional food items for Thanksgiving dinner before coming home from campus. After all, I was...
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...Non-programmed Decisions 4. Satisficing- Choosing acceptable alternative to resolving a problem or pursuing an opportunity i. Not all alternatives are considered 5. Sources of Error in Decision Making- a. Cognitive Heuristics and Biases i. Availability – deaths in US, words in novel ii. Representativeness –conjunction fallacy, base rates, regression to mean-Linda eg iii. Anchoring and Adjustment –pay for beer, engineer’s salary iv. Framing –loss and gain b. Motivational Biases i. Confirmation Bias ii. Hindsight Bias iii. Escalation of Commitment iv. Positive (ego-centric) Illusions c. Emotion-related Biases i. Priming 6. The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is an error that occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking into account the prior probability ("base rate") of H and the total probability of evidence E. 7. The misconception of chance is another bias. Often, especially while gambling, we interpret a ‘normal’ event as rare, believing that chance will ‘correct’ a series of rare...
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...Insert text here. Use complete sentences and limit each cell to a maximum of 200 words. | Self-Esteem | A person’s evaluation of his or her self-concept. | | | | Self-Handicapping | Actions that people take to sabotage their performance and enhance their opportunity to excuse anticipated failure | | | | Hindsight Bias | The tendency, once an event has occurred, to overestimate out ability to have foreseen the outcome | | | | External Attribution | An attribution that locates the cause of an event to factors external to the person, such as luck, or other people, or the situation. | | | | Cognitive Dissonance | A feeling of discomfort caused by performing an action that is inconsistent with one’s attitudes. | | | | Media Persuasion | The process of consciously attempting to change attitudes through the transmission of some message. | | | | Matrix Terms -- Key to Pages from Textbook Franzoi, S. L. (2009). PSY 110: Social psychology: 2009 custom edition (5th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill Custom Publishing. Term | Textbook Pages | Survey Research | 43-44 | Self-Esteem | 85-93 | Self-Handicapping | 81-85 | Hindsight Bias | 112-113 and 116 | External Attribution | 127 | Cognitive Dissonance | 162-168 | Media...
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...Researches have concluded that memories can be altered by misinformation, hindsight bias, encoding, and Deese-Roedigner-McDermott (DRM) paradigm, but scenarios also affect how we recall information. This leads us to question how reliable our memory actually is and whether we can prevent ourselves from altering our...
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...stages of is unknown sickness with hopes of getting better. His first impression of the place seemed to be to his liking, Givoni was pleased with the appearance of the nice rooms, attractive nurses and even interested in the knowledgeable doctors. Shortly after arriving at the sanatorium he found out the placing of the patients depended on their health state. This new information caused him to become obsessed with his placement and eventually began to effect his health. The concept that become clear while reading was that negative thinking will produce a negative effect. A concept can be used to help understand the main purpose of something or to help explain it. An example of a concept in the story that stood out was the hindsight bias. The hindsight bias is the tendency to exaggerate after learning an outcome. On page 4 in the beginning of the third paragraph, Givoni was asked to move to a different room due to a mother needing to be near her children and he graciously agreed. After agreeing the head nurse stated, “ such courageous act doesn’t surprise me coming from a person like yourself.” The nurse acted as though he expected Givoni to say yes but only knew this after the fact. The way the nurse was able to get Giovani to agree to move was by using the low ball technique. The low ball technique is a tactic used to get someone to agree to something with chances of agreeing to something larger. It wasn’t until after Giovanni agree when he threw in that the room he would...
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...Behavioral Finance By Albert Phung http://www.investopedia.com/university/behavioral_finance/default.asp Thank-you very much for downloading the printable version of this tutorial. As always, we welcome any feedback or suggestions. http://www.investopedia.com/contact.aspx Table of Contents 1) Behavioral Finance: Introduction 2) Behavioral Finance: Background 3) Behavioral Finance: Anomalies 4) Behavioral Finance: Key Concepts - Anchoring 5) Behavioral Finance: Key Concepts - Mental Accounting 6) Behavioral Finance: Key Concepts - Confirmation and Hindsight Bias 7) Behavioral Finance: Key Concepts - Gambler's Fallacy 8) Behavioral Finance: Key Concepts - Herd Behavior 9) Behavioral Finance: Key Concepts - Overconfidence 10) Behavioral Finance: Key Concepts - Overreactions and Availability Bias 11) Behavioral Finance: Key Concepts - Prospect Theory 12) Behavioral Finance: Conclusion Introduction According to conventional financial theory, the world and its participants are, for the most part, rational "wealth maximizers". However, there are many instances where emotion and psychology influence our decisions, causing us to behave in unpredictable or irrational ways. Behavioral finance is a relatively new field that seeks to combine behavioral and cognitive psychological theory with conventional economics and finance to provide explanations for why people make irrational financial decisions. By the end of this tutorial, we hope that you'll have a better understanding of some...
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...often argues with the male kitchen staffs about controversial topic such as abortion or gay marriage. Even sometimes the manager has noticed about the tension between her and the others staff, things seem go well. Unfortunately, One day after lunch time, the manager found a letter from Linda with vulgar language in which she criticized the male staffs and the worse management skills of the manager. She decided to quit the job and by the way asking for special condition from manager to fire the male staffs to keep her or lose her either. The scenario is likely happens in every kind of business ; workers do not get along with each other and the manager must solve the conflicts as soon as possible to maintain an professional workplace . The Hindsight bias is used by Lohnet to make a déjà vu about the arguments between Dave and Linda. Lohnet would like...
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...ego, which is afraid of upsetting his superego is also associated with Freud’s theory because his personality, which is representing the conscience. It also takes the reality of sexual and aggressive urges. All of Alan’s concepts are related because his development during adolescence maybe the affect of his work-related stress, low self-esteem, anxiety issue and his ego. They have some relation to psychology and cognitive process. Denise concepts are dreams (a cognitive view), hindsight bias, and decision making. The nightmares that Denise were experiencing, certainly falls under cognitive and humanistic, which is the theory that has a lot to do with her growth. After the incident on the freeway, Denise nightmares could have developed from the hippocampus, which caused her dreams from a cognitive view. The recent break up between her and Tom affected her limbic system because once her emotional reactions started arriving, her behavior started changing. Then her parents started to hindsight bias a cancelled date in the past...
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...psychology? Who was the American philosopher-psychologist who authored a textbook in 1890 for the emerging discipline of psychology? Wilhelm Wundt John B. Watson Sigmund Freud Correct! William James Question 2 1 / 1 pts After noting that a majority of professional basketball players are African-American, Ervin concluded that African-Americans are better athletes than members of other racial groups. Ervin's conclusion best illustrates the danger of After noting that a majority of professional basketball players are African-American, Ervin concluded that African-Americans are better athletes than members of other racial groups. Ervin's conclusion best illustrates the danger of replication. hindsight bias. the placebo effect. Correct! generalizing from vivid cases. Question 3 1 / 1 pts Random assignment minimizes ________ between experimental and control groups. Random sampling minimizes ________ between a sample and a population. Random assignment minimizes ________ between experimental and control groups. Random sampling minimizes ________ between a sample and a population. similarities; differences differences; similarities similarities; similarities...
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...Social Psychology Concept Matrix Donna Conahan Dr. Marina Stakic PSY110008VA016-1134-001 May 3, 2013 Social Psychology Concept | Definition | Application to SocietyProvide Example | Application to Criminal JusticeProvide Example | Application to the IndividualProvide Example | Survey Research | Survey research begins with a set of well-defined structured statements and/or questions that have been given to a select group of people allowing for the mathematical measurement of personal beliefs, attitudes, values and/or behavioral tendencies. | An example of a survey that would be applicable to society would be the issues and effects of marital separation that brings about disruption in the household and negatively affects the children as well as the spouses ability to cope and adjust which ultimately prevents reconciliation thereby leads to divorce. | An example of a survey that applies to criminal justice would be a survey that addresses how to change the public’s opinions and attitudes toward the criminal justices system. This survey would include the common criminal acts in their community, how they are currently being handled, what would like to see in the way of changing their community, what their expectations are of the local police, the changes they would like to see with how the police and criminal justice system handle these perpetrators. | Due to today’s economic hard times, I think a great survey could be how this nation’s economy has brought about...
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...Discuss some the factors which influence our thinking, judgement and decision-making Our everyday lives are filled with many choices and decisions which will impact on our lives both in the short and long-term. Our perception of the impact of these decisions on our own lives and those around us will affect how much time and effort is given to arriving at these decisions. There are several factors which impact on thinking, judgement and decision-making and it is important to note that often these occur simultaneously rather than as individual areas but in order fully understand the entire process we must analyse the factors in each individual area. While it is neither practicable or possible to consider all the factors in every decision, knowledge of the factors, process and how they interact can be of critical importance. By understanding the factors, we can ascertain how we make decisions and by gaining knowledge on the entire process, we can ultimately arrive at better decisions by being conscious of our thought and application process. How we think and apply our thought process to the decisions often determine the paths we choose to take. There are two systems, or modes, which determine how we think (Kahneman, 2011). The first system is fast, automatic, emotional and frequent and the second system is slow, logical, infrequent and conscious. The title of the Kahneman’s book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, gives us an indication of the two systems. The first system, thinking...
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