...Nottingham University Business School MBA (Finance) Programme N1DM28 International Finance Discussion and analysis of the movement in the value of US dollar against the Japanese Yen from 2002 to 2011 Kala Premarani Perumal Student ID: UNIMKL 010085 COPY 1 Executive Summary This paper is undertaken to discuss and analyse the exchange rate movements in the value of US dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY) from 2002 to 2011. We could evaluate based on the exchange rates, that as an overall the JPY has appreciated against USD during this phase. The JPY had appreciated by 57% over these years (average 2002: ¥125.31/$ to average 2011: ¥79.72/$). The paper identifies the significant influence of the movement and concludes how the future trend would be. The details incorporated in this paper was obtained from business magazines, electronic sources, conference papers and journals relating to the foreign exchange, economy and international trade between these countries. Table of Contents Executive Summary ii 1. Introduction 1 2. Period 1-January 2002 – January 2005 a) Economic Climate 2 b) Current Account Balance 3 c) BOJ Intervention 5 3. Period 2-February 2005 – June 2007 a) Monetary Setting - Interest Rate in United States of America 6 b) Carry Trade ...
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...(A$) against the Japanese Yen (¥) Four Month forecast from 1st September to 31st December 2010 Like the other currencies mentioned in the report, the Japanese Yen (¥) also adopts a floating exchange rate. As this is a short term forecast of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY), a chartist approach will be taken to analyse the movements of the two currencies. The technical method and the effects of the government are the topics that will be analysed for this short run forecast (Moffett et al, 2006 p.136). As of the 1st of September 2010 the Australian Dollar $1 = Y75.93. Technical Method The first step of the analysis will be using the technical method. The technical method skips the fundamental roles of the exchange rate which includes the inflation and interest rates and looks at the exchange rates past history to generate a forecast accordingly (Moosa, I 2010 p.239). According to the graph of the AUS against the Yen (Appendix 2A) it can be seen that the Yen has been running in a bull market (red line) from February to the start of May. This means the market has been running with an upward trend as three tops and bottoms have touched the link (Moosa, I 2010 p.242). A trend reversal has started appearing as the market goes into a bear market but then steadily picks up again to form an ascending triangle (blue line). The market has gone into an ascending triangle as buyers are willing to pay more for the currency. Government The Yen has hit a 15 year...
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...Movement of the Yen and Dollar Exchange Rates Johan Floyd Omoso Boles 173812 International Christian University International Finance Heather A. Montgomery Abstract: This study finds the purchasing power parity (PPP) model of exchange rates to explain movements in the yen-dollar exchange rate over the long run of twenty two years. The results show that this theory does not necessarily provide a satisfactory explanation of the behavior of exchange rates. However, as the exchange rates became flexible again in recent years, the theory has become more applicable. Does the PPP model exactly indicate that changes in price levels could bring about changes in the yen/dollar exchange rate? 1. Introduction “As for all that bold talk from Tokyo: as FT Alphaville earlier remarked, citing a Wednesday note from Nomura’s rates team, central banks ‘just don’t seem to be getting the same, err, market bang for their buck as they used to’ ” (The Financial Times, August 25, 2010). Apparently, Japan’s effort to push its yen to appreciate a long time ago did not seem to get a huge market response. Nowadays, the situation is not getting any better despite the struggles of the Central Bank of Japan to stabilize the growth of its currency. Acknowledging this scenario, the researcher would like to talk about the influence of the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) model to argue if changes in price levels could bring about changes in the yen/dollar exchange rate. Below is the yen-dollar exchange...
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...estate, services, and communication are Japan's major industries today. Agriculture makes up only about two percent of the GNP. Most important agricultural product is rice. Resources of raw materials are very limited and the mining industry rather small. Japan's service sector accounts for about three-quarters of its total economic output. Banking, insurance, real estate, retailing, transportation, and telecommunications are all major industries such as Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho, NTT, TEPCO, Nomura, Mitsubishi Estate, Tokio Marine, Mitsui Sumitomo, JR East, Seven & I, and Japan Airlines counting as one of the largest companies in the world. 2. CURRENT ACCOUNT 3.2. GOODS Exports decreased to 65.5 trillion yen in 2011 from 67.4 trillion yen in 2010 mainly due to the effects of the...
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...The Rise (and Fall) of the Japanese Yen Lawrence Cifarelli III, Nazanin Ershad, Natthima Sonsoem, Anyesha Mahaptra University of New Haven Abstract This Case study provides an insight to the fluctuations experienced in the currency of Japan, Yen from the late 1990’s to recent years. Japan follows the floating currency monetary policy due to which there is no measures taken on to control the fluctuations. Japan experienced magnificent growth through the 60's, 70's, and 80's leading into the 90's beginning. In the late 1990's, Japan’s economy marked its growth significantly slower, which had then come to be known as the 'lost decade' due to Japanese Asset Price bubble that collapsed. Eventually the nation faced major issues regarding environmental disasters, hollowing out of industries, etc. The past events which have caused the rise and downfall of Japanese Yen has been illustrated for examining the causes of the appreciation and depreciation of this currency. The influence of this floating currency on Japan's economy has been depicted in this case study. This paper also provides some applications of the measures that can maintain the stability of the Japanese Yen. Japan experienced tremendous growth throughout the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s leading into the leading into the early 1990s. After World War II, Japan underwent a period of restoration followed by the events in 1978 where Japan excelled as a manufacturer partnering with the United States which helped to make its...
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...Lecture 5 - The Market for Foreign Exchange Foreign Exchange Market –Every three years, the Bank for International Settlements, the BIS, does a major survey of the foreign exchange markets. In the latest survey, the BIS estimates that the average turnover in the foreign exchange market, meaning spot transactions, forwards and swaps and currency options, in April 2013 was $5.3 trillion per day. Other years’ results: | |1998 |2001 |2004 |2007 |2010 2013 | |turnover ($trillions) |1.5 |1.2 |1.9 |3.3 |4 5.3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Reduction between 1998 and 2001 due to (1) introduction of the euro which reduced currency trading in the individual currencies that subsequently made up the euro area and (2) trend of consolidation of the banking sector during that period, so there were fewer banks in the fx market trading amongst themselves. One significant change in the report is a significant increase in trading between foreign exchange dealers, primarily banks and their financial customers...
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...deliberately weakening its currency exchange rate so they could increase their exports. The world financial leaders including the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), has also discussed this issue at a meeting in Washington in early October 2010. On the occasion, the IMF warned the governments in some countries not to use exchange rates as a tool to encourage increased exports, because it can cause a currency war between the countries in the world. Some countries being criticized for its policies to keep their currencies remain weak. Japan, for example, they intervene for the first time since 2004, to sell 2.12 trillion yen on September 15. This is to protect the increase in the yen exchange rate that has reached its highest level in 15 years. The debate actually starts from the currency war between China and the United States. US have been protesting China over the years. US judge China to hold its currency not to strengthen to protect its exports. US even plans to establish sanctions against China for not allowing its currency to strengthen against the U.S. dollar as it should. China's rapid economic growth has caused China's trade surplus against its trading partner countries to increase. In the second quarter of 2010, China's economy grew 10.3 percent, from 11.9 percent growth in the previous quarter. However, on the contrary, many Chinese trading partners are experiencing widening trade deficit, including the U.S. In 2009, the U.S. trade balance deficit with China...
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...M14/3/ECONO/SP2/ENG/TZ0/XX –2– SECTION A Answer one question from this section. 1. Study the extract below and answer the questions that follow. Japan in first trade gap since 1963 Japan’s current account surplus fell 85.5 in November 2011 from a year earlier to % 138.5 billion Japanese yen (Japan’s currency) ($1.80 billion), the Ministry of Finance said. In 2011, Japan recorded its first deficit in its balance of trade in goods since 1963. The appreciation of the Japanese yen against the dollar has reduced Japan’s current account surplus. The Japanese yen gained 8.5 % against the dollar in the 12 months since January 2011. The currency has acquired a new and unusual status as a safe haven, reinforced by the eurozone debt crisis since international investors are concerned about the single European currency. It is estimated that a 1 % gain in the Japanese yen could reduce the export volumes by 0.34 %, slowing down growth for a country that has relied on overseas demand to maintain its recovery from March 2011’s earthquake. To stop the trade in goods deficit from getting worse, the world economy would have to grow by 4 % and the value of the Japanese yen would have to fall by 5 %. It is unlikely that this will happen. With their rapidly aging and...
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...Table of Contents Why were Keynesian ideas revolutionary? 2 How does Keynes theory work? 4 What economic conditions in your news article that require government intervention? Do you have faith that this intervention will be effective? 7 How have the economists’ views on Keynesian economics changed over time? 9 Is Keynesian economics dead today? 12 Works Cited 14 Appendix A 15 Why you should be wary of the Japanese “revival” 15 Why were Keynesian ideas revolutionary? Keynesian economics is a macroeconomic theory developed by John Maynard Keynes, who is a British economist. According to Keynesian theory, government intervention plays an important role in the economy, and focuses on short-term goals. It is used mostly in times of recession, inflation, unemployment to stabilize the business cycle, therefore active government policy is required and government spending is a good way to put money back into the GDP. (hupii.com) Keynes is famous for his simple explanation for the cause of the Great Depression during the 1930s. His idea was based on a circular flow of money, which states that when spending increases in an economy, earnings will also increase, and the outcome it will lead to even more spending and earnings (economic growth). His ideas had led to a revolution in economic thought. (martinfrost.ws) During the period of World War 2, United States president has spent enormously huge on defence which has that helped revive the U.S economy. Besides...
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...Assignment Currency Devaluation Introduction Devaluation refers to a decrease in a currency's value. A currency devalues when its value declines in relation to one or more other currencies. It affects the demand for exports and imports. Currency devaluation is evaluated in terms of the foreign exchange rate. Exchange rate is the value between two currencies shows how much one currency is worth in terms of other currency. The depth and intensity of exchange rate volatility and its impact on the volume of international trade was recognized during 1970s when the world economy shifted from fixed exchange rate to free floating exchange rate. If the exchange rate volatility is higher, then it will generate uncertainty of the future profit from export trade. In this assignment we will discuss on such issues like exchange rate volatility I addition to currency devaluation and its impact on the volume of international trade of developing country focusing Bangladesh. This assignment is based on the exchange rate and its volatility in addition to devaluation that affect on the on international trade of Bangladesh. The concept of the study is taken from the academic activity of ECN-201 course instructed by Mrs. Nahid ferdousi, lecturer of Department of Business Administration of University of Asia Pacific. This paper consists of three parts. In first part we will give a short description of currency valuation and factors that affects the currency valuation, and then we animated...
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...012-IBE-CaseStudies.docx Academic Year 2011-2012 International Business Environment Jean-Guillaume DITTER, PhD Groupe ESC Dijon Bourgogne – Burgundy School of Business SUPPORT DOCUMENT I - CASE STUDIES The texts making-up this document review and emphasize significant issues covered during the sessions. The questions asked at the beginning of each set of texts are meant to help students identify the issues that they should pay attention to. Students will work in teams on one single case study (see class outline for number of students per team). Each team will produce a presentation slideshow of its case study (7-10 slides per presentation, depending on the size of the case). Slideshows will be presented orally during sessions, according to the class outline (1520mn per presentation). Each team member will actively participate in his/her team presentation. Page 1 of 35 012-IBE-CaseStudies.docx CONTENTS Case Study 1. Text 1. Text 2. Text 3. Case Study 2. Text 4. Case Study 3. Text 5. Text 6. Text 7. Case Study 4. Text 8. Text 9. Text 10. Text 11. Text 12. Text 13. Case Study 5. Text 14. Text 15. Text 16. Text 17. Text 18. Text 19. Case Study 6. Text 20. Text 21. Case Study 7. Text 22. Text 23. Text 24. Text 25. Chinese Mercantilism .................................................................................................... 3 Chinese New Year ............................................................................................................
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...International Business, 14e (Daniels et al.) Chapter 10 The Determination of Exchange Rates 1) The primary objective of the International Monetary Fund is to ________. A) encourage euro adoption B) promote exchange rate stability C) establish a unilateral system of payments D) foster the power of the foreign exchange market Answer: B Diff: 2 Learning Outcome: Summarize the roles of the international monetary system and global capital market Skill: Concept Objective: 1 2) The Bretton Woods Agreement established a system of fixed exchange rates under which each IMF member country set a ________. A) quota B) par value C) gold standard D) nominal interest rate Answer: B Diff: 2 Learning Outcome: Summarize the roles of the international monetary system and global capital market Skill: Concept Objective: 1 3) In order to join the IMF, a country must contribute a certain sum of money, called a ________. A) special drawing right B) trade balance C) monetary reserve D) quota Answer: D Diff: 1 Learning Outcome: Summarize the roles of the international monetary system and global capital market Skill: Concept Objective: 1 4) Which of the following best describes the special drawing right? A) an international reserve asset created to supplement members' existing reserve assets B) the official currency for international trade established by the World Bank C) a substitute for the fixed value of gold as determined by currency rates D)...
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...1. Introduction 1.1 Background Japan has the third largest economy in the world. As it is surrounded by sea, the country’s port plays an important role in maritime transportation for both exports and imports. In March 2011, the world was affected when Japan was struck with natural disasters (Earthquake and Tsunami). This sudden disaster sent everyone around the world into frenzy. It affected Japan’s ports, shipping and logistics. As a result of the natural disasters, ports in the northern area of Japan had to stop operations after the Tsunami washed away port facilities, leaving the area in tatters. Ports such as Hachinohe, Ishinomaki and Onahama were severely damaged and it would take months before operations can resume. It will take some time for Japan to rebuild itself as this is the worst disaster to hit the country since the Hiroshima/Nagasaki nuclear bombing during the World War 2. 1.2 Objectives of Project The team will be doing a research and critical analysis on how the crisis has affected Japan’s economy and how the revival of Japan will benefit the shipping economy. The areas of focus will be on the economic impacts of the various shipping markets and other factors contributing to the crisis and forecasting the future outcome in the shipping industry. We intend to go beyond the surface and dig deep into the crisis to fully understand how dealing with a crisis really works. This includes looking at past records as well as analyzing the situation in...
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...2 Per $ 1.225 1.084 5.238 0.703 7.750 48.160 94.860 13.220 7.460 0.609 1.000 1. Refer to the exchange rates given in the following table. Today June 25, 2010 Country Australia Canada Denmark Euro Hong Kong India Japan Mexico Sweden United Kingdom United States Per $ 1.152 1.037 6.036 0.811 7.779 46.360 89.350 12.697 7.740 0.667 1.000 Per £ 1.721 1.559 9.045 1.215 11.643 69.476 134.048 18.993 11.632 1.000 1.496 Per € 1.417 1.283 7.443 1.000 9.583 57.179 110.308 15.631 9.577 0.822 1.232 One Year Ago June 25, 2009 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, H.10 release: Foreign Exchange Rates. a. Compute the U.S. dollar–yen exchange rate, E$/¥, and the U.S. dollar–Canadian dollar exchange rate, E$/C$, on June 25, 2010, and June 25, 2009 Answer: June 25, 2009: E$/¥ = 1 / (94.86) = $0.0105/¥ June 25, 2010: E$/¥ = 1 / (89.35) = $0.0112/¥ June 25, 2009: E$/C$ = 1 / (1.084) = $0.9225/C$ June 25, 2010: E$/C$ = 1 / (1.037) = $0.9643/C$ b. What happened to the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar between June 25, 2009 and June 25, 2010? Compute the percentage change in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to each currency using the U.S. dollar–foreign currency exchange rates you computed in (a). Answer: Between June 25, 2009 and 2010, both the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen appreciated relative to the U.S. dollar. The percentage appreciation in the foreign currency relative to the U.S. dollar is: % E$/¥ % E$/¥ ($0.0112 – $0.0105)...
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...GDP. The Japanese GDP is estimated at $5.5 Trillion. It is the third largest, and around 8% of the WW economy. IHS iSuppli estimates suggest that if loss is around $250 Billion, the rebuild expense will be around $190 Billion. On the other hand, the World Bank estimates that the Japanese earthquake and resulting tsunami could cost the Asian economy up to $235 Billion. Key risk factors for the Japanese economy are the uncertainty over the nuclear plant at Fukushima (any meltdown/significant incident) and continued shortages of electricity, plus the time taken to repair the significant damage to infrastructure. Combined, these can affect the Japanese industry’s attempts to get back on track. iSuppli’s current GDP forecasts show a lowered outlook for 2011 versus its earlier estimates, followed by a stronger outlook in 2012. Japanese economy may see an output drop over the next few months, followed by a sharp rebound once reconstruction gets underway. Year | Pre-quake GDP Growth | Post-quake GDP Growth | 2011 | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2012 | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2013 | 1.9% | 1.4% | Source: IHS iSuppli, March 2011 iSuppli estimates that Japans’ debt to GDP ratio may rise by a percentage point, by end 2014, moving to 205% (from 204%). In other words, the ratio is unlikely to affect financing, unless it approaches a tipping point. Short term moves by Bank of Japan are expected to comprise of massive liquidity interventions, while in the medium term: Forex intervention to prevent yen appreciation...
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