...rbi.org.in इ-मेल email: helpdoc@rbi.org.in वेबसाइट May 2, 2013 Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments in 2012-13 The Reserve Bank of India today released the Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments in 2012-13. The document serves as a backdrop to the Monetary Policy Statement 2013-14 to be announced on May 3, 2013. Highlights: Overall Outlook Macro-financial risks require cautious monetary policy stance ahead • In view of macro-financial risks that stay significant, headline inflation remaining above the threshold and consumer price inflation remaining high, the space for action for 2013-14 remains very limited. If some of the risks come to fore, policy re-calibration may become necessary in either direction. • Slow-paced recovery is likely later in 2013-14, contingent on improved governance and concerted action to resolve structural bottlenecks, especially in infrastructure sector. Output gap is likely to reduce, but remain negative. • Headline inflation is likely to remain range-bound in 2013-14, with some further moderation in H1 due to subdued producers' pricing power and falling global commodity prices, before it increases somewhat in H2 largely due to base effects. • Reserve Bank's survey of outside professional forecasters shows anticipation of a modest recovery with growth in 2013-14 at 6.0 per cent from 5.0 per cent and average WPI inflation to moderate to 6.5 per cent from 7.3 per cent. Surveys show that inflation expectations have moderated slightly, while...
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...analysts correctly predicted the price would go over $100 per barrel and US economy to fall into recession. In his article named “Oil and the U.S. Macroeconomy: An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise”, Kliesen shows that if the price of crude oil is permanently increasing to either $100 or $150 per barrel would cause a modest slowing in real gross domestic products (GDP) growth and its major components relative to base line forecast without oil price. The result of this could be somewhat very important due to the weak GDP growth over the first half of 2008. Besides that, in the article, the model which the author use also predict an inflation of 4 percent in 2009 if the price of crude oil rises up to $150 per barrel. From there, forecasters, macroeconomists, financial market participants, and public policy makers always see oil price shock as an early warning because nearly all recession in post-World War II was accompanied by increase in oil price. An oil price shock is typically a large unexpected increase in the relative price of energy that affects the economic decisions of firms and households. In the short run, the price elasticity of the supply and demand for oil is very low because firms and consumers can not change their habits of consuming and alternative sources of energy is not immediately available. So it the elasticity of price will increase over long term. This change in price will be a great motivation for seeking new sources of crude oil,...
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...Indian Economy: Progress and Prospects By Deepak Mohanty ∗ It is an honour and privilege for me to be speaking at Harvard to such a distinguished audience. I thank Professor Benjamin Friedman and Professor Tarun Khanna for this opportunity. I will be speaking on the Indian Economy. India is home to 1.21 billion people, which is about 17.4 per cent of the global population. However, it accounts for only 2.4 per cent of world GDP in US dollar terms and 5.5 per cent in purchasing power parity (ppp) terms. Hence, there exists a huge potential for catch up. The global welfare too is linked to progress in India as reflected in the keen global interest in India. But, India seems to inspire and disappoint at the same time. This is reflected in various comments on the Indian economy. Yasheng Huang and Tarun Khanna in their much debated article in July 2003 issue of Foreign Policy had observed: “Can India surpass China? This is no longer a silly question”. The July 23rd 2011 issue of The Economist observed; “Twenty years ago they said the yardstick against which India should be measured was its potential. On that measure, there is much to do.” As a fledgling democracy, India’s economic experiment of planned development was held out as an example to many aspiring low-income countries in the 1950s. While some countries raced ahead in the development process, India lagged behind. This is evident from the fact that it took 40 long years from 1950-51 for India’s real per capita GDP to double...
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...This First Quarter Review is being made in a macroeconomic environment that has changed significantly since our April policy announcement. At that time, there was some optimism about the sustainability of the global recovery, however modest the pace may be. This was reinforced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts published earlier this month, which suggested that global growth would be marginally higher than their April 2010 projection. While most of that would come from emerging market economies (EMEs), the advanced economies would hold steady. However, in the aftermath of the Greek sovereign debt crisis and other visible soft spots in Europe and the US, there is renewed uncertainty about the sustainability of the recovery. 2. In contrast, on the domestic front, the recovery has consolidated and is becoming increasingly broad-based. There are rising concerns about capacity constraints being reached over a wide range of sectors. While inflationary pressures have also risen, the performance of the monsoon so far has been significantly better than during last year. While rainfall is still below the long period average at the all-India level, it has been enough to induce a significant increase in sown area across a range of crops, the high prices of which have been a source of great worry. 3. The dominant concern that has shaped the monetary policy stance in this review is high inflation. Even as food price inflation and, more generally, consumer price inflation have...
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...Research Discussion Paper Is Housing Overvalued? Ryan Fox and Peter Tulip RDP 2014-06 Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2498294 The Discussion Paper series is intended to make the results of the current economic research within the Reserve Bank available to other economists. Its aim is to present preliminary results of research so as to encourage discussion and comment. Views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Reserve Bank. Use of any results from this paper should clearly attribute the work to the authors and not to the Reserve Bank of Australia. The contents of this publication shall not be reproduced, sold or distributed without the prior consent of the Reserve Bank of Australia. ISSN 1320-7729 (Print) ISSN 1448-5109 (Online) Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2498294 Is Housing Overvalued? Ryan Fox* and Peter Tulip** Research Discussion Paper 2014-06 July 2014 * Financial Stability Department ** Economic Research Department Reserve Bank of Australia Thanks to Tom Cusbert, Luci Ellis, Richard Finlay, Alex Heath, Jonathan Kearns, Christopher Kent, David Lancaster, Tony Richards, Nigel Stapledon, Iqbal Syed, Chris Stewart and Marc-Oliver Thurner for helpful comments and discussions. We would like to acknowledge earlier RBA research by Robert Johnson. Views in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Reserve Bank...
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...Reserve Bank of India: Functions and Working RESERVE BANK OF INDIA www.rbi.org.in ž¸¸£·¸ú¡¸ ¹£ö¸¨¸Ä ¤¸ÿˆ 2 Foreword The Reserve Bank of India, the nation’s central bank, began operations on April 01, 1935. It was established with the objective of ensuring monetary stability and operating the currency and credit system of the country to its advantage. Its functions comprise monetary management, foreign exchange and reserves management, government debt management, financial regulation and supervision, apart from currency management and acting as banker to the banks and to the Government. In addition, from the beginning, the Reserve Bank has played an active developmental role, particularly for the agriculture and rural sectors. Over the years, these functions have evolved in tandem with national and global developments This book aims to demystify the central bank by providing a simple account of the Reserve Bank’s operations and the multidisciplinary nature of its functions. The Bank today focuses, among other things, on maintaining price and financial stability; ensuring credit flow to productive sectors of the economy; managing supply of good currency notes within the country; and supervising and taking a lead in development of financial markets and institutions. The book serves to highlight how the Reserve Bank’s decisions touch the daily lives of all Indians and help chart the country’s economic and financial course. We hope that readers would find the book...
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...VIEW Strategic Human Resource Management Taken from: Strategic Human Resource Management, Second Edition by Charles R. Greer Copyright © 2001, 1995 by Prentice-Hall, Inc. A Pearson Education Company Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 Compilation Copyright © 2003 by Pearson Custom Publishing All rights reserved. This copyright covers material written expressly for this volume by the editor/s as well as the compilation itself. It does not cover the individual selections herein that first appeared elsewhere. ii Permission to reprint these has been obtained by Pearson Custom Publishing for this edition only. Further reproduction by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, must be arranged with the individual copyright holders noted. This special edition published in cooperation with Pearson Custom Publishing. Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Please visit our web site at www.pearsoncustom.com ISBN 0–536–72690–6 BA 996748 PEARSON CUSTOM PUBLISHING 75 Arlington Street, Suite 300 Boston, MA 02116 A Pearson Education Company iii iv Table of Contents SECTION ONE ................................................................. 1 An Investment Perspective and Human Resources .... 2 HUMAN RESOURCE INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS ...6 INVESTMENTS IN TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT ..... 14 INVESTMENT PRACTICES FOR IMPROVED RETENTION ..................
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...Budget Deficits, National Saving, and Interest Rates William G. Gale and Peter R. Orszag September 2004 Brookings Institution and Tax Policy Center. This paper was prepared for the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, September 9-10, 2004. We thank Emil Apostolov, Matt Hall, Brennan Kelly, and Melody Keung for outstanding research assistance; Alan Auerbach, William Brainard, Robert Cumby, Bill Dickens, Doug Elmendorf, Eric Engen, Laurence Kotlikoff, Thomas Laubach, Maria Perozek, George Perry, Frank Russek, Matthew Shapiro, and David Wilcox for helpful discussions; and Eric Engen, Jane Gravelle, and Thomas Laubach for sharing data. ABSTRACT This paper provides new evidence that sustained budget deficits reduce national saving and raise interest rates by economically and statistically significant quantities. Using a series of econometric specifications that nest Ricardian and non-Ricardian models, we obtain evidence of strong non-Ricardian behavior in aggregate consumption. Consistent with several recent studies, we find that projected future deficits affect longterm interest rates, but current deficits do not. Our estimates suggest that each percent-ofGDP in current deficits reduces national saving by 0.5 to 0.8 percent of GDP. Each percent-of-GDP in projected future unified deficits raises forward long-term interest rates by 25 to 35 basis points, and each percent-of-GDP in projected future primary deficits raises interest rates by 40 to 70 basis points...
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...Global Macro Research Top of Mind November 13, 2014 Issue 29 Is Europe the Next Japan? From the editor: A slowdown in Euro area growth momentum from an already anemic pace, combined with ongoing concerns about deflation risks, has made comparisons with Japan’s so-called “lost decades” Top of Mind. We ask three experts whether the Euro area is set to repeat Japan’s prolonged period of stagnation and deflation: former BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa (unclear, but Euro area recovery requires addressing the underlying problem of economic integration and not its symptom, deflation), GS Chief European Economist Huw Pill (low growth and even some deflation similar to Japan, in terms of outcome if not in terms of causes, are likely in the short term, but – also akin to Japan – a deflationary spiral is not), and LSE Professor Paul De Grauwe (there is a real risk of this outcome or worse unless policies change). We conclude that Euro area economies and assets could escape Japan’s fate but warn that Euro area stagnation would have a greater impact on the global economy than did Japan’s. Inside Interview with Masaaki Shirakawa Former Governor of the Bank of Japan 4 Headed for Japanese-style deflation? Silvia Ardagna, GS Rates Strategy 6 Interview with Huw Pill GS Chief European Economist 8 Euro area stagnation and its discontents Jose Ursua, GS Global Economics Research 10 Interview with Paul De Grauwe Professor, London School of Economics ...
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...approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for understanding decision biases, evaluates the a priori arguments and the capital market evidence bearing on the importance of investor psychology for security prices, and reviews recent models. The best plan is . . . to profit by the folly of others. — Pliny the Elder, from John Bartlett, comp. Familiar Quotations, 9th ed. 1901. IN THE MUDDLED DAYS BEFORE THE RISE of modern finance, some otherwisereputable economists, such as Adam Smith, Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes, and Harry Markowitz, thought that individual psychology affects prices.1 What if the creators of asset-pricing theory had followed this thread? Picture a school of sociologists at the University of Chicago proposing the Deficient Markets Hypothesis: that prices inaccurately ref lect all available information. A brilliant Stanford psychologist, call him Bill Blunte, invents the Deranged Anticipation and Perception Model ~or DAPM!, in which proxies for market misvaluation are used to predict security returns. Imagine the euphoria when researchers discovered that these mispricing proxies ~such * Hirshleifer is from the Fisher College of Business, The Ohio State University. This survey was written for presentation at the American Finance Association Annual Meetings in New Orleans, January, 2001. I especially thank the editor...
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...Factors Influencing Visitor's Choices to Visit Urban Destinations Ontario Ministry of Tourism and Recreation Canadian Tourism Commission Canadian Heritage Parks Canada PREPARED BY: PREPARED FOR: Global Insight, Inc. June 2004 Table of Contents I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 1 Highlights................................................................................................................................ 1 Study Summary........................................................................................................................ 1 Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 2 Next Steps................................................................................................................................ 3 II. III. IV. A. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 4 STUDY OBJECTIVE....................................................................................................... 4 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 5 LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................... 6 Introduction............................................
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...vieillissement de la population Jakub Bijak Æ Dorota Kupiszewska Æ Marek Kupiszewski Æ Katarzyna Saczuk Æ Anna Kicinger Received: 8 August 2005 / Accepted: 31 March 2006 / Published online: 2 March 2007 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007 Abstract Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002–2052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing. Keywords Population projections Æ Labour force projections Æ International migration Æ Population ageing Æ Europe ´ ´ Resume Des projections de population et de population active sont presentees ´ ´ ´ ´ ´ ˆ pour 27 pays Europeens pour la periode 2002–2052, avec un interet particulier pour l’impact de la migration internationale sur la dynamique des populations. A partir de ´ ´ ´ ´ ´ ´ ´ scenarios uniques pour la fecondite, la mortalite et l’activite economique, trois series ` ´ ´ ´ d’hypotheses concernant les flux migratoires sont explorees, en integrant des pre´ ` ´ visions sur les developpements des politiques...
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...INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK Celebrating the BNB 130th Anniversary INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES Edited by Tsvetan Manchev, Doctor in Economics BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK 2009 International Foreign Exchange Reserves Abbreviations BNB GDP BIS b.p. EIB EC EU ESCB ECB LBNB М1 М2 М3 IMF ERMII Fed − the Bulgarian National Bank − gross domestic product − the Bank for International Settlements − basis points − the European Investment Bank − the European Commission − the European Union − the European System of Central Banks − the European Central Bank − the Law on the Bulgarian National Bank − narrow money − М1 plus quasi money − broad money − the International Monetary Fund − Exchange Rate Mechanism II − the Federal Reserve System © The Bulgarian National Bank, 2009 © 2009 by Tsvetan Manchev et al. ISBN 978-954-8579-30-8 Published by the Bulgarian National Bank 1, Knyaz Alexander I Square 1000 Sofia telephone +359 2 9145-750 facsimile +359 2 980 2425, 980 6493 www.bnb.bg 2 International Foreign Exchange Reserves Contents Introduction ......................................................... 11 PART ONE. Chapter 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THE THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS Nature and Function .......................................... 19 Definition ............................................................. 19 Gold as a Foreign Reserve Assets ...................... 20 Reasons to Own and Use Foreign Reserves ...... 23 The...
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...GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY REPORT 2013 About Bain & Company’s Private Equity business Bain & Company is the leading consulting partner to the private equity (PE) industry and its stakeholders. Private equity consulting at Bain has grown 13-fold over the past 15 years and now represents about one-quarter of the firm’s global business. We maintain a global network of more than 400 experienced professionals serving PE clients. Our practice is more than three times larger than that of the next-largest consulting firm serving private equity funds. Bain’s work with PE spans fund types, including buyout, infrastructure, real estate, debt and hedge funds. We also work with many of the most prominent limited partners (LPs) to PE firms, including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, financial institutions, endowments and family investment offices. We support our clients across a broad range of objectives: Deal generation: We help PE funds develop the right investment thesis and enhance deal flow, profiling industries, screening companies and devising a plan to approach targets. Due diligence: We help funds make better deal decisions by performing diligence, assessing performance improvement opportunities and providing a post-acquisition agenda. Immediate post-acquisition: We support the pursuit of rapid returns by developing a strategic blueprint for the acquired company, leading workshops that align management with strategic priorities and directing focused initiatives. Ongoing value addition:...
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...Volume 10, Issue 3 Fall 2010 No Double Dip On July 5th, 6th, and very early on the 7th of this year, I engaged in 70 minutes of rigorous stationary biking, a full cycle of weightlifting, and my daily stretching regimen. Oh sure, I had some hip pain and a sore knee, but at age 59, I was rocking and rolling. In this regard, I was not unlike the U.S. economy in 2005-April 2007, which was doing great in spite of some fundamental problems. Then in the course of a few hours on July 7th, I was unable to walk more than a few steps after having a hip replaced. Just like the U.S. economy in late 2008, my infirmity had taken me down a few notches! My subsequent recovery was remarkably similar to that facing the U.S. economy: a satisfactory recovery to unremarkable mediocrity. As I describe my recovery, bear in mind that the U.S. economy shed 8.4 million jobs and 4.1% of GDP in roughly 18 months. This is a lot of economic damage. On July 8th, I was able to walk twice a day for 20 minutes, bearing weight on crutches, lifting light hand weights, and doing simple leg therapy. By July 19th, I did not need any pills or a cane, and was able to walk an hour twice a day at a 23-minute-mile pace. By August 19th, I biked at full resistance for 50 minutes, walked 15-minute-miles for an hour, actively lifted leg weights, Thru Latest Available as of Sept 20, 2010 3.0 $420.5 20.5 1.9 960.1 $418 15.8 6.3 1,458.0 723.0 -50.0 261.0 681.0 15.8 4.5 20.0 93.9 -2.3 2.4 -190.2 $305.1 -$351.9 On the...
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