Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World
By Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies

Forces in the Natural and Institutional Environments

Introduction

For nearly half a century, Forecasting International has been tracking the forces that shape our future. Some 20 years ago, we codified our observations into a list of trends that forms the basis for much of our work. For each of our projects, we compare the specific circumstances of an industry or organization with these general trends and project their interactions. This often allows us to form a remarkably detailed picture of what lies ahead. This is Part Two of FI’s periodic trend report. It covers trends in energy, the environment, technology, management and institutions, and terrorism. (Part One, published in the May-June 2010 issue of THE FUTURIST, tracked economic, population, societal, family, and work trends.) Because this forecast project is ongoing, the authors — and the World Future Society — welcome your feedback.

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THE FUTURIST

July-August 2010

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Energy Trends

40% in 1999 to about 37% in 2020.

n

Despite efforts to develop alternative sources of energy, oil consumption is still rising rapidly.

• The world used only 57 million barrels of oil per day in 1973, when the first major price shock hit. By 2008, it was using 86 million barrels daily, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This was slightly more than it produced that year. • The United States alone consumed about 19.5 million barrels of oil per day in 2008 (22.8% of world total), down from 20.7 million in 2004 (25.1% of world total). U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to increase to 22 million barrels per day by 2035. • In 2008, China