...1.4 The macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks 1.4.1 A short history of a controversial topic Since the 1973 OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil embargo, the role of rapid, unanticipated increases in oil prices has been a topic of intense interest, among both economists and the lay public. Considering the magnitude of widespread national recessions during the 1970s, the controversy surrounding research on the macroeconomics of oil price shocks may seem surprising: why would anyone doubt the capacity of oil price shocks to cause the major movements in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which have been observed in so many countries? Possibly most important in fueling the controversy is the small share of GDP that oil and its close substitutes have comprised in most economies: 1.5% to 3% prior to the 1973 episode. Experienced macroeconomists doubted that even a sizeable shock to such a small part of the economy could have the observed effects. Second, the 1973 episode itself was not a clean experiment because a number of other major factors were emerging at the same time. The world economy was just getting off the post-Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime. A number of countries, including the United States, was teetering on the brink of recession at the time of the 1973 shock; in the United States in particular, monetary policy tightened right around the time of the 1973 shock. Separating these effects and deciding the role ...
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...c a t e / e n e c o Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices The role of international trade for Germany Christian Lutz a,⁎, Bernd Meyer a,b a b Institute for Economic Structures Research (GWS), Osnabrueck, Germany University of Osnabrueck, Germany a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t The analysis concentrates on direct and indirect price increases, induced shifts in international trade and structural changes in the oil importing economies. The paper at hand asks, whether a stabilizing effect via international trade and domestic structural change on the GDP of oil importing countries can be observed, if a permanent oil price increase occurs. At least for Germany, structural change from consumer goods to investment goods industry and an improvement of international competitiveness limit negative impacts of increased energy prices. Analysis is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model and the detailed INFORGE model for the German economy. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Article history: Received 15 July 2008 Received in revised form 13 January 2009 Accepted 27 May 2009 Available online 6 June 2009 JEL classification: Q43 C53 C67 F17 Keywords: Global modelling Energy prices and the macro economy International trade 1. Introduction Oil price shocks have negative impacts on oil importing countries. There seems to be evidence for this plausible result from the literature of econometric studies with vector autoregressive models...
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...OUTLINE Introduction A. What effects can produce oil prices increase? a. Brief history and evolution in oil markets b. Causes of the increment in oil prices B. Colombia on the two sides of oil prices rise effects c. Brief description of effects d. Brief history of petroleum industry Body I. International context a. Global situation of oil prices b. Volatility and Dutch disease II. Colombia Case c. analysis of effects in the macroeconomic view: inflation and currency appreciation Conclusion A. Which are the solutions to control the harmful effects of oil prices increase B. What strategies are implementing in Colombia to deal with the effects of oil prices increase. Thesis statement Since the 1970s the world hadn`t experienced an oil increase like the one that is happening these days where many countries are concerned about the effects that this phenomenon can bring to their economies. As an oil exporting country, Colombia has to deal with a lot of challenge in order to transform all the revenues from petroleum into benefits to their society. However there are some effects that can bring some instability to this small economy, especially the one that international markets create a speculative bubble which can end in the Dutch disease. ‘The Dutch disease is a major market failure originating in the existence of cheap and abundant natural or human resources that keep the currency of a country overvalued...
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...ricing Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy International Energy Agency May 2004 IEA/(2004) SUMMARY Oil prices still matter to the health of the world economy. Higher oil prices since 1999 – partly the result of OPEC supply-management policies – contributed to the global economic downturn in 2000-2001 and are dampening the current cyclical upturn: world GDP growth may have been at least half a percentage point higher in the last two or three years had prices remained at mid-2001 levels. Fears of OPEC supply cuts, political tensions in Venezuela and tight stocks have driven up international crude oil and product prices even further in recent weeks. By March 2004, crude prices were well over $10 per barrel higher than three years before. Current market conditions are more unstable than normal, in part because of geopolitical uncertainties and because tight product markets – notably for gasoline in the United States – are reinforcing upward pressures on crude prices. Higher prices are contributing to stubbornly high levels of unemployment and exacerbating budget-deficit problems in many OECD and other oil-importing countries. The vulnerability of oil-importing countries to higher oil prices varies markedly depending on the degree to which they are net importers and the oil intensity of their economies. According to the results of a quantitative exercise carried out by the IEA in collaboration with the OECD Economics Department...
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...Chapter 12 - Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis CHAPTER TWELVE MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS CHAPTER OVERVIEW This is the one of three chapters that covers fundamental security valuation. This chapter introduces a topdown approach to fundamental security analysis. It covers the first two components: macroeconomic and industry analysis. The textbook begins with a global analysis, particularly with respect to how the performance of domestic firms is influenced by international economic performance. The chapter’s main focus however is on aspects of the U. S. economy that affect security returns, including fiscal and monetary policy. In addition, a brief presentation of the determinants of interest rates is covered. The chapter concludes with a discussion of industry analysis that includes classifications of industries, information sources, the industrial life cycle and a Porter framework that can be used to analyze industry competition. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Upon reading this chapter, you should have a basic understanding of some of the macroeconomic factors that affect security prices. That is, how fiscal and monetary policy affect interest rates and security prices. And some industry groups are more affected by macroeconomic factors than others and the characteristics of an industry that affect its competitiveness. CHAPTER OUTLINE The top-down approach to fundamental analysis begins with analyzing the economy. Expected economic performance will influence...
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...Macroeconomics - The US Dollar Appreciating Versus Other Currencies Economic statistics link trade deficits to investment prospects and fiscal growth. A rise in the budget deficit of the U.S. government causes a rise in actual interest rates. Capital inflows affect such trade balances for example, if the U.S. economy offers better investment opportunities than other nations, the country’s capital flow will increase significantly. With flexible exchange system, the capital inflow tends to increase the value of the U.S dollar in correlation to other currencies. This rise in value of the dollar consequently makes U.S. exports rather less appealing to foreigners and U.S. imports become relatively less expensive; thus, net exports go down. Since 2008, the global economy has gone through significant changes influencing crosscutting growth in all the regions. However, Africa has been resilient in the face adverse challenges such as domestic conflict, worldwide headwinds, and internal supply shocks. Thus, Africa has experienced robust economical growth over the past decade. Africa’s fiscal growth has drastically increased over the past decade. This robust economic growth has seen the continent become a hub of new commercial vibrancy. Figure 1.0 below illustrates Africa’s GDP trends between the years 2001 and 2012, with projections for 2013-2014. The figure illustrates an average growth of Africa’s economic performance since the year 2001, averaging above 5%. It also approximates the...
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...INTRODUCTION Macroeconomic Variables Macroeconomics is a branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behaviour, and decision-making of an economy as a whole, rather than individual markets. This includes national, regional, and global economies. Macroeconomic is a factor that is pertinent to a broad economy at the regional or national level and affects a large population rather than a few select individuals. Macroeconomic factors are key indicators of economic performance and are closely monitored by governments, businesses and consumers. Macroeconomic factors are the factors which affect the wider economy. In other words these factors seem to summarize the picture of economy. Macroeconomic variables include economic output, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, exchange rate, foreign reserves, savings and investment. Variables used in study: • Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation also reflects erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy. A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index (normally the CPI) over time. A consumer price index (CPI) measures changes in the price level...
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...International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, Vol. 9, No. 2, (2011): 145-165 STUDY ON DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP AMONG GOLD PRICE, OIL PRICE, EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS K. S. Sujit1 and B. Rajesh Kumar2 Abstract: The dynamic and complex relationship among economic variables has attracted the researchers, policy makers and business people alike. This study is an attempt to test the dynamic relationship among gold price, stock returns, exchange rate and oil price. All these variables have witnessed significant changes over time and hence, it is absolutely necessary to validate the relationship periodically. This study takes daily data from 2nd January 1998 to 5th June 2011, constituting 3485 observations. Using techniques of time series the study tried to capture dynamic and stable relationship among these variables using vector autoregressive and cointegration technique. The results show that exchange rate is highly affected by changes in other variables. However, stock market has fewer roles in affecting the exchange rate. In this study we tested two models and one model suggests that there is weak long term relationship among variables. JEL classification: C22; E3; Keywords: Unit root tests; granger causality test, Cointegration; Vector auto regression (VAR) INTRODUCTION Gold was one of the first metals humans excavated. Gold as an asset has a hybrid nature: it is a commodity used in many industries but also it has maintained throughout history...
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...Human development in a basis of brainpower is one of the most fundamental cause not only economic development but also in terms of development in general. Human endures intellect toward productive growth in developed countries which mainly relies on technological innovation. However, as for developing countries, growth and development follows developed countries by forcing the technology mechanism and changing the structure of production towards activities with higher levels of productivity. The evidence show that during 1970s and 1980s there were of structural changes in economic activities where developing countries enters the global markets. In his preface, Giplin (2001; xi) point out that “…important step toward the creation of a truly global economy, since the mid-1980s the world has also witnessed the extraordinary growth of economic regionalism as a countermovement to economic globalization.” Similarly, Magdoff (1992; 50) state that “In fact, capital exports have helped shape the evolving global economy ever since the end of the Second World War”. Moreover, Glyn and Sutcliffe (1992; 79) point out that “…left the world economy leaderless in the 1970s and 1980s with increasingly open economies disciplined by market forces, but without a unique center of gravity.” This implies that global economies forces t To provide a well-structured discussion, this essay will begin by briefly introducing into how neo-liberalism in the mainstream of development thinking greatly achieve...
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...Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on the Stock Market Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on the Stock Market Arunabha Dhar (Roll No. 008) Gaurav Bhatt (Roll No. 017) Amartya Ray (Roll No. 067) Bodhisatva Basu (Roll No. 075) Rahul Jain (Roll No. 094) Arunabha Dhar (Roll No. 008) Gaurav Bhatt (Roll No. 017) Amartya Ray (Roll No. 067) Bodhisatva Basu (Roll No. 075) Rahul Jain (Roll No. 094) Contents UNDERSTANDING ON RESEARCH PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION & DEFINITION 3 ABSTRACT 3 INTRODUCTION 3 LITERATURE REVIEW 6 GAP in Research 8 MOTIVATION 8 DATA COLLECTION/SAMPLE SELECTION 9 HYPOTHESIS 10 Research Methodology 10 FINDINGS 11 CONTRIBUTION TO LITERATURE 23 CONCLUSIONS 23 References 25 UNDERSTANDING ON RESEARCH PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION & DEFINITION Relationship between macroeconomic variables and broad market index: A causal relationship between Nifty CNX and macroeconomic variables in India ABSTRACT The relationship between macroeconomic variables and broad market index by now are well documented in the literature. However a void in the literature relates to examining the causal relationship between Nifty CNX and macroeconomic variables such as FDI, FPI, weighted average lending rate (WALR), GDP and oil import in India and correlation among the macro variables. INTRODUCTION Globalization of Indian economy post liberalization has been spurred by capital and stock investment in terms of FDI & FPI. Indian stock market both securities...
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...Impact of Global financial crisis On Pakistan By: Nauman Ayubi Butt Roll # 8511 Table of contents 1) Reason of choosing this topic 2) Introduction 3) The term ‘Financial Crises’ 4) Financial Crisis 2007-2009 5) Causes of the crisis 6) The crisis getting global 7) The Financial crisis and Pakistan: 8) Sectoral impact of the crisis in Pakistan: 9) External sector impact i) Exports ii) Imports 10) Financial Sector impact on i) Foreign exchange ii) Banking sector iii) Circular debt iv) Stock market: 11) Inflation 12) Economic business sector impact i) Impact on textile industry 13) Social Sector Impacts 14) Poverty and unemployment: 15) IMF 16) Technique to tackle the situation Reason for choosing this topic: The reason for choosing this topic is that it has a direct relationship with the poverty, unemployment, literacy, wealth distribution and also with the increased level of terrorism in Pakistan. Introduction: Capitalism is an economic system in which land labor production pricing and distribution are all determined by the market. There is a strong history of capitalism that it can shift from extended period of rapid growth to very short periods of contraction The global financial crisis in 2008-09 which are still on the go, they actually started from the 20th century and they have been increasing since then. In the end of 20th century the U.S housing prices after a multiyear started declining, the mortgage prices had been at...
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...Jiang 1 Forecasting Imports Price Growth in China With Many Potentially Relevant Predictors: An Analysis of Forecast Methods Lili Jiang Saint Louis University ECON 698 Professor: Hailong Qian Jiang 2 Abstract This paper examines to forecast monthly growth rate of import price in China in the presence of 19 potentially relevant predictors, including international trade related variables, broad economic trend measurement, world CPI and world commodity prices and indices from January 1994 to January 2013. Simulated out-of-sample autoregressive model serves as the benchmark model. Individual autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, simple averaging combination forecast, approximate Bayesian model averaging combination forecast, discount MSFE combination forecast and diffusion indices forecast are built to compete the benchmark model. We found that all combination forecasts outperform benchmark forecast but are not statistically significant by using Clark & West test. The ARDL model with the predictor of China export price and China PPI beat the benchmark model significantly. Finally, resorting to Diebold and Mariano test, we found that the predictor of PPI in China performs best in forecasting the growth rate of import price in China. Jiang 3 1. Introduction In the past 20 years, China has undertaken market oriented economic reforms and achieved an average annual growth rate of 9.62%. The expansion of economic...
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...DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND Conditional Correlations and Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil and Stock Index Returns Roengchai Tansuchat, Chia-Lin Chang, Michael McAleer WORKING PAPER No. 4/2010 Department of Economics and Finance College of Business and Economics University of Canterbury Private Bag 4800, Christchurch New Zealand WORKING PAPER No. 4/2010 Conditional Correlations and Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil and Stock Index Returns Roengchai Tansuchat1, Chia-Lin Chang2, Michael McAleer3 January, 2010 Abstract: This paper investigates the conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil returns and stock index returns. Daily returns from 2 January 1998 to 4 November 2009 of the crude oil spot, forward and futures prices from the WTI and Brent markets, and the FTSE100, NYSE, Dow Jones and S&P500 index returns, are analysed using the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990), VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer, Hoti and Chan (2008), and DCC model of Engle (2002). Based on the CCC model, the estimates of conditional correlations for returns across markets are very low, and some are not statistically significant, which means the conditional shocks are correlated only in the same market and not across markets. However, the DCC estimates of the conditional correlations are always significant. This result makes it clear that the...
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...BOFIT Discussion Papers 19 • 2011 Zhichao Zhang, Nan Shi and Xiaoli Zhang China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification Bank of Finland, BOFIT Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT Discussion Papers Editor-in-Chief Laura Solanko BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2011 23.7.2011 Zhichao Zhang, Nan Shi and Xiaoli Zhang: China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification ISBN 978-952- 462-714-6 ISSN 1456-5889 (online) This paper can be downloaded without charge from http://www.bof.fi/bofit Suomen Pankki Helsinki 2011 BOFIT- Institute for Economies in Transition Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2011 Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Tiivistelmä ........................................................................................................................................... 4 1 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 5 Theoretical model ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3 Policy goal .................................................................................................................... 12 Trade...
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...1 The Impact of China-Africa Trade Relations: The Case of Angola By Dr Ron Sandrey Associate Trade Law Centre of Southern Africa Prepared for the African Economic Research Consortium Nairobi, Kenya November 2009 2 Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Hannah Edinger, Research Fellow, China Africa Network, Centre for Business and Academic Research, Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria; and Senior Manager & Head of Research at Frontier Advisory, for comments on a previous draft, and for research and editorial assistance. The author would also like to express gratitude to the African Economic Research Consortium for commissioning the research paper. 3 Table of Contents 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………. 4 1.1 Problem Statement…………………………………………………………………... 4 1.2 Objectives of Report……………………………………………………………….… 5 1.3 Overview of Report……………………………………………………………….….. 7 2. Background………………………………………………………………….… 9 2.1 Angola & China Country Snapshots and the background trading relationship………………………………………………………………………….… 9 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.1.4 2.1.5 2.1.6 2.1.7 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 Angola – A Country Snapshot………………………………………………………….…. China – A Country Snapshot……………………………………………………………… Angola’s trade profile………………………………………………………………………. Angola’s trade profile with China…………………………………………………………. Angola’s other trade partners……………………………………………………………… Who are the gainers and losers from Angola’s increasing merchandise trade flows...
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